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鲁比奥驳斥情报报告,坚称美国已摧毁伊朗核野心

DAVID E. SANGER, TYLER PAGER

2025年6月26日

President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio made their most detailed case yet on Wednesday at a NATO summit in the Netherlands for why they believe the American attack on Iran dealt a fatal blow to its nuclear ambitions, pushing back on the findings of a U.S. intelligence report and more cautious statements from international nuclear inspectors.

特朗普总统和国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥周三在荷兰举行的北约峰会上作出了迄今最详尽的阐述,坚称美国对伊朗的打击行动已摧毁了它的核野心,驳斥了美国情报报告和国际核查人员更为谨慎的评估。

While Mr. Trump largely repeated his assertions that Iran’s nuclear facilities were “obliterated,” Mr. Rubio stepped in with the first description of why he thought the attack had set back the Iranians’ progress for years rather than by only a few months, as a preliminary Defense Intelligence Agency report said. His argument centered on evidence that a “conversion facility” — which is key to converting nuclear fuel from a gas into the form needed to produce a nuclear weapon — has been destroyed.

尽管特朗普基本上是在重复他关于伊朗核设施被“彻底摧毁”的主张,但鲁比奥首次详细说明了他为何认为这次袭击使伊朗的核项目进展倒退了数年,而非国防情报局初步报告所称的仅仅倒退数月。他的论点集中在有证据表明一个“转化设施”已被摧毁,而这个设施是核燃料从气体转化为制造核武器所需形式的关键。

The question of whether Iran could recover from the strike on Sunday morning dominated the meeting of the 32 NATO nations. It overshadowed a major accomplishment for Mr. Trump: an agreement among most of the allies, with the notable exception of Spain, to spend 5 percent of their gross domestic product on defense within a decade as they face down Russian military aggression. Mr. Trump had demanded the increase and celebrated the moment, telling reporters during an hourlong news conference, “I began pushing for additional commitments in 2017.”

北约32国此次峰会的焦点集中在伊朗能否从周日凌晨的打击中恢复。这甚至盖过特朗普的一项重大成就:除西班牙这一显著例外,多数成员国同意未来十年将国防支出提升至国内生产总值的5%,以应对俄罗斯的军事威胁。增加国防开支是应特朗普的要求,他在长达一小时的新闻发布会上庆祝了这一时刻,他对记者表示:“我从2017年开始就推动各国作出更多承诺了。”

But his anger over the disclosure of the intelligence report on the effects of the strike against Iran was palpable. Mr. Trump accused news organizations that questioned how much damage had been done to Iran’s program of betraying “these brave patriots, these incredible fliers” who streaked halfway across the globe from Missouri to bomb the prime target, an enrichment plant called Fordo buried deep in a mountain. He and other administration officials repeatedly argued that because the attack had been executed so flawlessly, it was offensive to even question the results.

但显而易见的是,他对打击效果的情报报告遭到泄露感到震怒。特朗普指责那些质疑伊朗核项目受损程度的新闻机构背叛了“这些勇敢的爱国者,这些了不起的飞行员”,他们从密苏里州横跨半个地球,轰炸了主要目标——一个深埋在山中的名为福尔多的铀浓缩工厂。他和其他政府官员一再强调,由于打击行动执行得如此完美,对结果的质疑实属一种冒犯。

Mr. Trump also announced on Wednesday the United States and Iran would hold talks next week, though he provided no details about the participants or the purpose of the engagement. Diplomats from both countries had met repeatedly in recent months to try to negotiate over the future of Iran’s nuclear program, but Iran canceled a round after Israel launched strikes against it on June 13, and the two sides have not met since.

特朗普周三还宣布,美伊将于下周举行会谈,但没有提供参与者或会谈目的等细节。最近几个月,两国的外交官曾多次会晤,试图就伊朗核计划的未来进行谈判,但伊朗在以色列6月13日对其发动袭击后取消了当时的一轮会谈,双方再未会面。

Iran is also threatening to stop cooperating with international inspectors, which would limit visibility into the damage done.

伊朗还威胁停止与国际核查人员合作,这将限制对毁伤情况的直观评估。

Yet, the president also downplayed the importance of a diplomatic agreement with Tehran over its nuclear program, expressing confidence that Iran would not pursue a nuclear weapon after the U.S. attacks.

然而,总统也淡化了与德黑兰就其核计划达成外交协议的重要性,表示相信在美国袭击后,伊朗不会寻求发展核武器。

“We may sign an agreement,” he said. “I don’t know. To me, I don’t think it’s that necessary. I mean, they had a war they fought. Now they’re going back to their world. I don’t care if I have an agreement or not.”

“协议或许会签,”他说。“我不知道。对我来说,也不是非签不可。我的意思是,他们刚打了一仗。现在要回归正轨了。签不签协议,我根本不在乎。”

Iranian officials had indicated a day earlier that they were willing to re-engage in diplomacy.

而伊朗官员前日表示愿重返谈判桌。

But by the end of his trip to the Netherlands, Mr. Trump seemed as focused on proving he has “obliterated” Iran’s sites as he once was on proving he had the largest inauguration crowd. As part of his effort to counter the preliminary intelligence report from the Pentagon, Mr. Trump, during his news conference, read part of a statement from the Israel Atomic Energy Commission.

但到荷兰之行结束时,特朗普似乎像他曾经执着于证明自己拥有最大规模的就职典礼人群一样,专注于证明他已经“彻底摧毁”了伊朗的核设施。为反驳五角大楼的初步评估报告,他在记者会宣读了以色列原子能委员会声明的一部分。

“The devastating U.S. strike on Fordo destroyed the site’s critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility totally inoperable,” the president said. The statement, which the White House had distributed earlier, did not contain the word “totally,” but Mr. Trump inserted it.

“美国对福尔多的毁灭性打击摧毁了该基地的关键基础设施,并使浓缩设施完全无法运行,”总统说。白宫此前分发的声明中没有“totally”(完全)这个词,但特朗普自行加了上去。

周二拍摄的伊朗福尔多铀浓缩设施卫星图像。

Administration officials also denied that Iran had moved its stockpile of 880 pounds of near-bomb-grade fuel from storage areas in the ancient city of Isfahan and at other plants in Iran. Some American intelligence officials say they believe it was moved, and Rafael Mariano Grossi, the secretary general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, part of the United Nations, said Iranian officials had told him the stockpile was going to be moved to avoid threats from Mr. Trump. On Wednesday, he said he did not know its whereabouts.

政府官员还否认伊朗已将其储存在古城伊斯法罕和境内其他工厂的约400公斤近武器级核燃料转移,而联合国的国际原子能机构总干事拉斐尔·马里亚诺·格罗西表示,伊朗官员曾告诉他,为了避免特朗普的威胁,这些库存将被转移。周三,他说他不知道这些库存的下落。

Moving the stockpile could have left Iran with a hidden supply that it could, with further enrichment, use for weapons.

若进行了转移,伊朗或留下了一批库存,经进一步浓缩后用于核武器的制造。

Mr. Trump said he did know where the supply was. “We think we hit them so hard and so fast they didn’t get to move,” he told reporters, without citing any evidence. “It’s covered with granite, concrete and steel,” he said.

特朗普表示,他确实知道这些库存的下落。“我们认为我们的打击又快又猛,他们没有来得及转移,”他对记者说,但没有拿出任何证据。“被埋在花岗岩、混凝土和钢铁下面了,”他说。

Near the end of his news conference, as Mr. Trump appeared to become increasingly fed up with questions about his own administration’s intelligence, he turned the lectern over to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, whose department’s intelligence agency had produced the assessment. After denouncing the news media, Mr. Hegseth did not dispute the accounts of the intelligence report that appeared in The New York Times and CNN, but emphasized that it had been produced with “low confidence.”

记者会尾声,面对媒体就内阁评估情报的连番提问,越来越不耐烦的特朗普将讲台让予国防部长皮特·海格塞斯,正是其麾下情报机构主导了此次评估。在对媒体痛斥一番后,海格塞斯未反驳《纽约时报》与CNN披露的报告内容,但强调该报告仅属“低置信度”研判。

“So if you want to make an assessment of what happened at Fordo, you better get a big shovel and go really deep because Iran’s nuclear program is obliterated,” he said.

“所以,如果你想评估福尔多发生了什么,你最好拿一把大铲子,得掘地三尺,因为伊朗的核计划已经被彻底摧毁了,”他说。

The director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, also insisted on Wednesday that the president was correct in saying that Iran’s facilities had been destroyed. She cited “new intelligence” but gave no additional details. Like Mr. Hegseth, she complained about news reports describing the intelligence document.

国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德周三也坚称总统关于伊朗设施已被摧毁的说法是正确的。她提到了“新情报”,却没有提供更多细节。像海格塞斯一样,她也对相关新闻报道予以指责。

Mr. Rubio was the only one who approached the question with specific reference to facilities that Israel and the United States hit, and which would cripple Iran’s ability to make a bomb even if it had sufficient highly enriched uranium secreted away. His argument centered on evidence that the conversion facility had been destroyed, along with a laboratory to make the fuel into uranium metal to make a warhead.

只有鲁比奥结合具体打击目标展开了分析:即便伊朗暗藏高浓铀,美以摧毁的核设施已重创其制造核弹的能力。其核心证据指向转化设施以及一个将燃料转化为铀金属以制造弹头的实验室已被摧毁

Israel reported hitting the facility and an associated laboratory for turning the fuel to metal, and The Times described the hit at the time. Independent analysts say they believe the plant was severely damaged.

以色列军方确认击中该转化设施及配套的燃料铀金属转化实验室,《纽约时报》当时也报道了此次打击。独立分析机构判定,该设施遭严重损毁。

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