You might be excited about Election Day, dreading it, or desperate for it to be over.

大选日也许让你感到兴奋，让你极为担心，或迫切希望它赶紧过去。

Regardless, it is here.

不管怎样，大选日已经到来。

But the end of this high-drama presidential campaign on election night may not bring immediate clarity about who has won.

但在大选日当晚，这场高度戏剧性的总统大选也许不会立即明确谁是赢家。

The race itself is unlike any other, pitting former President Donald Trump, a man who has essentially been running for president for nine years, against Vice President Kamala Harris, a woman who has been running for about 16 weeks. The contest, which began as a rare rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden, was reset after a televised debate that ended Biden’s bid for reelection and paved the way for Harris’ midsummer ascendance — and it took a violent turn when two would-be assassins made separate attempts on Trump’s life.

这场大选本身就与其他的大选不同，较量的一方是前总统特朗普，他基本上在过去九年里一直在竞选总统，另一方是副总统贺锦丽，她的竞选活动是大约16周前开始的。大选最初是特朗普与拜登总统之间一场罕见的再度较量，但在一场电视辩论结束后，大选重新开始，那场辩论结束了拜登的连任竞选，为贺锦丽在盛夏时成为民主党候选人铺平了道路。此次大选还出现过暴力的转折，两名行刺者先后试图暗杀特朗普未遂。

More than 78 million people have already voted. And as we head into the final day of voting, polling suggests that two candidates who could not be more different — who fundamentally disagree on weighty matters of the economy, women’s rights and the very purpose of government — are locked in an excruciatingly tight contest, with all seven battleground states still in play.

已有逾7800万人提前选票。随着我们进入投票的最后一天，民调显示，两位截然不同的候选人——他们在经济、女性权利、政府的职责等重大问题上存在根本分歧——陷入了一场极其激烈的竞争中，所有七个战场州仍悬而未决。

It could take days or even longer to know who wins. Here’s what to watch as the counting begins.

可能需要几天甚至更长的时间才能知道胜选者。以下是各州的计票开始后可看到的事情。

When will the race actually end?

大选将在什么时候真正结束？

内华达州拉斯维加斯克拉克县的选举工作人员在检查邮寄选票，摄于上周六。

Polling shows Harris and Trump deadlocked in nearly all seven swing states. So the first thing we’ll glean from the returns Tuesday night is not who will win — but just how close the battle is shaping up to be, and how long it might take to determine the winner.

民调显示，贺锦丽和特朗普的支持率在几乎所有七个摇摆州都不相上下。所以，我们从周二晚上的投票结果中看到的第一件事不是谁获胜，而是这场竞选正进行到多么激烈的程度，以及可能需要多长时间才能确定胜选者。

The first battleground state where the polls will close is Georgia, at 7 p.m. Eastern time, followed closely by North Carolina, at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. A majority of voters cast ballots early in both states, and those results are expected to be reported early in the night. The vast majority of ballots in both states are likely to be tallied and reported by midnight. They will give us an early sense of whether the night is shaping up to be a battle of inches, or something more decisive.

佐治亚州是第一个结束投票的战场州，投票在东部时间晚上7点结束，紧随其后的是北卡罗来纳州，投票在东部时间晚上7点30分结束。这两个州的大多数选民已在大选日到来之前投了票，预计这些提前投票的计票结果将在当晚早些时候公布。这两个州的绝大多数选票的计票结果可能会在午夜前公布。这将让我们及早意识到这个夜晚是一场寸土必争的较量，还是一个更具决定性的结局已经出现。

If Harris opens up a lead in either or both states, she will have multiple paths to the 270 electoral votes needed to win, and Trump’s chances of victory will appear to narrow. If Trump has a lead, or if the states appear to be close, it could all come down to the returns from the three so-called Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

如果贺锦丽在这两个州中的一个或在两个州领先的话，她将有多条途径获得获得取胜所需的270张选举人票，而特朗普赢得大选的机会似乎将缩小。如果特朗普领先，或两个州的投票结果难分上下的话，一切都可能取决于宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州、威斯康辛州这三个所谓“蓝墙州”的投票结果。

In Pennsylvania, which both campaigns view as a must-win state, polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time. But because election workers aren’t allowed to start processing mail ballots until Election Day, counting is expected to stretch past Tuesday night. In Michigan, where the last polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern, only about half the ballots were counted by midnight in 2020 and 2022, although recent reforms could speed things up. In Wisconsin, where polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern, counting could stretch late into the night.

宾夕法尼亚州是双方都认为必须拿下的州，该州的投票站将于东部时间晚上8点关闭。但由于选举工作人员只可以在选举日到来后才开始处理邮寄投票，预计计票将持续到周二午夜过后。密歇根州的投票站最晚在东部时间晚上9点关闭。在2020年和2022年的选举日，该州只有约一半的计票是在午夜前完成的，但最近的改革也许会加快计票的速度。威斯康辛州的投票站在东部时间晚上9点关闭，计票可能会持续到深夜。

Trump’s best path to the presidency has long been seen as victories in Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. Harris’ best path is seen as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. If the picture is muddled, we could find ourselves looking west for answers — and that could mean a long wait.

人们长期以来一直认为，特朗普赢得总统大选的最佳途径是在宾夕法尼亚州、佐治亚州、北卡罗来纳州获胜。贺锦丽的最佳途径是在宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州、威斯康辛州获胜。如果这些州的投票结果不明确的话，我们可能要从西部州寻找答案，这可能意味着一个漫长之夜。

The polls in the two Western swing states, Arizona and Nevada, close at 9 p.m. and 10 p.m. Eastern, respectively. But both states rely heavily on mail ballots, and the counting could stretch for days.

西部的两个摇摆州亚利桑那州和内华达州的投票站分别于东部时间晚上9点和晚上10点关闭。但这两个州都主要依赖邮寄投票，计票可能需要数天时间。

In recent elections, all the Blue Wall states have typically voted the same way, but it’s not clear that pattern will hold this year.

在最近几次大选中，所有蓝墙州的投票结果都支持同一方，但今年的结果是否仍是这样目前尚不清楚。

The battleground states aren’t the only place to look for hints about which way the night is going. There are a few congressional races in faster-counting East Coast states, including the 2nd and 7th Districts of Virginia and the 1st District in North Carolina, where an upset could be a sign of bigger success for whichever party prevails.

战场州并不是寻找大选在周二夜晚走向线索的唯一地方。在东海岸计票速度较快的州，有值得注意的众议院席位竞选，包括弗吉尼亚州的第2和第7选区，以及北卡罗来纳州的第1选区，如果这些选区爆冷的话，可能会预示胜选者所在党的更大胜利。

Our best advice for Tuesday night, and maybe the days beyond, is to remain patient.

我们对周二晚以及未来几天的最佳建议是保持耐心。

A system under pressure.

系统承受着压力。

前总统特朗普上周五在密歇根州的沃伦市。他在竞选期间一直对选举的公正性表示怀疑。

In 2020, Trump falsely declared victory just after 2 a.m. on election night, sowing doubt among his supporters about Biden’s eventual victory and the elections system itself — and stoking a movement that eventually culminated in the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

2020年，特朗普在大选日午夜过后的凌晨2点曾错误地宣布获胜，在他的支持者中播下了对拜登最终获胜，以及选举制度本身有问题的怀疑，煽动了一场最终导致2021年1月6日袭击国会大厦事件的运动。

In recent weeks, Trump has reached into that the same playbook, inaccurately claiming that voting machines can change people’s votes and wrongly suggesting that the only way Harris can win is if she cheats.

特朗普已在最近几周使用同样的伎俩，错误地声称投票机能改变人们的选票，并错误地暗示贺锦丽获胜的唯一途径是作弊。

Another premature declaration of victory could raise the likelihood of postelection discord and create additional strain on a system already bearing the weight of election denial, as pro-Trump activists spread unfounded claims of fraud. Lawyers on both sides are poised to litigate these matters until the bitter end.

再次过早地宣布胜利可能会增加大选后出现纠纷的可能性，并给已承受着否认选举结果压力的系统带来进一步的压力，因为支持特朗普的活动人士散布有关选举舞弊的毫无根据的指控。双方的律师都在准备对有关问题提起诉讼，直到最后。

Whose gambles paid off?

谁赌对了？

Both parties took enormous risks this year. Republicans nominated Trump, an unpopular political figure who lost his last campaign. They put the pursuit of young, male and nonwhite voters who don’t always make it to the polls at the heart of their strategy. And they outsourced much of their ground game to groups with little experience.

民主党和共和党今年都冒了巨大的风险。共和党提名特朗普为候选人，这名不受欢迎的政治人物已在上次的大选中失败。共和党把争取年轻、男性和非白人选民作为竞选战略的核心，这些选民并不总会去投票。他们将大部分基层竞选工作外包给了缺乏经验的团体。

Democrats, for their part, nominated the oldest candidate in history in Biden. When he dropped out under pressure, they threw their support to Harris and pursued an unusual tactic of their own: outreach to Republicans.

民主党则提名了拜登，他是有史以来年龄最大的候选人。拜登迫于压力退选后，他们转而支持贺锦丽，他们也采取了一个不同寻常的策略：向共和党人伸出双臂。

The election results will tell a story about what worked and what did not.

选举结果将告诉人们哪些做法奏效，哪些无效。

Does the abortion rights movement maintain its momentum?

维护堕胎权的运动是否保持了势头？

在密歇根州周日的一个拉票活动上，民主党志愿者在听众议员黛比·丁格尔发表演讲。

Since the Dobbs decision overturned the constitutional right to an abortion in 2022, supporters of abortion rights have enjoyed an series of victories as they have sought to protect those rights on the state level. On Tuesday, voters in 10 more states will decide whether to enshrine abortion rights into their constitutions.

自从美国最高法院2022年对多布斯案的裁决推翻了受宪法保护的堕胎权以来，堕胎权支持者在寻求该权得到州级法律保护上取得了一系列的胜利。在周二的选举日，还将有10个州的选民对是否将堕胎权写入州宪法进行投票。

Referendums in red states including Florida, Montana, South Dakota and Missouri will test whether abortion rights have essentially transcended partisanship, since they will almost certainly require Republican support to pass. But in purple states, they will also test the limits of abortion as a motivating factor for other Democratic candidates. In Arizona and Nevada, polling suggests some voters may back abortion rights and also vote for Trump for president.

在佛罗里达州、蒙大拿州、南达科他州和密苏里州等红州进行的全民公投将检验堕胎权是否已超越了党派之争，因为让堕胎合法在这些州获得通过几乎肯定需要共和党人投票支持。但在紫州，堕胎权也将检验其他民主党候选人将其作为激励选民因素的极限。在亚利桑那州和内华达州，民调暗示，一些选民可能会支持堕胎权，同时把选总统的票投给特朗普。

Republicans could close in on a Senate majority, but it’s not a done deal.

共和党人可能会赢得参议院多数席位，但这不是板上钉钉的事情。

Control of the House and Senate is on the line, but it may take some time before we know how it will shake out.

众议院和参议院的控制权都有危险，但我们也许需要一段时间才能知道调整的结果。

Control of the Senate has long seemed like Republicans’ to lose, but we may not know for sure until later in the night. Republicans are practically guaranteed to pick up a seat in West Virginia, where the polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time. In Montana, where the polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern, Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat, has been trailing his Republican challenger. That race might determine the balance of power in the Senate.

共和党似乎会失去参议院的控制权是人们由来已久的看法，但我们可能要等到周二更晚的时候才能知道确切的结果。共和党人几乎肯定会赢得西弗吉尼亚州在联邦参议院的一个席位，该州的投票于东部时间晚上7点30分结束。蒙大拿州的投票于东部时间晚上10点结束，现任参议员、民主党人乔恩·泰斯特一直落后于他的共和党挑战者。那场竞选可能会决定参议院的权力平衡。

To get a sense of how deep the Democratic losses could go, keep an eye on Ohio, where the polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern and most of the vote should be counted on election night. A strong performance by Sen. Sherrod Brown would be a good sign for Democrats; an upset could be a harbinger of more trouble for Democrats in slower-counting states where incumbents face tough races, including in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

要想知道民主党在参议院可能丢掉多少席位，需要关注俄亥俄州，该州的投票将于东部时间晚上7点30分结束，大部分选票结果应该在选举日当夜统计出来。如果现任参议员谢罗德·布朗获胜，那对民主党来说是个好兆头；如果布朗失利的话，那可能会预示民主党人在计票速度较慢的州面临更多麻烦，包括威斯康星州和宾夕法尼亚州，这两个州的现任联邦参议员都面临着艰难的竞争挑战。

But there are also two states where Republicans are unexpectedly on defense. In Nebraska, Sen. Deb Fischer is facing a surprisingly tough challenge from independent labor activist Dan Osborn. And in Texas, where most vote counting is expected to be done on election night, polling shows the Democratic challenger, Colin Allred, in striking distance of Sen. Ted Cruz.

但也有两个共和党人处于出人意料的守势的州。内布拉斯加州的联邦参议员德布·菲舍尔面临着来自独立劳工活动人士丹·奥斯本出人意料的严峻挑战。而得克萨斯州的民调显示，民主党挑战者科林·奥尔雷德与现任参议员特德·克鲁兹的差距很小，预计该州的大部分选票将在大举日当夜统计出来。

蒙大拿州现任联邦参议员、民主党人乔恩·泰斯特在争取连任的竞选中与共和党人蒂姆·希伊势均力敌。

Determining control of the House could take days — or weeks.

确定众议院的控制权可能需要数天或数周时间。

The battle for the House majority is shaping up to be one of the tightest contests in recent memory. The path to victory is widely seen as running through competitive districts in New York and California, where Democrats are facing dissatisfaction from centrist voters. California, in particular, will take time to sort out: Polls there close at 11 p.m. Eastern, and the state relies heavily on mail ballots, which can take weeks to count.

众议院多数席位之争正在成为近年来最激烈的竞争之一。一个普遍的看法是，通向胜利之路必经纽约州和加利福尼亚州的两个竞争激烈的选区，这两个选区的民主党人面临着中间派选民的不满。加利福尼亚州的选举结果出来尤其需要时间，加州的投票站于东部时间晚上11点关闭，而且加州有很多人靠邮寄投票，这可能需要数周时间才能统计出来。

There are several districts to watch to get a sense of the way things might be headed. New York’s 22nd District, in the Syracuse area, is widely seen as likely to flip from red to blue, so strength by Rep. Brandon Williams would be a good sign for Republicans. In the Hudson Valley, a strong showing by Democrat Mondaire Jones against Rep. Mike Lawler, a Republican, could be a sign that Democrats were on track to reclaim the House.

为了解事态的发展方向，有几个选区值得关注。位于锡拉丘兹地区的纽约第22选区被普遍认为可能会从红变蓝，所以如果现任联邦众议员布兰登·威廉姆斯表现强劲，那对共和党来说是个好兆头。在哈德逊河谷，如果民主党候选人蒙代尔·琼斯能击败现任众议员、共和党人迈克·劳勒的话，那可能预示民主党有望夺回众议院控制权。

Keep an eye, also, on a pair of competitive districts in Iowa, where Democrats are hoping that backlash to the state’s restrictive abortion law will help them unseat two Republicans. There are also several competitive districts in Pennsylvania, including a stiff challenge faced by Rep. Scott Perry, an election-denying ally of Trump, that could play a role in determining the chamber’s balance of power.

还要注意一下爱荷华州两个竞争激烈的选区，民主党人对他们能击败两名现任联邦众议员的共和党人充满希望，认为人们对该州严格限制堕胎的法律的强烈反对能帮助民主党获胜。宾夕法尼亚州也有几个竞争激烈的选区，包括现任联邦众议员斯科特·佩里所在的选区，他是否认特朗普败选的支持者，此次面临严峻的连任挑战，他的输赢可能会对决定众议院的权力平衡起到作用。