茉莉花新闻网

中華青年思想與行動的聚合地

叙利亚一夜变天,你需要了解的五大问题

《纽约时报》

2024年12月9日

周五,反对派占领叙利亚哈马后的叙利亚反对派战士。 Ghaith Alsayed/Associated Press

Syrian rebel forces have taken Damascus in a lightning offensive and President Bashar al-Assad has fled the country, in a stunning turn of events after 13 years of civil war.

叙利亚反政府武装在闪电攻势中占领了大马士革,总统巴沙尔·阿萨德逃离该国,这是该国经历了13年内战后令人震惊的形势转变。

The rebels swept through the country in less than 10 days, after more than decade in which various factions had tried to unseat Mr. al-Assad.

十多年来,各个派别一直试图推翻阿萨德,而叛军在不到十天的时间里就席卷了整个国家。

The Syrian civil war began during the Arab Spring and escalated into a bloody, multifaceted conflict involving domestic opposition groups, extremist factions and international powers, including the United States, Iran and Russia. More than 500,000 Syrians have died, and millions more have fled their homes.

叙利亚内战始于阿拉伯之春,后来升级为一场多层面的血腥冲突,涉及国内反对派、极端主义派别,以及包括美国、伊朗和俄罗斯在内的国际力量。超过50万叙利亚人丧生,数百万人逃离家园。

Here’s a guide to understanding how the rebels unseated Mr. al-Assad, and what may come next.

本文帮助您了解叛军如何推翻了阿萨德,以及接下来将发生什么。

What is the situation on the ground?

当地情况如何?

In just over a week, Syrian rebel forces seized much of Syria’s northwest. First, the rebels captured Syria’s largest city, Aleppo, then Hama and Homs. On Sunday, they entered Syria’s capital, Damascus, taking the city without a fight as government forces fled.

仅用了一周多时间,叙利亚叛军就占领了叙利亚西北部大部分地区。首先,叛军占领了叙利亚最大的城市阿勒颇,然后是哈马和霍姆斯。周日,他们进入叙利亚首都大马士革,政府军溃逃,叛军不战而胜。

Videos shared on social media and verified by The New York Times show Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who spearheaded the lightning offensive, entering the Umayyad mosque in Damascus, as crowds gathered around him.

社交媒体上分享并经《纽约时报》证实的视频显示,带头发起闪电攻势的阿布·穆罕默德·戈拉尼在人群簇拥下进入了大马士革的伍麦叶清真寺。

Where is Bashar al-Assad?

巴沙尔·阿萨德在哪里?

Syria’s president fled to Russia, according to Russian state media outlets and two Iranian officials. The reports could not be immediately confirmed, and there was no comment from Mr. al-Assad. His former prime minister, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, stayed behind and said he was ready to cooperate with the rebels.

据俄罗斯国家媒体和两名伊朗官员称,叙利亚总统已逃往俄罗斯。这些报道无法立即得到证实,阿萨德也未发表公开言论。他的前总理穆罕默德·加齐·贾拉利留在了叙利亚,表示愿与叛军合作。

Mr. al-Assad’s government kept rebel forces at bay for more than a decade with Iranian and Russian military support. But it collapsed with astonishing speed over the last week, culminating with rebels taking control of Damascus on Sunday morning.

在伊朗和俄罗斯的军事支持下,阿萨德政府十多年来一直成功压制了叛军。但在上周,阿萨德政府以惊人的速度垮台,最终导致叛军于周日上午控制了大马士革。

07syria mega explainer vqgl master1050周日,阿萨德的官邸。

Mr. al-Assad was central to the protracted and devastating civil war that began in 2011. His family — who are Alawites, a minority sect that is an offshoot of Shiite Islam — had run Syria since a 1970 coup.

这场旷日持久、破坏性极强的内战始于2011年,阿萨德是其核心人物。他的家族属于阿拉维派,是什叶派伊斯兰教的一个小分支,自1970年政变以来一直统治着叙利亚。

Mr. al-Assad initially portrayed himself as a modern reformist, but he responded to peaceful protests during the Arab Spring with brutal crackdowns, sparking a nationwide uprising.

阿萨德最初将自己描绘成现代改革派,但他在阿拉伯之春期间对和平抗议活动进行了残酷的镇压,在全国各地引发起义。

His family’s dynasty bombed and detained thousands of opponents, building fearsome internal security agencies to quash unrest. As the rebels advanced this weekend, they took over many of the notorious prisons where the Assad regime had for decades imprisoned, tortured and executed political prisoners.

他的家族王朝轰炸并拘禁了数以千计的反对者,建立了可怕的内部安全机构来平息动乱。本周末,叛军在推进过程中占领了许多臭名昭著的监狱,几十年来,阿萨德政权一直在那里监禁、折磨和处决政治犯。

Who are the rebels?

叛军是谁?

The main rebel group behind Assad’s ouster is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, whose name means Organization for the Liberation of the Levant. It began to come together at the beginning of Syria’s civil war, when jihadists formed the Nusra Front to fight pro-Assad forces with hundreds of insurgent and suicide attacks.

推翻阿萨德政权的主要反叛组织是“沙姆解放组织”——这一名称意为黎凡特解放组织。该组织在叙利亚内战初期开始组建,当时圣战分子组建了“努斯拉阵线”,以数百次叛乱和自杀式袭击对抗亲阿萨德的武装力量。

The group had early links to the Islamic State, and then to Al Qaeda. But by mid-2016, the Nusra Front was trying to shed its extremist roots, banding together with several other factions to establish Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The United States and other Western countries still consider it a terrorist group.

该组织最初与伊斯兰国有联系,后来又与基地组织有联系。但到了2016年年中,“努斯拉阵线”试图摆脱极端主义根源,与其他几个派别联合成立了“沙姆解放组织”。美国和其他西方国家仍将其视为恐怖组织。

07 syria mega explainer 02 hmpv master10502021年,“沙姆解放组织”的战士在叛军控制的伊德利前线阵地。

The group’s leader, Mr. al-Jolani, told The New York Times his primary goal was to “liberate Syria from this oppressive regime.” He has tried to gain legitimacy by providing services to residents in his stronghold of Idlib.

该组织头目戈拉尼告诉《纽约时报》,他的首要目标是“将叙利亚从压迫政权中解放出来”。他试图通过为其大本营伊德利卜的居民提供服务来获得合法性。

Who is the rebel leader?

叛军首领是谁?

Mr. al-Jolani, 42, was born Ahmed Hussein al-Shara in Saudi Arabia, the child of Syrian exiles, according to Arab media reports. In the late 1980s, his family moved back to Syria, and in 2003, he went to neighboring Iraq to join Al Qaeda and fight the U.S. occupation.

据阿拉伯媒体报道,现年42岁的戈拉尼出生于沙特阿拉伯,本名艾哈迈德·侯赛因·沙雷,父母都是叙利亚流亡者。20世纪80年代末,他和家人搬回叙利亚,2003年,他前往邻国伊拉克加入基地组织,反抗美国的占领。

He spent several years in an American prison in Iraq, according to the Arab media reports and U.S. officials. He later emerged in Syria around the start of the civil war and formed the Nusra Front, which eventually evolved into Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. At some point, he took on the nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.

据阿拉伯媒体报道和美国官员的说法,他在伊拉克的美国监狱中服刑数年。后来,他在叙利亚内战开始时出现在叙利亚,组建了“努斯拉阵线”,该组织最终演变为“沙姆解放组织”。在某个时期,他开始使用阿布·穆罕默德·阿尔-戈拉尼这一化名。

Since breaking ties with Al Qaeda, Mr. al-Jolani and his group have tried to gain international legitimacy by eschewing global jihadist ambitions and focusing on organized governance in Syria.

自从与基地组织切断关系以来,戈拉尼和他的组织一直回避全球圣战野心、专注于叙利亚的有组织治理,试图以此获得国际合法性。

07syria mega explainer jqwt master1050周日,在领导此次进攻的叛军头目戈拉尼(中间左二)在清真寺发表讲话之前,人们与他拍照。

Questions have emerged about what kind of government Mr. al-Jolani would support and whether Syrians would accept it. In Idlib, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has espoused a government guided by a conservative and at times hard-line Sunni Islamist ideology.

戈拉尼会支持什么样的政府,以及叙利亚人是否会接受这个政府已成为人们关注的问题。在伊德利卜,“沙姆解放组织”支持一个保守的、有时强硬的逊尼派伊斯兰主义意识形态指导的政府。

Since the rebel offensive began, Mr. al-Jolani has sought to reassure minority communities from other sects and religions. Some analysts say he now faces the test of his life: whether he can unite Syrians.

自从叛军发起攻势以来,戈拉尼一直试图安抚其他教派和宗教的少数群体。一些分析人士表示,他现在面临着人生最大考验:他能否团结叙利亚人。

Who else is fighting in Syria?

还有谁在叙利亚作战?

Kurdish forces

库尔德武装

Forces from Syria’s Kurdish ethnic minority became the United States’ main local partner in the fight against the Islamic State in Syria, under the banner of the Syrian Democratic Forces. After the extremist group was largely defeated, the Kurdish-led forces consolidated control over towns in the northeast, expanding an autonomous region they had built there. But Kurdish fighters still had to contend with their longtime enemy, Turkey, which regards them as linked to a Kurdish separatist insurgency.

来自叙利亚库尔德少数民族的部队成为美国在叙利亚打击伊斯兰国的主要当地合作伙伴,他们的称号是“叙利亚民主力量”。在极端组织基本被击败后,库尔德人领导的部队巩固了对东北部城镇的控制,扩大了他们在那里建立的自治区。但库尔德战士仍需与他们的长期敌人土耳其抗衡,土耳其认为他们与库尔德分裂主义叛乱有关。

Turkey

土耳其

Since the beginning of the civil war, the Turkish military has launched several military interventions across the border into Syria, mostly against the Syrian Kurdish-led forces. Turkey now effectively controls a zone along Syria’s northern border.

自叙利亚内战爆发以来,土耳其军队多次越境进入叙利亚,主要针对叙利亚库尔德人领导的武装力量。土耳其目前实际控制着叙利亚北部边境的一个地区。

Russia

俄罗斯

Throughout Syria’s civil war, Russia was one of Mr. Assad’s most loyal foreign backers, sending troops to support his forces and jets to bomb his enemies. It maintained a strategic military presence in Syria with air and naval bases, which it uses to support military operations in the region.

在叙利亚内战期间,俄罗斯一直是阿萨德最忠实的外国支持者之一,派军队支援阿萨德的军队,并派遣战机轰炸其敌人。俄罗斯在叙利亚保持着战略军事存在,拥有空军和海军基地,用于支持该地区的军事行动。

07 syria mega explainer fcmb master1050周一,示威者在德黑兰土耳其大使馆抗议土耳其总统埃尔多安。

Because of the war of attrition in Ukraine, analysts say, Russia was unable to support Syria’s government as forcefully as it had in the past, suffering one of its biggest geopolitical setbacks in the quarter-century rule of President Vladimir V. Putin.

分析人士称,由于乌克兰战争的消耗,俄罗斯无法像过去那样有力地支持叙利亚政府,从而遭受了普京总统执政四分之一个世纪以来最大的地缘政治挫折之一。

The future of Russia’s military presence in Syria is now in doubt.

俄罗斯在叙利亚军事存在的前景不明。

Iran and Hezbollah

伊朗和真主党

Syria has played a core role in Iran’s “axis of resistance,” a network of countries and groups that includes Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen that hopes to destroy Israel and reduce American influence in the Middle East.

叙利亚在伊朗的“抵抗轴心”中发挥着核心作用。这是一个由真主党、哈马斯和也门胡塞武装等国家和组织组成的网络,旨在摧毁以色列,削弱美国在中东的影响力。

Iran smuggled weapons to Hezbollah across Iraq and Syria — a supply route that has now been destroyed. Iran and Hezbollah repaid the favor by sending thousands of militants to fight on Mr. al-Assad’s side during the civil war.

伊朗通过伊拉克和叙利亚向真主党走私武器——这条补给线现在已被摧毁。伊朗和真主党在叙利亚内战期间派遣数以千计的武装分子为阿萨德效力,以回报叙利亚的帮助。

On Friday, Iran began to evacuate its military commanders and personnel from Syria, according to regional officials and three Iranian officials.

据该区域的官员和三名伊朗官员称,伊朗周五开始从叙利亚撤离其军事指挥官和人员

United States

美国

The United States maintains a force of about 900 troops in Syria, centered in Kurdish-controlled oil drilling areas in the northeast and a garrison in the southeast.

美国在叙利亚驻军约900人,主要驻扎在东北部库尔德人控制的石油钻探区和东南部的一个要塞。

The U.S. role in the Syrian civil war has shifted several times. The Obama administration initially supported opposition groups in their uprising against the government, providing weapons and training, with limited effect.

美国在叙利亚内战中的角色几经转变。奥巴马政府最初支持反对派组织发起的反政府起义,为其提供武器和训练,但收效甚微。

After the rise of the Islamic State in 2014, U.S. forces fought the terrorist group with airstrikes and assistance to Kurdish forces, and then stayed in northeastern Syria to prevent a resurgence. President Donald J. Trump withdrew many of those forces in 2019.

2014年伊斯兰国崛起后,美军通过空袭和援助库尔德武装与该恐怖组织作战,随后继续驻扎在叙利亚东北部,以防止其卷土重来。特朗普总统于2019年撤走了大部分驻军。

Israel

以色列

The Israeli military said on Sunday its troops had entered an internationally monitored buffer zone in the Golan Heights and ordered a curfew on Syrian villages there. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, said Israel was deploying there temporarily for defensive purposes.

以色列军方周日表示,其军队已进入戈兰高地的一个国际监控缓冲区,并下令对那里的叙利亚村庄实行宵禁。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡表示,以色列暂时在那里部署军队是为了防御目的。

07 syria mega explainer gclj master10502018年,美国士兵在叙利亚北部。

Israel’s military activities in Syria have been mostly focused on airstrikes against Hezbollah and Iranian targets, especially senior military personnel, weapons production facilities and the transport corridor that Iran uses to send weapons to Hezbollah.

以色列在叙利亚的军事活动主要集中在对真主党和伊朗目标的空袭,特别是针对高级军事人员、武器生产设施,以及伊朗向真主党运送武器的运输走廊。

Neil MacFarquhar、Farnaz Fassihi、Vivian Yee、Samuel Granados、Matthew Mpoke Bigg、Raja Abdulrahim、Adam Rasgon和Thomas Fuller对本文进行了报道。

翻译:Koney Bai

点击查看本文英文版。

同类信息

查看全部

茉莉花论坛作为一个开放社区,允许您发表任何符合社区规定的文章和评论。

茉莉花新闻网

        中国茉莉花革命网始创于2011年2月20日,受阿拉伯之春的感召,大家共同组织、发起了中国茉莉花革命。后由数名义工无偿坚持至今,并发展成为广受翻墙网民欢迎的新闻聚合网站并提供论坛服务。

新闻汇总

邮件订阅

输入您的邮件地址:

linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram