茉莉花新闻网

中華青年思想與行動的聚合地

面对第二轮中美贸易恶战,北京已做好准备

KEITH BRADSHER

2024年12月5日

山东一家为汽车行业生产半导体的制造商的工人。 Future Publishing, via Getty Images

When Donald J. Trump fired the opening shots in a trade war during his first term, Chinese officials often took days to respond and Chinese businesses followed every threat with alarm.

当特朗普在第一个任期打响贸易战的头几枪时,中国官员往往需要数天时间才能做出回应,中国企业对每一次威胁都感到不安。

But this week, after the Biden administration broadened its restrictions on advanced technology that could be sent to China, Beijing announced sweeping retaliation in a single day. The country’s stock market investors mostly shrugged at the Biden administration’s action.

但本周,在拜登政府扩大了对可能出口到中国的先进技术的限制后,北京在一天内就宣布了全面的报复措施。中国股市投资者对拜登政府的举动大多并不在意。

And on Wednesday, General Motors, a onetime cornerstone of American industrial might, said it was taking a $5 billion hit to profit to recognize that it was no longer able to adequately compete with Chinese carmakers.

周三,曾经是美国工业实力基石的通用汽车承认不再能够与中国汽车制造商进行充分竞争,因而将承受50亿美元的利润损失。

The fast-moving developments have underlined how far China has come as an industrial superpower, and its readiness for a potentially bruising battle with the second Trump administration. China now has a manufacturing sector that is larger than those of the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea and Britain put together. It produces some of the world’s most advanced technology.

这些快速发展的事态凸显出中国作为工业超级大国所取得的巨大成就,以及它已经做好准备,与特朗普第二任政府展开一场潜在的恶战。中国现在的制造业规模超过了美国、德国、日本、韩国和英国的总和,并生产一些世界上最先进的技术设备。

There are a few areas in which China has not caught up with the United States, with the most advanced semiconductors perhaps being the most prominent. But in many other sectors, including all but the fastest semiconductors, its manufacturers are coming close to ending their dependence on American supplies.

在少数领域,中国还没有赶上美国,其中最突出的可能是最先进的半导体。但在许多其他领域,包括除了速度最快的半导体以外的所有领域,中国制造商正接近结束对美国供应的依赖。

That was evident in the announcement on Tuesday by four government-linked trade associations that urged Chinese companies making everything from cars to communications equipment to be wary of buying any more American computer chips.

本周二,四家与政府有关联的行业协会发表声明,敦促制造从汽车到通信设备等各种产品的中国企业谨慎采购美国电脑芯片。

“The Chinese chip industry is stronger now than eight years ago, so we can make such a strong declaration,” said Hu Xijin, an influential nationalistic commentator in China. “Eight years ago, such a declaration was unthinkable,” said Mr. Hu, who has nearly 25 million followers on social media.

“中国芯片产业现在比八年前更强大了,所以我们可以发表如此强烈的声明,”中国颇具影响力的民族主义评论员胡锡进表示。“八年前,这样的声明是不可想象的,”在社交媒体上拥有近2500万粉丝的胡锡进说。

Beijing’s other response to Washington on Tuesday, involving minerals, also highlighted China’s new willingness to publicly and directly confront foreign trading partners. The Ministry of Commerce, in a statement on its website, said it had banned with immediate effect the export of four critical minerals to the United States that were mined or processed mainly in China.

周二,北京对华盛顿的另一项回应涉及矿产,也凸显出中国公开和直接对抗外国贸易伙伴的新意愿。商务部在其网站上发表声明称,已禁止向美国出口四种主要在中国开采或加工的关键矿产,立即生效。

When China imposed a two-month export embargo on rare earth metals to Japan in 2010, by contrast, it did so in complete secrecy. The Commerce Ministry called in representatives of two dozen companies, told them not to export and warned them that they would lose their export licenses if they told the news media.

相比之下,当中国在2010年对日本实施为期两个月的稀土金属出口禁运时,是在完全保密的情况下进行的。商务部召集了二十多家公司的代表,告诉他们不要出口,并警告他们如果向新闻媒体透露消息,就会失去出口许可证。

04china US 02 wpmq master1050去年上海车展上的通用雪佛兰展台。

The most recent sign of China’s industrial muscle came in the profit charges by General Motors, which the company has incurred while restructuring its China joint venture with SAIC Motor. When Mr. Trump took office in early 2017, the Chinese ventures of G.M. and Volkswagen were locked in a long-running battle for leadership in China while domestic brands lagged far behind.

中国工业实力的最新迹象是通用汽车公司在重组与上汽集团的中国合资企业时的利润亏损公告。2017年初特朗普上任时,通用汽车和大众汽车的在华合资企业为争夺中国市场的领导地位而展开了一场旷日持久的争夺战,中国国内品牌则远远落在后面。

But G.M. brands that used to rank among the leaders in China sales, like Buick, Chevrolet and Cadillac, no longer even rank among the top 20. BYD, a Chinese electric car manufacturer based in Shenzhen, is now the best-selling brand in China and is rapidly stepping up exports to the rest of the world.

但是,别克、雪佛兰和凯迪拉克等曾经在中国销量名列前茅的通用品牌,甚至连前20名都排不进了。总部位于深圳的中国电动汽车制造商比亚迪目前是中国最畅销的品牌,并正在迅速扩大对世界其他地区的出口。

When G.M. opened an assembly line in Shanghai in 1998, the company showed off the several dozen robots it had imported from outside China. But when Volkswagen — Germany’s signature automaker — opened an electric car assembly plant last year in Hefei, China, it ordered just one robot imported from its home country. VW bought the other 1,074 robots from a factory in Shanghai.

1998年,通用汽车在上海开设了一条装配线,展示了从中国以外进口的几十台机器人。但是,当德国标志性的汽车制造商大众汽车去年在中国合肥开设一家电动汽车装配厂时,它只订购了一台从德国进口的机器人。大众从上海的一家工厂购买了另外1074台机器人

And while G.M.’s decision to open an assembly line in Shanghai in the late 1990s to build 100,000 Buicks a year was a big bet on the Chinese market, BYD is now building an industrial complex in Hefei with the capacity to make 1.5 million cars a year.

上世纪90年代末,通用汽车决定在上海开设一条装配线,每年生产10万辆别克汽车,这是对中国市场的一次重大押注,现在,比亚迪正在合肥建设一个年产150万辆的工业园区。

China has used tariffs and other fiscal policies to help its homegrown companies gain an advantage: It charges taxes totaling as much as 100 percent on imported cars and sport utility vehicles with large gasoline engines, a category in which G.M. is strong. By contrast, electric cars from Chinese manufacturers face a tax rate of only 13 percent.

中国利用关税和其他财政政策帮助本土企业获得优势:它对进口的大型汽油发动机汽车和运动型多用途车征收高达100%的关税,而这正是通用汽车的优势领域。相比之下,中国制造商生产的电动汽车的税率仅为13%。

So G.M. and its Detroit rivals have long been unable to sell more than a trickle of cars from the United States in China. Now even their sales of gasoline-powered cars from factories inside China have plunged as more than half of Chinese buyers choose battery-electric or plug-in hybrid cars.

因此,通用汽车及其底特律的竞争对手们长期以来只能在中国销售少量的美国汽车。现在,由于超过一半的中国消费者选择电池电动或插电式混合动力汽车,美国公司在中国工厂生产的汽油动力汽车的销量也大幅下降。

The big question now is how the Trump administration will respond to China’s assertive stance. For decades, China has fairly consistently sold about $4 worth of goods to the United States for every $1 worth of goods that it buys. That imbalance partly reflects Beijing’s many tariffs and informal limits on imports, as well as an enormous government effort during nearly two decades to replace imported manufactured goods with domestic production.

现在最大的问题是特朗普政府将如何回应中国的强硬立场。几十年来,中国从美国每购买价值一美元的商品,就向美国出售价值四美元的商品。这种不平衡在一定程度上反映了中国政府对进口商品征收的多种关税和非正式限制,以及政府在近20年里用国产取代进口所做的巨大努力。

Overall Sino-American trade has grown rapidly. So the lopsided ratio has translated into a large American trade deficit.

总的来说,中美贸易增长迅速。因此,一边倒的比例转化为巨大的美国贸易逆差。

China’s overall trade surplus in manufactured goods, mainly but not entirely with the United States, now equals a tenth of the country’s entire economic output. That surplus has created millions of factory jobs in China. But it also means China has more to lose than the United States does in a broad trade war.

中国在制成品方面的总体贸易顺差(主要但不完全是对美贸易)现在相当于中国整个经济产出的十分之一。这种盈余在中国创造了数以百万计的工厂就业机会。但这也意味着,在一场广泛的贸易战中,中国比美国损失更大。

Chinese officials appear to be preparing for a world in which they do not seek confrontation with the United States, but are prepared for the two countries to pursue their own economic paths. Their preferred term for that course: “peaceful coexistence.”

中国官员似乎正在为这样一个世界做准备:在这个世界里,他们不寻求与美国对抗,而是让两国各自走自己的经济道路。他们更喜欢用“和平共处”来形容这一进程。

同类信息

查看全部

茉莉花论坛作为一个开放社区,允许您发表任何符合社区规定的文章和评论。

茉莉花新闻网

        中国茉莉花革命网始创于2011年2月20日,受阿拉伯之春的感召,大家共同组织、发起了中国茉莉花革命。后由数名义工无偿坚持至今,并发展成为广受翻墙网民欢迎的新闻聚合网站并提供论坛服务。

新闻汇总

邮件订阅

输入您的邮件地址:

linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram