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朝鲜援俄军队为何伤亡惨重?

CHOE SANG-HUN

2024年12月24日

朝鲜官方媒体提供的一张照片显示,去年,参加阅兵式的朝鲜军人。 Korean Central News Agency, via Reuters

For years, North Korea’s military has helped its leader, Kim Jong-un, keep control of his people and provide a buffer against the country’s sworn enemy, South Korea. With 1.3 million members, the North’s army is among the world’s largest conventional armed forces.

多年来,朝鲜军队帮助其领导人金正恩保持对人民的控制,并充当了与该国宿敌韩国之间的缓冲。朝鲜军队拥有130万兵力,是世界上规模最大的常规武装力量之一。

Now, with more than 11,000 North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces against Ukraine, it’s playing a more prominent role in Mr. Kim’s geopolitical gambit for much-needed cash and diplomatic leverage.

现在,超过1.1万名朝鲜军人与俄罗斯军队一起与乌克兰作战,朝鲜军队在金正恩为获得急需的现金和外交筹码而进行的地缘政治博弈中扮演着更为重要的角色。

The troops that North Korea deployed are from its “​Storm” Corps​, special forces that are among the military’s best trained ​and most heavily indoctrinated. But they were badly prepared for​ drone attacks and the unfamiliar terrain far from their isolated homeland, according to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service.

朝鲜部署到俄罗斯的部队来自“暴风”军团,这是朝鲜军队中训练最精良、思想灌输最彻底的特种部队之一。但据韩国国家情报院称,他们对无人机袭击和远离与世隔绝的祖国的陌生地形准备不足。

More than 100 of them were killed and 1,000 others wounded in their first battles, the intelligence agency told South Korean lawmakers in a briefing on Thursday. The agency said a general-ranking officer may be among those killed, according to Lee Seong-kweun, a lawmaker who spoke to reporters after the closed-door briefing.

韩国国家情报院在周四的简报会上告诉韩国议员,朝鲜军队在第一次战斗中就有100多人阵亡,超过1000人受伤。据在闭门简报会后接受记者采访的议员李成权(音)称,情报院表示,阵亡者中可能包括一名将军。

The agency said Mr. Kim appeared to be preparing to send more troops to Russia, as he sees Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II as an opportunity to advance his own military and diplomatic ambitions.

情报院称,金正恩似乎准备向俄罗斯派遣更多军队,因为他将这场“二战”以来欧洲最大规模的冲突视为推进其军事和外交雄心的机会

Here is what to know about the North Korean military and the troops Mr. Kim sent in his country’s first major intervention in an overseas conflict.

以下是有关朝鲜军力,以及金正恩首次大规模干预海外冲突所派遣军队的一些信息。

What are the North Korean troops’ weaknesses?

朝鲜军队的弱点是什么?

The North’s special forces have trained mainly for sniper missions, urban warfare and infiltrations by sea, air and across Korea’s many mountains. They have not trained enough for drone and trench warfare waged over terrain like the mostly open and flat Russia-Ukraine front line, said Doo Jin-ho, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in Seoul.

朝鲜特种部队主要接受狙击任务、城镇战,以及经由海上、空中及穿越朝鲜众多山区的渗透战训练。这些部队没有接受过足够的训练,无法在俄罗斯-乌克兰前线这样地势大多开阔平坦的区域进行无人机和战壕战,位于首尔的韩国国防分析研究所高级分析师都镇浩(音)表示。

00nkorea military wwk 02 lmzt master1050朝鲜官方媒体提供的照片显示,士兵们正在朝鲜某个未披露地点的特种作战部队基地进行训练。

For two years during the pandemic when North Korea shut down, its special forces rotated in and out of guard-post duties along the country’s border with China, missing some of their regular training, Mr. Doo said.

都镇浩称,在朝鲜因疫情而实施封锁的两年时间里,朝鲜特种部队在中朝边境的哨所轮流执勤,错过了一些常规训练。

The North Korean troops’ deployment was so rushed that it could take time for Russia to integrate them properly into its military, South Korean intelligence officials told lawmakers. They were thrust into battle after learning a smattering of military terms, like “open fire,” “artillery” and “in position” in Russian, potentially creating problems in battlefield communications, they said.

韩国情报官员告诉议员,朝鲜军队的部署非常仓促,俄罗斯可能需要一些时间才能将其适当地整合到军队中。他们说,朝鲜军队在学习了一点点俄语军事术语(如“开火”、“炮兵”和“就位”)后就被派往战场,这可能会给战场上的沟通带来问题。

“From top to bottom, the North Korean military has had no live combat experiences for decades,” said Ahn Chan-il, a former North Korean army sergeant living in South Korea. “The troops must have had a crash course on drone and infantry warfare, but the question is how well they are familiarized with it.”

“从上到下,朝鲜军队几十年来都没有实战经验,”目前居住在韩国的朝鲜前陆军中尉安灿一说。“部队肯定接受了无人机和步兵战的速成培训,但问题是他们对此到底有多熟悉。”

Who is in charge?

谁在统帅?

Once dismissed by some outside observers as young and inexperienced, Mr. Kim, the country’s leader, has proved a strong commander in chief who rules with what the South Korean government has called a “reign of terror.”

一些外部观察者曾认为朝鲜领导人金正恩年轻且缺乏经验,但事实证明,他是一位强有力的总司令,对朝鲜实行韩国政府所称的“恐怖统治”。

His father and predecessor, Kim Jong-il, led his country with a “military-first” policy. He relied on the Korean People’s Army to hold the country together in the wake of a famine in the 1990s. In return, he allowed it to hog government resources, as well as to run profitable operations, such as mining, fisheries and smuggling.

他的父亲、前任领导人金正日以“军事第一”的先军政策领导国家。在20世纪90年代的饥荒之后,金正日依靠朝鲜人民军维系国家。作为回报,他允许朝鲜人民军占用政府资源,经营采矿、渔业和走私等盈利业务。

Once Mr. Kim took over after his father’s death in 2011, he moved to subjugate the military elites, banishing or executing top generals. In 2015, Gen. Hyon Yong-chol, then the defense minister, was executed with an antiaircraft gun after he dozed off in Mr. Kim’s presence, according to South Korean intelligence officials.

金正恩在其父于2011年去世后接掌政权,他开始收服军方精英,放逐或处决高级将领。据韩国情报官员称,2015年,时任国防部长玄永哲将军在金正恩面前打瞌睡后被高射炮枪决。

In 2017, Mr. Kim sidelined Vice Marshal Hwang Pyong-so, the military’s top political officer. For two months, Mr. Hwang was made to sweep the front yard of a party building in Pyongyang, said Lee Ilkyu, a North Korean diplomat in Cuba who defected to Seoul last year.

2017年,金正恩将朝鲜军方最高政治官员黄炳誓副元帅排挤到一边。去年叛逃到首尔的朝鲜驻古巴外交官李一奎称,在长达两个月的时间里,黄炳誓被迫清扫平壤一座党组织大楼的前院。

North Korean officials live with constant fear because they don’t know when they might fall victim to Kim Jong-un’s impulsiveness, Mr. Lee added.

李一奎还说,朝鲜官员一直生活在恐惧之中,因为他们不知道自己什么时候会成为金正恩冲动行为的牺牲品。

Outside analysts closely watch who accompanies Mr. Kim on his tours of military units and weapons test sites for signs of who might be in — or out of — his favor.

外界分析人士密切关注陪同金正恩参观军事单位和武器试验场地的人员,以其发现哪些人得势哪些人失势。

In September, the analysts began noticing two new faces in the circle of top officials around Mr. Kim: Col. Gen. Kim Yong-bok and Col. Gen. Ri Chang-ho. Their importance to Mr. Kim was revealed when they later accompanied the troops to Russia.

9月,分析人士开始注意到金正恩身边的高官圈中出现了两张新面孔:金永福上将和李昌镐上将。他们对金正恩的重要性在后来随军出访俄罗斯时显露无遗。

00nkorea military wwk 03 lmzt master105010月,韩国民众在电视上看到据信来自朝鲜的士兵在排队领取来自俄罗斯的补给品。

General Kim was identified as commander of the North’s special forces during a military parade in 2017, according to Hong Min, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul. General Ri headed the military’s Reconnaissance General Bureau, which is involved in arms trade, cybercrime and other illicit activities to fatten Mr. Kim’s coffers.

据首尔韩国国家统一研究院分析师洪敏(音)称,在2017年的一次阅兵式上,金永福被确认为朝鲜特种部队司令。李昌镐领导着军方的侦察总局,该局参与军火贸易、网络犯罪和其他非法活动,以充实金正恩的国库。

On Monday, the United States and its allies blacklisted the two generals for their roles in Russia’s war. They join other key members of the North Korean government already blacklisted under United Nations Security Council resolutions.

周一,因为这两名将军在俄罗斯的战争中扮演了重要角色。美国及其盟国将他们列入黑名单。他们与朝鲜政府的其他重要成员一样,已被联合国安理会决议列入黑名单。

The soldiers risk death for higher status.

士兵冒着生命危险来换取更高的地位。

The soldiers sent to Russia were probably from poor families. The chance to go abroad and the prospect of cash can be huge incentives for them, Mr. Ahn said. Russia could pay as much as $2,000 a month per North Korean soldier, according to the South Korean intelligence agency. Although their government is expected to take most of it, the remainder can still be a huge sum for an ordinary soldier.

被派往俄罗斯的士兵可能来自贫困家庭。安灿一说,出国和得到现金的机会对他们来说是强大的动力。据韩国情报机构称,俄罗斯每月可能向每名朝鲜士兵支付多达2000美元。虽然预计朝鲜政府会拿走其中的大部分,但剩余部分对普通士兵来说仍然是一笔巨款。

North Korea was also boosting the morale of troops fighting on the front line by promising them fast-track induction into membership of the Workers’ Party, a highly coveted status symbol, said Kim Seongmin, a former North Korean army captain who runs a radio station in the South, citing informers inside the North.

在韩国经营一家广播电台的前朝鲜陆军上尉金成民(音)援引朝鲜内部线人的话说,朝鲜还向在前线作战的军人许诺可以快速加入劳动党,以此来鼓舞士气,这在朝鲜是个令人垂涎的身份象征。

“The troops had little hope for their future in the North,” said Kim Kwang-Jin, another North Korean defector, who works as a senior analyst at the government-run Institute for National Security Strategy in Seoul. “They go there at the risk of their lives, but they will also see it as an opportunity to make money and, if they are killed, to elevate their family’s social status to that of the war dead.”

“军人对他们在朝鲜的未来不抱什么希望,”另一名脱北者金光镇(音)说,他在首尔由政府管理的国家安全战略研究所担任高级分析师。“他们冒着生命危险去那里,但他们仍会将此视为赚钱的机会,如果他们死于战场,还可以将他们家人的社会地位提升为战死者家属。”

Even if they suffered heavy casualties, Mr. Kim’s totalitarian control would make it impossible for the public to complain, defectors said.

脱北者说,即使他们伤亡惨重,金正恩的极权控制也会让公众无法表达不满。

“North Korea will take the casualties for granted,” said Sim Ju-il, a former North Korean army lieutenant colonel living in Seoul. “It will consider them an inevitable cost of gaining experience in modern warfare in case it should fight against the United States military in Korea.”

“朝鲜会认为伤亡是理所当然的,”居住在首尔的前朝鲜陆军中校沈珠日(音)说。“它会认为这是积累现代战争经验的必然代价,以防有朝一日在朝鲜与美军作战。”

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