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美国呼吁北京出面阻止朝鲜向乌克兰战场派兵

黄安伟

2024年11月1日

中国国家主席习近平和朝鲜领导人金正恩在中国官方媒体发布的照片中。中国是朝鲜的长期盟友,也是朝鲜最强大的经济和军事伙伴。 Ju Peng/Xinhua, via Associated Press

The Biden administration is turning to an unlikely interlocutor as North Korean troops move into combat position to help Russia in its war in Ukraine.

随着朝鲜军队进入战斗状态在乌克兰战争中协助俄罗斯,拜登政府正在转向一个意想不到的对话者。

To convey threats to North Korea, U.S. officials are talking to China.

为了向朝鲜传达威胁,美国官员正在与中国对话。

And American officials say they hope the conversations further stoke any suspicions China might feel about the troop deployment.

美国官员表示,他们希望这些对话能进一步激起中国对朝鲜军队部署的疑虑。

The U.S. government has assessed that China is uneasy about the rapidly strengthening security partnership between Russia and North Korea. China is North Korea’s longtime ally and its most powerful economic and military partner, but the Russia-North Korea collaboration means Beijing has to increasingly share influence over Pyongyang with Moscow.

美国政府的评估认为,中国对俄罗斯和朝鲜之间迅速加强的安全伙伴关系感到不安。中国是朝鲜的长期盟友,也是其最强大的经济和军事伙伴,但俄罗斯与朝鲜的合作意味着北京不得不更多地与莫斯科分享对平壤的影响力。

And North Korea’s intervention in Ukraine draws Europe deeper into East Asian security matters, which China does not want. On Thursday, North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, its first such test in almost a year, raising alarms among nations around the world.

朝鲜对乌克兰的干预将欧洲更深地卷入东亚安全事务,这是中国不希望看到的。周四,朝鲜发射了一枚洲际弹道导弹,这是它近一年来首次进行此类试验,引起了世界各国的警惕。

The State Department has raised the issue of the troops directly with Chinese officials in recent days, a senior administration official told The New York Times. The latest conversation took place on Tuesday, when Kurt Campbell, the deputy secretary of state, Daniel J. Kritenbrink, the department’s top Asia official, and James O’Brien, the top Europe official, all met with Chinese diplomats for several hours at the home of Ambassador Xie Feng in Washington.

一名高级政府官员对《纽约时报》表示,美国国务院最近几天直接向中国官员提出了派兵的问题。最近的一次对话发生在周二,副国务卿库尔特·坎贝尔、国务院负责亚洲事务的高级官员丹尼尔·克里滕布林克和负责欧洲事务的高级官员詹姆斯·奥布莱恩在谢锋大使位于华盛顿的家中与这位中国外交官进行了几个小时的会谈。

And Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke to Andriy Yermak, a top Ukrainian official, the same day about diplomatic efforts with China and other nations, the official said. Mr. Blinken said at a news conference on Thursday that he expected Russia to send the North Koreans into combat “in the coming days,” and that they would be legitimate military targets once they were in battle.

这名官员说,同一天,国务卿布林肯与乌克兰高级官员安德烈·耶尔马克谈到了与中国和其他国家的外交努力。布林肯在周四的新闻发布会上说,他预计俄罗斯会在“未来几天”将朝鲜人送上战场,一旦参战,他们将成为合法的军事目标。

Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, has urged U.S. agencies to convey the concerns to China and stress potential consequences, a second U.S. official said. The official declined to give more details.

另一位美国官员表示,拜登总统的国家安全顾问沙利文敦促美国各机构向中国传达担忧,并强调潜在后果。这位官员拒绝透露更多细节。

The hope is that China will at the very least pass the message on to Kim Jong-un, the young autocrat leading North Korea, or try to get Mr. Kim to limit or halt the deployment.

他们的希望是中国至少能将这一信息传达给年轻的朝鲜专制领导人金正恩,或试图让他限制或停止该部署。

Even before news of the North Korean troops emerged in public, Mr. Blinken had raised the country’s growing partnership with Russia in recent meetings with Wang Yi, China’s top foreign policy official, the first U.S. official said.

前一位美国官员称,早在朝鲜出兵的消息公开之前,布林肯就在最近与中国最高外交政策官员王毅的会晤中提到了朝鲜与俄罗斯日益加强的伙伴关系。

China and Russia have been getting closer themselves over many years. In February 2022, Beijing announced a “no limits” partnership with Moscow right before the Russian military’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. U.S. officials say China supports Russia’s war efforts by buying Russian oil and doing trade that has helped President Vladimir V. Putin rebuild his country’s defense industry, which is under severe American and European-led sanctions.

这些年来,中俄关系日益密切。2022年2月,在俄罗斯军队全面入侵乌克兰之前,北京宣布与莫斯科建立“没有止境”的伙伴关系。美国官员表示,中国通过购买俄罗斯的石油和贸易来支持俄罗斯的战争,这些贸易帮助普京总统重建了俄罗斯的国防工业。俄罗斯的国防工业正受到美国和欧洲主导的严厉制裁。

So on the surface, it might seem that China would support the idea of North Korean troops fighting with Russia against Ukrainian soldiers.

因此,从表面上看,中国似乎会支持朝鲜军队与俄罗斯一起对抗乌克兰士兵。

Yet China’s views on the issue are murky, and U.S. intelligence agencies are trying to figure out what China’s leader, Xi Jinping, and other top Chinese officials think of the deployment, which Mr. Biden has called “very dangerous.”

然而,中国对这一问题的看法并不明确,美国情报机构正试图弄清中国领导人习近平和其他中国高官对这一被拜登称为“非常危险”的部署的看法,。

The Pentagon announced on Monday that North Korea had sent 10,000 troops to eastern Russia to train for combat and that many were moving to western Russia to fight Ukrainian soldiers who have seized territory in the Kursk region. Some North Korean troops could end up fighting in Ukraine.

五角大楼周一宣布,朝鲜向俄罗斯东部派遣了一万名士兵进行作战训练,其中许多人正前往俄罗斯西部,与夺取库尔斯克地区领土的乌克兰士兵作战。一些朝鲜军队最终可能会在乌克兰作战。

It is reminiscent of the Korean War, when China, North Korea and Russia (then the Soviet Union) fought U.S.-led troops on the Korean Peninsula. But in retrospect, that anti-American alliance was shakier than it appeared, and the nature of its contemporary incarnation is unclear.

这让人想起朝鲜战争,当时中国、朝鲜和俄罗斯(当时的苏联)在朝鲜半岛与美国领导的军队作战。但回过头来看,当时那个反美联盟比表面看起来的样子更不稳固,目前这一联盟的性质也不明确。

American officials and analysts say the three nations with Communist roots are still ideologically aligned against the United States. But they also say China, as the most powerful nation in the group, is uneasy about the renewed bond between Russia and North Korea, which relies on China to prop up its isolated economy.

美国官员和分析人士称,这三个有共产主义根源的国家仍然在意识形态上联合起来反对美国。但他们也表示,作为该集团中最强大的国家,中国对俄罗斯与朝鲜重新建立联系感到不安,朝鲜依赖中国来支撑其孤立的经济。

And China could be irate if European nations get more involved in East Asian security issues — including on Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula — as a result of North Koreans fighting for Russia in Europe, analysts say. China opposes the United States encouraging its Atlantic and Pacific allies and partners to forge greater ties.

而且,分析人士认为,如果欧洲国家因朝鲜人在欧洲为俄罗斯而战,从而更多地介入东亚安全问题,包括台湾和朝鲜半岛问题,可能会激怒中国。中国反对美国鼓励其大西洋和太平洋盟国与合作伙伴建立更紧密的联系。

If there is tension within China over the North Korean troop deployment, American officials would aim to exploit it.

如果中国内部因为朝鲜的军队部署而出现紧张,美国官员就会设法利用这一点。

Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesman, told reporters on Wednesday that the United States had been talking directly to China “to make clear that we think this ought to be a source of concern for China as well as other countries in the region.”

美国国务院发言人马修·米勒周三对记者表示,美国一直在与中国进行直接对话,“以明确表示,我们认为这应该引起中国以及该地区其他国家的关注。”

Last week, John F. Kirby, a White House spokesman, said: “We don’t know how President Xi and the Chinese are looking at this. One would think that — if you take their comments at face value about desiring stability and security in the region, particularly on the Korean Peninsula — one would think that they’re also deeply concerned by this development.”

上周,白宫发言人约翰·科比称:“我们不知道习主席和中方是如何看待此事的。人们会认为,从他们关于希望该地区特别是朝鲜半岛稳定与安全的言论来看,他们应该也会对这一事态发展深表关切"。

“But,” he added, “you can expect that we’ll be communicating with the Chinese about this and certainly sharing our perspectives to the degree we can — and gleaning theirs.”

“但是,”他还说,“我们会就此与中国进行沟通,当然会尽可能地分享我们的观点,并收集他们的观点。”

When asked to comment on the North Korea issue for this article, the Chinese Embassy in Washington referred to remarks by Lin Jian, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, at a news conference last week in Beijing. Answering a question about the North Korean troops, he reiterated China’s main talking point on the Ukraine war: “We hope all parties will promote the de-escalation of the situation and strive for a political settlement.”

当被要求为本文对朝鲜问题发表评论时,中国驻华盛顿大使馆提到了中国外交部发言人林剑上周在北京举行的新闻发布会上的言论。在回答有关朝鲜军队的问题时,他重申了中国在乌克兰战争问题上的主要观点:“中方希望各方推动缓和局势,致力于政治解决。”

American officials also hope allies will express their concerns about North Korea to China. That includes European nations, Japan and South Korea, all of which have important trade ties with China. On Thursday, Mr. Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with their South Korean counterparts in Washington about the issue.

美国官员还希望盟国向中国表达对朝鲜的担忧,包括欧洲国家、日本和韩国,这些国家都与中国有着重要的贸易关系。周四,布林肯和美国国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀三世在华盛顿与韩国对等官员讨论了这个问题。

Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center, said she met with officials in China in September who had a “negative attitude” about Russia-North Korea relations.

史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵说,她今年9月在中国见到的官员对俄朝关系持“负面看法”。

The general view, she said, is that Russia and North Korea have “selfish incentives that have acted against regional peace and stability, and that their alignment will only bolster their capabilities in such endeavors.”

她说,普遍的看法是,俄罗斯和朝鲜有“破坏地区和平与稳定的自私动机,它们的结盟只会增强它们在这方面的能力”。

“More importantly,” she said, “the Chinese detestation of the Russia-North Korea rapprochement comes from the conviction that Kim Jong-un is ‘using Russia to poke China.’”

“更重要的是,”她说,“中国对俄朝关系缓和的厌恶来自于金正恩‘借俄打中’的信念”。

There is no doubt that Chinese officials will be watching to see whether Russia shares nuclear and space technology with North Korea in exchange for its troops.

毫无疑问,中国官员将密切关注俄罗斯是否会与朝鲜分享核技术和太空技术,以换取朝鲜的军队。

“From a Chinese perspective, you’re concerned about specific technologies that the Russians could help with to advance the program that much more,” said John Delury, a historian of modern China and the Cold War. “And there’s also intelligence sharing — this is a classic way that countries with this kind of partnership rapidly upgrade their relationship. If you’re China, you’re worried about Russia and North Korea sharing intelligence, which could include intelligence on China.”

“从中国的角度来看,你担心的是俄罗斯可以帮助进一步推进该项目的具体技术,”研究现代中国和冷战的历史学家鲁乐汉(John Delury)说。“还有情报共享——这是拥有这种伙伴关系的国家迅速提升关系的典型方式。如果你是中国人,你会担心俄罗斯和朝鲜共享情报,其中可能包括有关中国的情报。”

The consequences of North Korean troops fighting in Europe could be far-reaching. Besides possibly bringing Europe deeper into East Asian security discussions, it would most likely reinforce the growing military coalition of Japan, South Korea and the United States, which is aimed at countering both China and North Korea.

朝鲜军队在欧洲作战的后果可能是深远的。除了可能使欧洲更深地参与东亚安全讨论之外,它很可能会加强日本、韩国和美国日益壮大的军事联盟,该联盟旨在对抗中国和朝鲜。

On the other hand, any reservations Chinese officials might have about the North Korean troops could be minor next to the nation’s foreign policy priorities. Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin have formed a strong personal bond over the years, and China has given Russia diplomatic and economic aid throughout the Ukraine war, while stopping short of sending weapons directly to the Russian military.

另一方面,与中国外交政策的优先事项相比,中国官员对朝鲜军队的任何保留可能都是微不足道的。习近平和普京多年来结下了深厚的个人情谊,中国在乌克兰战争期间向俄罗斯提供了外交和经济援助,但没有直接向俄罗斯军队运送武器。

“North Korea’s provision of troops to Russia supports this top-tier priority, even though it also complicates Beijing’s efforts to stabilize relations with Seoul and Tokyo,” said Ryan Hass, a China expert at the Brookings Institution who was on the National Security Council during the Obama administration.

布鲁金斯学会的中国问题专家、曾在奥巴马政府时期担任国家安全委员会成员的何瑞恩(Ryan Hass)说,“朝鲜向俄罗斯提供军队支持了这一首要任务,尽管这也使北京稳定与首尔和东京关系的努力变得复杂。”

“Any American judgment that the Russia-North Korea collaboration will create space to drive a wedge between China and Russia would be built on hope, not evidence,” he added. “China is deeply invested in its relationship with Russia. North Korea’s dispatch of troops is not going to diminish China’s decision to stand firmly behind Putin.”

“美国认为俄罗斯与朝鲜的合作将创造离间中俄的空间,这种判断是基于希望,而非证据,”他还说。“中国在与俄罗斯的关系中投入了非常多。朝鲜派兵不会影响中国坚定支持普京的决心。”

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