Banks in China are foreclosing on a growing number of apartments after homeowners could not pay their mortgages, as the country’s housing crash threatens the financial system.

由于购房者无力偿还房贷，中国的银行正在对越来越多的房产进行法拍。中国的房地产市场崩盘威胁到金融系统。

The roster of homes seized and listed for auction leaped 43 percent last year, according to official data. Numerous Chinese banks have disclosed increases in mortgage defaults during the first half of this year. The downward spiral in apartment prices has since accelerated.

据官方数据，去年没收拍卖的房产数量猛增了43%。中国多家银行披露今年上半年抵押贷款的违约率上升。房价下跌的趋势已在下半年加快。

The legal system is struggling to keep up with evictions. In some cities, like Qingdao, foreclosed apartments are being sold at auction before the occupants have moved out. The buyers must persuade them to leave, finance and foreclosure specialists said.

中国的法律系统难以处理将这么多止赎房的房主逐出屋的工作。在青岛等城市，进入止赎程序的公寓在住户搬走之前就开始拍卖。金融和止赎专家表示，说服住户离开的任务留给了买家。

The increase in evictions and foreclosures, although still modest by American standards, piles onto pressures on China’s banks. They face other losses related to the real estate meltdown, including on loans to local governments, property companies in default and buyers of unfinished apartments that developers never delivered.

进入止赎程序的房主人数，以及将他们赶出房子的工作量都在增加，尽管以美国标准来看，中国的问题还不那么严重，但已给中国的银行带来了压力。这些银行还面临着与房地产崩盘相关的其他损失，包括向地方政府提供的贷款、房地产公司违约，以及楼盘烂尾等。

To make matters worse, corporate borrowers in China have long posted real estate holdings as collateral. Bank managers are finding that the collateral is worth much less than when the loans were extended.

更糟糕的是，中国的企业借款者长期以来一直把房地产作为抵押品。银行的经理们发现，这些抵押品的价值已远低于他们把贷款发放给企业时的价值。

The Chinese government is urging banks to lend more to real estate developers and other borrowers as part of its economic stimulus measures since late September. But the lenders themselves face difficulties.

作为经济刺激措施的一部分，自今年9月下旬以来，中国政府一直在敦促银行向房地产开发商和其他借款人提供更多贷款。但银行自身也面临困难。

“Banks have long been the best ally and instrument of Chinese policymakers, but could soon become their largest problem,” said Alicia García-Herrero, the chief economist for Asia at Natixis, a French financial institution.

“长期以来，银行一直是中国的政策制定者最好的盟友和工具，但很快会成为他们最大的问题，”法国金融机构Natixis的亚洲首席经济学家艾丽西亚·加西亚·耶赫雷罗说。

China’s mostly state-owned banking system has plenty of money, earning over $600 billion a year in profits before setting aside reserves to cover losses on unpaid loans. That means the banks can slowly write off their losses against profits.

中国主要由国家拥有的银行系统资金充裕，在为弥补未偿还贷款的损失拨出准备金之前，每年有近4.3万亿元的利润，这意味着银行能慢慢地用利润将损失冲销。

“They’re going to gradually recognize the losses over the years,” said Yan May, a China banking analyst at the lender UBS.

“它们将用几年的时间逐渐化解损失，”瑞银的中国银行业分析师颜湄之说。

But China’s banks play a crucial role feeding revenue into the national government’s budget. The lenders pay income taxes, transaction taxes and dividends to the finance ministry equal to about 1 percent of China’s economy. Heavy losses would hit bank profits and government revenues.

但中国的银行在为国家政府预算提供收入方面起着至关重要的作用。贷款人向财政部缴纳的所得税、交易税和股息相当于中国经济的1%。巨额损失将打击银行利润和政府收入。

Foreclosures are a particularly sensitive subject in China, where the government keeps a tight grip on society. Regulators pressure banks to avoid taking actions against homeowners that might set off public protests.

在中国，止赎是一个特别敏感的话题，政府对社会有着严格的控制。监管机构向银行施压，不让房主进入止赎程序，以免引发公众抗议。

上海的一个新住宅开发项目，摄于今年9月。中国至少有700万套未完工的公寓。

In a country with 90 million empty apartments after a decades-long construction boom, however, the evictions do not seem to be causing homelessness. Many foreclosures involve second homes, often occupied by friends and relatives of the owner, and seldom involve the primary residences of families.

但驱逐房主似乎并没有导致无家可归的问题，因为中国在经历了数十年的建房热后，目前已有9000万套空置公寓。许多止赎程序涉及的是第二套住房，里面住的通常是房主的亲朋好友，止赎程序很少涉及家庭的主要住所。

Four years ago, the country adopted stronger legal protections for homeowners against evictions. At the time, China’s real estate market was surging and banks were initiating practically no foreclosures.

四年前，中国通过了更强有力地保护房主免受驱逐的法律。当时，中国的房地产市场正在飙升，银行启动的止赎程序少之又少。

Those new rules are now making it hard for banks to evict some homeowners who have defaulted. Bidders who buy apartments in foreclosure auctions must often purchase the apartments sight unseen and then work with neighborhood officials to persuade the occupants to leave, said Martin Zhang, an adviser to buyers of foreclosed properties.

那些新法规现在正在让银行驱逐一些违约房主变得困难。马丁·张（音）为购买法拍房的人提供意见，他说，法拍房的竞标者通常必须在未看房的情况下出价购买，然后与街道工作人员一起说服住在里面的人离开。

That has made many home buyers wary.

这让许多购房者心存疑虑。

“Unless there are no other suitable options, they generally won’t choose foreclosed properties,” said Mr. Zhang, who is based in Qingdao, a port city in Shandong Province.

“除非没有其他的合适选择，他们通常不会购买法拍房，”住在山东省港口城市青岛的张先生说。

But the supply of apartments going up for auction keeps rising. Many have to be auctioned twice. Banks initially try to sell them at a government-regulated discount of 20 percent to the current appraised value. If no one bids, the banks try again at half price.

但法拍房不断增加。许多房产不得不两次拍卖。第一次拍卖时，银行会试图以政府规定的折扣价（即比当前评估价值低20%）的价格出售房产。如果无人出价，银行会以半价再次尝试。

Last year, the number of residential properties auctioned after mortgage foreclosures in China — 389,000 homes — was roughly similar to the number of foreclosures in the United States, which has a quarter of China’s population. The United States had over 2.8 million foreclosures in 2009 and again in 2010, the worst of its housing market collapse during the global financial crisis.

去年，中国的法拍住宅房源挂拍38.9万套，与美国进入止赎程序的房产数量大致相同，而美国人口只是中国人口的四分之一。美国的房地产市场在全球金融危机期间崩溃，在问题最严重的2009年和2010年，美国每年有逾280万套房产进入止赎程序。

In China, the question facing banks and the government is how much worse could the problem get?

中国的银行和政府面临的问题是，问题还会恶化到什么程度？

Real estate prices have fallen almost 30 percent from their peak in 2021.

中国的房地产价格已从2021年的最高值下跌了近30%。

In addition to the rise in foreclosures, at least seven million apartments sit unfinished across China. Analysts at UBS recently estimated that four million of these apartments were bought by Chinese households that took out about $350 billion worth of mortgages.

除了止赎率上升外，中国各地至少还有700万套未完工公寓。据瑞银分析师最近的估计，这些未完工公寓中有400万套是由总计贷款了2.5万亿元的中国家庭购买的。

That works out to nearly 7 percent of all the mortgages on the balance sheets of China’s banks. Regulators have encouraged them not to foreclose on mortgages on unfinished apartments.

这相当于中国银行资产负债表上所有抵押贷款的近7%。监管机构鼓励银行不要对未完工公寓的抵押贷款启动止赎程序。

One factor that might contain the foreclosure problem over the next several years is that many homeowners have prepaid part of their mortgages or made large down payments. Even after the big drop in apartment prices, many people still own apartments that are worth more than the remaining balances on their mortgages.

一个也许能在未来几年帮助控制止赎问题的因素是，许多房主已经预付了部分抵押贷款或支付了大笔首付。即使在房价大幅下跌后，许多房主拥有的房产价值仍高于他们尚未偿还的抵押贷款额。

Lin Chen, 32, paid $200,000 to buy his apartment in Qingdao in 2017. By his estimate, it is worth $135,000 to $150,000 now. But he owes only $84,000 on the apartment because he has paid down the mortgage whenever he has had extra cash.

现年32岁的林陈（音）2017年在青岛购买了一套售价140万的公寓。据他估计，这套公寓现在的价值在98万到108万之间。但他只剩下60万贷款有待偿还，因为他已在有余钱的时候提前偿还了部份房贷。

Mr. Chen, a chemicals salesman, is envious of older relatives and neighbors who bought apartments 20 years ago and are still sitting on big gains. He said he planned to keep his apartment and hoped the price would recover.

陈先生是一名化学品销售员，他羡慕那些20年前买了房的亲戚和邻居们，他们房子的价值现在仍比买的时候高许多。他说，他打算留着这套公寓，希望房价会回升。

“Those of us born in the ’80s and ’90s, we are the unlucky ones,” he said.

“我们这些80后和90后是不幸的一代，”他说。

Paying all or part of mortgages before they are due often makes financial sense in China. Mortgage interest rates were close to 6 percent until recent rate cuts.

在中国，提前偿还全部或部分房贷往往是明智的选择。在最近这几轮降息之前，房贷利率曾接近6%。

青岛房地产价格暴跌已影响到消费支出。

Many Chinese have used money they have borrowed through their small businesses at low rates to repay their home mortgages. Regulators have been leaning on banks to lend more to small enterprises because many are failing during the economic slowdown.

许多中国人曾用他们以小企业的名义借的低利率贷款来偿还房屋抵押贷款。监管机构一直要求银行向小企业提供更多贷款，因为许多小企业在经济放缓期间面临困难。

But the use of small-business loans to repay mortgages has made bankers and regulators nervous because lenders typically obtain little collateral from business borrowers.

但是，用小企业贷款来偿还房贷的做法让银行家和监管机构感到不安，因为放贷方通常从企业借款人那里得不到多少抵押品。

If a foreclosed property is auctioned for less than the balance due on the mortgage, the borrower is personally liable for paying the difference. But banks and regulators, fearing social instability, have been wary of requiring individuals to pay up in these cases unless the borrower has been involved in speculation or fraud.

如果法拍房的拍卖价低于房贷应付余额，借款人将承担支付差额的个人责任。但是，银行和监管机构担心那会带来社会不稳定的问题，因此除非借款人参与了投机或欺诈，不太愿意要求他们个人支付差额。

In the West, many borrowers have mortgage insurance, which requires an insurer to pay the difference to the bank when a foreclosure auction falls short. But in China, fewer than one in 200 mortgages is insured. That could leave banks very vulnerable if real estate prices fall further and foreclosures surge, as many economists predict.

在西方，许多借款人有抵押贷款保险，在止赎拍卖未能达到需偿还的贷款全额时，保险公司要向银行支付差额。但中国只有不到0.5%的抵押贷款上了保险。这会让银行易受伤害，如果房地产价格像许多经济学家预测的那样进一步下跌，进入止赎程序的房子数量激增的话。

Even with the government’s steps, the real estate market in places like Qingdao, on China’s coast, could face years of reckoning. Before their recent tumble, apartment prices there doubled from 2016 to 2021 as speculators bid for vacation homes. A local lender, Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank, has reported sharp jumps in mortgage defaults.

尽管政府采取了有利于房地产市场的措施，像沿海城市青岛这种地方的房地产市场仍可能面临多年的清算。在房地产市场最近暴跌之前，由于投机者竞相购买度假房，青岛的房价从 2016年到2021年翻了一番。当地的青岛农商银行已经报称抵押贷款违约率大幅上升。

One Qingdao homeowner, Lei Wang, said he regretted ever buying an apartment.

一名叫王雷（音）的青岛房主说，他后悔买了房。

Mr. Wang, a chemicals salesman, said his apartment had lost a fifth of its value since he paid about $300,000 for it just four years ago.

王先生也是一名化学品销售员，他说，自从四年前他以210万元的售价买下这套房以来，房子的价值已经降低了20%。

“I thought I bought the apartment at a reasonable price, but I didn’t expect the real estate market to decline so much,” he said. “If I hadn’t bought an apartment and the housing prices were like this, I think it would have been better to rent.”

“我原以为我这套房子买的划算，但我没想到房地产市场会跌这么多，”他说。“如果我没有买房，像现在这样的房价，我会觉得租房更好。”