With Donald Trump’s sweeping election victory Tuesday, the world is now preparing for another four years of unpredictability and “America First” protectionism that could reset the ground rules of the global economy, empower autocrats and erase the assurance of U.S. protection for democratic partners.

随着特朗普周二在大选中获得压倒性胜利，世界现在正准备迎接又一个四年的不可预测性和“美国优先”保护主义，这可能会重新设定全球经济的基本规则，赋予威权者权力，并抹去美国保护民主伙伴的保证。

Despite a lack of substantive foreign policy debate in the campaign, Trump has made several statements that — if turned into policy — would transform America’s relationship with both allies and adversaries. He has pledged to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, a promise many assume amounts to the withdrawal of U.S. aid for Ukraine, which would benefit Russia.

尽管在竞选中缺乏实质性的外交政策辩论，但特朗普发表了几项声明，如果它们转化为政策，将改变美国与盟友和对手的关系。他承诺在24小时内结束乌克兰战争，许多人认为这一承诺相当于撤回美国对乌克兰的援助，这将使俄罗斯受益。

More broadly, he has made clear that he intends to make the world’s most powerful country more isolationist, more combative with tariffs, more openly hostile to immigrants, more demanding of its security partners, and less engaged on global challenges such as climate change.

在更广泛的层面，他已经明确表示，他打算让世界上最强大的国家更加奉行孤立主义，在关税问题上更加好斗，更公开地敌视移民，对其安全伙伴更加苛刻，并减少对气候变化等全球挑战的参与。

Many believe the impacts could be greater than anything seen since the start of the Cold War.

许多人认为，其影响可能比冷战开始以来的任何事件都要大。

周三凌晨，特朗普在佛罗里达州棕榈滩向支持者发表讲话。

“It accelerates the already deep trend of an America looking inward,” said James Curran, a professor of modern history at the University of Sydney. “Allies are going to have to save the multilateral furniture while it’s still around — they have to hope that America buys back in.”

“这加速了美国本已非常深刻的内转趋势，”悉尼大学现代史教授詹姆斯·柯伦说。“盟友们将不得不在多边机制尚存时挽救它——他们只能希望美国会重新参与。”

Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani of Italy told Sky News he believed Trump had “a natural sympathy for Italy.” He said he was “convinced that we will work well with the tycoon’s new administration.”

意大利外交部长安东尼奥·塔亚尼在接受天空新闻采访时表示，他相信特朗普“对意大利有着天然的共情”。他说他“相信我们会与这位大亨的新政府合作良好”。

周一，在新墨西哥州桑兰帕克的美墨边境，移民被美国边境巡逻队特工拘捕后接受身份审核等处理程序。

In Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum said Wednesday that there would be “good relations” with the United States, despite Trump’s recent threats to impose mammoth tariffs on her country. “There is no reason to worry,” she said. “Mexico always comes out ahead.”

在墨西哥，总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆周三表示，尽管特朗普最近威胁要对墨西哥征收巨额关税，但墨西哥将与美国保持“良好关系”。她说：“没有理由担心。墨西哥总能获益。”

In Kenya, Ndindi Nyoro, a lawmaker with President William Ruto’s governing coalition, said he thought Trump’s economic policies would be better for African countries, many of which are struggling with growing inflation and crushing debt.

在肯尼亚，总统威廉·鲁托执政联盟的议员恩丁迪·尼约罗表示，他认为特朗普的经济政策对非洲国家更有利，许多非洲国家正努力应对不断上升的通货膨胀和沉重的债务。

“Republican policies have always been better for Africa & the Global South,” Nyoro wrote on Facebook.

“共和党的政策对非洲和全球南方国家一直更有利，”尼约罗在Facebook上写道。

India has also been watching the U.S. contest with interest and little concern, trusting that as the world’s most populous nation and fifth largest economy, it would still be courted as a counterweight to China.

印度也一直饶有兴致地关注着美国大选，但对结果并不担心，他们相信，作为世界上人口最多的国家和第五大经济体，印度仍将被视为制衡中国的力量。

Bracing for a Return to Transactional Diplomacy

为重返交易型外交做准备

The extremes of what Trump campaigned on — from sky-high tariffs against foreign products, to mass deportations and stiff resistance to wars and alliances deemed too messy or costly — have already put many nations on edge.

特朗普竞选时提出的极端政策——从对外国产品征收高额关税，到大规模驱逐移民，再到坚决抵制被认为过于混乱或代价高昂的战争和联盟——已经让许多国家感到不安。

China, with its own economy in the doldrums, faces the likelihood of much broader, and higher tariffs than those already applied during Trump’s first term and continued by President Joe Biden. Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing, said a second Trump presidency would “inevitably diminish global trust and respect for the United States.”

正经历经济低迷的中国可能面临比特朗普第一任期内已经实施、后由拜登总统继续实施的关税范围更广、税额更高的关税。中国人民大学国际关系学教授时殷弘表示，特朗普的第二任期将“不可避免地削弱全球对美国的信任和尊重”。

Few of China’s neighbors, wary of Beijing, see cause for celebration in Trump’s victory.

在对北京持警惕态度的中国邻国中，几乎没有哪个国家认为特朗普胜选值得庆祝。

South Korea and Japan expect to be pressured into paying more to have U.S. troops based in their countries. Trump has pledged to make South Korea pay $10 billion annually. South Korea currently pays a little over $1 billion.

韩国和日本预计将受到压力，不得不为在他们国家驻扎的美军支付更多费用。特朗普已宣称要让韩国每年支付100亿美元。韩国目前支付的费用略高于10亿美元。

3月，美国和韩国士兵在韩国进行军事演习。

Vietnam, which has seen its trade imbalance with the United States surge as manufacturers move from China to avoid tariffs, could face retaliatory tariffs like those Trump has threatened to impose on Mexico.

随着制造商从中国迁出以避免关税，越南与美国的贸易不平衡激增，现在，越南可能面临特朗普威胁对墨西哥征收的那种报复性关税。

Fears of a Less Secure World

担心世界更不安全

Some diplomats in Asia have said that with Trump in power, they also expect China to intensify pressure on Taiwan, if not invade the self-governing island it claims as its territory. In their view, China may calculate that Trump would not go to war for a democracy that he has accused of “stealing” the microchip industry from the United States.

一些驻亚洲的外交官表示，随着特朗普上台，他们预计中国会加大对台湾的压力，甚至入侵这个被中国称为自己领土的自治岛屿。在他们看来，中国可能认为特朗普不会为一个民主政体而开战，他曾指责台湾“窃取”了美国的芯片产业。

For Ukraine, Trump’s return means a fog of additional danger. His claim that he will be able to broker an end to the war immediately along with his warm relations with President Vladimir Putin of Russia have fueled worries that he would force the Ukrainians into a bad deal by cutting off U.S. military support.

对乌克兰来说，特朗普的回归意味着迷雾中的更多危险。他声称自己能够立即促成战争结束，再加上他与俄罗斯总统普京关系融洽，人们担心他会通过切断美国的军事支持，迫使乌克兰人达成一项糟糕的协议。

2019年，日本大阪，特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京。

In Russia, there were hints of glee over Trump’s victory, even as the Kremlin held off on offering immediate congratulations. One of Putin’s top lieutenants, Dmitry Medvedev, said Wednesday that Trump was preferable for his cold, corporate acumen.

尽管克里姆林宫没有立即向特朗普表示祝贺，但俄罗斯还是对特朗普的胜利表现出欣喜的迹象。普京的高级副手之一德米特里·梅德韦杰夫周三表示，有着冷酷商业头脑的特朗普上台更好。

Trump, Medvedev said, “dislikes spending money on various hangers-on,” referring to Ukraine’s president.

梅德韦杰夫说，特朗普“不喜欢把资金花在各种附庸者身上”，他指的是乌克兰总统。

Anxiety and Unease Among Democratic Partners

民主党盟友的焦虑和不安

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine said last week that he “understands all the risks” of a Trump victory. But on Wednesday he wrote on the social platform X that he appreciated “President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs.”

乌克兰总统泽连斯基上周表示，他“了解特朗普获胜的所有风险”。但周三，他在社交平台X上写道，他赞赏“特朗普总统致力于在全球事务中采取‘以实力求和平’的做法”。

But many of Ukraine’s supporters in the region are “woefully unprepared for a return of Trump,” said Georgina Wright, a European politics expert at the Montaigne Institute in Paris. Analysts and officials on the Continent expect a trade war, a bigger bill for NATO and military aid from Washington, a Trump-encouraged spread of anti-democratic populism, and a greater risk of Russia widening its territorial ambitions.

但巴黎蒙田研究所的欧洲政治专家乔治娜·赖特表示，该地区的许多乌克兰支持者“很不幸地对特朗普的回归毫无准备”。欧洲大陆的分析人士和官员预计将有一场贸易战；北约将必须投入更多资金，也为来自华盛顿的军事援助支付更多费用；在特朗普鼓励下，反民主的民粹主义将会蔓延；俄罗斯扩大领土野心的风险也将增大。

Trump has implied that he would not abide by the NATO article requiring collective defense, which kept Europe mostly peaceful and democratic for decades. At one point during his run for office, he said he would “encourage” Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to countries that had not paid sufficient money to the alliance.

特朗普暗示他不会遵守北约要求集体防御的条款，数十年来，该条款一直令欧洲保持了和平与民主。在竞选期间，他曾表示，他将“鼓励”俄罗斯对那些没有向北约支付足够资金的国家“为所欲为”。

上个月，乌克兰西维尔斯克遭到破坏的景象。该市一直遭受来自东部俄罗斯占领区的炮击。

While publicly congratulating Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz huddled Wednesday morning to discuss European strategy toward a transactional president whose country not only is a strategic security ally, but remains Europe’s biggest trade partner. “We will work towards a more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe in this new context,” Macron said on X.

在公开祝贺特朗普的同时，法国总统马克龙和德国总理肖尔茨周三上午聚在一起，讨论欧洲对这位交易型总统的战略，这位总统的国家不仅是欧洲战略安全盟友，并且仍然是欧洲最大的贸易伙伴。“在这种新背景下，我们将努力建立一个更团结、更强大、更有主权的欧洲，”马克龙在X上说。

For Some, a Welcome Change

对某些人来说，这是可喜的变化

And yet, in some countries, Trump’s testosterone-fueled approach has led to a measure of hope.

然而，在一些国家，特朗普充满雄心壮志的做法带来了一定程度的希望。

In the Middle East, the United States has largely been seen as ineffective — unable to end the cycle of conflict or even forge a solid cease-fire. Trump, to some, represents the potential for a new way forward, seen by many in the region as strongly pro-Israel but also as a dealmaker.

在中东，美国在很大程度上被视为毫无作为——无法结束冲突循环，甚至无法达成稳固的停火协议。对某些人来说，特朗普代表着一条前进新路的潜力，该地区许多人认为他强烈支持以色列，但也是一位交易撮合者。

The far right in Israel was fist-pumping a Trump victory even before the last polls had closed, figuring that he could be persuaded to side with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in any attempt to end the wars in the Gaza Strip and against Iran’s proxies in the region. When Trump’s win looked inevitable early Wednesday, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the ultranationalist minister of national security in Israel, posted a festive “Yesssss” on social media.

甚至在最后的投票站关闭之前，以色列极右翼就开始为特朗普的胜利而振臂高呼，认为特朗普可以被说服，支持总理内塔尼亚胡，结束加沙地带的战争，乃至针对伊朗在该地区代理人的战争。周三早些时候，当特朗普的获胜似乎不可避免时，以色列极端民族主义国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本·格维尔在社交媒体上发贴庆贺，“太好了！”。

周三，耶路撒冷，特朗普的支持者观看大选。

Palestinians condemned U.S. support for the wars, expressing a mix of fear and dreams for what a new administration might bring. Hamas, in a statement, said, “Palestinians look forward to an immediate cessation of the aggression against our people.”

巴勒斯坦人谴责美国对战争的支持，对新政府可能带来的后果既感到恐惧，又充满幻想。哈马斯在一份声明中表示：“巴勒斯坦人期盼着对我们人民的侵略立即停止。”

In Lebanon and among some of its Arab neighbors, a second Trump term seemed to be cautiously welcomed.

在黎巴嫩及其一些阿拉伯邻国中，特朗普连任似乎受到谨慎欢迎。

“He’s crazy, but at least he’s strong,” said Anthony Samrani, the editor-in-chief of the Lebanese daily L’Orient-Le Jour, summing up what he called the prevailing mindset toward Trump in the Middle East.

“他很疯狂，但至少他很强大，”黎巴嫩日报《东方日报》主编安东尼·萨姆拉尼总结了他所称的中东对特朗普的普遍心态。

Among the most enthusiastic about Trump’s win was Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, who has suppressed dissent to create an ethnocentric, illiberal democracy in his country. He congratulated Trump on Wednesday for “his enormous win” that he called “a much needed victory for the world!”

对特朗普获胜最热情的人之一是匈牙利总理欧尔班·维克托，他压制异议，在自己的国家建立以种族为中心的非自由民主。周三，他祝贺特朗普“取得了巨大的胜利”，并称这是“世界急需的胜利！”

Impact on Immigration

对移民的影响

The widest-ranging and perhaps most immediate impact of Trump’s victory on the world may involve immigration.

特朗普胜选对世界最广泛、或许也是最直接的影响，可能就是移民问题。

He has promised that among his first acts in office would be mass deportations for millions of immigrants in the United States illegally. Critics worry that within weeks, that could mean daily planeloads of returnees to not just Mexico, but also India, El Salvador and the Philippines.

他承诺，上任后将采取的首批行动之一就是大规模驱逐数以百万计的非法移民。批评人士担心，这可能意味着数周内每天都会有大批人被飞机遣返回墨西哥，甚至印度、萨尔瓦多和菲律宾。