Eight years ago, when a newly elected Donald J. Trump promised to apply the powers of the Oval Office to start a trade war with China, the target of his ire was widely viewed as a juggernaut. China was the indispensable factory floor to the world and a swiftly developing market for goods and services.

八年前，当新当选的特朗普承诺动用总统手中的各种权力与中国打一场贸易战时，他的怒火所对准的目标曾被广泛视为一股势不可挡的力量。中国是世界不可或缺的工厂，也是一个快速发展的商品和服务市场。

As Mr. Trump now prepares for his second stint in the White House, he is vowing to intensify trade hostilities with China by imposing additional tariffs of 60 percent or more on all Chinese imports. He is pressuring a country that has been chastened by a powerful combination of overlapping forces: the calamitous end of a real estate investment binge, incalculable losses in the banking system, a local government debt crisis, flagging economic growth and chronically low prices — a potential harbinger of long-term stagnation.

随着特朗普现在准备第二次入主白宫，他誓言要加剧与中国的贸易对抗，对所有中国进口产品加征60%或更高的关税。他正在向一个已受到多重问题困扰的国家施压，中国的房地产投资狂潮已造成了灾难性后果，银行系统面临着难以估量的损失，地方政府陷入债务危机，经济增长乏力，还有难以解决的物价下行问题——这可能是经济将长期停滞的先兆。

The decline of fortunes at home has made Chinese companies especially focused on sales abroad. And that makes the country vulnerable to any threat to its export growth, a weakness that would enhance the expected pressure from the Trump administration as it plans to seek a deal that would increase Chinese purchases of American goods.

国内的不景气让中国企业格外关注海外市场，这使得中国的出口变得脆弱，稍有风吹草动都会受到影响。而这一弱点又将加剧来自特朗普政府的预期压力，因为它正在寻求以某种方式迫使中国增加购买美国商品。

“The balance of power has certainly shifted in favor of the United States,” said Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University who was previously the head of the China division at the International Monetary Fund. “The Chinese economy is not quite on the ropes, but it has been struggling for a while.”

“力量平衡肯定已向对美国有利的方向倾斜，”在康奈尔大学研究贸易政策的教授埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德说，他曾任国际货币基金组织的中国部门负责人。“虽然中国经济还没有完全濒于失败，但它已经挣扎了一段时间。”

Yet complicating factors beneath that widely shared assessment may strengthen China’s ability to endure whatever measures the incoming Trump administration may have in store.

但在这一普遍持有的看法背后，也存在使问题复杂化的种种因素，它们也许能增强中国承受即将上任的特朗普政府可能采取的任何措施的能力。

虽然中国的消费者已减少了支出，但政府拥有大量资源来刺激国内经济。

Most immediately, the Chinese government possesses formidable resources to stoke the domestic economy. After long declining to loosen credit for fear of reviving investment in real estate, China’s central bank this year lowered borrowing costs for homeowners and businesses. On Friday, the government approved a $1.4 trillion rescue plan that would allow local governments to refinance existing debts at lower rates of interest.

最直接的因素是，中国政府拥有刺激国内经济的巨大资源。由于担心房地产投资再次增长，一直拒绝放松信贷的中国央行今年已数次降低买房者和企业的借贷成本。周五，政府批准了一项10万亿元的救助方案，让地方政府以更低的利率对现有债务进行再融资。

At the same time, a government-led strategy to advance the nation’s industrial prowess has turned China into the dominant supplier of electric vehicles and other clean energy technologies. That gives Chinese companies a hold on rapidly growing markets for critical wares regardless of American tariffs. In an era of rising alarm over climate change, the world can either use Chinese-made gear to limit carbon emissions or shun Chinese industry. At least for now, it is struggling to do both.

与此同时，政府主导的提升国家工业实力的战略已使中国成为电动汽车和其他清洁能源技术的主要供应国。这让中国企业得以控制关键产品快速增长的市场，不管美国加征多少关税。在人们对气候变化日益担忧的时代，世界要么用中国制造的东西来减少碳排放，要么避开中国的工业。至少在目前，世界正苦于无法两件事都做到。

China is less dependent on access to American markets than it was the last time Mr. Trump ratcheted up tariffs. The wave of American import duties imposed by the Trump administration, beginning in 2018 and continuing under the Biden administration, eventually covered some $400 billion in Chinese goods. Chinese factories in turn looked to Southeast Asia and Latin America for customers.

与特朗普上次提高关税时相比，中国对美国市场的依赖程度已经有所降低。特朗普政府从2018年开始对从中国进口的大范围产品加征关税，并在拜登政府期间持续，最终覆盖了约4000亿美元的中国商品。中国工厂则相应地将目光投向了东南亚和拉丁美洲市场。

Over the last six years, China’s share of American imports has dropped to 13 percent from 20 percent, according to TS Lombard, an investment research firm in London, though some of that shift reflects goods that end up in the United States after being routed through countries like Mexico and Vietnam in order to avoid American tariffs.

据伦敦投资研究公司TS Lombard的数据，在过去六年里，中国在美国进口商品中占的份额已从20%降到13%，但这种降低在一定程度上反映的是，为了避开美国的关税，一些商品是经墨西哥和越南等国转口，最终进入美国的。

As Europe has more recently added its own tariffs to Chinese-made electric vehicles, China has accelerated its push to expand sales in other regions.

随着欧盟最近对中国制造的电动汽车加征关税，中国加快了在其他地区扩大销售的步伐。

“Beijing is using the Global South to offset the loss of market share to the West,” said Jie Yu, a senior research fellow at Chatham House in London.

“北京正在用全球南方来抵消市场份额被西方夺走的影响，”伦敦皇家国际事务研究所高级研究员于洁说。

中国面临着多重挑战：房地产繁荣已经崩溃，银行面临巨额亏损，地方政府陷入债务危机，国内经济增长放缓。

China’s leaders have taken a similar approach to goods like agricultural commodities, shifting some purchases of soybeans from American farmers to suppliers in Brazil and Argentina.

中国领导人对农产品等商品也采取了类似的做法，将部分大豆采购从美国转移到了巴西和阿根廷的供应商。

That experience may give Beijing confidence that it can hold firm against escalating tariffs and retaliate with reductions in American imports, especially of agricultural products. China could also further restrict its exports of critical minerals.

这一经验可能让北京有信心，觉得它能在不断升级的关税面前不让步，并通过减少从美国进口商品（尤其是农产品）来进行反击。中国还可能进一步限制关键矿产品的出口。

“China has more leverage than the first time around,” said Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “It has a range of tools it can mobilize to push back and put some hurt on the U.S. economy if it believes Trump is pursuing outright economic war.”

“与特朗普第一次加征关税时相比，中国有了更多的筹码，”华盛顿战略与国际研究中心的中国问题专家甘思德(Scott Kennedy)说。“如果中国认为特朗普正在发动一场全面经济战争的话，它在反制美国上有一系列可动用的工具，并能给美国的经济造成一定的伤害。”

Mr. Trump may opt to moderate his threats of tariffs, concluding that the American economy would be imperiled by them. Economists warn that widespread taxes on imports would increase consumer prices and stymie domestic manufacturers that rely on imported components.

特朗普也许会得出美国经济将受到关税威胁的结论，从而选择缓和他的关税威胁。经济学家警告，对大范围的进口产品征收关税将推高消费者支付的价格，阻碍依赖进口零部件的国内制造商。

Still, if Mr. Trump does follow through, Chinese industry would suffer.

尽管如此，如果特朗普真的提高关税的话，中国的工业将受到影响。

Exports would plunge by 8 percent over the following year while shaving 2 percent off China’s annual economic growth, estimates Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group, an Australian financial services firm. And if Mr. Trump seeks to close off imports of goods made by Chinese companies in other countries like Mexico, the damage would be greater still.

据澳大利亚金融服务公司麦格理集团的大中华区首席经济学家胡伟俊估计，在加征关税后的一年里，中国对美国的出口将暴跌8%，同时让中国的年度经济增长率下降两个百分点。如果特朗普寻求阻止中国公司将它们在墨西哥等其他国家生产的商品出口到美国的话，中国的损失将会更大。

China’s increased susceptibility to trade disruption is underscored by the fact that the country now produces 17 percent of global exports, up from 12 percent during Mr. Trump’s first term, according to TS Lombard.

据TS Lombard的数据，中国目前生产占全球出口17%的产品，高于特朗普第一任期里的12%，这一事实凸显了中国受贸易中断影响的敏感度已有所增加。

Chinese industry is often described as being dominated by large, state-owned companies that are governed through crippling bureaucracy and the imperatives of the ruling Communist Party, making them ill-suited to adjust to changing market conditions — another ostensible source of American leverage.

关于中国的工业，通常的说法是由大型国有企业主导，这些企业受制于臃肿的官僚体制和执政的中共的要求，因此不适合适应不断变化的市场条件，这是让美国的杠杆起作用的又一个表面原因。

中国已加快了在西方以外地区扩大电动汽车销售的努力。

But this conception misses the emergence of a vast and far more nimble private sector, which now accounts for roughly half of Chinese exports, compared with 9 percent for state-owned companies, according to Nicholas R. Lardy, a China expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

但总部设在华盛顿的彼得森国际经济研究所的中国问题专家尼古拉斯·拉迪说，这种设想忽略了中国庞大且更加灵活的民营经济。民营企业目前生产的产品约占中国出口的一半，而国有企业仅生产中国出口产品的9%。

“This has been a tremendous structural change,” Mr. Lardy said. “It gives them more adaptability.”

“这是一个巨大的结构性变化，”拉迪说。“它给了中国更多的适应能力。”

The Chinese government has the capacity to compensate for diminished exports by turning on spending, experts say. It can deploy its state-owned banks and corporate giants toward national goals like economic growth.

专家们说，中国政府有能力通过扩大开支来弥补出口减少。它能调动国有银行和企业巨头来实现经济增长等国家目标。

So far, the stimulus plans emerging from Beijing have been more gradual and modest than some anticipated. Still, they have resonated as a signal that China’s leaders are concerned about public dissatisfaction with stagnating living standards and have resolved to promote economic growth.

到目前为止，中国政府出台的经济刺激方案比一些人预期的更为渐进和温和。尽管如此，这些方案已经引发回想，表明中国领导人由于担心公众对停滞不前的生活水平不满，已决心推动经济增长。

“Traders I speak to in China, they describe it as going from your deathbed straight to a nightclub,” Rory Green, chief China economist at TS Lombard, said. “It’s a huge change in an array of policies.”

“与我交谈的中国交易员形容这就像是从临终之榻直接跑进了夜总会，”TS Lombard的首席中国经济学家罗里·格林说。“一系列的政策发生了巨大的变化。”

The pivot toward stimulus by Beijing underscores a central feature of the Chinese system in adapting to shocks. Ruled by the all-powerful Chinese Communist Party, the country operates with draconian controls on individual expression and absent free elections. Yet once the Party settles on the need for an emergency course, it has the power to quickly establish policies free of the impediments found in democratic societies.

中国政府转向刺激政策，凸显了中国体制适应冲击的一个核心特点。在权力无限的中共统治下，中国严厉控制个人言论，没有自由选举。然而，一旦中共决定采取紧急行动，它有迅速制定政策的能力，不受民主社会里常见的那些障碍的限制。

“In terms of moving quickly and resolving a crisis, the C.C.P. is highly effective,” Mr. Green said. “They have a lot of levers to pull.”

“中共迅速行动和解决危机的效率很高，”格林说。“他们有很多可以拉动的杠杆。”

China’s president, Xi Jinping, has spent the last decade consolidating power and securing an unlimited claim on his office.

中国国家主席习近平在过去十年里一直在巩固权力，已确保了自己的任期不会受到任何限制。

在特朗普2017年担任总统后，中国领导人习近平推进了一项计划，帮助中国在先进技术行业取得了非凡的成就。

When Mr. Trump first took office in 2017, Mr. Xi was only four years into his tenure and still legally restricted to two five-year terms. He had only recently embarked on an initiative known as Made in China 2025: The government directed cheap land, voluminous state credit and highly trained experts toward increasing the country’s capacity in 10 advanced technology industries.

特朗普2017年第一次担任总统时，习近平的国家主席任期刚进入第四年，法律上，他仍受到两个五年任期的限制。那时，他刚开始实施一项名为《中国制造2025》的计划：政府为提高本国在10个先进技术行业的能力，将投入廉价的土地、大量的国有信贷，以及训练有素的专家。

In crucial areas, that plan has achieved extraordinary returns. China now controls at least 60 percent of the global capacity to make solar cells, wind turbines, batteries and other components for energy systems that reduce carbon emissions, according to the International Energy Agency. Chinese investment amounts to an even higher share of announced expansions.

在一些关键领域，这个计划取得了非凡的结果。据国际能源署，中国目前控制着全球至少60%的太阳能电池板、风力涡轮机、电池和其他减少碳排放的能源系统部件的产能。中国的投资在已宣布的扩张中所占的比例甚至更高。

Chinese companies are increasingly dominant in the realm of mobile telephones, with eight of the 10 largest brands by volume headquartered in China, according to a study by the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

据加拿大亚太基金会的一项研究，中国公司正在移动电话领域占据越来越多的主导地位，按销量计算的十大品牌中有八个总部位于中国。

In one regard, the Chinese plan has pointedly failed to achieve a critical objective — closing the gap in capability that separates domestic computer chips from the most advanced varieties made in Taiwan, using technology from the United States, Europe and Japan.

在另一个方面，中国的计划在一个关键目标上明显地失败了——未能缩小国产计算机芯片与台湾制造的最先进芯片之间的差距，后者生产的芯片用了来自欧美和日本的技术。

The Biden administration has employed export controls on American companies while pressuring allies to withhold technology that could allow Chinese industry to catch up.

拜登政府已对美国公司向中国出口采取了管制措施，同时向盟友施压，要求他们不要向中国出口使其半导体工业能够赶上来的技术。

But that campaign may have indirectly increased China’s ability to withstand whatever trade restrictions are on the way, some experts assert.

但一些专家声称，美国的出口限制可能间接地提高了中国抵御任何即将出台的贸易限制的能力。

“These export restrictions are accelerating China’s drive for self-sufficiency,” Mr. Lardy, the Peterson Institute economist, said. “This idea that we can slow them down across the board strikes me as uninformed.”

“这些出口限制正在加速中国自给自足的努力，”彼得森国际经济研究所的经济学家拉迪说。“认为我们能整体地减缓中国的发展速度的想法，在我看来是不明智的。”

Mr. Trump’s next wave of proposed tariffs would present a challenge. Yet it would also reinforce a notion that has gained currency in Beijing: that China can no longer rely on foreign markets to supply needed components and technologies.

特朗普提出的下一轮关税将给中国带来挑战。然而，它也将强化一个在中国政府内部越来越广泛流行的观点：中国不能再依赖国外市场来供应其所需的零部件和技术。

“Chinese leadership will learn a hard lesson that they cannot really depend on anyone but themselves,” said Lynette Ong, professor of Chinese politics at the University of Toronto. “Trump’s second term may be a gift for China’s economic self-reliance.”

“中国的领导层将学到一个惨痛的教训，那就是，他们确实不能依靠任何人，只能依靠自己，”多伦多大学研究中国政治的教授王慧玲说。“特朗普的第二任期也许是送给中国经济自力更生的一份礼物。”