American zoos point to a rise in the wild panda numbers — 1,864 at last count — as proof that the tens of millions of dollars they have spent on conservation have hit their mark.

美国动物园指出，野生大熊猫数量的增加（最近的一次统计为1864只）证明，他们在保护大熊猫方面投入的数千万美元已达到预期效果。

But that population number comes from a 2013 Chinese government tally that no one in the conservation world actually believes — including the zoos themselves.

但这是中国政府2013年的统计数据，保护界没有人真正相信这个数字——包括动物园自己。

Zoos worldwide rent pairs of pandas from China for up to $1.1 million a year, then breed them in the hope of releasing future generations into the wild.

世界各地的动物园每年以高达110万美元的价格从中国租用一对大熊猫，然后对它们进行繁殖，希望将后代放归野外。

It is one of the world’s signature conservation programs. We spent months investigating it and found that few pandas had been released and that individual pandas had been injured, burned and even killed by aggressive artificial breeding.

这是世界上标志性的保护项目之一。我们花了几个月的时间进行调查，发现几乎没有大熊猫放归野外，个别大熊猫因激进的人工繁殖措施受伤、灼伤甚至死亡。

Zoos have glossed over the harms and declared the program a success, often by pointing to the uptick in panda numbers.

动物园对这些危害轻描淡写，往往以大熊猫数量上升为由，宣布该项目取得了成功。

But a 2006 research proposal from the National Zoo in Washington declared that the census methodology had “never been examined systematically and scientifically for its accuracy” and had “no quantitative data” to back it up.

但华盛顿国立动物园2006年的一项研究计划书宣称，大熊猫数量普查方法“从未经过系统和科学的准确性检验”，而且“没有定量数据”作为支持。

Another document from 2012 described a “lack of sound data on giant panda numbers in nature.”

2012年的另一份文件描述了“缺乏关于自然界大熊猫数量的可靠数据”。

“The number is, of course, not fully reliable,” said Jianguo Liu, an ecologist at Michigan State University who studies panda habitat in China.

“当然，这个数字并不完全可靠，”密歇根州立大学研究中国大熊猫栖息地的生态学家刘建国说。

How Do You Count Pandas?

怎样为熊猫计数？

China’s panda surveys, carried out about once a decade, are ambitious, multiyear affairs led by the national forestry bureau. In the most recent round, surveyors fanned out across steep terrain with GPS devices and topographic maps, sometimes taking local farmers as guides.

中国的大熊猫调查大约每十年进行一次，由国家林草局牵头，这是一项雄心勃勃、开展多年的工作。在最近的一轮调查中，勘测人员带着GPS设备和地形图在陡峭的地形上展开调查，有时还请当地农民当向导。

They searched for panda droppings, then analyzed bamboo fragments found in them.

他们搜寻熊猫粪便，然后分析其中发现的竹子碎片。

Pandas are solitary creatures that stick to particular forest areas, called home ranges. They have distinctive bite marks. They are also prolific poopers.

大熊猫是一种独居动物，它们固定在特定的森林区域，称为“家域”。它们有独特的咬痕。它们排便很多。

By analyzing bite marks that remain on the bamboo fragments, the thinking goes, surveyors can estimate how many pandas live in the area.

通过分析残留在竹片上的咬痕，调查人员可以估计出该地区有多少只大熊猫。

This Is Not Ideal

这种方法并不理想

In a 2010 blog post, Yu Changqing, a scientist who was a survey adviser, criticized the methodology and questioned the project’s organization.

在2010年的一篇博客文章中，曾担任调查顾问的科学家于长青批评了该方法，并对该项目的组织工作提出了质疑。

Millions were allocated to administrative expenses, while experts were sidelined. He wrote that “the giant panda survey is a scientific matter that should have been left to scientific researchers.” He added, “The final result was really regrettable.”

数以百万计的美元用于行政费用，而专家们则被边缘化，他写道：“大熊猫调查是一项科学的事情，本来应该交给科研人员负责。”他还写道，“最终结果实在令人遗憾。”

The National Zoo once proposed alternatives, calling the bite-mark approach “labor intensive and controversial.”

国立动物园曾提出过替代方案，称咬痕法“劳动强度大且有争议”。

Experts say there are better options.

专家表示，还有更好的选择。

“DNA is definitely the gold standard,” said David Garshelis, a co-chairman of the Bear Specialist Group at the International Union for Conservation of Nature, a wildlife monitoring group.

“DNA绝对是黄金标准，”野生动物监测组织国际自然保护联盟熊类专家小组的联合主席戴维·加尔谢利斯说。

Chinese experts said they had trouble finding enough fresh feces for consistent DNA analysis.

中国专家表示，他们很难找到足够的新鲜粪便来进行一致的DNA分析。

China Keeps Its Methodology a Secret

中国对统计方法保密

China’s forestry bureau arrives at a precise number — down to the last digit. It won’t say exactly how it does that.

中国林草局得出了一个精确的数字——精确到个位数字数字。但该机构不肯透露这是如何做到的。

American zoos and the World Wildlife Fund help finance the last census, but even they don’t know.

美国动物园和世界野生动物基金会为最后一次普查提供了资金，但连这两个机构也不知道具体的统计方法。

“They didn’t provide any of the information to understand how they did the analysis,” said Colby Loucks, a World Wildlife Fund vice president.

“他们没有提供任何信息来解释他们如何进行分析，”世界自然基金会副主席科尔比·洛克斯说。

The forestry bureau did not answer our questions about the census. It said our reporting was inaccurate but did not elaborate.

中国林草局没有回答我们关于大熊猫调查的提问。它表示我们的报道不准确，但没有详细说明。

“We just don’t have access” to timely data, said Qiongyu Huang, a wildlife biologist at the Smithsonian. “It’s kind of a bummer. We could have done a lot more research.”

“我们无法获得”及时的数据，史密森学会的野生动物生物学家黄穹宇（音）说。“这有点令人沮丧。我们本可以做更多的研究。”

Panda Data Is Political

熊猫数据是政治性的

Pandas are political. Censuses are political. A panda census is extremely political.

熊猫是政治性的。调查是政治性的。熊猫调查尤其是政治性的。

In the 1980s, some officials in western China worried that revealing the existence of pandas would lead to logging bans, so scientists believe they underreported or denied the presence of pandas.

在20世纪80年代，中国西部的一些官员担心披露大熊猫的存在会导致伐木禁令，因此科学家认为他们少报或否认了大熊猫的存在。

Other pressures may lead to overreporting. For some poor areas in western China, pandas can bring in government funding.

其他压力也可能导致多报。在中国西部的一些贫困地区，大熊猫可以带来政府资金。

These competing interests make it hard to know the truth. “There are so many human interventions,” said Lung Yuan Chih, a director of the Taiwan Human-Animal Studies Institute.

这些相互冲突的利益使人很难了解真相。“人为干预太多了，”台湾动物与人学会理事龙缘之说。

Zoos Embrace the Number

动物园接受这一数字

In 2016, the International Union for Conservation of Nature declared that pandas were no longer endangered.

2016年，国际自然保护联盟宣布大熊猫不再濒危。

The group’s experts believed that, even if the 1,864 count wasn’t exact, panda numbers were trending upward and their habitat was growing, said Dr. Garshelis. He said that China provided the group with some data, like the estimated number of pandas in each area, along with the locations of the droppings analyzed.

加尔谢利斯说，该组织的专家认为，即使1864只大熊猫这一数量不准确，但大熊猫的数量呈上升趋势，它们的栖息地也在扩大。他说，中国向该组织提供了一些数据，比如每个地区大熊猫的估计数量，以及被分析的粪便的位置。

Annalisa Meyer, a National Zoo spokeswoman, said that, while “scientific discourse is expected,” the international community has reached a consensus that the panda population is increasing. She said that more habitat had been protected, and that researchers had observed wild pandas moving into those new areas.

国立动物园发言人安娜丽莎·迈耶说，虽然“依然有待科学论述”，但是，国际社会已经达成共识，认为大熊猫的数量正在增加。她说，更多的栖息地得到了保护，研究人员已经观察到野生大熊猫正在进入这些新的地区。

Oddly enough, China’s forestry bureau disputed the I.U.C.N. decision, fearing that it would remove pandas from the spotlight, Dr. Garshelis said.

奇怪的是，中国林草局对国际自然保护联盟的决定提出了异议，担心这会让大熊猫淡出人们的视线，加尔谢利斯说。

But China, like American zoos, now says the new designation proves the program’s success.

但现在，中国和美国动物园同样表示，新的认定证明了该项目的成功。

“Ultimately,” Dr. Garshelis said, “they became convinced by their own numbers.”

“最终，”加尔谢利斯说，“他们被他们自己的数字说服了。”