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美国人在不安、焦虑与恐惧中迎接大选

LISA LERER, KATIE GLUECK

2024年11月5日

Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times

In the American ideal, elections are moments of patriotism, a time for citizens to settle their differences at the ballot box, no matter how fiery the disagreements.

在美国理想中,选举是爱国主义的时刻,是公民通过投票箱解决分歧的时刻,无论分歧有多么激烈。

In the reality of 2024, ballot boxes are, in some places, literally burning.

在2024年的现实中,有些地方,投票箱真的在燃烧。

So it goes in an election that has been darker than any in recent memory. The nation enters this Election Day on edge over possibilities that once seemed unimaginable in 21st-century America: political violence, assassination attempts and vows of retribution against opponents.

因此,这次选举比近期记忆中的任何一次都更加黑暗。选举日来临之际,政治暴力、暗杀企图和发誓报复对手——对21世纪的美国来说曾经难以想象的可能性让这个国家感到不安。

For many voters, the anxiety that pervaded the last election, a socially distanced race that happened amid the coronavirus outbreak, has morphed into a far grimmer feeling of foreboding.

如果说上一次选举是新冠病毒爆发期间一场需要保持社交距离的角逐,对许多选民来说,弥漫在那一次选举中的焦虑,如今已经变成一种更可怕的不祥预感

In dozens of interviews over the final weekend of the campaign, Americans from across the political spectrum reported heading to the polls in battleground states with a sense that their nation was coming undone. While some expressed relief that the long election season was finally nearing an end, it was hard to escape the undercurrent of uneasiness about Election Day and what might follow afterward.

在竞选活动的最后一个周末进行的数十个采访中,来自不同政治派别的美国人都表示,在前往战场州的投票站时,他们感到自己的国家要完了。虽然有些人对漫长的选举季终于接近尾声表示欣慰,但对选举日以及之后可能发生的事情,他们依然难免深感不安。

Those worries reflect the fears of a country that has undergone a tumultuous four years, transformed by a devastating pandemic that killed more than one million Americans, a shocking siege on the nation’s Capitol that upended the nation’s bedrock tradition of a peaceful transition of power, the fall of a nearly half-century-old federal right to abortion and a surge in prices unseen for decades. Across the country, cities have felt the strain of the migrant crisis at the southern border.

这些担忧反映了这个国家的忧惧。这个国家经历了动荡的四年,一场导致100多万美国人死亡的毁灭性流行病,令人震惊的围攻国会大厦事件颠覆了国家和平交接权力的基本传统,延续了近半个世纪的联邦堕胎权被剥夺,几十年来从未见过的物价飙升,这一切都改变了这个国家。全国各地的城市都感受到了南部边境移民危机带来的压力

The presidential candidates themselves have framed the election as an existential battle for the nation’s character, its democracy and the safety of its residents. In their ads and at events, Democrats recount the graphic stories of women who almost died as a result of restrictive abortion bans. As they campaign, Republicans describe brutal crimes by foreign gang members in the country illegally, telling Americans they could be the next victims.

总统候选人把这次选举描述为一场关乎国家特性、民主和居民安全的生死之战。在民主党人的广告和竞选活动中,他们讲述了因限制性堕胎禁令险些丧命的女性的生动故事。而共和党人则在竞选活动中描述了非法入境的外国帮派成员在美国犯下的残忍罪行,告诉美国人他们可能成为下一个受害者。

Many voters expressed concerns about post-election violence.

许多选民对选举后的暴力表示担忧。

04pol mood 2 02 vcbh master1050副总统贺锦丽上周前往拉斯维加斯参加竞选集会。04pol mood 2 03 vcbh master1050周日,在密歇根州诺维市,提前投票的选民在诺维市政中心填写选票。

“I worry about violence,” said Bill Knapp, 70, a retiree from Grand Rapids, Mich., faulting Mr. Trump for that possibility as he mingled with other supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris at a local Democratic campaign office on Saturday. “I’m bracing for that no matter what the outcome is.”

“我担心暴力,”密歇根州大急流城70岁的退休人员比尔·纳普说。周六在当地的民主党竞选办公室与副总统贺锦丽的其他支持者交流时,他指责特朗普有使用暴力的可能性。“无论结果如何,我都做好了准备。”

At an early voting site in Madison, Wis., Chris Glad, 62, was suffering from election fatigue. “I’ll be so glad when it’s over — I think,” she said as she helped her mother into her car.

在威斯康辛州麦迪逊市的一个提前投票点,62岁的克里斯·格莱德对选举感到筋疲力尽。“我想,等一切都结束了,我会很高兴的。”她边说边把母亲扶上车。

And as Cathy Hearn, a factory worker from Landsdale, Pa., waited for a campaign event for former President Donald J. Trump to begin in a suburban Philadelphia parking lot, she offered a four-word prayer: “God is in control.”

凯西·赫恩是宾夕法尼亚州兰兹代尔的一名工厂工人。在费城郊区的一个停车场等待前总统特朗普的竞选活动开始时,她对天祈祷:“一切都在上帝手中。”

The final weeks of the race have been interlaced with notes of genuine violence.

最后几周的竞选里充斥着真正的暴力事件。

The F.B.I. is investigating arson attacks last week of two ballot boxes, where incendiary devices marked with the message “Free Gaza” were found. Schools in Allentown, Pa., closed “out of an abundance of caution” when Mr. Trump held a rally there. In San Marcos, Texas, the police investigated reports of threatening fliers attached to Harris campaign signs, signed “Trump Klan.” And in Florida, outside an early voting site, an 18-year-old man supporting Mr. Trump brandished a machete at two older women backing Ms. Harris.

联邦调查局正在调查上周对两个投票箱的纵火袭击事件,现场发现了标有“解放加沙”字样的燃烧装置。当特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州阿伦敦市举行造势集会时,该市的学校“出于充分谨慎”而关闭。在得克萨斯州的圣马科斯,贺锦丽竞选标语被贴上写着“特朗普三K党”的威胁传单,引来了警方调查。在佛罗里达州的一个提前投票点外,一名支持特朗普的18岁男子向两名支持贺锦丽的年长女性挥舞砍刀。

By Sunday, it felt as if the entire nation was girding for impact. Of what, exactly, no one seemed quite sure.

到周日,整个国家似乎都在准备迎接冲击。具体是什么,似乎没有人能确定。

In Omaha, during a church service at the Lord of Hosts, Hank Kunneman, a pastor who has been an outspoken supporter of Mr. Trump, predicted “payback time” for “a lying party” of Democrats.

在奥马哈,在“万军之主”的教堂礼拜中,直言不讳地支持特朗普的牧师汉克·库内曼预测,民主党这个“撒谎的政党”将迎来“受报复的时刻”。

In Washington, several restaurants near the White House covered their front windows with thick plywood.

在华盛顿,白宫附近的几家餐馆用厚厚的胶合板盖住前窗。

And in Rocky Mount, N.C., Vernon Battle, 67, cast his vote for Ms. Harris and said someone recently suggested that he get a gun to prepare for what might come.

在北卡罗来纳州的落基山,67岁的弗农·巴特尔把票投给了贺锦丽,他说,最近有人建议他买把枪,为可能发生的事情做好准备。

The riot at the Capitol, said the gas station employee, “really just changed things.” His wife, Carolyn, added: “People aren’t what they used to be.”

这位加油站员工说,国会大厦的骚乱“真的改变了一切”。他的妻子卡洛琳也说:“人们已经不是以前的样子了。”

Seeking parallels for this moment in American political life, historians have reached back to some of the darkest days of the nation, frequently citing the Civil War and the upheaval of the 1960s.

为了寻找美国政治生活中这一时刻的相似之处,历史学家们回顾了美国最黑暗的一些日子,他们经常提到南北战争和20世纪60年代的动荡。

But even those times don’t quite share the mix of deep distrust in elections, conspiratorial thinking and vitriolic language of this campaign, said Douglas Brinkley, a presidential historian at Rice University.

但莱斯大学研究总统问题的历史学家道格拉斯·布林克利说,这一次,民众对选举的极度不信任、阴谋论思维和尖刻的言辞混合在一起,即便在那些时代也是没有的。

04pol mood 3 01 zwtj master1050特朗普一直在铺垫,如果输了,就会再次声称大选被窃取。04pol mood 3 02 zwtj master1050共和党人说,他们担心的是国外的不稳定局势、非法移民和选举安全。

“We’re having to just trust in our legal system and say at the end of the day: It will be OK — don’t listen to all the noise, your vote counts,” he said. “Everybody is queasy and anxious and fearful about what’s happening on election night. That should not be what our country offers.”

“我们必须相信我们的法律体系,并在一天结束的时候说:一切都会好起来的——不要理会所有的噪音,你的选票很重要,”他说。“每个人都对选举之夜发生的事情感到不安、焦虑和恐惧。我们的国家不应该是这样的。”

Republicans say they are worried about instability abroad, illegal immigration and election security. Many continue to believe Mr. Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen and expect a repeat. In recent weeks, the former president has been laying the groundwork to again claim that there was large-scale voter fraud if he loses.In Levittown, Pa., a line of dozens of voters waiting to register for early ballots stretched around the government services building on Friday. Melody Rose, 56, standing near the entrance, had been waiting more than seven hours to vote for Mr. Trump, just as she did in 2020 and 2016.

共和党人说,他们担心国外的不稳定、非法移民和选举安全。许多人仍然相信特朗普关于2020年大选被窃取的错误说法,并预计这种情况会重演。最近几周,这位前总统一直在做准备,如果他输了,他将再次声称存在大规模的选民欺诈。在宾夕法尼亚州的莱维敦。周五,数十名等待提前投票登记的选民在政府服务大楼外排起了长队。56岁的梅洛迪·罗斯站在入口处附近,为了投票给特朗普,她已经等了七个多小时,就像她在2020年和2016年所做的那样。

For her, the stakes seemed to be the very foundation of the nation itself. If Ms. Harris wins, Ms. Rose said, she worries about everything from affording a place to live to the outbreak of World War III — a global conflict Mr. Trump frequently warns is all but inevitable unless he retakes the White House.

对她来说,利害攸关的是这个国家的根基。罗斯说,如果贺锦丽获胜,她会担心一切,从负担住处到第三次世界大战爆发——特朗普经常警告说,除非他重新入主白宫,否则这场全球冲突几乎是不可避免的。

“We’ll lose all our freedoms,” she said. “I think there will never be another election season again.”

“我们将失去所有的自由,”她说。“我认为再也不会有选举季了。”

And in a reversal of the 2020 election, some Republicans now baselessly worry that Democrats won’t accept a Trump victory.

与2020年大选相反,一些共和党人现在毫无根据地担心民主党人不会接受特朗普的胜利。

“I don’t know how it’s going to go down” if he wins, said Sue Wirchnianski, a retiree from Horsham, Pa., who called Democrats “the party of violence.”

如果他赢了,“我不知道会发生什么”,宾夕法尼亚州霍舍姆的退休人员苏·维尔奇尼安斯基说,还说民主党是“暴力党”。

Democrats echo Ms. Harris and some of Mr. Trump’s former advisers and conservative critics, saying they fear the country will tip into authoritarian government should he win. They point to his threats to prosecute and imprison a wide range of people he perceives as working against him — including his political opponents, whom he calls the “enemy within,” and even election workers.

民主党人附和贺锦丽以及特朗普的一些前顾问保守派批评者的说法称,他们担心如果特朗普获胜,美国将陷入威权政府。他们指出,特朗普威胁要起诉和监禁他认为反对他的人,包括他称之为“内部敌人”的政治对手,甚至还有选举工作人员。

Bert VanHoek, 75, of Grand Rapids, Mich., drew parallels between the language of today and that surrounding World War II.

密歇根州大急流城75岁的伯特·范霍克将当今的语言与“二战”时期的语言进行了比较。

“Watching any of this come back is terrifying — the fascist language,” said Mr. VanHoek, a Harris supporter who said his family experienced concentration camps. Of Mr. Trump, he added, “He’s a fascist.”

“看到这一切重现是可怕的——法西斯语言,”贺锦丽的支持者范霍克说,他说自己的家人经历过集中营。谈到特朗普时,他说,“他是法西斯。”

Even Democrats who still felt the joy that characterized the earliest days of Ms. Harris’s bid confessed some conflicting feelings about Election Day.

即使是那些仍能感受到贺锦丽竞选初期那种喜悦的民主党人也承认对选举日的感受有些矛盾。

“I feel exhilarated,” said Mary Wardell, 35, a communications manager, before a Harris rally in East Lansing on Sunday. “I also feel sick to my stomach.”

“我很兴奋,”35岁的公关经理玛丽·沃德尔周日在东兰辛参加贺锦丽的集会前说。“同时也觉得胃里翻江倒海。”

The intense divisions of the campaign have extended into the most intimate reaches of American life, dividing communities, families, even marriages. In campaign ads and flyers, Harris supporters have sought to remind women that their votes are private — even from their husbands — an idea that has outraged some of Mr. Trump’s right-wing supporters.

选战的激烈分歧已经延伸到美国人生活中最私密的领域,导致社区、家庭甚至婚姻的分裂。在竞选广告和传单中,贺锦丽的支持者试图提醒女性,她们选谁是她们的隐私——甚至不用丈夫知道——这一想法激怒了特朗普的一些右翼支持者。

Some are now so fearful of clashing with neighbors that they discuss the election only in whispers.

一些人现在非常害怕与邻居发生冲突,所以他们只私下讨论选举。

The only point of bipartisan agreement about the election may be the level of stress that it seems to be causing.

两党在选举问题上唯一达成一致的可能是它所造成的压力之大。

04pol mood 4 01 wctj master1050威斯康辛州麦迪逊市中心的一个橱窗标志。这个蓝墙州是民主党赢得今年总统选举的关键。04pol mood 4 02 wctj master1050随着选举接近尾声,两位候选人都计划在周一举行多场集会。

An annual survey conducted by the American Psychological Association found that the “future of our nation” was the most common stressor for Americans this year. More than seven in 10 adults worried the election results could lead to violence, and 56 percent said they believed the election could be the end of American democracy, according to the poll.

美国心理协会进行的一项年度调查发现,“我们国家的未来”是今年美国人最常见的压力来源。调查显示,超过七成的成年人担心选举结果可能导致暴力,56%的人认为这次选举可能是美国民主的终结。

Yet, amid the anxiety, there are those who are optimistic about life after Election Day.

然而,在焦虑之中,也有人对选举日之后的生活持乐观态度。

Representative Victoria Spartz, Republican of Indiana, told a gathering at Arooga’s Grille, near Hershey, Pa., on Saturday that “the fate of the Republic will be decided in the great state of Pennsylvania.” Natalie Nutt, 49, seemed to take that message to heart.

在宾夕法尼亚州赫尔希附近的阿鲁加格里尔举行的造势集会上,印第安纳州共和党众议员维多利亚·斯帕兹说,“国家的命运将由伟大的宾夕法尼亚州决定。”49岁的娜塔莉·纳特似乎把这句话放在了心上。

“I feel pretty nervous,” said Ms. Nutt, who runs a nonprofit education organization.

“我非常紧张,”纳特说,她经营着一家非营利教育机构。

But when pressed, she turned reflective about the nation’s future.

但在追问时,她开始反思这个国家的未来。

“This is the United States of America; there’s no better country,” she said, a relieved smile crossing her face. “I don’t think it’s the end of the world, no matter what happens.”

“这是美利坚合众国;没有比这更好的国家了,”她的脸上露出了释然的笑容。“我不认为这是世界末日,无论发生什么。”

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