For more than a year, the fate of the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar seemed entwined with the fate of the war in Gaza.

一年多来，哈马斯领导人叶海亚·辛瓦尔的命运似乎与加沙战争的命运交织在一起。

Mr. Sinwar orchestrated the Hamas assault on Israel last October that killed up to 1,200 people, captured some 250 hostages and prompted a devastating Israeli retaliation that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and laid waste to much of the Gaza Strip.

去年10月，辛瓦尔策划了哈马斯对以色列的袭击，造成多达1200人死亡，约250人被扣为人质，引发了以色列的毁灭性报复，数万巴勒斯坦人被杀，加沙地带大部分地区被夷为废墟。

He was considered the driving force behind Hamas’s refusal to surrender, even as Israel’s airstrikes and ground invasion devastated the territory and displaced most of its population. And his survival made it impossible for Israel to declare victory — living proof that Hamas, though decimated, remained undefeated.

他被认为是哈马斯拒绝投降的幕后力量，尽管以色列的空袭和地面入侵摧毁了该地区，并使其大部分人口流离失所。只要他还活着，以色列就不可能宣布胜利——他的存在活生生地证明哈马斯虽然被大量消灭，但仍然未被击败。

Now, after Mr. Sinwar’s killing, a route toward some kind of truce in Gaza seems slightly more navigable, since it gives both Israel and Hamas a pretext to soften their stance, according to Israeli and Palestinian analysts. But major obstacles remain — and any solution in Gaza will have only a limited impact on the broader conflict between Israel and Hamas’s regional allies, including Hezbollah.

如今，在辛瓦尔被杀之后，在加沙实现某种休战的道路似乎更通畅了一些，以色列和巴勒斯坦的分析人士表示，这给了以色列和哈马斯一个软化立场的借口。但是，主要的障碍仍然存在，而且加沙问题的任何解决方案对以色列和哈马斯在该地区的盟友（包括真主党）之间更广泛的冲突只会产生有限的影响。

Negotiations for a cease-fire and a deal to release the hostages stalled partly because Mr. Sinwar held out for a permanent agreement allowing Hamas to retain power in a postwar Gaza. His maximalist stance was incompatible with that of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, who sought only a temporary truce that would allow Israel to return to battle within weeks in order to prevent Hamas’s long-term survival.

关于停火和释放人质协议的谈判陷入僵局，部分原因是辛瓦尔坚持要求达成一项永久性协议，允许哈马斯在战后的加沙保留权力。他的极端立场与以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡格格不入，后者只寻求暂时停战，以色列可以在数周内重返战场，以防哈马斯长期生存下去。

After Mr. Sinwar’s death, Hamas’s remaining leadership, demoralized and afraid, might agree to make compromises that Mr. Sinwar could not, analysts said.

分析人士说，辛瓦尔死后，哈马斯剩余的领导层士气低落、心怀恐惧，可能会同意做出辛瓦尔不会做出的妥协。

In Israel, Mr. Netanyahu could now make the argument that Hamas has been defeated without the need for further war.

在以色列，内塔尼亚胡现在可以辩称，哈马斯已经被击败，无需进一步的战争。

“If Netanyahu has a victory picture under his belt, he can be a bit more forthcoming because he is in a much more prestigious position,” said Itamar Rabinovich, a former Israeli ambassador to Washington. “The question is,” Mr. Rabinovich added, “Does Netanyahu rise to the occasion, or does he not?”

“如果内塔尼亚胡手中有一幅胜利的图景，他可以更主动一些，因为他处在一个更具威望的位置上，”前以色列驻华盛顿大使伊塔马尔·拉宾诺维奇说。“问题是，”拉宾诺维奇还说，“内塔尼亚胡是否会根据形势做出改变？”

Still, any change may not be immediate. Hamas is a disciplined organization that has survived the deaths of many previous leaders, and its core beliefs remain the same regardless of who is in charge. And Mr. Netanyahu must still weigh a renewed push for a hostage deal against the priorities of his allies in government, who want him to continue the war.

不过，任何变化可能都不会立即发生。哈马斯是一个纪律严明的组织，经历了许多前任领导人的死亡，不管由谁掌权，它的核心信念始终如一。内塔尼亚胡也必须在重新推动人质交易和他政府中的盟友的优先事项之间做出权衡，盟友希望他继续战争。

Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right minister who has previously threatened to resign from government if the war ends prematurely, said in a statement: “It is time to increase the military pressure and step on the neck of the terrorist organization, until its complete defeat.”

极右翼部长伊塔马尔·本-吉维尔此前曾威胁说，如果战争提前结束，他将辞去政府职务。他在声明中表示：“现在是时候加大军事压力，掐住恐怖组织的脖子，直到其彻底失败。”

In response, Mr. Netanyahu took an ambiguous stance, releasing competing statements that suggested he was weighing both options. After speaking with President Biden, his office released a statement that acknowledged “an opportunity to advance the release of the hostages.”

作为回应，内塔尼亚胡采取了模棱两可的立场，发表了一些相互矛盾的声明，表明他在权衡两种选择。在与拜登总统交谈后，他的办公室发表了一份声明，承认“有机会推进人质的释放”。

But in an earlier video statement, Mr. Netanyahu appeared to side with his coalition partners, warning Israelis of tough challenges ahead and pledging to continue to pursue Hamas’s remaining leadership.

但在早些时候的一段视频声明中，内塔尼亚胡似乎站在了他的盟友的一边，警告以色列人未来面临着严峻挑战，并承诺继续追捕哈马斯剩余的领导人。

“Today evil suffered a severe blow, but the task before us is not yet complete,” Mr. Netanyahu said. “Together we shall fight,” he added, “and, with God’s help, together we shall prevail.”

“今天，邪恶遭受了沉重打击，但我们面前的任务尚未完成，”内塔尼亚胡说。“我们将一起战斗，”他还说，“在神的帮助下，我们将共同取得胜利。”

周四，加沙地带南部汗尤尼斯遭受的破坏。

The route that Hamas might take in the wake of Mr. Sinwar’s death is similarly ambiguous, analysts said.

分析人士说，在辛瓦尔死后，哈马斯可能采取的路线也同样模糊不清。

Fuad Khuffash, a Palestinian analyst close to Hamas, said that Mr. Sinwar’s death would deal the group a crushing blow but would not necessarily change its main negotiating positions.

与哈马斯关系密切的巴勒斯坦分析人士福阿德·赫法什表示，辛瓦尔之死将给该组织带来毁灭性打击，但不一定会改变它的主要谈判立场。

Hamas is “a group built on individuals. If you lose someone of Sinwar’s stature, it’s not always easy to find someone quickly with the same strength,” said Mr. Khuffash. But, he added, “Hamas will continue according to the same principles — if they don’t stiffen their position. Whoever replaces this leader will continue his ideological line.”

哈马斯是“一个建立在个人基础上的组织。如果你失去了像辛瓦尔这样有声望的人，很快找到一个有同样实力的人并不容易”，赫法什说。但是，他还说：“哈马斯将继续按照同样的原则行事——如果不是更加强硬的话。无论谁接替这位领导人，都将延续他的意识形态路线。”

For example, Hamas’s remaining leadership is still unlikely to withdraw its demand for a permanent truce or to accept permanent Israeli occupation of parts of Gaza, according to Ibrahim Dalalsha, director of the Horizon Center, a political research group in Ramallah, West Bank.

举例而言，哈马斯的残余领导层仍然不太可能收回永久休战的要求，也不太可能接受以色列对加沙部分地区的永久占领，约旦河西岸拉马拉的政治研究机构地平线中心主任易卜拉欣·达拉沙说。

But Mr. Dalalsha said Hamas’s new leadership might be more willing than Mr. Sinwar to hand over power to a technocratic Palestinian government, in order to ensure the group can survive at least in some form in Gaza. It could also show more flexibility in the negotiations over the hostages, perhaps agreeing to exchange more hostages for fewer Palestinian prisoners.

但达拉沙说，哈马斯的新领导层可能比辛瓦尔更愿意将权力移交给一个技术官僚型的巴勒斯坦政府，以确保该组织至少能以某种形式在加沙生存下去。它也可以在人质谈判中表现出更大的灵活性，也许同意用更多的人质交换更少的巴勒斯坦囚犯。

And it might also tolerate a temporary Israeli presence in Gaza as long as Israel nominally promised to withdraw permanently in the future, Mr. Dalalsha said.

达拉沙说，只要以色列名义上承诺将来永久撤离，它也可能容忍以色列在加沙的暂时存在。

“You could find a weakened, more pragmatic leadership in Hamas that would make some tactical compromises, though not on the strategic issues,” Mr. Dalalsha said.

“你可能会发现，哈马斯的领导层被削弱了，但更加务实，他们会做出一些战术上的妥协，但不会在战略问题上妥协，”达拉沙说。

“They won’t say: ‘Yes, we’ll do whatever you want, Mr. Netanyahu,’” Mr. Dalalsha said. “But for the sake of their own physical survival, they may make more compromises than the man who initiated the whole war.”

“他们不会说：‘是的，我们会照你说的做，内塔尼亚胡，’”达拉沙说。“但为了他们自己的生存，他们可能会比发动整个战争的人做出更多的妥协。”

But whatever the response from both Hamas and Mr. Netanyahu, their actions in Gaza will still leave the broader battle between Israel and Hamas’s regional allies unresolved.

但无论哈马斯和内塔尼亚胡如何回应，他们在加沙的行动仍将使以色列与哈马斯在该地区盟友之间更广泛的战斗继续下去。

Ending the war in Gaza would not immediately contain Israel’s war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, where an Israeli ground invasion is ongoing, or its conflict with Iran.

结束加沙战争不会立即遏制以色列与黎巴嫩真主党的战争——以色列正在黎巴嫩进行地面入侵，也不会立即遏制以色列与伊朗的冲突。

星期四，人们在约旦河西岸城市伯利恒的一家理发店里观看辛瓦尔死亡的电视新闻报道。