The global system of container ships and tankers that move tens of billions of dollars of products around the world each day mostly functions fluidly and without notice. But in a few parts of the world, shipping lanes shrink to narrow straits or canals, geographical choke points where an isolated disruption can threaten to throw much of international trade out of whack.

由集装箱船和油轮组成的全球系统每天将数百亿美元的产品运往世界各地，该系统在大多数情况下运作流畅且不会为人所注意。但在世界上的一些地方，航线经过狭窄的海峡或运河，在这些地理上的咽喉要道，一起孤立的中断就可能会威胁到大部分国际贸易的正常运行。

One of those is the Taiwan Strait, a 100-mile-wide strip of water between Taiwan and mainland China, which has become a critical shipping lane for countries across the globe.

其中之一就是台湾海峡，这一台湾和中国大陆之间160公里的水域已成为全球各国的重要航道。

New research from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, has found that the strait is a conduit for more than a fifth of the world’s seaborne trade, with $2.45 trillion worth of energy, electronics, minerals and other goods transiting the channel in 2022, the most recent year for which data is available.

华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心的一项新研究发现，世界上超过五分之一的海运贸易都要通过这条海峡，2022年（可获得数据的最近一年），价值2.45万亿美元的能源、电子产品、矿产和其他货物从台湾海峡经过。

The findings are significant given that the strait is at the center of a geopolitical dispute between Taiwan and China, which views the island as part of its territory. A blockade or military action from China that halted traffic in the strait could have dramatic implications for the global flow of goods, and the Chinese economy in particular, the researchers say.

这一研究结果意义重大，因为台湾海峡是台湾和中国地缘政治争端的中心，中国认为台湾是其领土的一部分。研究人员表示，中国封锁或军事行动导致的海峡交通中断可能会对全球货物流动，尤其是中国经济产生巨大影响。

The estimates come at a moment when geopolitics is upending years of relative complacency about global trade dynamics. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as pandemic-era lockdowns, have reshuffled global trade patterns and alerted consumers to the idea that disruptions in one part of the world can directly affect economic activity in another.

上述估计出炉之际，地缘政治正在颠覆多年来人们对全球贸易态势相对满意的态度。乌克兰和中东的战争以及大流行时期的封锁已经改变了全球贸易格局，让消费者意识到，世界上一个地区的中断可能会直接影响到另一个地区的经济活动。

In a report also released Thursday, the World Trade Organization said that the pace of global trade has been ticking up, but that rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over economic policy could drag it down.

世界贸易组织在周四发布的一份报告中表示，全球贸易的步伐一直在加快，但地缘政治紧张局势的加剧和经济政策的不确定性可能会拖累全球贸易。

In particular, a widening conflict in the Middle East, the global center of oil production, could tangle shipping lanes and raise oil prices, the group said. That could make it harder and more expensive for people around the world to import the energy, food and other products they depend on.

该组织表示，尤其是在全球石油生产中心中东地区，冲突不断扩大可能会扰乱航道，推高油价。这可能会使世界各地的人们更加难以进口他们所依赖的能源、食品和其他产品，价格也会变得更加昂贵。

The organization, which is based in Geneva, said it expected global goods trade to increase by 2.7 percent in 2024, slightly up from its previous forecasts, and 3 percent in 2025. That growth follows a contraction in 2023, when global trade fell by 1.1 percent amid higher inflation and rising interest rates.

总部设在日内瓦的该组织表示，预计2024年，全球商品贸易将增长2.7%，略高于此前的预测，2025年将增长3%。这一增长是在2023年的收缩之后出现的，当时由于通胀加剧和利率上升，全球贸易下降了1.1%。

The organization said it had seen signs of global trade fracturing along political lines since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. Trade between countries that hold similar political views — based on voting patterns at the U.N. General Assembly — has grown 4 percent more quickly than trade between countries with differing views.

该组织表示，自乌克兰战争开始以来，出现了全球贸易沿着政治路线分裂的迹象。根据联合国大会的投票情况，政治观点相似的国家之间的贸易比政治观点不同的国家之间的贸易增长快4%。

6月，在也门胡塞叛军的袭击之后，Tutor号货轮在红海沉没。这些袭击导致许多船只绕道非洲南端航行。

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the group’s director general, said the organization remained vigilant about potential setbacks for trade, “particularly the potential escalation of regional conflicts like those in the Middle East. The impact could be most severe for the countries directly involved, but they may also indirectly affect global energy costs and shipping routes,” she added.

世贸总干事恩戈齐·奥孔乔-伊韦阿拉表示，该组织仍对贸易可能遭遇的挫折保持警惕，“特别是在中东那样的地区，冲突可能升级。对卷入其中的国家来说，影响可能最为严重，但也可能间接影响全球能源成本和航运路线，”她还说。

Beginning late last year, attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on commercial shipments in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, which are responsible for about 15 percent of global trade, encouraged many ships to reroute around the southern tip of Africa, adding one or more weeks to the journey.

从去年年底开始，也门胡塞叛军对红海和亚丁湾商船的袭击促使许多船只绕道非洲南端，增加了一周或更多时间的航程。红海和亚丁湾的贸易约占全球贸易的15%。

Earlier in 2023, global shipping traffic was also reshuffled after a drought limited the number of ships that could pass through the Panama Canal. Shipping costs have risen amid these disruptions, though they are still significantly below the highs seen during the pandemic.

2023年早些时候，由于干旱限制了可以通过巴拿马运河的船只数量，全球航运交通也重新洗牌。在这些中断期间，运输成本有所上升，尽管仍远低于大流行期间的高点。

And in March 2021, a container ship ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking traffic there for six days.

2021年3月，一艘集装箱船在苏伊士运河搁浅，导致交通堵塞六天。

The estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies suggest that the Taiwan Strait hosts an even larger percentage of global trade than any of these channels. Matthew P. Funaiole, a fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who worked on the Taiwan Strait study, said tensions in the region were “a global issue.”

战略与国际研究中心的估计表明，台湾海峡在全球贸易中所占的比例甚至比上述渠道都要大。参与台湾海峡研究的战略与国际研究中心中国力量项目研究员马修·富纳奥勒表示，该地区的紧张局势是“一个全球性问题”。

Any incident around Taiwan, such as an invasion or blockade, “would fundamentally disrupt the regular state of trade, and that would have a lot of economic consequences for a variety of countries,” he said.

任何围绕台湾的事件，如入侵或封锁，“都将从根本上扰乱正常的贸易状态，这将对许多国家造成严重的经济后果，”他说。

By correlating global ship traffic with country-level trade data, the researchers provide what they say are the first academically rigorous estimates of the volume of trade through the Taiwan Strait. Other than Taiwan itself, they find that the economy most exposed to disruptions in the strait is China, which sends $1.3 trillion of trade through the channel annually. The bulk of these shipments are Chinese imports of petroleum, metals, iron ore and other raw materials, as well as electronic components, that will feed Chinese power plants and factories.

通过将全球船舶交通与国家层面的贸易数据关联起来，研究人员提供了所谓台湾海峡贸易量首次严谨的学术估算。除了台湾本身，他们发现，最容易受到海峡中断影响的经济体是中国，中国每年通过台湾海峡的贸易额达1.3万亿美元。这些货物中的大部分是中国进口的石油、金属、铁矿石和其他原材料，以及电子元件，这些都供应给中国的发电厂和工厂。

The researchers calculated that the strait was a conduit for nearly a third of Japanese and Korean imports, and about a quarter of their exports. Nearly 27 percent of Australia’s exports also pass through the strait, largely commodities like iron ore, coal and liquefied natural gas.

研究人员计算出，台湾海峡是日本和韩国近三分之一的进口和大约四分之一的出口的通道。澳大利亚近27%的出口也要经过该海峡，主要是铁矿石、煤炭和液化天然气等大宗商品。

Of the five countries that are most dependent on the Taiwan Strait for their trade traffic, four are in Africa. The Democratic Republic of Congo alone sends about 70 percent of its total exports, primarily copper, cobalt and other metals, through the strait. Many Middle Eastern countries also send more than 30 percent of their exports through the strait, as they provide the fuel that powers China.

在贸易往来最依赖台湾海峡的五个国家中，有四个是非洲国家。仅刚果民主共和国的就有约70%的出口通过该海峡，主要是铜、钴和其他金属。许多中东国家30%以上的出口都要经过台湾海峡，它们为中国提供燃料。

“We have all of a sudden become very alert to the fact that trade flows are complicated but they narrow in these strategic choke points,” Mr. Funaiole said.

“我们突然一下警觉起来，贸易流动是复杂的，但它们在这些战略瓶颈处收窄了，”富纳奥勒说。