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尹锡悦深陷危机:他为何孤注一掷进行政治豪赌?

CHOE SANG-HUN

2024年12月5日

韩国总统尹锡悦宣布紧急戒严后,抗议者在首尔的国会大厦外阻挡一辆军车,摄于周三。 Chang W. Lee/The New York Times

For Yoon Suk Yeol, the unpopular president of South Korea, things appeared to worsen with each passing day. Thousands of doctors had been on strike for almost a year to resist his health care reforms. The opposition in Parliament repeatedly pushed for investigations into his wife, as well as the impeachment of his cabinet members, accusing them of corruption and abuse of power. And the lawmakers blocked many of Mr. Yoon’s bills and political appointments.

对于韩国不得人心的总统尹锡悦,情况似乎一天比一天糟。数千名医生为抵制他的医疗改革已罢工将近一年。国会里的反对派一再推动对他的妻子进行调查,并弹劾他的内阁成员,指控他们腐败和滥用权力。这些议员还阻止了尹锡悦的多项法案和政治任命。

On Tuesday night, Mr. Yoon took a desperate measure, his boldest political gamble that he said was driven by frustration and crisis. In a surprise, nationally televised address, he declared martial law, the first time in the country in decades. The move banned all political activities, civil gatherings and “fake news” in what he called an attempt to save his country from “pro-North Korean” and “anti-state forces.”

本周二晚,尹锡悦采取了孤注一掷的措施。他表示进行这场最大胆的政治赌博是出于沮丧和危机感。在对全国发表电视讲话时,他突然宣布了戒严令,这是韩国几十年来的第一次。戒严令禁止了一切政治活动、公民集会和“假新闻”,他称此举是为了让国家不被“亲朝鲜反国家势力”者“剿灭掠夺”。

But it ended almost as abruptly as it had started.

但戒严令的解除几乎与宣布来得一样突然。

Thousands of citizens took to the streets, chanting “Impeach Yoon Suk Yeol!” Opposition lawmakers climbed the walls into the National Assembly as citizens pushed​ back police. Parliamentary aides used furniture and fire extinguishers to prevent armed paratroopers from entering the Assembly’s main hall. Inside, lawmakers who included members of Mr. Yoon’s own People Power Party, voted unanimously to strike down his martial law. Six hours after declaring it, Mr. Yoon appeared on television again, this time to retract his decision.

成千上万的韩国公民走上街头,高呼“弹劾尹锡悦”。在民众拦挡警察的同时,反对派议员翻墙进入国会。国会助理们用家具和灭火器阻止了特种部队进入国会大厅。在国会大厅内,全体议员,包括尹锡悦所在的国民力量党的议员都对解除戒严令投了赞成票。宣布戒严令六小时后,尹锡悦再次出现在电视上,这次是撤回他的决定。

04yoon reconstruct fchk master1050士兵们在周二宣布戒严令后试图进入国会大厦正厅。

It was the shortest-lived and most bizarre martial law in ​the history of South Korea, which had had its share of military coups and periods of martial law before it became a vibrant democracy after the military dictatorship that ended in the late 1980s.

这是韩国历史上最短命、最离奇的戒严。韩国已在20世纪80年代末结束了军事独裁统治,成为一个充满活力的民主国家,那之前,韩国曾经历过多次军事政变和戒严时期。

In the end, driven by his own impulsiveness and surrounded by a small group of insiders, who seldom said no to a leader known for angry outbursts, Mr. Yoon shot his own foot,​ according to a former aide and political analysts.​ Now his political future ​is on the chopping block​, thrusting one of the United States’ most important allies in Asia into political upheaval and leaving many South Koreans in a state of shock.

据一名前助手和政治分析人士,尹锡悦身边的内部圈子很小,里面的人很少对这名以爱发脾气著称的领导人说“不”,最终,尹锡悦在他本人的一时冲动驱使下,搬起石头砸了自己的脚。现在,他的政治未来处于危险境地,他把美国在亚洲最重要的盟友之一推入了政治动荡,也让许多韩国人感到震惊。

On Wednesday, the opposition parties, which control the legislature, submitted an impeachment bill after Mr. Yoon did not respond to their demand that he resign because his martial law declaration had been unconstitutional. An editorial in the leading conservative daily Chosun Ilbo, which has often been friendly toward Mr. Yoon, now accused him of “insulting” South Korean democracy. South Koreans have not seen their leader declare martial law since former military dictator Chun Doo-hwan used it to seize power in 1979​ and later massacre pro-democracy students.

拥有立法机构半数以上席位的反对派已于周三提出一项弹劾法案,因为尹锡悦宣布戒严令违宪,而他没有回应他们提出的下台要求。主要的保守派报纸、以前经常对尹锡悦友好的《朝鲜日报》现在在一篇社论中指责他“侮辱”韩国民主。自从前军事独裁者全斗焕在1979年使用戒严令夺取了政权,后来以戒严为由屠杀支持民主的学生以来,韩国人还没有看到过他们的领导人宣布戒严令。

04yoon reconstruct gmtb master1050抗议者在首尔的国会大厦附近高呼要求解除戒严,摄于周三。

“The best option Yoon has now is to resign,” said Sung Deuk Hahm, a professor of political science at Kyonggi University, west of Seoul. “As tragic as it may seem, what happened overnight showed the resilience and durability of South Korean democracy.”

“尹锡悦现在最好的选择是辞职,”京畿大学政治学教授咸成得说,该校位于首尔西部。“尽管这也许显得很不幸,但发生在前一夜的事情表明了韩国民主的恢复力和持久性。”

Mr. Yoon did not immediately respond to the opposition’s demand. On Wednesday, all senior aides to Mr. Yoon tendered their resignations to Mr. Yoon, leaving him more isolated than ever. Analysts were skeptical about ​Mr. Yoon’s political future.

尹锡悦没有马上回应反对派的要求。周三,尹锡悦所有的高级助手都已向尹锡悦递交了辞呈,使得他比以往任何时候都更加孤立。分析人士对尹锡悦的政治未来持怀疑态度。

“I don’t think he can finish his five-year term,” said Kang Won-taek, a political scientist at Seoul National University.

“我不认为他能干满他的五年任期,”首尔国立大学政治学家姜元泽(音)说。

On Wednesday, Mr. Yoon’s office said the president’s decision to declare martial law was an inevitable measure in accordance with the constitution to “restore and normalize the state of affairs” from political paralysis.

周三,尹锡悦办公室表示,总统宣布戒严令的决定是不可避免的措施,是依据宪法让国家从政治瘫痪中“恢复到正常状态”。

Mr. Yoon has grown increasingly despondent in recent months, particularly over escalating scandals surrounding him and his wife and the relentless political pressure from the opposition, said Mr. Hahm, who has known Mr. Yoon since before his election.​

在尹锡悦当总统前就认识他的咸成得说,尹锡悦近几个月来对事态的发展越来越绝望,尤其是围绕着他和妻子的丑闻不断升级,以及反对派不断施加的政治压力。

“Things have become too much for him,” ​Mr. Hahm said. “He became mentally unstable under political pressure.”

“事情对他来说已变得难以承受,”咸成得说。“他的精神状态已在政治压力下变得不稳定。”

04yoon reconstruct vlcj master1050韩国主要的反对党民主党党员们用障碍物挡住了首尔国会大厦的入口,摄于周三。

Mr. Yoon was surrounded by a handful of aides, including former military generals, who were not used to second-guessing their boss’s decision, said a former presidential aide to Mr. Yoon who agreed to discuss the president’s leadership style on the condition they not be identified. That small circle raised questions about how thoroughly Mr. Yoon prepared for martial law.

据一名曾在尹锡悦手下担任总统助理的人说,尹锡悦身边有几名助手,包括前军事将领,他们很少会质疑上司的决定。这名前助理同意在不具名的条件下讨论总统的领导作风。那个圈子很小,让人怀疑尹锡悦对宣布戒严令是否作出充分的准备。

The former presidential aide said that as soon as he heard the declaration of martial law, he called contacts in Mr. Yoon’s office and other branches of the government. But none of them had advance knowledge of what was coming, he said.

该前总统助理称,他一听到戒严令,就给尹锡悦办公室和政府其他部门的熟人打了电话。但他们事先都对此事一无所知,他说。

Even top leaders of Mr. Yoon’s party said they learned of the declaration through the news media. Kim Byung-joo, an opposition lawmaker and former general, told MBC Radio on Wednesday that when he called army generals near the border with North Korea, none of them knew what was happening. Paratroopers mobilized to occupy the National Assembly showed none of the decisiveness and brutality their predecessors used in the 1980 crackdown on pro-democracy activists, when as many as hundreds were killed in the southern city of Gwangju during Mr. Chun’s period of martial law. On Wednesday, the soldiers peacefully retreated after the Assembly voted to repeal Mr. Yoon’s action.

甚至连尹锡悦所在政党的高层领导也表示,他们是从新闻中得知戒严消息的。反对派议员、退役将军金炳柱周三对韩国文化广播公司说,他给在韩朝边境附近的陆军将领们打电话时,他们都不知道发生了什么。同样是受命占领国会,特种部队没有表现出1980年军队在镇压民主活动人士时的果断和残暴,当时南部城市光州有几百人在全斗焕实施戒严令期间被枪杀。周三,国会投票解除了尹锡悦的戒严令后,特种部队和平地撤出了国会。

04yoon reconstruct mgpl master10501980年5月,学生示威者要求结束戒严,并要求时任总理的申铉碻和曾任韩国中央情报局局长的全斗焕中将辞职。

Some opposition lawmakers and social media commentators speculated that Mr. Yoon might be preparing for martial law when he appointed Kim Yong-hyun, his chief bodyguard and former army general, as his defense minister in September. ​But members of his government called the idea a conspiracy theory, and not many people took it seriously.

一些反对派议员和社交媒体评论员猜测,尹锡悦今年9月任命金龙显为国防部长官时可能已在为戒严做准备,金龙显是陆军退役将领,曾任总统保安室长。但尹锡悦政府成员将这个说法称为阴谋论,称没有多少人把它当真。

Before he was catapulted into the presidential race in 2022, Mr. Yoon was a political neophyte. He was a star prosecutor who wielded the law to help imprison two former presidents, and was used to a strictly top-down culture.

在2022年成为总统大选的黑马之前,尹锡悦是一名政治新手。他曾是一名明星检察官,利用法律帮助将两名前总统送进了监狱,他习惯于严格的自上而下文化。

He won the election by a razor-thin margin, thanks largely to the public’s discontent with his predecessor, Moon Jae-in. But, from the start, he laid out big ambitions, seemingly staking his claim for a legacy as a change maker in a gridlocked political system.

他以微弱优势在总统大选中获胜,那在很大程度上要归功于公众对前任文在寅的不满。但他从一开始就有雄心勃勃的打算,似乎想给自己留下一笔政治遗产,成为打破政治体系僵局的变革者。

Mr. Yoon put South Korea back on a path toward embracing more nuclear power, mended ties with Japan and expanded military cooperation with the United States and Japan as he took a harder line against North Korea.

尹锡悦让韩国重新走上使用更多核电的道路,修复了与日本的关系,扩大了与美国和日本的军事合作,同时对朝鲜采取了更强硬的立场。

But little of his domestic agenda has worked out. His opponents won even greater control in the National Assembly in parliamentary elections this year. His government was accused of using prosecutors and criminal investigations to intimidate opposition leaders and crack down on news media he accused of spreading “fake news​.” ​His approval rating plummeted to around 20 percent, as he repeatedly vetoed the opposition’s demands for independent investigations into allegations against his wife, Kim Keon Hee. The opposition also imposed large changes on his budget proposals for next year.

但他的国内议程几乎毫无进展。他的对手们在今年的议会选举中赢得了更大的控制权。他的政府被指控使用起诉和刑事调查来恐吓反对派领导人,打击被他指责为传播“假新闻”的新闻媒体。由于他多次否决反对派提出的对其妻金建希的指控进行独立调查的要求,他的支持率已跌到20%左右。反对派还对他明年的预算提案做了大量修改。

04yoon reconstruct ghcq master1050反对派领导人聚集在首尔国会大厦台阶上举行抗议活动,要求逮捕尹锡悦,并要求他辞职。

Mr. Yoon was often called a “tribal leader” by political analysts for his penchant for appointing loyal friends among former prosecutors and fellow high school alumni to key military and government posts.​

尹锡悦经常被政治分析人士称为“部落领袖”,因为他喜欢任命他当检察官时的忠实朋友和高中同学担任军事和政府要职。

One of ​them was Han Dong-hoon, Mr. Yoon’s loyal lieutenant when he was prosecutor general. As president, Mr. Yoon appointed Mr. Han as justice minister and later helped make him the head of his governing party. But they fell out over differences in how to handle allegations against the first lady.

其中包括韩东勋,他曾是尹锡悦担任检察长时的忠实副手。尹锡悦就任总统后任命韩东勋为法务部长官,后来还帮助他当选了执政党党魁。但他们因如何处理针对第一夫人的指控发生了分歧。

They ​grew to dislike each other so much ​that Mr. Yoon considered Mr. Han a betrayer, ​according to former aides and local media.

据前助手和当地媒体,他们变得如此讨厌对方,以至于尹锡悦认为韩东勋背叛了他。

“He must have felt that he was surrounded by enemies and that he must make a bold decision,” said Ahn Byong-jin, a political scientist at Kyung Hee University in Seoul. “But it’s mind-boggling that he didn’t know how it would be received by the National Assembly and the people.”

“他一定是觉得自己被敌人包围着,必须做出大胆的决定,”首尔庆熙大学的政治学家安秉镇(音)说。“但令人不解的是,他竟然不知道国会和人民会怎样看待这个决定。”

Mr. Hahm, the professor, said Mr. Yoon was an impulsive man surrounded by “sycophantic aides​.” When he met the president after his party’s crushing defeat in parliamentary elections in April, he was surprised that Mr. Yoon had become more “obstinate and talkative,” Mr. Hahm said.

咸成得说,尹锡悦是个易冲动的人,身边都是些“阿谀奉承的助手”。尹锡悦所在的政党在今年4月的议会选举中惨败后,咸成得曾与总统见过面,他对尹锡悦已变得更加“固执和健谈”感到惊讶,咸成得说道。

04yoon reconstruct jczv master1050今年7月,曾任国民力量党临时党魁的韩东勋在首尔西北的高阳市举行的全国代表大会上当选为该党新任党魁后,发表感言。

Mr. Yoon appeared to live with conflicting emotions, Mr. Hahm said. On one hand, he brimmed with optimism that things would work out almost miraculously, as they had in his previous career. On the other, he feared that he would end up a failed president with no positive legacy to speak of — a result he seemingly ensured when he moved to use the military against his opponents Tuesday night.

咸成得说,尹锡悦似乎生活在矛盾的情绪之中。一方面,他充满乐观,认为事情会几乎奇迹般地顺利发展,就像他在以前的职业生涯中经历的那样。另一方面,他担心自己会最终成为一名失败的总统,没有留下值得一提的正面政治遗产,他周二晚动用军队对付对手的行动似乎确保了这个结果。

“I think those two emotions have combined to lead him to his decision,” he said.

“我觉得这两种情绪结合在一起导致他做出了那个决定,”咸成得说。

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