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从铁路到港口,中国欲加强亚洲贸易枢纽地位

KEITH BRADSHER

2024年9月24日

中国修建的一条通往东南亚国家老挝的铁路线,是它为建立一个更加以中国为中心的全球秩序而开展的项目之一。 Lauren Decicca/Getty Images

China has made several moves in recent months to advance its ambitious aim to become the trade and transportation hub of Asia.

近几个月来,中国采取了几项举措,推进其成为亚洲贸易和交通枢纽的宏伟目标。

To its west, China has agreed to build a rail line across Central Asia. Beijing also said it would help Vietnam plan three rail lines leading to the countries’ shared border. And China is trying to persuade Russia and North Korea to let it reopen a long-closed port on the Sea of Japan.

在其西部,中国已同意修建一条穿越中亚的铁路线。北京还表示,将帮助越南规划三条通往两国共同边界的铁路线。中国正试图说服俄罗斯和朝鲜允许其重新开放一个长期关闭的日本海港口。

c24china trade hub master1050 The New York Times

If successful, the plans would give China closer ties to the economies of Northeast and Southeast Asia, the Mideast and even the Arctic, the latest steps in its 11-year-old Belt and Road Initiative to create a more China-centered global order.

如果成功,这些计划将使中国与东北亚、东南亚、中东甚至北极地区的经济建立更紧密的联系,这是中国发起了11年的“一带一路”倡议的最新举措,旨在创造一个更加以中国为中心的全球秩序。

Each of the efforts, in varying ways, faces obstacles. The nation’s top leader, Xi Jinping, will need close cooperation from border countries, some of which are politically volatile, like Kyrgyzstan, or internationally isolated, like North Korea. Neighboring countries that have long been wary of China, like Vietnam, will need to be reassured.

每一项努力都以不同的方式面临障碍。中国最高领导人习近平需要与边境国家密切合作,其中一些国家政治上并不稳定,比如吉尔吉斯斯坦,还有一些国家在国际上被孤立,比如朝鲜。越南等长期对中国心存戒备的邻国也需要得到安抚。“The problem is not just having enough engineers and workers, but enough with the right technical training and background to stay and work in Kyrgyzstan,” said Niva Yau, a specialist on the country at the Atlantic Council, a research group in Washington.

华盛顿研究机构大西洋理事会的吉尔吉斯斯坦问题专家邱芷恩表示,“问题不仅在于有没有足够的工程师和工人,还在于有没有足够的、受过适当技术培训和背景的人留在吉尔吉斯斯坦工作。”

But the collective scope of the projects shows how Mr. Xi is wielding infrastructure to cement China’s role as the trade and geopolitical center of Asia.

但从这些项目的整体规模可以看出,习近平正在利用基础设施建设,巩固中国作为亚洲贸易和地缘政治中心的地位。

China agreed on June 6 to a pact that gave it 51 percent ownership of the planned rail line, with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan splitting the rest. But while Kyrgyzstan said construction would start in August, it has already been delayed.

6月6日,中国同意了一项协议,将拥有计划中铁路线51%的所有权,其余部分由在吉尔吉斯斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦之间分配。但是,虽然吉尔吉斯斯坦表示将于8月开工,工程现在已经推迟。

The rail line would start in Kashgar, in an impoverished corner of China’s far western Xinjiang region. It would then traverse the nearly roadless mountains of southern Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan.

这条铁路线的起点是位于中国遥远西部新疆地区的贫困角落喀什。然后,它将穿越吉尔吉斯斯坦南部几乎没有道路的山区,到达乌兹别克斯坦。

The line’s terminus in Uzbekistan, Samarkand, is the hub of a Soviet-era rail network that crosses Central Asia to link Russia to Afghanistan and Iran, and beyond Iran to Europe. The planned line from Kashgar to Samarkand would give China easier access to Afghanistan and its copper and iron ore reserves. The line would also help China sell cars and other manufactured goods to Iran by rail in exchange for oil, which is shipped to China by sea.

这条铁路线的终点站是乌兹别克斯坦的撒马尔罕,那里是苏联时代铁路网的枢纽,该铁路网穿越中亚,将俄罗斯与阿富汗和伊朗连接起来,并越过伊朗通往欧洲。计划中从喀什到撒马尔罕的铁路线将使中国更容易进入阿富汗,得到其铜矿和铁矿储备。这条铁路还将帮助中国通过铁路向伊朗出售汽车和其他制成品,以换取通过海路运往中国的石油。

China now consistently buys 90 percent or more of Iran’s oil exports each month, said Andon Pavlov, senior refining and oil products analyst at Kpler, a firm in Vienna that specializes in tracking Iran’s oil shipments. Most other nations refuse to buy Iranian oil because of international sanctions related to the country’s nuclear weapons program, with the result that Iranian oil sells at a considerable discount to world prices.

位于维也纳专门追踪伊朗石油运输的公司Kpler的高级炼油和石油产品分析师安东·帕夫洛夫表示,中国现在每月购买伊朗石油出口的90%或更多。由于与伊朗核武器计划有关的国际制裁,大多数其他国家拒绝购买伊朗石油,其结果是伊朗石油以比世界价格低得多的价格出售。

03 qgvj master10508 月,中越两国最高领导人习近平(左)和苏林在北京。

More than 2,000 miles away from the planned Central Asian rail line in Kyrgyzstan, three more rail lines are planned to extend from China’s southeastern border deep into Vietnam. They could also produce economic gains.

在距离计划中的吉尔吉斯斯坦中亚铁路线3000多公里的地方,还有三条铁路线计划从中国东南部边境延伸到越南。它们也可以带来经济收益。

Multinational corporations and Chinese companies have shifted the final assembly of many products, including solar panels and smartphones, to Vietnam to bypass trade barriers against Chinese goods erected by the United States and other countries. But the chemicals, components and engineering for many of these products still come from China.

跨国公司和中国公司已将太阳能电池板和智能手机等许多产品的最终组装转移到越南,以绕过美国和其他国家对中国商品设置的贸易壁垒。但其中许多产品的化学品、零部件和工程技术仍来自中国。

That has created demand for closer transportation links between China and Vietnam, beyond the highways and shipping lanes that already connect them. For now, China’s involvement in helping Vietnam construct its train lines is expected to be limited. In a joint statement after Vietnam’s new leader, To Lam, visited Beijing last month, the countries said China would assist in planning for the lines.

因此,除了已经连接两国的高速公路和航道外,中国和越南之间还需要更紧密的交通联系。目前,中国在帮助越南建设铁路方面的参与预计是有限的。越南新领导人苏林上个月访问北京,两国在联合声明中表示,中国将协助越南规划火车线路。

The toughest project for China, but one with a potentially big payoff, lies in trying to secure access to the Sea of Japan and the Pacific Ocean via the Tumen River.

对中国来说,最艰难的项目是通过图们江确保通往日本海和太平洋的通道,但这个项目可能会带来巨大的回报。

In the mid-19th century, Russia seized from China a large area of Siberia, including a coastal strip of land that runs south to North Korea and obstructs northeastern China’s access to the ocean. The Tumen River flows along more than 300 miles of China’s border with North Korea, but the last nine miles of it lie between Russia and North Korea. A low railroad bridge across the river, which the Soviet Union hurriedly built during the Korean War to haul supplies, has blocked all but fairly small boats ever since.

19世纪中期,俄罗斯从中国手中夺取了西伯利亚的大片地区,其中包括向南延伸至朝鲜的沿海地带,这就封锁了中国东北部的出海口。图们江流经中朝边境约500公里的区域,但最后14公里位于俄罗斯和朝鲜之间。在朝鲜战争期间,苏联匆忙修建了一座横跨江面的低矮铁路桥,用于运送补给,从那以后,除了相当小的船只外,其他船只都无法通行。

Replacing that bridge with a taller one that would allow oceangoing ships to use the river has long been the dream of Chinese leaders. The goal is to link the Pacific Ocean with a port in Hunchun, an otherwise landlocked Chinese city a few miles up the river. Some residents of Hunchun, like Zhao Hongwei, a real estate investor, share that dream.

长期以来,用一座更高的桥来取代这座桥,让远洋船只可以使用河道一直是中国领导人的梦想。其目标是将太平洋与珲春的一个港口连接起来,珲春是一个内陆城市,位于图们江上游几公里处。珲春的一些居民也有同样的梦想,比如房地产投资者赵宏伟(音)。

“If there is a port, there can be trade, and we can become prosperous,” Mr. Zhao, 49, said.

“ 有港口,就有贸易,我们会兴旺起来,”49岁的赵宏伟说。

00CHINA TRADE HUB wcfj master1050从中国珲春可以看到朝鲜的山脉。下游约56公里处有一座低矮的桥,导致远洋船只无法抵达这座城市。

For Beijing, opening Tumen River traffic would ease trade to Russia, northern Japan and the northeast coast of the Korean Peninsula and even create new shipping lanes to Europe as climate change shrinks the Arctic ice cap.

对北京来说,图们江通航将缓解与俄罗斯、日本北部和朝鲜半岛东北海岸的贸易往来,甚至在气候变化使北极冰盖缩小之际,开辟通往欧洲的新航道。

“The Tumen River, as the only direct passage into the Sea of Japan, has extremely high strategic value,” said Li Lifan, executive director of Russian and Central Asian studies at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

上海社会科学院俄罗斯与中亚研究中心执行主任李立凡表示:“图们江作为通往日本海的唯一直接通道,具有极高的战略价值。”

With Russia expressing a new willingness in recent months to replace the bridge, the big question now is North Korea’s stance. Russian and North Korean officials signed their own agreement on June 20 to build a highway bridge over the Tumen River.

俄罗斯最近几个月表示愿意更换这座大桥,现在最大的问题是朝鲜的立场。俄罗斯和朝鲜官员于6月20日签署了它们之间在图们江上修建公路桥的协议。

Some analysts are skeptical that North Korea will agree to removing the low bridge. The country has long tried to pit China against Russia when it has suited its geopolitical needs. North Korea, which already faces China along almost its entire northern border, may not want to see Chinese influence on the last segment with Russia.

一些分析人士怀疑朝鲜是否会同意拆除这座低矮的桥梁。长期以来,只要符合其地缘政治需要,朝鲜都会设法让中国和俄罗斯保持对立。朝鲜的几乎整个北部边境都与中国相邻,它可能不希望看到中国在其与俄罗斯接壤的最后一段地区施加影响。

“Even if China and Russia reach agreement, they still have to persuade North Korea,” said Hoo Chiew Ping, a Korea specialist at the East Asian International Relations Caucus in Malaysia.

“即使中国和俄罗斯达成协议,他们仍然需要说服朝鲜,”马来西亚东亚国际关系核心小组的朝鲜问题专家胡志平(音)说。

Li You对本文有研究贡献。

Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长,此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长,以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。 点击查看更多关于他的信息。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

点击查看本文英文版。

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