A year ago, Saudi Arabia was preparing to recognize Israel in a normalization deal that would have fundamentally reshaped the Middle East and further isolated Iran and its allies while barely lifting a finger to advance Palestinian statehood.

一年前，沙特阿拉伯准备在一项正常化协议中承认以色列，该协议将从根本上重塑中东，进一步孤立伊朗及其盟友，同时在推动巴勒斯坦建国方面几乎没有任何举动。

Now, that deal is further away than ever, even after the killing of the Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, which has been widely seized upon as a potential opening for a peace deal. Instead, Saudi Arabia is warming relations with its traditional archenemy, Iran, while insisting that any diplomatic pact now hinges on Israel’s acceptance of a Palestinian state, a remarkable turnaround for the kingdom.

如今，哈马斯领导人叶海亚·辛瓦尔之死被普遍视为达成和平协议的潜在契机，即便是在此之后，这一协议也比以往任何时候都更加遥远。相反，沙特阿拉伯正在改善与宿敌伊朗的关系，同时坚称，现在任何外交协议都取决于以色列是否接受巴勒斯坦国，这对沙特来说是一个显著的转变。

A diplomatic détente is underway in the Mideast, but not the one envisioned by the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who continues to say that his administration can clinch a deal with Riyadh. This month, the foreign ministers of the Persian Gulf states met for the first time as a group with their Iranian counterpart. It is a shaky, early-stage rapprochement that will only chip away at centuries of sectarian antagonisms, but it represents a sharp shift in a region where the rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran has drenched the region in bloodshed for decades.

中东地区正在通过外交手段缓和紧张局势，但并非以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡所设想的那种，他继续表示，他的政府能够与利雅得达成协议。本月，波斯湾国家的外交部长首次与伊朗外长举行了集体会晤。这是一个不稳定的、处于早期阶段的和解，它只能起到逐渐减弱几个世纪以来教派对立的作用，但在利雅得和德黑兰之间的争斗使该地区数十年来血流成河的情况下，这代表着一个急剧的转变。

Tehran’s outreach continued after that, with the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, visiting Saudi Arabia before heading to other countries in the region, including Iraq and Oman, in an effort to ease tensions. He also visited Jordan before traveling to Egypt and Turkey. The visit to Egypt was the first by an Iranian foreign minister in 12 years, according to the Iranian news media.

此后，德黑兰的外交举动仍在继续，伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐访问了沙特阿拉伯，然后前往该地区的其他国家，包括伊拉克和阿曼，以缓和紧张局势。在前往埃及和土耳其之前，他还访问了约旦。据伊朗新闻媒体报道，这是12年来伊朗外长首次访问埃及。

“In the region, we now have a common grievance about the threat of the war spreading, and the wars in Gaza and Lebanon and the displaced people,” Mr. Araghchi said on Friday, when he landed in Istanbul.

“在这个地区，我们有着共同的担忧，那就是战争蔓延的威胁，以及在加沙和黎巴嫩的战争，还有就是人们因为战争而流离失所，”阿拉格齐周五抵达伊斯坦布尔时说。

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡对于拒绝建立巴勒斯坦国的举动正在推动中东地区的重新结盟。

While Mr. Netanyahu continues to reject the creation of a Palestinian state, Saudi officials have taken to newspapers and public speeches to put a two-state solution on the negotiating table. That, the kingdom has said, is the only way at this point for Israel to win favor with Saudi Arabia, largely seen as the leader of the Arab world.

虽然内塔尼亚胡继续拒绝建立巴勒斯坦国，但沙特官员已经通过报纸和公开演讲将两国解决方案摆上谈判桌。沙特表示，这是目前以色列赢得沙特好感的唯一途径。而沙特在很大程度上被视为阿拉伯世界的领导者。

What changed? Images started streaming out of Gaza of children buried alive under rubble, mothers grieving over their dead babies and Palestinians starving because Israel had blocked aid from entering the territory — all of which made it impossible for the Saudi leadership to ignore the issue of Palestinian statehood.

这背后发生了什么样的变化？从加沙流出的画面显示，儿童被活埋在瓦砾下，母亲为死去的婴儿悲伤，巴勒斯坦人因以色列阻止援助进入该地区而忍饥挨饿——所有这些都使沙特领导人不可能忽视巴勒斯坦建国问题。

“What Gaza has done is set back any Israeli integration into the region,” said Ali Shihabi, a Saudi businessman who is close to the monarchy and sits on the advisory board of Neom, a futuristic city that is the pet project of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s future ruler. “Saudi Arabia sees that any association with Israel has become more toxic since Gaza, unless the Israelis change their spots and show a real commitment to a Palestinian state, which they have refused to do.”

“发生在加沙的战争阻碍了以色列融入该地区的进程，”沙特商人阿里·谢哈布说。他与王室关系密切，是未来主义城市Neom（沙特未来统治者、王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼青睐的项目）的顾问委员会成员。“沙特阿拉伯认为，自加沙事件以来，与以色列的任何联系都变得更加有害，除非以色列改变立场，表现出对巴勒斯坦国的真正承诺，而他们一直拒绝这样做。”

For now, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners remain skeptical about the sincerity of Iran’s diplomatic overtures. While two of Iran’s proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, have been hammered by Israel, Iran still arms and supports its third ally, the Houthis in Yemen, which have attacked Saudi Arabia.

目前，沙特阿拉伯及其海湾伙伴国家仍对伊朗外交姿态的诚意持怀疑态度。虽然伊朗的两个代理人哈马斯和真主党受到了以色列的打击，但伊朗仍在为其第三个盟友也门胡塞武装提供武器和支持，后者曾经袭击沙特阿拉伯。

But “as long as the Iranians are reaching a hand out to Riyadh, the Saudi leadership will take it,” said Mr. Shihabi, adding that, if Iran is serious, “that would be a true realignment of the Mideast.”

但谢哈布说，“只要伊朗向利雅得伸出手，沙特领导人就会接受。”他还说，如果伊朗是认真的，“那将是中东真正的重新结盟。”

Saudi Arabia and Iran have long jockeyed for regional dominance, a rivalry shaped by the competing branches of Islam each country embraces.

沙特阿拉伯和伊朗长期以来一直在争夺地区主导地位，两国各自信奉的伊斯兰教派相互对立，从而形成了竞争关系。

The war in Gaza has been raging for over a year, started after Hamas launched a bloody attack on Oct. 7, 2023, that killed some 1,200 Israelis and kidnapped over 200 more. That prompted Israel to launch an invasion of Gaza that has been criticized for its indiscriminate bombing and catastrophic death toll: over 40,000 dead, many of them civilians.

持续一年多的加沙战争始于哈马斯2023年10月7日发动的血腥袭击，导致约1200名以色列人死亡，200多人被绑架。这促使以色列对加沙发动了入侵，其无差别轰炸和灾难性的死亡人数令以色列饱受批评，超过4万人死亡，其中许多是平民。

以色列对加沙地带的哈马斯以及黎巴嫩真主党的袭击改变了中东的局势。图中，一名儿童拿着本月以色列空袭加沙后抢救出来的物品。

And while palace insiders like Mr. Shihabi admit that Saudi Arabia is no democracy, Prince Mohammed is sensitive to public opinion, which has hardened toward Israel over the past year.

虽然像谢哈布这样的王室内部人士承认沙特阿拉伯不是民主国家，但穆罕默德王储对公众舆论很敏感，而过去一年公众对以色列的态度变得更加强硬。

The Gulf region has one of the world’s youngest populations; the average age of Saudis was 29 in 2022. Many of its citizens are transfixed by the endless stream of horrific images coming out of Gaza on their social media feeds, changing many of their once positive, or at least ambivalent, attitudes toward a deal with Israel.

海湾地区是世界上人口最年轻的地区之一；2022年，沙特人的平均年龄为29岁。许多沙特公民为社交媒体上源源不断的来自加沙的可怕画面所震惊，这改变了许多人对于同以色列达成协议曾经有过的积极态度，或者至少是矛盾的态度。

In the months before Oct. 7, Saudi Arabia was planning an agreement with Israel that would have given Riyadh an expanded defense pact with the United States and support for a civilian nuclear program in exchange for normalizing ties. While some other Gulf countries opened diplomatic relations with Israel in 2020 in a deal known as the Abraham Accords, they did not use their leverage to push Israel to create and recognize a Palestinian state.

在10月7日之前的几个月里，沙特阿拉伯一直在计划与以色列达成一项协议，使利雅得扩大与美国的防务协议，并支持其民用核计划，以换取两国关系正常化。虽然其他一些海湾国家在2020年与以色列建立了外交关系，达成了《亚伯拉罕协议》，但它们并没有利用自己的影响力推动以色列建立并承认巴勒斯坦国。

While Riyadh has long been a vociferous supporter of a two-state solution, that goal became less of a foreign policy priority in recent years, as the crown prince solidified his power and shaped the nation’s regional and domestic policies. In last year’s talks to normalize ties with Israel, a Palestinian state was never raised as a condition. Instead, Riyadh demanded that Israel allow for the Palestinian Authority — which governs the West Bank — to expand its territorial control and power, according to Mr. Shihabi and Arab diplomats with knowledge of the talks.

虽然利雅得长期以来一直大力支持两国方案，但近年来，随着王储巩固了自己的权力，并塑造了该国的地区和国内政策，这一目标在外交政策中的优先地位有所下降。在去年与以色列关系正常化的会谈中，巴勒斯坦建国从未被作为条件提出。据谢哈布和了解会谈情况的阿拉伯外交官说，相反，利雅得要求以色列允许管理约旦河西岸的巴勒斯坦权力机构扩大其领土控制和权力。

But the situation in Gaza has upended that ambivalence.

但加沙的局势颠覆了这种矛盾心态。

In his first public comments advocating for a Palestinian state, Crown Prince Mohammed was unequivocal about Riyadh’s new demands.

穆罕默德王储首次公开表示支持建立巴勒斯坦国，并明确提出了利雅得的新要求。

2020年9月，特朗普总统带着内塔尼亚胡和两位阿拉伯领导人出席《亚伯拉罕协议》签署仪式。

“The kingdom will not cease its tireless efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and we affirm that the kingdom will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without one,” the crown prince said on Sept. 18 to his senior advisory council, in a speech akin to the U.S. State of the Union address.

9月18日，王储向他的高级顾问委员会发表了类似于美国国情咨文的演讲，他说：“王国不会停止建立以东耶路撒冷为首都的独立巴勒斯坦国的不懈努力，我们申明，王国不会在没有它的情况下同以色列建立外交关系。”

The Abraham Accords have been criticized for not delivering the peace to the region promised by former President Donald J. Trump, whose administration brokered the deal. None of the Arab states that signed on have fought a war with Israel in decades, and the deal did not include Iran and Syria, which are in active conflict with Israel.

《亚伯拉罕协议》因未能实现前总统特朗普所承诺的地区和平而受到批评，该协议是由特朗普政府斡旋促成的。签署该协议的阿拉伯国家几十年来都没有与以色列交战过，该协议也没有囊括与以色列处于激烈冲突中的伊朗和叙利亚两国。

The historic meeting between Iran and the Gulf countries this month came a day after Tehran launched 180 ballistic missiles at Israel. The attack was revenge for last month’s killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, and the assassination of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, earlier this year, key Iranian allies.

在德黑兰向以色列发射180枚弹道导弹的第二天，伊朗与海湾国家举行了本月的历史性会晤。此次袭击是对上个月杀害真主党领导人哈桑·纳斯鲁拉和今年早些时候暗杀哈马斯政治领袖伊斯梅尔·哈尼亚的报复，他们是伊朗的主要盟友。

Observers wonder if Iran is now more eager to thaw relations with the Gulf because of Israeli operations that have killed most of Hezbollah’s top leadership in recent weeks. The Lebanese militia has long been Iran’s most powerful Arab ally and proxy, long feared by Israel and the linchpin in Tehran’s efforts to project its power across the Mideast. It also provided a bulwark against Israel for Iran. Without Hezbollah, Tehran is severely weakened.

观察人士怀疑伊朗之所以现在更急于缓和与海湾国家的关系，是因为以色列最近几周的行动杀死了真主党的大部分高层领导人。长期以来，这个黎巴嫩民兵组织一直是伊朗最强大的阿拉伯盟友和代理人，以色列长期以来一直对该组织有所忌惮，这个组织也是德黑兰在中东地区投射力量的关键。它还为伊朗提供了对抗以色列的堡垒。没有真主党，德黑兰的力量将严重削弱。

The war in Gaza has also forced countries that have signed on to the Abraham Accords to start advocating for Palestinian statehood, possibly because they worry about public opinion at home.

加沙战争还迫使签署《亚伯拉罕协议》的国家开始倡导巴勒斯坦建国，这样做的理由可能是因为它们担心国内的舆论。

去年12月，迪拜，联合国气候变化大会期间，参加加沙停火集会的人们。

While the United Arab Emirates, the Gulf’s second-most powerful player, has maintained links to Israel over the last year, the relationship has come under increasing stress.

虽然海湾地区第二大国阿联酋在过去一年中一直与以色列保持联系，但这种关系正面临越来越大的压力。

“The United Arab Emirates is not ready to support the day after the war in Gaza without the establishment of a Palestinian state,” the Emirati foreign minister, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, said last month, referring to Israel’s demands that the U.A.E. shoulder the burden of rebuilding Gaza after the war ends.

“如果没有巴勒斯坦建国，阿联酋不会在加沙战争结束后立刻提供支持，”阿联酋外交部长阿卜杜拉·本·扎耶德上个月表示，他指的是以色列要求阿联酋在战争结束后承担重建加沙的重担。

While Mr. Netanyahu continues to claim that a monumental deal is in the works with Riyadh, Saudi officials have pushed back, highlighting the widening divide between their nations.

尽管内塔尼亚胡继续声称正在与利雅得达成一项重大协议，但沙特官员却作出反驳，凸显了两国之间日益扩大的分歧。

“The Abraham Accords were cosmetic; there was nothing substantive about them when it comes to a real, enduring regional peace agreement. Many of the states that signed on did so because they see Israel as a path to influence in Washington,” Mr. Shihabi said.

“亚伯拉罕协议只是表面文章；对于真正的、持久的区域和平协议而言，它没有任何实质性内容。许多签署协议的国家之所以这样做，是因为他们认为以色列是影响华盛顿的一条途径，”谢哈布说。

“But now we see that the U.S. has no power or influence over Israel — to a humiliating degree,” he added, “and that the Israelis have no intention to create a Palestinian state.”

“但现在我们看到，美国对以色列没有任何权力或影响力——甚至到了令美国颜面尽失的程度，”他补充道，“而且以色列人无意建立一个巴勒斯坦国。”