China’s record trade surplus of almost $1 trillion last year has a nearly perfect mirror image on the other side of the world: an American trade deficit last year that is expected to clock in at around $1 trillion.

中国去年的贸易顺差高达7万多亿人民币（折合美元接近1万亿），创下记录。世界另一端的情况几乎截然相反：美国去年的贸易逆差预计将达到约1万亿美元。

But only a third of China’s surplus was with the United States. And only a third of the American trade deficit was with China.

但中国的贸易顺差中只有三分之一来自美国。而美国的贸易逆差中只有三分之一来自中国。

That tricky math awaits President-elect Donald J. Trump, who will take office on Monday promising tariffs to reduce America’s trade deficits. Raising taxes only on goods from China may do little to whittle down the overall U.S. trade imbalance.

这个微妙的算数正等待着将在下周一就职的候任总统特朗普，他已承诺加征关税，以减少美国的贸易逆差。仅对来自中国的商品加征关税，也许并不能帮助全面地解决美国的贸易失衡问题。

Countries around the world are also running big trade surpluses with the United States — nothing on the scale of China’s, but they are adding up. Other countries need trade surpluses with the United States to pay for their own trade deficits with China.

世界各地的国家也与美国有巨大的贸易顺差——虽然规模远不及中国，但加起来越来越大。有些国家需要用与美国的贸易顺差来弥补本国与中国的贸易逆差。

If the Trump administration raises tariffs only on China, the United States may find itself with bigger trade deficits with other countries as American companies import from them instead. But raising tariffs on imports from a wide range of countries could hit American allies.

如果特朗普政府只对中国商品提高关税，美国也许会发现本国与其他国家的贸易逆差加大，因为美国公司将转向从这些国家进口商品。但如果大范围提高进口关税，就可能给美国的盟友造成影响。

Running a very large trade deficit in manufactured goods, as the United States has been doing for decades, has eliminated well-paid jobs and weakened the country’s base for military production. But the big trade deficit also has meant that American consumers have enjoyed low prices. Many consumers may be hesitant to give that up by paying higher prices for imported cars, smartphones and other products if Mr. Trump imposes broad tariffs.

美国贸易逆差的很大部分来自进口制成品，几十年来一直是这样，这已导致好薪水的工作岗位消失，并削弱了美国的军工生产基础。但这个巨大的贸易逆差也意味着美国消费者们购物时享受低价。如果特朗普加征广泛关税，许多消费者也许不会愿失去这种享受，为购买进口的汽车、智能手机和其他产品花更多的钱。

China faces a different problem: its people could enjoy a better lifestyle if its workers produced more for domestic markets and less for exports.

中国面临一个不同的问题：如果工厂生产产品更多地是面向国内市场，而不是为了出口的话，中国人民会过上更好的生活。

But helping China’s consumers afford more of their own country’s production would require shifting government spending away from the country’s military and security apparatus and state-owned enterprises and toward the meager social safety net. It might also require steps like cutting China’s 13 percent national sales tax, as well as other consumption taxes on imported luxuries, like big American cars. Beijing has been wary of such measures.

但是，帮助中国消费者买得起更多本国生产的产品就需要政府将一部分花在军事和安全机构，以及国有企业上的钱转移到目前薄弱的社会保障开支上来。这可能还需要采取降低销售税等其他措施（中国目前的销售税为13%），以及对进口的奢侈品（如大型美国车）征收的其他消费税。北京一直对这些措施持谨慎态度。

In the meantime, China’s extraordinary volume of exports — up more than 12 percent last year — is swamping overall world trade.

与此同时，中国惊人的货物出口量（去年增长了12%以上）正在给世界贸易造成全面冲击。

“That isn’t sustainable,” said Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Chinese exports cannot grow by 12 percent when global trade is only growing by 3 percent without cutting deeply into other countries’ export sectors.”

“这是不可持续的，”美国外交关系委员会的高级研究员布拉德·塞瑟说。“在全球贸易仅以3%的速度增长的情况下，中国的出口不可能以12%的速度增长下去，否则会严重损害其他国家的出口领域。”

Across Europe, Africa, Latin America, Asia and Oceania, countries depend on buying cars, household appliances, consumer electronics and other manufactured goods from China. To obtain the dollars they need to buy these goods from China, these other countries sell everything from Mercedes cars to cheap T-shirts to the United States.

遍布在欧洲、非洲、拉丁美洲、亚洲，以及大洋洲的国家都依赖从中国进口汽车、家用电器、消费电子产品及其他制成品。为了获得购买这些中国商品所需的美元，这些国家向美国出口从奔驰汽车到廉价T恤等各种商品。

The European Union, for example, buys $2 worth of goods from China for each $1 of goods that it sells to China. That left the European Union with a $247 billion trade deficit with China last year, while the E.U. ran an estimated $240 billion surplus with the United States.

以欧盟为例。欧盟每向中国出口1美元的商品，就从中国进口价值2美元的商品。这使得欧盟去年对中国的贸易逆差达到了2470亿美元，而欧盟对美国的贸易顺差估计约为2400亿美元。

For developing countries, the discrepancies are even more pronounced, except for a handful of exporters of oil and other natural resources that run trade surpluses with China. African nations as a group buy about $3 worth of goods from China for each $2 of goods they sell to China. They then mostly reverse that ratio in their trade with the United States.

对发展中国家来说，除了少数几个石油和其他自然资源出口国对中国保持贸易顺差外，这种贸易不平衡更为明显。非洲国家作为一个整体，每向中国出口2美元的商品，就从中国进口价值约3美元的商品。然后，这些国家在与美国的贸易中获得差不多同样比例的贸易顺差。

Most of China’s imports are oil and other natural resources. But 98.9 percent of its exports last year were manufactured goods.

中国的进口大部分是石油和其他自然资源。但去年98.9%的出口是制成品。

枣庄的一家生产高端纱线的工厂。中国去年98.9%的出口来自制成品。

Countries with few natural resources to sell end up with especially large imbalances with China. Kenya bought $35 worth of goods last year from China for each $1 of goods that it sold to China. Because Kenya’s trade is roughly in balance with the United States, it has ended up borrowing heavily to raise the money to pay for imports from China and is now heavily indebted, like many developing countries.

自然资源稀少的国家与中国的贸易不平衡尤其严重。去年，肯尼亚每向中国出口1美元的商品，就从中国进口价值35 美元的商品。由于肯尼亚与美国的贸易大致平衡，该国只能靠大量借贷来获得支付从中国进口产品的资金，肯尼亚现已和许多发展中国家一样负债累累。

The United States Department of Commerce will release final trade statistics for 2024 in early February. But trends in American trade are clear from statistics that cover all of last year except December.

美国商务部将在2月初公布2024年的最终贸易统计数据。但从去年除12月外的全年数据看，美国对外贸易的趋势很明显。

China announced last month that it was eliminating all tariffs for imports from dozens of the world’s poorest countries. But because China is strong in practically every manufacturing industry, eliminating tariffs on imports from the poorest countries may not make much difference in trade flows. Chinese customs officials spoke at a news briefing on Monday about steps like importing more fish and bananas.

中国上个月宣布，将全面取消对来自世界最贫穷的几十个国家的进口产品关税。但由于中国在几乎所有制造业领域都实力雄厚，取消对来自最贫穷国家的进口产品关税也许对贸易流动不会产生太大影响。中国海关官员在周一的新闻发布会上提到增加进口的措施时，谈的是购买更多的鱼和香蕉等食品。

If the Trump administration raises tariffs while China is cutting them, many other countries could respond angrily. China has been trying to move beyond its core group of closely aligned nations like Russia, Iran and North Korea to woo developing nations through its Belt and Road Initiative. China has also attempted to earn revenue, and good will, from European and East Asian nations through visa-free tourism programs.

如果特朗普政府在中国正在削减关税的时候提高关税的话，许多其他国家可能会做出愤怒的反应。中国一直在通过“一带一路”倡议来试图讨好其他发展中国家，而不只是与关系密切的俄罗斯、伊朗、朝鲜等国结盟。中国还试图通过免签证入境旅游计划从欧洲和东亚国家挣到收入和赢得善意。

At the root of the difficult choices ahead for China and the United States lies a big difference: savings rates. Households in China are saving more, and spending little on imports, because they have lost much of their net worth after a housing market crash wiped out more wealth than the American housing market crash in 2008 and 2009. But Americans as a whole are saving very little, while effectively borrowing money through big trade deficits with the rest of the world.

从根本上来看，中美面临的艰难选择源于一个巨大差距：储蓄率。中国家庭储蓄更多，而且几乎不花钱购买进口产品，因为房地产市场崩溃已让家庭净资产受到巨大损失，比美国房地产市场在2008年和2009年间崩溃造成的损失还要大。但美国人从整体来看很少存钱，他们其实是在通过与世界其他国家的巨额贸易逆差向外国借钱。

Chinese officials and economists say they believe there is a better answer than tariffs: more Chinese investment in building factories in the United States.

中国的官员和经济学家们说，他们认为有一个比关税更好的解决方案：中国对在美国建工厂进行更多投资。

But lawmakers in Congress and in state governments have been mostly hostile to that solution, even imposing new legal limits in the past couple years on Chinese investments in the United States.

但美国国会和州议会的立法者们对这个解决方案大都持反对态度，他们甚至在过去几年里对中国在美国的投资施加了新的法律限制。