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尹锡悦被弹劾,韩国接下来会发生什么?

CHOE SANG-HUN

2024年12月16日

周六,首尔国会外的抗议者。总统尹锡悦遭弹劾后,人们在国会外的街上欢庆。 Jun Michael Park for The New York Times

President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment and suspension from office has left South Korea, one of the United States’ most important allies, without a strong​ elected leader to tackle challenges like a belligerent North Korea and a deepening political polarization at home.

韩国总统尹锡悦遭弹劾并被停职,导致这个最重要的美国盟友之一失去了强有力的民选领导人来应对好战的朝鲜以及国内日益加深的政治两极化等挑战

By voting to impeach Mr. Yoon on Saturday, the National Assembly delivered a crushing vote of no confidence in a leader who had been unpopular through his term. ​Outside the legislature, people danced in the streets, celebrating Mr. Yoon’s peaceful removal from office less than two weeks after his declaration of martial law as proof of the resilience of the country’s democracy.

韩国国会于周六投票弹劾尹锡悦,这是对这位在任期间不受欢迎的领导人的一次压倒性不信任投票。立法机构外,人们在街头欢庆,庆祝尹锡悦在宣布戒严不到两周后以和平的方式被赶下台,这证明了韩国民主的韧性。

Yet, despite their euphoria, the political turmoil and uncertainty unleashed by Mr. Yoon’s botched attempt on Dec. 3 to place his country under military rule for the first time in 45 years remained unresolved.

然而,尽管人们对这一结果感到雀跃,尹锡悦12月3日试图将韩国45年来首次置于军事统治之下的失败举动所引发的政治动荡不确定性仍未得到解决。

His impeachment has created a political vacuum at the top. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, the No. 2 official in the government hierarchy, has stepped in as the interim leader, but he has no electoral mandate. A new government cannot be born until the Constitutional Court decides whether to reinstate or formally oust Mr. Yoon.

对他的弹劾导致韩国最高领层出现政治真空。政府二号人物、国务总理韩德洙已接任临时领导人,但他没有选举授权。在宪法法院决定是否恢复尹锡悦的职位或正式罢免他之前,新政府无法诞生。

The court’s deliberations could take up to six months. When the court deliberated on the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye in 2016, it needed three months to reach its conclusion and remove her. This time, the nine-member court has the additional problem of having three vacancies to fill. In the coming days, the National Assembly is expected to name three justices, asking Mr. Han to formally appoint them. Only two of the existing six justices were appointed by Mr. Yoon’s progressive predecessor, Moon Jae-in.

宪法法院的审议可能需要长达六个月的时间。2016年,宪法法院审议弹劾朴槿惠总统时,花了三个月的时间才做出结论,将朴槿惠免职。这一次,这个由九名法官构成的宪法法院还面临着三个席位空缺的问题。未来几天,国会预计将提名三名大法官,并让韩德洙正式任命他们。现有的六名大法官中,只有两名是由尹锡悦的前任、进步派总统文在寅任命的。

If Mr. Yoon is formally removed, South Korea will need another two months to elect a new president.

如果尹锡悦被正式免职,韩国将需要另外两个月的时间选出新总统。

15skorea politics folo 02 zchj master1050周六,首尔抗议活动中出现的尹锡悦形象。

Mr. Yoon said he would “never give up” the fight to return to office. But he also faces investigations by the police and prosecutors on charges including insurrection, which could lead to ​his arrest. Prosecutors said they asked Mr. Yoon to present himself on Sunday for questioning, but he did not show up. They said they would summon him again.

尹锡悦表示,他“绝不会放弃”重返总统职位的斗争。但他同时也面临警方和检察官的调查,罪名包括叛乱,这可能导致他被捕。检察官称,他们已要求尹锡悦周日到庭接受讯问,但他没有到场。检察官表示,将再次传唤他。

The impeachment bill accused Mr. Yoon of perpetrating an insurrection when he declared martial law, because he sent troops into the National Assembly to block it from voting down his martial law, as it is allowed to do under the Constitution, and to detain his political opponents. Senior officials in the government, police and military have been arrested on charges of helping him carry out an insurrection.

弹劾法案指控尹锡悦宣布戒严令时犯下叛乱罪,因为他派遣军队进入国会,阻止国会投票否决戒严令(这是宪法允许的),并拘留了他的政治对手。政府、警察和军队的多名高级官员因涉嫌帮助尹锡悦实施叛乱而被捕。

The political turmoil will make it harder for South Korea to navigate the uncertainty around the incoming Donald J. Trump administration. Mr. Trump has described the alliance with South Korea as a terrible bargain for the United States and said that he would get along well with North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un. Mr. Trump has threatened to make South Korea pay more for the 28,500 American troops based on its soil and to impose bigger tariffs on South Korean exports to the United States.

政治动荡将使韩国更难应对即将上任的特朗普政府带来的不确定性。特朗普曾表示,与韩国结盟对美国来说是一笔糟糕的交易,并表示他会与朝鲜领导人金正恩相处融洽。特朗普威胁要让韩国为驻扎在其领土上的2.85万名美国士兵支付更多费用,并对韩国出口到美国的商品征收更高的关税。

“We won’t have strong leaders who can actively negotiate with the Trump administration to sort these things out,” said Sung Deuk Hahm, a professor of political science at Kyonggi University, west of Seoul.

“我们不会有强有力的领导人来积极地与特朗普政府谈判,以解决这些问题。”位于首尔西部的京畿大学政治学教授咸成得说。

The challenge for Mr. Han, the interim leader, will be to keep the government functioning through this crisis. Though Mr. Han has been a career bureaucrat since the early 1970s, serving in posts that include trade negotiator, finance minister and ambassador to the United States, he lacks political clout because prime minister is not an elected post.

代理领导人韩德洙面临的挑战是,如何在危机期间维持政府运转。虽然韩德洙自1970年代初以来一直是职业官僚,担任过贸易谈判代表、财政部长和驻美大使等职务,但他缺乏政治影响力,因为总理不是民选职位。

“The acting president’s role is to maintain the status quo,” said Lim Ji-bong, a professor of law and expert on the Constitution at Sogang University in Seoul. “Enforcing a significant new policy is considered beyond his power.”

“代理总统的角色是维持现状,”位于首尔的西江大学法学教授、宪法专家林智奉表示。“人们认为执行一项重大的新政策超出了他的权力范围。”

Mr. Han and both the country’s finance and foreign ministers have faced questions over their roles in Mr. Yoon’s declaration of martial law, further limiting their mandate, according to some legal scholars and opposition lawmakers. Mr. Han said he and other ministers opposed Mr. Yoon’s martial law decree but could not persuade him out of it.

一些法律学者和反对派议员认为,韩德洙以及韩国财政部长和外交部长都因在尹锡悦宣布戒严令中所扮演的角色而受到质疑,这进一步限制了他们的职权。韩德洙表示,他和其他部长反对尹锡悦的戒严令,但没能说服他改变这一决定。

15skorea politics folo 03 zchj master1050周六,代理领导人韩德洙(中)在首尔的内阁会议上。

Mr. Han is viewed more as an even-keeled caretaker than as a charismatic leader, in some ways complementing Mr. Yoon, who has been criticized as impulsive and a braggart. When Mr. Yoon came under fire for inadequate preparations for the World Scout Jamboree last year that left hundreds ill from heat exhaustion, it was Mr. Han who traveled to the campsite to personally clean the public bathrooms there.

人们认为韩德洙更像是一位平稳的看管者,而不是一位魅力十足的领导者,这在某种程度上是对尹锡悦的补充,尹锡悦一直被批评容易冲动和夸夸其谈。去年,当尹锡悦因对世界童军大露营准备不充分、导致数百人中暑而受到批评时,韩德洙前往露营地,亲自打扫了那里的公共卫生间。

Such acumen served him well in his bureaucratic career. Now he will need to draw on all his skills to steer his country through a constitutional crisis and other intractable problems, including a widening income gap, mounting household debt and simmering gender and generational tensions.

这种敏锐让他在官场生涯中受益匪浅。现在,他需要发挥自己的所有技能,带领国家度过宪法危机和其他棘手问题,包括越来越大的收入差距、家庭债务的增加,以及不断升温的性别和代际矛盾

One of the first things he did as acting president on Saturday was to call the National Security Council to check on the country’s military preparedness. On Sunday, he called President Biden to emphasize the importance of the alliance. Matthew Miller, spokesman of the U.S. State Department, said that the alliance remained “ironclad.”

周六,他以代理总统身份做的第一件事就是命令国家安全委员会检查该国的军事准备情况。周日,他致电美国总统拜登,强调韩美同盟的重要性。美国国务院发言人马修·米勒表示,这一联盟仍然“坚不可摧”。

“I consider this my last and most important mission in my long career in the public sector,” Mr. Han, 75, said about his new role. “I will do the best I can.”

“我认为这是我漫长的公职生涯中最后一个、也是最重要的使命,”75岁的韩德洙在谈及自己的新角色时说道。“我会尽我所能。”

The main opposition Democratic Party had at first threatened to impeach Mr. Han for his role in Mr. Yoon’s martial law. But on Sunday, the party retracted the threat and its leader, Lee Jae-myung, proposed establishing a consultative body comprising members of the political parties and the government to help stabilize the country. He also urged the Constitutional Court to reach its conclusion as soon as possible. Mr. Lee is favored to win if a presidential election were to be held now.

主要反对党共同民主党最初曾威胁要弹劾韩德洙,原因是他参与了尹锡悦的戒严令。但周日,它收回了这一威胁,其领导人李在明提议成立一个由各政党和政府成员组成的协商机构,帮助稳定国家局势。他还敦促宪法法院尽快得出结论。如果现在举行总统选举,李在明有望获胜。

“The most urgent thing is to normalize the country,” Mr. Lee said at a news conference on Sunday.

“当务之急是让国家恢复正常。”李在明在周日的新闻发布会上表示。

15skorea politics folo 04 zchj master1050周六投票后,主要反对党民主党领袖李在明与该党成员在一起。

In a defiant speech on Thursday, Mr. Yoon said he would “fight to the end” the attempt to unseat him — a message that political analysts said was a battle cry for his supporters and was expected to deepen political polarization. Mr. Yoon has die-hard supporters among right-wing South Koreans. A long line of wreaths and messages of support for him stretched along the street leading to his office.

周四,尹锡悦在一场充满挑衅意味的讲话中称,将与罢免他的企图“斗争到底”——政治分析人士表示,这是对他的支持者发出的战斗口号,预计将加剧政治分化。尹锡悦在韩国右翼人士中拥有铁杆支持者。通往他办公室的街道上排满了花环和支持他的留言。

Mr. Yoon had won plaudits in Washington and Tokyo by aligning his country more closely with the United States and Japan to deter China and North Korea. But at home, his two-and-a-half years in office have been marked by a near-constant clash with the opposition, allegations of corruption and abuse of power involving him and his wife, and accusations that he used state prosecutors to silence unfriendly journalists and political dissidents.

尹锡悦通过加强韩国与美日的联系以遏制中国和朝鲜而赢得了华盛顿和东京的赞誉。但在国内,他执政两年半以来几乎一直在与反对派发生冲突,他和妻子被指控腐败滥用职权,还有人指责他利用国家检察官压制不友好的记者和政治异见人士的声音。

Most South Koreans would rather live with the temporary political uncertainty than keep in office the unpopular president whom they see as having hurt their country’s image as a vibrant Asian democracy with global cultural appeal.

大多数韩国人宁愿忍受暂时的政治不确定性,也不愿让这位不受欢迎的总统继续执政,他们认为尹锡悦损害了韩国作为一个充满活力的亚洲民主国家和具有全球文化吸引力的形象。

Mr. Yoon’s misjudged martial law also damaged his image abroad by creating questions about the South Korean conservative elites’ commitment to democratic norms and the integrity of the country’s military, analysts say.

分析人士称,尹锡悦错判的戒严令也损害了他在国外的形象,人们开始质疑韩国保守派精英对民主规范的承诺,以及韩国军队的诚信。

“He blew away his foreign policy achievements — which could have been his most important legacy — through his self-destructing terror,” said Prof. Hahm.

“他通过自我毁灭的恐怖行为毁掉了自己的外交政策成就,而这本来可能是他最重要的政治遗产,”咸成得教授表示。

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