2024年12月24日
The Biden administration on Monday initiated a trade investigation into China’s production of older types of computer chips that are integral for cars, dishwashers, telecom networks and military weaponry.
拜登政府周一启动了对中国生产的传统计算机芯片的贸易调查,这些芯片是汽车、洗碗机、电信网络和军用武器不可或缺的一部分。
The probe could ultimately result in tariffs or other measures to block Chinese chips from entering U.S. markets, though the decision of which, if any approach to take would fall to the incoming Trump administration.
这项调查可能最终导致阻止中国芯片进入美国市场的关税或其他措施,但是否采取任何措施将由即将上任的特朗普政府做出决定。
In industry after industry — from steel and ships to solar panels and electric vehicles — China has pumped money into building world-class manufacturing facilities, creating a surge of low-cost products that ultimately flood global markets. American companies, along with firms in many other countries, finding themselves unable to compete, have shut down, leaving Chinese firms largely in control of the global market.
中国正在将大量资金注入从钢铁和船舶、从太阳能电池板到电动汽车等一个又一个行业,以建设世界一流的制造能力,生产大量最终涌入全球市场的低成本产品。美国公司和许多其他国家的公司已发现它们无法与中国竞争,纷纷倒闭,让中国公司在很大程度上控制了全球市场。
United States officials have been worrying that the semiconductor industry could be next. Chinese companies have been massively ramping up their production of chips, particularly the older types of semiconductors that continue to power a wide array of machinery and appliances. China is building more new semiconductor factories than any other country, a development that American officials argue threatens the viability of chip plants in Europe and the United States.
美国官员一直担心半导体行业可能是中国要进军的下一个市场。中国公司一直在大规模提高芯片产量,尤其是那些继续为各种机械和电器提供智能的传统芯片。中国正在建设的新半导体工厂比任何其他国家的都多,美国官员将这种发展视为对欧美芯片工厂的生存构成威胁。
Katherine Tai, the United States Trade Representative, said in a call on Sunday that China’s policies were enabling its companies to rapidly expand and to “offer artificially lower-priced chips that threaten to significantly harm, and potentially eliminate, their market-oriented competition.”
美国贸易代表戴琪在周日的电话会议上表示,中国的政策正在使本国企业得以迅速扩张,让它们“提供人为压低价格的芯片,可能严重损害甚至消除以市场为导向的竞争对手”。
That resulted in supply chains that “are more vulnerable and subject to supply chain choke points that can be used to economically coerce other countries,” she said.
她说,这让供应链“更加脆弱,更易受到供应链瓶颈的影响,它们可以用来对其他国家进行经济胁迫”。
This type of investigation allows the U.S. government to take an array of actions to respond to discriminatory foreign government practices that burden U.S. commerce. It will be carried out by the Office of the United States Trade Representative under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Experts said it typically takes between six months and a year for an investigation to conclude.
此类调查允许美国政府对给美国商业造成重累的外国政府歧视性做法采取一系列行动。调查将由美国贸易代表办公室根据1974年的《贸易法》第301条进行。专家表示,通常需要六个月到一年的时间才能出调查结果。
Tensions between the United States and China have grown during the Biden administration, as the U.S. has clamped down on shipments of advanced technology to China out of national security concerns. China has fired back by restricting mineral exports that are used to make cars, semiconductors and weaponry.
中美之间的紧张关系在拜登政府执政期间加剧。美国出于国家安全考虑限制了向中国出口先进技术,中国则采取了反制措施,限制用于汽车、半导体和武器生产的矿产品出口。
The Biden administration has issued a series of export controls in recent years to try to stifle China’s ability to make the most advanced computer chips, arguing that the technology could help Beijing develop new weapons and artificial intelligence to augment its military capabilities.
拜登政府近年来颁布了一系列出口管制措施,试图扼杀中国制造最先进计算机芯片的能力。美国政府的理由是这些先进芯片能帮助中国政府研发新武器,以及增强军事能力的人工智能。
But the Biden administration has not done much to target China’s production of older types of chips, what are sometimes called “legacy chips.” The Chinese government and companies based in China have poured money into making these types of chips, which are still essential for modern economies and militaries.
但拜登政府尚未针对中国生产传统芯片的能力采取太多措施。中国政府和总部设在中国的公司为这类芯片的生产投入了大量资金,这些芯片仍对当代经济和现代化的军队至关重要。
China’s focus on legacy chips may have other benefits for the country, as well. It could help its chipmakers to advance technologically: As they attract new customers, Chinese producers will likely absorb new knowledge about manufacturing. A large output of such chips also eats away at the profits of rival foreign chip makers, who rely on older chips to bolster profits as they research cutting-edge semiconductors.
中国重视传统芯片生产也能给国家带来其他好处。比如帮助芯片制造商在技术上取得进步:随着中国生产商吸引新客户,它们可能会吸收有关制造的新知识。这类芯片的大量生产还蚕食了与中国竞争的外国芯片制造商的利润,外国制造商需要来自传统芯片的利润,以补贴研究尖端半导体的费用。
China’s production of the chips would also make the global semiconductor trade more difficult for the United States to control. In recent years, the Biden administration has struggled to cut off the flows of less sophisticated American chips to Russia, where they are used in missiles and drones. If China managed to become an epicenter of legacy chip production, that flow would likely increase.
中国生产的芯片也将让美国更难控制全球的半导体贸易。近年来,拜登政府一直在努力阻止美国的低端芯片流入俄罗斯,这些芯片被用于俄罗斯的导弹和无人机。如果中国把自己变成了传统芯片生产中心的话,流入俄罗斯的这种芯片数量可能会增加。
今年7月,俄罗斯的一枚导弹击中了基辅一家儿童医院后,救援人员在废墟中寻找幸存者。拜登政府一直在努力阻止传统芯片流入俄罗斯,这些芯片被用于导弹和无人机。
Massive chip-producing factories have rapidly sprung up around China in the past few years, with the help of hundreds of billions of dollars of state investment. Almost half the world’s capacity for new factories to make older types of chips that will be constructed in the next three to five years will be built in China, the U.S. government has said.
在过去几年里,在政府上万亿元投资的帮助下,大量芯片生产厂在中国各地迅速涌现。美国政府表示,全球生产传统芯片产能的近一半将来自中国未来三到五年修建的新工厂。
China does not dominate global chip production yet, but its market share is growing fast. The U.S. government estimates that China could be responsible for more than 40 percent of global capacity in foundational chips by 2032, with more than half of the world’s capacity in some segments.
虽然中国尚未主导全球的芯片生产,但其市场份额正在迅速增长。据美国政府估计,到2032年时,中国的基础芯片生产可能占到全球产能的40%以上,某些芯片的生产可能占到全球产能的一半以上。
A memo written by the Commerce Department, which was sent to other government agencies in November and viewed by The New York Times, said that China was on track to dominate the supply chain for legacy chips by 2030. That could present serious risks to U.S. national security, like eroding the U.S. industrial base, creating supply chain choke points and leading to potential cyber threats, the department said.
美国商务部在今年11月发给政府其他部门的备忘录中写道,中国正在走上到2030年时主导传统芯片供应链的道路。《纽约时报》看到了这份备忘录。商务部称,这可能会给美国国家安全带来严重风险,比如侵蚀美国的工业基础,制造供应链瓶颈和潜在的网络威胁。
The memo also argued that China’s chip expansion posed a threat to new chip facilities the U.S. government is currently investing in. Using funding from the 2022 CHIPS law, the Commerce Department has been signing contracts to invest tens of billions of dollars in chip making facilities in the United States, including more than $4 billion for legacy chip production.
该备忘录还表示,中国扩大芯片产能对美国政府正在投资建设的新芯片工厂构成威胁。商务部一直在用2022年通过的CHIPS法案提供的资金与企业签定合同,为在美国本土建设芯片制造设施投资了数百亿美元,其中包括为传统芯片生产投入的40亿美元。
拜登总统在亚利桑那州钱德勒市的英特尔Ocotillo园区发表讲话。美国商务部的一份备忘录称,中国扩大芯片生产对美国政府正在投资的芯片设施构成威胁。
The Commerce Department memo said that modeling by its CHIPS program office suggested that new Chinese capacity could mean that factories in the United States and allied countries end up producing fewer chips than needed for them to remain economically viable.
商务部的备忘录称,其CHIPS项目办公室用来预测未来的模型暗示,中国的新产能可能意味着,美国和盟国正在建设的工厂未来生产的芯片数量将少于维持经济可行性所需的数量。
“In the face of these trends, we’ve seen chip companies hesitate to invest in the U.S.,” Gina Raimondo, the secretary of commerce, said in the call on Sunday.
“我们已看到,芯片公司在这些趋势面前不愿在美国投资,”商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多在周日的电话会议上说。
According to a government survey, Chinese suppliers had been offering chips at prices 30 percent to 50 percent lower than those of U.S. suppliers, and in some cases lower than the cost of production, the memo said.
据美国政府的一项调查,中国供应商提供的芯片价格比美国供应商的低30%至50%,有时甚至低于生产成本,备忘录称。
Matt Turpin, a former Trump administration official and a senior adviser at Palantir Technologies, said that China’s chip production threatened the multibillion dollar investments that the U.S. government was making in new factories.
曾在特朗普政府担任官员、现在帕兰提尔技术公司担任高级顾问的马特·特平说,中国的芯片生产对美国政府正在为建设新工厂投入的数十亿美元投资构成了威胁。
If semiconductor company revenue “is undermined by the fact that they can’t sell their chips into China because they’re being replaced by Chinese chips, that makes the entire CHIPS Act come unglued,” Mr. Turpin said.
如果半导体公司的收入“因无法将芯片卖到中国而受到损害——因为它们正在被中国芯片取代,那么整个CHIPS法案就将付诸东流,”特平说。
In Taiwan, the world’s semiconductor capital, the Chinese plans have also set off alarm bells. Speaking at a media briefing in December, Cheng-Wen Wu, the minister of Taiwan’s National Science and Technology Council, said that “everybody in the free world” believed that China’s market practices were unfair.
中国的计划也已在全球半导体之都台湾敲响了警钟。台湾国家科学及技术委员会主任委员吴诚文今年12月在记者会上说,“自由世界的所有人”都认为中国的市场行为不公平。
Mr. Wu, a semiconductor expert, said that China’s low production prices would attract chip designers, who in turn would teach Chinese factories how to make higher quality chips in more efficient ways.
半导体专家吴诚文说,中国芯片的低造价对芯片设计师有吸引力,这些设计师反过来会教给中国工厂如何以更高效的方式生产更高质量的芯片。
“That’s a very important technology leak,” he said.
“这是一个非常重要的技术泄漏,”他说。
China could also “gain increasing leverage” against the United States if is able to build up significant expertise in making advanced chips, said Jeremy Chang, chief executive at Taiwan’s Research Institute for Democracy, Society and Emerging Technology. “Through supply chain disruptions, China could impose sanctions on the U.S. and its allies, eventually reversing the dynamics of the chip war,” he added.
如果中国能在制造先进芯片方面积累大量专业知识的话,它也能在对抗美国上“获得越来越大的筹码”,台湾民主、社会与新兴技术研究中心执行长张智程说。“中国能通过扰乱供应链对美国及其盟友实施制裁,最终扭转芯片战争的态势,”他补充道。
The Biden administration has been considering taking action on legacy chips for several years. In recent months, the administration had weighed whether to carry out the investigation under Section 301, which is focused on unfair trade practices, or whether to use a law related to threats to national security, Section 232, which is administered by the Commerce Department.
几年来,拜登政府一直在考虑对传统芯片生产采取行动。美国政府已在近几个月里认真考虑或根据301条款启动调查,该条款的重点是不公平贸易行为,或使用与一项国家安全威胁有关法律,由商务部进行232条款授权的调查。
The trade investigation was deemed less likely to rankle allies and, perhaps, to invite national security-related measures from China as retaliation, people familiar with the matter said.
知情人士称,对不公平贸易行为的调查被认为激怒盟友的可能性小,而且可能也不会招致中国采取与国家安全相关的反制来进行报复。
Some officials expressed dismay that the investigation had not begun sooner and that the ultimate decision about what to do with the findings would fall to President-elect Donald J. Trump.
一些官员对没有更早地开启调查,而且最终如何处理调查结果的决定权将落在候任总统特朗普手中表示失望。
Many of Mr. Trump’s advisers appear to agree with the challenges posed by Chinese legacy chip production, but some in government and the chip industry have speculated that Mr. Trump could view the tariffs as a bargaining chip to use in trade negotiations, a strategy he often pursued during his first term.
特朗普的许多顾问似乎对中国的传统芯片生产带来的挑战有一致意见,但政府和芯片行业的一些人推测,特朗普可能会用关税来解决所有的问题,他将关税视为贸易谈判的筹码,这是他在第一个任期内经常采取的策略。