When Donald J. Trump won a return to the White House, many countries thought they knew what to expect and how to prepare for what was coming.

当唐纳德·特朗普赢得重返白宫的机会时，许多国家都以为自己知道会发生什么，以及如何为即将发生的事情做好准备。

Diplomats in world capitals said they would zero in on what his administration does, rather than what Mr. Trump says. Bigger nations developed plans to soften or counter his threat of punitive tariffs. Smaller countries hoped they could simply hide from four more years of gale-force America First.

世界各国首都的外交官们都表示，他们将关注特朗普政府的所作所为，而不是特朗普的言论。那些大国制定了计划来缓和或反击特朗普惩罚性关税的威胁。较小的国家则希望自己能躲过又一场四年的“美国优先”飓风。

But it’s getting harder for the world to keep calm and carry on.

但是，让世界保持冷静并继续前进越来越难。

At Tuesday’s news conference at Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump declined to rule out the use of force in a potential land grab for Greenland and the Panama Canal. He vowed to rename the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America.” He also said he could use “economic force” to turn Canada into the 51st state as a matter of American national security.

在周二的马阿拉歌庄园新闻发布会上，特朗普拒绝排除使用武力夺取格陵兰岛和巴拿马运河的可能性。他发誓要将墨西哥湾重新命名为“美利坚湾”。他还表示，出于美国国家安全的考虑，他可以使用“经济力量”将加拿大变成美国的第51州。

For those eager to parse substance from bluster, it looked like another performance of scattershot bravado: Trump II, the sequel, more unrestrained. Even before taking office, Mr. Trump, with his surprising wish list, has stirred up “here we go again” commentary from across the globe.

对于那些急于从虚张声势中辨别实质的人来说，这似乎又是一场散漫的夸夸其谈，一部更加肆无忌惮的续集——《特朗普2》。甚至在就职之前，特朗普就以其令人目瞪口呆的愿望清单在全球引发人们评价道：“又来了”。

Beyond the chatter, however, are serious stakes. As the world prepares for Trump’s return, the parallels between his preoccupations and the distant age of American imperialism in the late 19th century are becoming more relevant.

然而，除了闲聊之外，还有严重的利害关系。当全世界都在为特朗普的回归做准备时，他的关注点与19世纪末遥远的美帝国主义时代之间的相似之处正变得越来越重要。

Mr. Trump has already championed the era for its protectionism, claiming that the United States in the 1890s “was probably the wealthiest it ever was because it was a system of tariffs.” Now, he seems to be adding the focus from the 19th and early 20th centuries on territorial control.

特朗普已经对那个时代的保护主义大加赞赏，声称19世纪90年代的美国“可能是它在历史上最富裕的时候，因为那是一个关税体系”。现在，他似乎又在将19世纪和20世纪初对领土控制的关注加入进去。

What both epochs share is a fear of shaky geopolitics, and the threat of being locked out of territory with great economic and military importance. As Daniel Immerwahr, an American historian at Northwestern University, put it: “We are seeing a reversion to a more grabby world.”

这两个时代的共同之处在于对地缘政治动荡的恐惧，以及被排除在具有重要经济和军事意义的区域之外的威胁。正如美国西北大学历史学家丹尼尔·伊默瓦尔所说：“我们看到的是一个回归到更多强取豪夺的世界。”

特朗普曾多次表示希望接管格陵兰。

For Mr. Trump, China looms — ready, in his view, to take territory far from its own borders. He has falsely accused Beijing of controlling the American-built Panama Canal. There is also the specter, more grounded in reality, of China and its ally Russia moving to secure control over Arctic Sea routes and precious minerals.

对特朗普来说，中国的威胁正在逼近——在他看来，中国随时准备夺取远离其边界的领土。他诬蔑中国控制了美国建造的巴拿马运河。此外还有一个（相对更贴近现实的）说法——中国及其盟友俄罗斯有可能控制北冰洋航道和珍贵矿产。

At the same time, competition is increasing all around, as some nations (India, Saudi Arabia) rise and others (Venezuela, Syria) spiral and struggle, creating openings for outside influence.

与此同时，随着一些国家（印度、沙特阿拉伯）的崛起和另一些国家（委内瑞拉、叙利亚）的恶化和挣扎，四面八方的竞争在加剧，这为外部影响渗入创造了机会。

In the 1880s and ’90s, there was also a scramble for control and no single dominant nation. As countries became more powerful, they were expected to physically grow, and rivalries were redrawing maps and causing conflicts from Asia to the Caribbean.

在19世纪80、90年代也出现了争夺控制权的局面，没有一个国家能够独占鳌头。人们认为国家强大了，版图也应该扩大，相互敌对的各方势力开始重绘地图，引发了从亚洲到加勒比海的诸多冲突。

The United States mirrored Europe’s colonial designs when it annexed Guam and Puerto Rico in 1898. But in larger countries, like the Philippines, the U.S. chose indirect control by negotiating deals to advance preferential treatment for American businesses and its military interests.

1898年，美国吞并关岛和波多黎各，这与欧洲的殖民规划如出一辙。但在菲律宾等较大的国家，美国选择了间接控制，通过谈判达成交易，为美国企业和军事利益提供优惠待遇。

Some believe that Mr. Trump’s fixation on Greenland, the Panama Canal and even Canada is a one-man revival of the debate over expansionist pursuits.

一些人认为，特朗普对格陵兰岛、巴拿马运河甚至加拿大的执迷是一种他个人的诉求，试图引发对领土扩张追求的重新关注。

“This is part of a pattern of the U.S. exerting control, or trying to, over areas of the globe perceived to be American interests, without having to summon up the dreaded words ‘empire,’ ‘colonies’ or ‘imperialism,’ while still extracting material benefits,” said Ian Tyrrell, a historian of American empire at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia.

“这符合美国对它认为是其利益所在的地区施加控制或试图施加控制的模式，在不使用‘帝国’、‘殖民地’或‘帝国主义’这些可怕的字眼的同时，仍能获取物质利益，”澳大利亚悉尼新南威尔士大学的美利坚帝国历史学家伊恩·泰瑞尔说。

Mr. Trump’s threats of territorial takeover may be simply a transactional starting point or some kind of personal wish. The United States already has a deal with Denmark that allows for base operations in Greenland.

特朗普威胁要接管领土，这可能只是一个交易起点或某种个人愿望。美国过去已经与丹麦达成协议，以便在格陵兰岛建立基地。

His suggestion of Americanization there and elsewhere amounts to what many foreign diplomats and scholars see as an escalation more than a break with the past. For years, the United States has been trying to curtail Chinese ambitions with a familiar playbook.

在许多外国外交官和学者看来，他提出的将那里和其他地方“美国化”的建议，与其说是一反常态，不如说是对常态的升级。多年来，美国一直试图用一种熟悉的方式来遏制中国的野心。

特朗普错误地指称中国控制了巴拿马运河。

The Philippines is again a focus, with new deals for bases the American military can use in any potential war with Beijing. So are the sea routes that matter most for trade both in Asia and around the Arctic as climate change melts the ice and makes navigation easier.

菲律宾再次成为焦点，美军与菲律宾达成了新的基地协议，以便在与中国的潜在战争中使用。对亚洲和北极地区贸易来说最重要的海上航线也是如此，随着气候变化融化冰层，航行变得更加容易。

“What the U.S. always wanted was access to markets, lines of communication and capacity for forward projections of material power,” Professor Tyrrell said.

泰瑞尔说：“美国一直想要的是市场准入、通信线路，以及物质力量的前置部署能力。”

But for some regions in particular, past as prologue inspires dread.

但对于某些地区来说，历史的前车之鉴尤其唤起恐惧。

Panama and its neighbors tend to see Mr. Trump’s comments as a blend of both the 1890s and the 1980s, when the Cold War led Washington to meddle in many Latin American countries under the guise of fighting Communism. The Monroe Doctrine, another 19th-century creation that saw the United States treat the Western Hemisphere as its exclusive sphere of influence, has re-emerged into relevance alongside tariffs and territorial deals.

巴拿马及其邻国倾向于将特朗普的言论视为19世纪90年代和20世纪80年代的混合体，当时冷战导致华盛顿打着打击共产主义的幌子插手许多拉美国家的事务。门罗主义是另一个19世纪产物，当时美国将西半球视为其专属势力范围，如今门罗主义与关税和领土交易一起重新变得重要起来。

Carlos Puig, a popular columnist in Mexico City, said Latin America was more worried about Mr. Trump’s return than any other part of the world.

墨西哥城著名专栏作家卡洛斯·普伊格称，拉丁美洲比世界上任何其他地区都更担心特朗普的回归。

“This is Trump, with majorities in both houses, after four years complaining, a guy that only cares about himself and winning at all cost,” Mr. Puig said. “Not easy for a guy like that not to show that he is trying to fulfill his promises, no matter how crazy they are. I am not so sure everything is just bullying and almost comic provocations.”

“这就是特朗普，手握两院多数优势，抱怨了整整四年，一个只关心自己和不惜一切代价要赢的人，”普伊格说。“对于这样一个人来说，无论他的承诺有多么疯狂，他都想表明他正在努力实现这些承诺。我不确定一切都只是恃强凌弱和近乎滑稽的挑衅。”

But how much can Mr. Trump actually achieve or damage?

但特朗普究竟能取得多少成果或造成多少破坏呢？

His news conference in Florida mixed vague threats (“It might be that you’ll have to do something”) with messianic promises (“I’m talking about protecting the free world”).

他在佛罗里达州举行的新闻发布会上既有含糊其辞的威胁（“可能是因为你不得不做些什么”），又有救世主般的承诺（“我说的可是保护自由世界啊”）。

It was more than enough to awaken other nations, drawing rapt attention and resistance even before he has taken office.

这足以唤醒其他国家，甚至在他上任之前就已经吸引了强烈的关注和反击。

作为对特朗普想将墨西哥湾更名为“美利坚湾 ”的提议的回应，墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·谢因鲍姆周三表示，美国应被称为“墨西哥美洲”。

The French foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, on Wednesday warned against threatening the “sovereign borders” of the European Union — referring to Denmark’s territory of Greenland. He added that “we have entered an era that is seeing the return of the law of the strongest.”

法国外交部长让·诺埃尔·巴罗周三警告不要威胁欧盟的“主权边界”——他指的是丹麦的格陵兰岛。他还说：“我们已经进入了一个要回归到弱肉强食的时代。”

What may be harder to see from Mar-a-Lago but is much discussed in foreign capitals: Many countries are simply tired of the America Mr. Trump wants to make great again.

在马阿拉歌可能看不出来，但在外国首都却讨论得沸沸扬扬：许多国家已经厌倦了特朗普想要恢复其荣光的那个美国。

While the United States is still a dominant force, it has less leverage than in the 1980s or the 1890s, not just because of China’s rise, but because of what many nations see as America’s own drift into dysfunction and debt, coupled with the surge in development by other countries.

虽然美国仍然是一股主导力量，但其影响力已不如20世纪80年代或19世纪90年代，这不仅是因为中国的崛起，还因为在许多国家看来，美国自身正陷入功能失调和债务危机，而其他国家却在大发展。

The international system the United States helped set up after World War II prioritized trade in hopes of deterring conquest — and it worked well enough to build paths to prosperity that made American unilateralism less potent.

美国在“二战”后帮助建立的国际体系将贸易放在首位，希望以此阻止国家对外征服——这一体系运作良好，铺设了通往繁荣的道路，从而使美国单边主义的威力减弱。

As Sarang Shidore, the director of the global south program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, explained, many developing nations “are savvier, more assertive and capable even as the U.S. has become less predictable and stable.”

正如华盛顿昆西治国方略研究所全球南方项目主任萨朗·希多尔所解释的那样，许多发展中国家“更老道、自信和精干了，而美国变得不再那么可预测和稳定”。

In other words, today the world is unsettled. The postwar equilibrium is being shaken by wars in Europe and the Middle East; by the autocratic partnership of China, Russia and North Korea; by a weakened Iran that is seeking nuclear weapons; and by climate change and artificial intelligence.

换言之，当今世界动荡不安。欧洲和中东的战争，中国、俄罗斯和朝鲜的专制伙伴关系，被削弱但正在寻求核武器的伊朗，以及气候变化和人工智能，都在动摇战后的平衡。

The end of the 19th century was turbulent, too. The mistake Mr. Trump may be making now, according to historians, is thinking that the world can be calmed and simplified with additional U.S. real estate.

19世纪末也曾动荡不安。历史学家认为，特朗普现在可能犯的错误是，他认为只要增加美国的疆域和资产，世界就能变得更平静、简单。

The protectionist, imperialist age Mr. Trump seemingly romanticizes blew up when Germany and Italy tried to muscle in for a greater share of the world. The result was two world wars.

特朗普将保护主义、帝国主义时代浪漫化，而那个时代在德国和意大利试图强取豪夺时崩塌了。结果就是两次世界大战。

“We saw how that went with 20th-century weaponry,” said Mr. Immerwahr, the author of “How to Hide an Empire: A Short History of the Greater United States.” “It’s potentially far more dangerous in the 21st.”

“使用20世纪武器是什么下场，我们已经见识过了，”著有《如何隐藏一个帝国：大美国简史》一书的伊默瓦尔说。“21世纪可能要危险得多。”