2024年12月16日
In late October, while much of the world was focused on the buildup to the U.S. elections, President Xi Jinping of China was issuing a call for global resistance to the American-led world order.
10月底,当全世界都在关注逐渐升温的美国选举时,中国国家主席习近平呼吁全球抵制美国主导的世界秩序。
Speaking in Kazan, Russia, at the summit of BRICS nations, he told the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa, Iran, Egypt and several other countries that the world had entered a pivotal new era “defined by turbulence and transformation.”
在俄罗斯喀山举行的金砖国家峰会上,他对巴西、俄罗斯、印度、南非、伊朗、埃及和其他几个国家的领导人说,世界已经进入了一个“以动荡和变革为特征”的关键新时代。
“Should we allow the world to remain turbulent or push it back on to the right path of peaceful development?” Mr. Xi asked. He invoked, as a spiritual guide for the task ahead, an 1863 Russian novel that glorified revolutionary struggle and inspired Vladimir Lenin.
“是任由世界继续动荡,还是推动世界回到和平发展的正确轨道?”习近平问道。他引用了1863年的一部俄罗斯小说作为未来任务的精神指南,这部小说歌颂了革命斗争,并启发了弗拉基米尔·列宁。
Mr. Xi has frequently drawn on Russia’s historical and literary tradition to convey his intent to undermine — and ultimately displace — Western ideas and institutions. But by urging a spirit of revolutionary sacrifice within BRICS, a group that is expanding to include new member-states, Mr. Xi is signaling an intent to rally the developing world for an intensified struggle against American power.
习近平经常引用俄罗斯的历史和文学传统来表达他破坏——并最终取代——西方思想和制度的意图。但是,通过在金砖国家——一个正不断扩大以纳入新成员的集团——内部倡导革命牺牲精神,习近平正在表明他有意团结发展中世界,以加强与美国力量的斗争。
The obscure and radical novel that the Chinese leader cited as his inspiration offers a glimpse into Mr. Xi’s mind-set as he prepares to test Donald Trump’s commitment to the institutions and alliances that underpin the U.S.-led order.
随着习近平正准备考验特朗普对支撑美国主导秩序的体制和联盟的承诺,从这本中国领导人作为灵感来源引用的晦涩难懂的激进小说中,可以一窥习近平的心理状态。
The book, “What Is to Be Done? Tales of New People,” was written by Nikolai Chernyshevsky in a prison cell in 1862 and 1863, after czarist authorities jailed him for “an evil intent to overthrow the existing order” because of his alleged connections to subversive organizations. The novel is little known in the West, perhaps because its meandering, confusing account of a love triangle in a utopian sewing cooperative is a tough read. The Russian poet Afanasy Fet said that Mr. Chernyshevsky’s real crime was “premeditated affectation of the worst sort in terms of form” and that reading the book was an “almost unbearable” task. One of the authors of this essay can attest to that, having tried and failed to complete it several times while stationed as a journalist in Beijing.
这本名为《怎么办?关于新人类的故事》的小说是尼古拉·车尔尼雪夫斯基于1862年和1863年在牢房中写成的,当时他被指控与颠覆组织有联系,沙皇当局以“推翻现有秩序的邪恶意图”为由将他监禁。这部小说在西方鲜为人知,也许是因为它蜿蜒曲折、扑朔迷离地讲述了一个乌托邦式缝纫合作社中的三角恋,读起来十分艰难。俄罗斯诗人阿法纳西·费特表示,车尔尼雪夫斯基真正的罪行是“形式上最糟糕的有预谋的矫揉造作”,读这本书是一件“几乎无法忍受”的事情。这篇文章的作者之一可以证明这一点,他在北京担任记者时曾多次尝试读完这本书,但都以失败告终。
The book’s appeal for Mr. Xi lies in its protagonist, Rakhmetov. The scion of a princely family, Rakhmetov rebels against his domineering father at age 16, strengthens his body through hard physical work and moves to St. Petersburg, where he is recruited into an underground group and reborn as an “extraordinary man” — the ultimate revolutionary.
这本书对习近平的吸引力在于其中一个叫拉赫梅托夫的主要人物。他是贵族后裔,16岁时反抗专制的父亲,通过艰苦的体力劳动强健体魄,并移居圣彼得堡,在那里他被招募到一个地下组织,重生为一个“非凡的人”——终极的革命者。
Rakhmetov renounces good food, wine and women. He reads the classics of philosophy, literature and science. He eschews a mattress and even spends a night on a bed of nails to test himself, leaving his body covered in blood. He is “completely impervious to personal emotion, possessing no personal heart” and focused purely on doing whatever it takes to achieve his aims.
拉赫梅托夫舍弃了美食、美酒和美色。他阅读哲学、文学和科学经典。他不用床垫,甚至为了考验自己,在钉床上过了一夜,弄得浑身是血。他“完全漠视个人情感,没有私心”,只专注于不惜一切代价实现自己的目标。
The book’s radical utilitarian ideology roused Lenin, who borrowed the title “What Is to Be Done?” for his own landmark 1902 essay in which he broke with pacifist social democrats in favor of forming a vanguard of aggressive professional revolutionaries.
这本书激进的功用主义思想激起了列宁的共鸣,他借用《怎么办?》作为自己在1920年的一篇具有里程碑意义的文章的标题,在文中,他与和平主义的社会民主党人决裂,支持组建一支由积极进取的职业革命者组成的先锋队。
It also inspired many of Mao Zedong’s radical Red Guards and the urban youths who answered Mao’s call to live with Chinese peasants in the countryside during the Cultural Revolution. Among these so-called sent-down youths was Mr. Xi. He first read the book as a teenager while living in a cave in rural Shaanxi Province, according to his own account. He was “shocked” by Rakhmetov’s ascetic ways but saw them as ideal for toughening one’s will. Mr. Xi has said he emulated Rakhmetov’s example by removing his mattress, taking cold showers and exercising outside in the rain and snow.
它还激励了毛泽东的许多激进红卫兵,以及在文化大革命期间响应毛泽东号召到农村与中国农民一起生活的城市青年。习近平本人就是这些所谓的下放知青之一。据他自己说,他第一次读这本书是在十几岁的时候,当时他住在陕西农村的一个窑洞里。他对拉赫梅托夫的苦行方式感到“震惊”,但认为这是磨练意志的理想方式。习近平曾说过,他以拉赫梅托夫为榜样,舍弃了床垫,洗冷水澡,在雨雪天气进行户外锻炼。
Mr. Xi invoked precisely this ethos of sacrifice and fortitude at the BRICS summit, telling other leaders that Rakhmetov’s “unwavering determination and ardent struggle encapsulate exactly the kind of spiritual power we need today. The bigger the storms of our times are, the more we must stand firm at the forefront with unbending determination and pioneering courage.”
习近平在金砖国家峰会上呼吁的正是这种牺牲和坚韧的精神,他对其他领导人说,拉赫梅托夫“坚定不移的决心和艰苦奋斗的精神,正是我们今天所需要的精神力量。我们时代的风暴越大,我们就越要以坚定不移的决心和开拓进取的勇气站在最前列”。
Perhaps tellingly, China has downplayed the radical nature of Mr. Xi’s program for Western consumption, airbrushing his reference to Rakhmetov out of official English transcripts of his remarks.
也许很能说明问题的是,中国在面向西方的介绍中淡化了习近平的计划的激进性质,在习近平讲话的官方英文记录稿中删去了他对拉赫梅托夫的提及。
Mr. Xi has been steadily raising the pressure in his effort to undermine U.S. power. In 2022 he declared a “no limits” partnership with Russia and aligned with President Vladimir Putin on his war in Ukraine. He has also been advocating something he calls the “Global Security Initiative,” which serves as the rhetorical and philosophical framework for his plans. It espouses ideals such as “common security” and the protection of each country’s “legitimate security concerns.” But its real purpose seems to be to provide cover for those who would challenge U.S. strategic interests (it has been invoked by China to justify Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine) and, ultimately, protect the interests and political systems of China and its partners from U.S.-imposed constraints.
在削弱美国力量的努力中,习近平一直在不断加大压力。2022年,他宣布与俄罗斯建立“没有止境”的伙伴关系,并在乌克兰战争问题上与普京总统保持一致。他还一直在鼓吹他所谓的“全球安全倡议”,这是他的计划的修辞和哲学框架。该倡议拥护“共同安全”和保护各国“正当安全关切”等理想。但它的真正目的似乎是为那些挑战美国战略利益的人提供掩护(中国曾援引该倡议为普京入侵乌克兰辩护),并最终保护中国及其伙伴国的利益和政治制度不受美国的制约。
The Chinese leader wants more nations under this banner. In Kazan, he and Mr. Putin repeatedly stressed the importance of security as BRICS welcomed new members such as Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates — and applicants and observers such as Cuba, Venezuela and the Palestine Liberation Organization. Many of these have their own revolutionary or Leninist roots and need little encouragement to rally against America. As the president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, said en route to the summit, “BRICS can be a way out of American totalitarianism.”
中国领导人希望有更多国家加入这一阵营。在喀山,当金砖国家迎来埃及、埃塞俄比亚、伊朗和阿拉伯联合酋长国等新成员,以及古巴、委内瑞拉和巴勒斯坦解放组织等申请国和观察员国时,习近平和普京反复强调了安全的重要性。其中许多国家都有自己的革命或列宁主义根源,不需要什么鼓励就能团结起来反对美国。正如伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽希齐扬在动身前往峰会时所说:“金砖可以成为摆脱美国极权主义的出路。”
Mr. Xi recognizes the importance of geopolitical leverage and is weaving together a coalition of authoritarians. He has entrenched China’s partnership with Russia, strengthened support for Iran during its proxy wars with Israel and refrained from criticizing China’s sole official ally — North Korea — over its deployment of troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine. China has worked to repair previously frayed ties with countries such as India, Vietnam and Brazil, and is strengthening other relationships across the developing world.
习近平认识到地缘政治影响力的重要性,并正在编织一个威权者联盟。他巩固了中国与俄罗斯的伙伴关系,在伊朗与以色列的代理战争中加强了对伊朗的支持,并避免批评中国唯一的官方盟友朝鲜出兵支持俄罗斯的乌克兰战争。中国努力修复与印度、越南和巴西等国之前破裂的关系,并在加强与其他发展中国家的关系。
Mr. Xi appears to believe momentum is on his side. Mr. Trump, on the other hand, comes into office with U.S. capabilities stretched by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. He has surrounded himself with a mix of isolationists and China hawks while sowing doubt about America’s commitment to allies and partners such as Ukraine and Taiwan.
习近平似乎相信目前的势头有利于他。另一方面,特朗普上台正值美国的能力因中东和乌克兰的冲突而捉襟见肘之际。他的周围既有孤立主义者,也有对华鹰派,同时他的言论也让人们怀疑美国是否会坚守对乌克兰和台湾等盟友和伙伴的承诺。
Mr. Xi previewed his stiffened posture at an Asia-Pacific summit in Lima, Peru, last month in comments that were clearly aimed at the incoming U.S. president. He listed a series of “red lines” that “cannot be challenged,” including staying out of Beijing’s territorial disputes in the South China Sea and insisting that Washington “support” China’s goal of unification with Taiwan — wording that goes well beyond what the United States has committed to for decades.
上个月在秘鲁利马举行的亚太峰会上,习近平发表了明显针对即将上任的美国总统的言论,预示了他的强硬姿态。他列出了一系列“不容挑战”的“红线”,包括不介入北京在南海的领土争端,坚持要求华盛顿“支持”中国统一台湾的目标——这些措辞远远超出了美国几十年来的承诺。
Mr. Putin remains an essential partner to Mr. Xi. Russian state media reported this year that Mr. Putin planned to give the Chinese leader an old copy of Chernyshevsky’s book for his birthday in June, and he staged the BRICS summit in the Tatarstan region, Rakhmetov’s ancestral home. The two men met in October at the Kazan Kremlin, which sits at the end of what was once named Chernyshevsky Road.
普京仍然是习近平不可或缺的合作伙伴。俄罗斯国家媒体今年报道称,普京计划在今年6月习近平生日时送给他一本车尔尼雪夫斯基作品的旧本,他还把金砖国家峰会放在了拉赫梅托夫的祖居地鞑靼斯坦地区举行。今年10月,两人在喀山克里姆林宫会面,那里位于曾被命名为车尔尼雪夫斯基路的道路的尽头。
But there is no mistaking who is in charge here. It is Mr. Xi who is assuming the mantle of Rakhmetov — the “extraordinary man,” the agent of history — and believes his iron will and visionary leadership will deliver the world from American turbulence.
但是,实际谁说了算是无可置疑的。习近平正在继承拉赫梅托夫的衣钵——“非凡的人”、历史的推动者——并相信他的钢铁意志和高瞻远瞩的领导力将把世界从美国的动荡中解救出来。