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金砖国家峰会:普京和习近平打的什么“算盘”

VALERIE HOPKINS, DAVID PIERSON

2024年10月22日

俄罗斯官方媒体提供的一张照片显示,今年7月,俄罗斯总统普京在圣彼得堡出席金砖国家议会论坛。 Valery Sharifulin/Sputnik

After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the West imposed sweeping economic sanctions, cut its access to the global banking system, and sought to isolate Russia diplomatically from the rest of the world.

在俄罗斯于2022年全面入侵乌克兰后,西方对其实施了全面的经济制裁,切断了俄罗斯与全球银行体系的联系,并试图在外交上将俄罗斯与世界其他国家隔离开来。

As President Vladimir V. Putin gathers the leaders of emerging market countries this week in the Russian city of Kazan, he wants to show the West that he has important allies on his side.

本周,俄罗斯总统普京在俄罗斯城市喀山召集新兴市场国家的领导人,希望向西方表明,有重要的盟友和他站在同一边。

Russia is hosting the so-called BRICS group, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. This year the meeting, which begins Tuesday, has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

俄罗斯将主办金砖国家集团会议,该集团由巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非等国组成。今年的会议将于周二开始,成员国扩大到埃及、埃塞俄比亚、伊朗和阿拉伯联合酋长国。

Its wonky name notwithstanding (it was coined by a Wall Street banker in 2001), BRICS now includes countries representing almost half the world’s population and more than 35 percent of global economic output, adjusted by purchasing power.

尽管名字有些古怪(是2001年由一位华尔街银行家创造的),但金砖国家现在包括的人口几乎占世界人口一半、按购买力调整后的全球经济产出超过全世界的35%。

The conference is intended to present a hefty showcase of economic might but also entice new countries into a coalition Russia hopes to build that would form a new world order not dominated by the West.

这次会议旨在展示强大的经济实力,同时也吸引新国家加入俄罗斯希望建立的联盟,形成一个不受西方主导的世界新秩序。

“This summit is about Putin punching back,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. Mr. Putin presents his country’s war in Ukraine as “the spearhead of destroying the old world order and helping to build a new one,” Mr. Gabuev said.

“这次峰会是普京的反击,”柏林卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心主任亚历山大·加布耶夫说。他表示,普京将俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争描述为“摧毁旧世界秩序、帮助建立新秩序的先锋”。

“And BRICs is the most potent and representative structure of this new world order,” he added.

 “金砖国家是这个世界新秩序中最有力、最具代表性的结构,”他说。

That was a message Mr. Putin emphasized at a meeting of officials and businessmen last week in Moscow ahead of the summit.

这是普京上周于峰会前在莫斯科跟官员和商人举行的一次会议上强调的信息。

21russia brics master1050去年,俄罗斯总统普京没有亲自出席在约翰内斯堡举行的金砖国家峰会,而是通过视频发表了讲话。

“In the last decade, over 40 percent of the growth in global G.D.P. of the entire world economic dynamics came from the BRICS countries,” Mr. Putin said, asserting that the developed Group of Seven countries is playing a declining role in the global economy.

“在过去10年里,全球GDP增长的40%以上来自金砖国家,”普京说。他声称,发达国家的七国集团在全球经济中的作用正在下降。

“The gap is widening, and it will further widen — this is inevitable,” he said.

“差距正在扩大,而且还会进一步扩大——这是不可避免的,”他说。

Mr. Putin was unable to travel to last year’s summit in South Africa because of a warrant for his arrest issued by the International Criminal Court, to which South Africa is a signatory. While other leaders held high-level bilateral meetings, Mr. Putin was forced to deliver his speech, and hold all his meetings, virtually.

去年,由于国际刑事法院对普京发出逮捕令,他无法前往南非参加峰会。南非是国际刑事法院的签署国之一。当其他领导人举行高级别双边会议时,普京被迫在网上发表讲话、举行所有会晤。

This year, Mr. Putin said he would have 17 bilateral meetings in addition to those in the larger group format.

普京说,今年的峰会上,他将举行17次双边会晤,此外还有更大规模的集体会议。

“Standing next to all of these leaders shaking hands and taking pictures, Vladimir Putin will be trying to tell the world that Russia is not isolated,” Mr. Gabuev said.

“站在所有这些领导人旁边握手、拍照,普京试图告诉世界,俄罗斯并没有被孤立,”加布耶夫说。

The Russian leader will be projecting that “Russia is part of the global majority and the part of the international community that is trying to isolate Russia is the West,” Mr. Gabuev said. “So the West is, by default, the global minority that’s ostracizing Russia.”

这位俄罗斯领导人将表明,“俄罗斯是全球多数国家的一部分,而在国际社会中试图孤立俄罗斯的是西方国家,”加布耶夫说。“因此,按照这个逻辑,西方是排斥俄罗斯的全球少数派。”

Beijing and Moscow are keen to see BRICS expand further, and the Kremlin invited representatives from another 20 countries who have expressed interest in membership to participate in this year’s summit.

北京和莫斯科都渴望看到金砖国家进一步扩大,克里姆林宫邀请了另外20个表示有兴趣加入金砖国家的代表参加今年的峰会。

Both capitals have pushed proposals to dramatically change the global financial system. At the previous summit, there was discussion of creating a BRICS currency, which did not materialize. This year the dominant proposal is for a BRICS payment system, known as BRICS Bridge, that would help Russia circumvent the issues it has had sending and receiving money in global commerce because of sanctions.

这两个国家都提出了大幅改变全球金融体系的建议。在之前的峰会上,曾讨论过创建金砖国家货币,但没有实现。今年的主要提案是建立金砖国家支付系统,称为“金砖之桥”,该系统将帮助俄罗斯规避因制裁而在全球贸易中收付资金的问题。

21russia brics 03 master1050俄罗斯官方媒体提供的一张照片显示,今年5月,俄罗斯总统普京和中国国家主席习近平在北京中南海举行会晤。

Russia’s finance minister, Anton Siluanov, has also tried to muster support for an organization that could serve as a replacement for the International Monetary Fund, which froze contact with Moscow in 2022.

俄罗斯财政部长安东·西卢安诺夫也试图为一个可以取代国际货币基金组织的组织争取支持。国际货币基金组织在2022年冻结了与莫斯科的联系。

While Mr. Putin will get to play the role of host, China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, will arrive at the summit in a commanding position. Mr. Xi is expected to hold a bilateral meeting with Mr. Putin, which would mark the fourth face-to-face meeting between the two leaders since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

普京将扮演东道主的角色,而中国最高领导人习近平将以指挥者的姿态出席峰会。预计习近平将与普京举行双边会晤,这将是自2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来两位领导人的第四次面晤。

Despite growing pressure from the West on China not to aid Russia’s war effort, Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin have deepened their relationship, in no small part because of their shared grievances toward the United States.

尽管西方对中国施加了越来越大的压力,要求中国不要帮助俄罗斯的战争努力,但习近平和普京加深了他们之间的关系,这在很大程度上是因为他们对美国的共同不满。

The host nation of the BRICS gathering has grown ever more reliant on Beijing to sustain its war, and China represents more than 60 percent of the grouping’s economic output. (It was roughly 70 percent before the addition of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.) China’s economic heft within the group allows Beijing to pledge more investments and loans to other members.

金砖国家会议的东道国越来越依赖北京来维持其战争,中国占该集团经济产出的60%以上。(在埃及、埃塞俄比亚、伊朗和阿拉伯联合酋长国加入之前,这一比例约为70%。)中国在该组织中的经济影响力使北京能够承诺向其他成员国提供更多投资和贷款。

“Countries are looking for economic benefits from this association,” said Henry Huiyao Wang, president of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing. “That’s what makes BRICS so attractive. And China being the largest economy in BRICS makes it a magnet.”

“各国都在从这个联盟中寻求经济利益,”北京的全球化智库理事长王辉耀表示。“这就是金砖国家如此具有吸引力的原因。中国是金砖国家中最大的经济体,这使它成为一块磁石。”

Analysts said they would be watching how Mr. Xi interacts with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, and whether the two leaders build on recent diplomatic momentum aimed at easing border tensions. Courting Mr. Modi would allow Mr. Xi to drive something of a wedge between the West and India, which has drawn closer to the United States in recent years as a member of a security grouping called the Quad.

分析人士表示,他们将关注习近平如何与印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪互动,以及两位领导人是否会在最近旨在缓解边境紧张局势的外交势头基础上更进一步。拉拢莫迪可以让习近平在西方和印度之间制造某种裂痕。近年来,作为安全组织四方对话的一员,印度与美国走得更近。

21russia brics 02 master1050中国国家主席习近平、巴西总统卢拉、南非总统拉马福萨和印度总理莫迪去年在约翰内斯堡举行的金砖国家峰会上会面。

“It would be huge if Xi and Modi shake hands, smile and telegraph a message that tensions between the two Asian powers are easing, even just a bit,” said Eric Olander, the editor of the website China Global South Project.

“如果习近平和莫迪握手、微笑,并传达出两个亚洲大国之间的紧张局势正在缓和的信息,哪怕只是一点点,那将是一件大事,”中国全球南方项目网站的主编埃里克·奥兰德说。

Among China’s priorities for BRICS is continued expansion of the group as a way to diminish the power of its chief geopolitical rival, the United States.

中国对金砖国家的优先考虑之一是继续扩大该组织,以削弱其主要地缘政治对手美国的实力。

As Beijing’s relations with the West have frayed over a host of issues — none more damaging than its tacit support for Russia’s war in Ukraine — as China has shifted more attention to courting developing and non-aligned countries. As more countries join BRICS, Beijing can argue, as Moscow does, that it has more legitimacy as a global power than Washington and its club of rich nations, analysts said.

随着北京与西方的关系在一系列问题上出现摩擦——其中最具破坏性的是它对俄罗斯在乌克兰战争的默许支持——中国将更多注意力转向讨好发展中国家和不结盟国家。分析人士说,随着越来越多的国家加入金砖国家,北京可以像莫斯科一样辩称,自己作为全球大国,比华盛顿及其富国俱乐部更有正当性。

“China is keen to cast this as a coalition of the Global South against the U.S.-led West,” Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, said of BRICS. “The caveat is that the bigger the coalition, the less effective its policy coordination and unity.”

“中国热衷于将其塑造成全球南方对抗美国领导的西方的联盟,”华盛顿史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵谈到金砖国家时说。“需要注意的是,联盟规模越大,其政策协调和团结的效果就越差。”

The inability of BRICS foreign ministers to release a joint statement last month at a meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations has come to underscore the difficulties the group faces as it grows.

金砖国家外长上月在联合国会议间隙未能发表联合声明,突显出该组织在发展过程中面临的困难。

Even before expansion, finding agreement was a challenge, largely because of the simmering rivalry between China and India for leadership of the Global South.

即使在扩张之前,达成一致也是一个挑战,主要是因为中国和印度在争夺全球南方领导地位方面的竞争不断加剧。

While China can rely on support from isolated, anti-Western member states like Russia and Iran, it will have difficulty persuading India, Brazil and South Africa, the group’s major democracies, to take a more adversarial stance toward the United States. To those countries, BRICS is a way to strike a balance between Beijing and Washington, not an opportunity to pick sides, experts said.

虽然中国可以依靠俄罗斯和伊朗等孤立的反西方成员国的支持,但它很难说服该组织的主要民主国家印度、巴西和南非对美国采取更加敌对的立场。专家表示,对这些国家来说,金砖国家是在北京和华盛顿之间取得平衡的方式,而不是选边站队的机会。

That has also kept BRICS-curious countries like Saudi Arabia out of the group, at least for the time being. Last year, Saudi Arabia was invited to join the BRICS, but has refrained from doing so, even leaving the question of their participation in the summit open. Last week, Russia’s finance ministry had to roll back comments describing Saudi Arabia as a member of BRICS.

这也使得沙特阿拉伯等对金砖国家感兴趣的国家至少暂时被排除在金砖国家之外。去年,沙特阿拉伯被邀请加入金砖国家,但该国一直没有加入,甚至连参加峰会的问题都没有解决。上周,俄罗斯财政部不得不收回将沙特阿拉伯描述为金砖国家成员的言论。

Mr. Putin visited Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh last December, when he said that Russian-Saudi relations had reached an “unprecedented level.”

去年12月,普京在利雅得会见了沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼,当时他表示,俄罗斯与沙特的关系达到了“前所未有的水平”。

But the oil-rich country is trying to balance its relations with Russia with the need to maintain good ties with the United States and other Western countries.

但是这个石油资源丰富的国家正在努力平衡与俄罗斯的关系,以及与美国和其他西方国家保持良好关系的需要。

The BRICS group has been boosted by the return of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to power in Brazil, which will take over the rotating BRICs presidency from Russia in January 2025. During his first two terms in office, between 2003 and 2011, Mr. Lula helped found the bloc and loudly advocated for more cooperation among developing nations.

巴西总统卢拉重新掌权,将于2025年1月从俄罗斯手中接任金砖国家轮值主席国,这对金砖国家集团起到了推动作用。在2003年至2011年的前两个任期内,卢拉帮助建立了该集团,并大声呼吁发展中国家加强合作。

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