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朝鲜从乌克兰战争中得到了什么

CHOE SANG-HUN

2024年10月17日

6月,金正恩与普京的会晤出现在首尔的电视上。会晤期间,金正恩发誓朝鲜将“全力支持和声援”俄罗斯的乌克兰战争。 Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images

The war in Ukraine is providing North Korea’s military with something it has long hoped for: opportunities to test its new weapons and its officers’ preparedness for modern warfare, analysts and officials in South Korea said on Wednesday.

韩国的分析人士和官员周三表示,乌克兰战争为朝鲜军方提供了它一直希望得到的东西:测试新武器以及让朝鲜军官为现代战争做好准备的机会。

In recent weeks, Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have said that in addition to providing large shipments of artillery shells and ballistic missiles for Russia, North Korea has been sending military engineers and soldiers to fight alongside Russian troops. Last week, Kim Yong-hyun, South Korea’s defense minister, called it “highly likely” that several North Korean soldiers had already been killed in the fighting, and that North Korea would send more troops to help Russia.

最近几周,总统泽连斯基和其他乌克兰官员称,除了为俄罗斯提供大量炮弹和弹道导弹外,朝鲜还派遣军事工程师和士兵与俄罗斯军队并肩作战。上周,韩国国防部长金龙显称,“极有可能”已经有几名朝鲜士兵在战斗中丧生,朝鲜还将派遣更多军队帮助俄罗斯。

Moscow helped North Korea fight the Korean War seven decades ago by supplying weapons and pilots. Now, the North’s aid to Russia in a distant war is turning history back on itself. It is also, analysts said, strengthening its military preparedness on the Korean Peninsula at a time of growing tensions with South Korea​.

70年前,通过提供武器和飞行员,莫斯科帮助朝鲜打了朝鲜战争。现在,朝鲜在一场遥远的战争中向俄罗斯提供的援助正在翻转历史。分析人士表示,在与韩国的紧张关系日益加剧之际,它还加强了在朝鲜半岛的军事准备。

Since the Korean War, North Korea has not fought another major conflict. But it has sought opportunities to sell weapons and other military assistance to friendly countries. It sent pilots to aid North Vietnam during the Vietnam War. Its pilots also flew for Egypt in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. North Korea also sent missile technicians and, according to Tass, the Russian state news agency, two small units of combat troops to fight for the Assad regime during Syria’s civil war in 2016.

自朝鲜战争以来,朝鲜没有再卷入重大冲突。但它一直在寻找机会向友好国家出售武器,提供其他军事援助。在越南战争期间,它派遣飞行员援助北越。它的飞行员还在1973年的赎罪日战争中为埃及飞行。据俄罗斯国家通讯社塔斯社报道,2016年叙利亚内战期间,朝鲜派遣了导弹技术人员和两支小型作战部队为阿萨德政权作战。

“It has been a pattern: When North Korea has sold weapons to countries at war, they sent personnel not only to help those countries use the weapons, but often also to fight there themselves,” said Yang Uk, a military expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul. “They don’t seem to like missing opportunities to fight in a war and gain experience.”

“这已经成为了一种模式:当朝鲜向处于战争状态的国家出售武器时,他们不仅会派人员帮助这些国家使用这些武器,而且往往还会派人员亲自去那里作战,”首尔峨山政策研究院的军事专家杨旭(音)说。“他们似乎不喜欢错过参战和获得经验的机会。”

If North Korea sent ground troops to Ukraine, it would be “their first major war in decades, an opportunity where their officers could get a sample of how modern war is fought, including the use of drones,” Mr. Yang added. “They will study how the knowledge they gain there can be translated into the Korean theater.”

如果朝鲜向乌克兰派遣地面部队,那将是“他们几十年来的第一次重大战争,他们的军官可以借此机会了解现代战争如何进行,包括无人机的使用”,杨旭还说。“他们将研究如何把在那里获得的知识转化到朝鲜战场上。”

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Washington has repeatedly warned of growing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, providing photographic evidence that weapons from North Korea, especially its KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles, have been used against Ukraine.

华盛顿曾多次警告,俄罗斯与朝鲜之间的军事合作日益密切,并提供照片证据,证明朝鲜的武器已被用于对付乌克兰,尤其是KN-23短程弹道导弹。

The KN-23 is one of a series of nuclear-capable short-range ballistic missiles North Korea has developed and tested in recent years. It would be one of the main weapons North Korea would use against South Korea should war break out on the Korean Peninsula, military experts said.

KN-23是朝鲜近年来开发和试验的一系列具备核能力的短程弹道导弹之一。军事专家表示,如果朝鲜半岛爆发战争,这将是朝鲜用来对付韩国的主要武器之一。

“From the battlefield use, North Korea will collect valuable data to improve its missiles’ effectiveness — data it can also use to help sell the missiles to foreign buyers,” said Yang Moo-jin, the president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.

位于首尔的朝鲜大学校长梁茂进(音)表示:“朝鲜将从战场使用中收集宝贵的数据,以提高其导弹的效能——这些数据也可以用来帮助向外国买家出售导弹。”

Analysts in South Korea said that North Korea’s main personnel contribution to Russia’s war would be engineers and weapons advisers to help the Russian military operate its weapons, observe defects and collect data from their battlefield use. Many of the North Korean artillery shells and missiles are said to be of poor quality, turning out to be duds.

韩国分析人士表示,朝鲜对俄罗斯战争的主要人员贡献可能是工程师和武器顾问,他们帮助俄罗斯军方操作武器,观察缺陷,并收集战场使用数据。据说,朝鲜的许多炮弹和导弹质量很差,最终被证明是哑弹。

Some analysts doubted that North Korea would commit a large number of troops to the war in Ukraine anytime soon.

一些分析人士怀疑,朝鲜短期内不会向乌克兰战场派遣大量军队。

“That kind of operation requires extensive preparations by both sides, like those annual military exercises South Korea and the United States conduct,” said Park Won-gon, a political scientist at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.

“这种行动需要双方进行大量准备工作,就像韩国和美国进行的年度军事演习一样,”首尔梨花女子大学的政治学家朴元坤(音)说。

North Korea is believed to have shipped thousands of shipping containers of artillery shells, missiles and other weapons to Russia since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, United States and South Korean officials say. In return, North Korea may seek Russia’s technological help for its nuclear and space programs, as well as opportunities to send its workers to help rebuild Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine and bring home urgently needed income, they said.

美国和韩国官员表示,自莫斯科于2022年入侵乌克兰以来,朝鲜据信已经向俄罗斯运送了数以千计装有炮弹、导弹和其他武器的集装箱。他们说,作为回报,朝鲜可能会寻求俄罗斯对其核项目和太空项目的技术帮助,并有机会派遣朝鲜工人帮助重建俄罗斯占领的乌克兰地区,将急需的收入带回国。

Under United Nations Security Council resolutions, countries are banned from employing North Korean workers or engaging in arms trade with the North.

根据联合国安理会决议,各国被禁止雇佣朝鲜工人或与朝鲜进行武器贸易。

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Both Moscow ​and Pyongyang have denied ​engaging in arms shipments from North Korea. Russia also called reports that North Korean troops were fighting alongside ​its troops “another fake news story.” In recent weeks, Ukrainian officials and news media have increasingly reported such accusations, without providing photographic or other evidence.

莫斯科和平壤都否认来自朝鲜的武器运送。俄罗斯还称,有关朝鲜军队与俄罗斯军队并肩作战的报道是“又一个假新闻”。最近几周,乌克兰官员和新闻媒体越来越多地报道这类指控,但没有提供照片或其他证据。

“We see an increasing alliance between Russia and regimes like North Korea,” Mr. Zelensky said on Sunday. “It is no longer just about transferring weapons. It is actually about transferring people from North Korea to the occupying military forces.”

“我们看到,俄罗斯与朝鲜等政权之间的联盟越来越紧密,”泽连斯基在周日说。“这不再仅仅是转移武器的问题。这实际上是把人从朝鲜转移到占领军那里。”

As North Korea has fueled its partnership with Russia, it has also turned increasingly hostile toward South Korea, demolishing all railway and road links between the two Koreas with dynamites this week in a symbolic gesture of declaring the South as an enemy state.

随着朝鲜加强与俄罗斯的伙伴关系,它对韩国的敌意也越来越大,本周,朝鲜用炸药摧毁了两国之间的所有铁路和公路连接,这是宣布韩国为敌国的象征性姿态。

“The sense of being allied with Russia can embolden North Korea to become more aggressive toward South Korea,” Mr. Park said.

“与俄罗斯结盟的感觉可能会让朝鲜更加大胆地对韩国采取更具侵略性的行动,”朴元坤说。


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