Beijing has a powerful tool for responding to President-elect Donald J. Trump’s threatened new tariffs on Chinese goods: It could start a currency war, a step that poses formidable risks for China as well as the United States.

北京在回应候任总统特朗普对中国商品加征新关税的威胁上有一个强有力的工具：它可以发动一场货币战，这样做会给中美双方都带来难以对付的风险。

Letting China’s currency, the renminbi, lose value against the dollar would be a tried and true answer to tariffs. A cheaper renminbi would make Chinese exports less expensive for overseas buyers, mitigating the harm to China’s competitiveness from Mr. Trump’s tariffs. Beijing did just that in 2018 and 2019, when Mr. Trump imposed tariffs in his first term.

让人民币对美元贬值是应对关税的一个屡试不爽的办法。人民币贬值会使中国出口产品对海外买家变得更便宜，从而减轻特朗普的关税对中国商品竞争力的损害。特朗普在第一个任期加征关税后，中国政府曾在2018年和2019年这样做过。

A cheaper renminbi could partially or entirely offset the effects of the extra 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods that Mr. Trump said on Monday he would order on his first day in office. He also said he would slap a 25 percent tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, while demanding that they, along with China, halt flows of drugs to the United States.

让人民币贬值能部分或全部抵消对中国商品加征10%额外关税的影响，特朗普周一表示，他将在上任的第一天下令加征关税。他还表示，将对来自加拿大和墨西哥的商品征收25%的关税，同时要求这两个国家以及中国停止让毒品涌入美国。

A strategic devaluation of China’s currency, which is tightly controlled by the country’s central bank, could allow Beijing to supercharge its powerful export machine. China’s overall volume of exports to all destinations already surged nearly 12 percent in the first nine months of this year versus last year. China is poised for further gains, as its banks step up lending to build new factories.

受中国央行严格控制的人民币战略性贬值，能使中国政府大幅增强本国已经强劲的出口行业。中国今年前九个月出口到世界所有地方的商品总量同比增长了近12%。随着中国的银行对建设新工厂加大贷款力度，中国的出口保持进一步增长的势头。

But allowing China’s currency to fall could endanger the country’s economy. Confronting a weaker renminbi, Chinese companies and affluent families might rush to shift money out of the country instead of investing at home.

但让人民币贬值也可能损害中国经济。中国的企业和富裕家庭可能会尽快把资金转移到国外，而不是在国内投资，以此来应对人民币贬值的问题。

A weaker exchange rate for the renminbi against the dollar could also hurt the Chinese public’s confidence, undermine consumer spending and erode share prices. It could also work at cross purposes to recent efforts by policymakers to shore up the economy, which has been slammed by a housing market collapse that has erased much of the savings of China’s middle class.

人民币兑美元汇率走弱也可能损害中国公众的信心，给消费者支出带来不良影响，令股价下跌。这也可能与政策制定者们最近为支撑经济所做的努力相矛盾，房地产市场崩溃已给中国经济造成沉重打击，抹去了中国中产阶级相当部分的财产。

上海的一个新住宅开发项目。中国房地产市场的崩溃已让中国中产阶级相当部分的财产化为乌有。

China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, drew international criticism when it suddenly devalued the renminbi in August 2015, and has been wary of allowing such an abrupt move again. Liu Ye, the head of the international department, said at a news conference on Friday that the central bank will “maintain the basic stability of the renminbi exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level.”

中国央行中国人民银行曾在2015年8月突然让人民币贬值，引发了国际社会的批评，那之后它一直对再次采取这种突然举动持谨慎态度。中国人民银行国际司负责人刘晔在上周五的记者会上说，“人民币汇率将在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。”

But China is deeply hostile to any new tariffs. Responding to Mr. Trump’s threat on Monday, the Chinese embassy in Washington said: “China believes that China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation is mutually beneficial in nature. No one will win a trade war or a tariff war.”

但中国极力反对任何新关税。中国驻美国大使馆周一在回应特朗普的威胁时表示：“中美经贸合作本质上是互利的。没有人会在贸易战或关税战中获胜。”

Chinese companies have substantially strengthened their manufacturing capacity in other countries in recent years, building factories that assemble components from China into finished goods for sale in the United States and elsewhere. This has allowed some of them to bypass tariffs imposed by the United States during the first Trump administration.

近年来，中国企业在他国进行生产的能力已大幅增强，企业在国外建厂，把来自中国的零部件组装成成品，然后销售到美国和其他国家。这使一些中国企业得以绕过美国在特朗普第一个任期内对中国商品征收的关税。

Many Chinese business owners have been moving money overseas in recent weeks to further beef up their foreign operations and make sure that China can maintain robust exports even if Mr. Trump imposes additional tariffs.

许多中国企业主已在近几周里将资金转移到海外，以进一步加强他们的海外业务，确保即使特朗普加征关税，中国也能保持强劲出口。

Wang Shouwen, China’s chief international trade negotiator, speaking at a news conference on Friday, promised strong support for exporters. He said that China would provide more trade financing and export insurance for these companies.

中国国际贸易谈判代表王受文在上周五的记者会上承诺大力支持出口商。他说，中国将为这些公司提供更多的外贸融资和出口信用保险。

China’s exports to the United States have stayed strong despite the 2018 and 2019 tariffs, as many Chinese companies have broken their exports into shipments small enough to avoid tariffs or tracking by customs officials. China has also increased exports rapidly to Southeast Asia and Mexico, where goods are then often processed and reshipped to the United States with little or no tariffs collected.

尽管美国在2018年和2019年对中国商品加征了关税，但中国对美国的出口仍保持强劲，因为许多中国公司将出口商品分成足够小的批次发出，以避免关税或海关官员的追查。中国还迅速增加了对东南亚和墨西哥的出口，出口到这些地区的商品往往在经过加工后，在几乎不收关税的情况下转运到美国。

In the days after Mr. Trump’s election victory this month, the value of the renminbi slipped about 2 percent against the dollar. It has stabilized in the past week at around 7.25 renminbi to the dollar. Many other currencies have also weakened against the dollar since the election, not just the renminbi. The Mexican peso and Canadian dollar tumbled after Mr. Trump targeted both countries with potential tariffs.

特朗普本月赢得总统大选后的几天里，人民币兑美元的汇率下跌了约2%。汇率在过去一周大致保持在1美元兑7.25元人民币的水平。不只是人民币，自美国大选以来，许多其他国家的货币也相对于美元有所贬值。特朗普宣布可能对墨西哥和加拿大征收关税后，这两个国家的货币（比索和加元）兑美元的汇率都大幅走弱。

The People’s Bank of China sets a daily band of exchange rates, buying and selling currencies in cooperation with state-controlled banks to keep the renminbi in a narrow range. Some currency market observers say that the state banks may be selling dollars now and using the money to buy renminbi, to preserve the current exchange rate.

中国人民银行每个工作日公布当日人民币外汇交易的中间价，并与国有银行合作进行外汇买卖，将人民币汇率保持在一个狭窄的区间里。一些观察货币市场的人士说，中国的国有银行目前可能在抛售美元，购入人民币，以维持当前的汇率。

Arthur Kroeber, a founding partner of Gavekal, an economic research firm, said that the renminbi could fall another 9 or 10 percent if the United States imposes steep tariffs on Chinese goods. That would mean nearly 8 renminbi would be required to buy a single dollar, a level not seen since 2006.

经济研究公司佳富龙洲的创始合伙人葛艺豪(Arthur Kroeber)表示，如果美国对中国商品加征高额关税的话，人民币的汇率可能会再跌9%或10%。这意味着需要近8元人民币才能购买1美元，这是自2006年以来的最高水平。

But many other analysts are skeptical that China would tolerate such a steep decline in the renminbi. They predict a floor for the currency at 7.3 to 7.5 per dollar.

但许多其他分析人士对中国能否容忍人民币如此大幅贬值持怀疑态度。他们预测人民币兑美元汇率的下限为7.3至7.5。

China for many years was willing to allow the renminbi to remain weak to power its exports. But the central bank has begun to face an unusual ideological obstacle to any sharp weakening of the currency. At a rare gathering in January of Politburo members, ministers and provincial leaders, Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, gave a speech describing his vision for “high-quality financial development.”

多年来，中国为了推动出口一直愿意让人民币汇率保持疲软。但央行已开始面临一种不同寻常的意识形态障碍，阻止人民币大幅贬值。在今年1月召开的一次由政治局委员和省部级领导参加的罕见会议上，中国最高领导人习近平在讲话中描述了他的“高质量金融发展”愿景。

Mr. Xi said that maintaining a strong currency was necessary for China to be a financial power, along with other key elements like a strong central bank and financial institutions.

习近平说，拥有强大的货币是中国建设金融强国的必要条件，其他关键因素包括强大的中央银行和金融机构。

中国人民银行的一名官员上周五说，“人民币汇率将在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。”

That speech was incorporated into a book published under Mr. Xi’s name, injecting a strong renminbi into the country’s guiding ideology.

这篇讲话已被收进一本以习近平名义出版的书中，将强大的货币纳入了指导国家的意识形态里。

When China allowed its currency to slide during the first Trump administration, the White House discussed deliberately weakening the dollar in 2019 as a response, but Mr. Trump refrained from doing so.

中国在特朗普的第一个任期内允许人民币贬值后，白宫曾在2019年讨论故意压低美元作为回应，但特朗普没有那样做。

Currency policy is likely to be a priority in the new Trump administration: Mr. Trump’s choice for Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, is a hedge fund manager with decades of experience in currency trading. But he is better known for taking positions on the British pound and Japanese yen than the renminbi.

货币政策很可能成为新一届特朗普政府的优先事项：特朗普的财政部长人选斯科特·贝森特是对冲基金经理，有数十年的货币交易经验。但相比于人民币，他在押注英镑和日元上更有名。

There is an obvious temptation for China to push the currency weaker before Mr. Trump takes over, as precautionary protection against tariffs. But Brad Setser, a former official in the Obama and Biden administrations who has long specialized in China’s currency policies, expressed doubt that Beijing would do so.

中国显然有在特朗普就任总统之前推动人民币贬值的诱惑，将其作为对加征关税的防范措施。但长期研究中国货币政策的专家布拉德·塞瑟对北京是否会这样做表示怀疑，他曾在奥巴马和拜登的政府任职。

“It clearly runs the risk of provoking an angry Trump administration,” and could prompt Mr. Trump to set tariffs even higher, Mr. Setser said.

“这显然有激怒特朗普政府的风险”，并可能导致特朗普将关税设定在更高的水平，塞瑟说。