To get its citizens to have more children and stop its population from shrinking, China has tried it all, even declaring having babies an act of patriotism. And yet, for the third year in a row, its population got smaller.

为了鼓励民众生育、阻止人口减少的趋势，中国采取了各种措施，甚至宣称生孩子是爱国之举。然而其人口总数连续三年下降。

Not even a surprise uptick in the number of babies born, a first in seven years, could reverse the course of an aging and declining population.

即使七年来新生儿数量首次意外小幅增长，也无法扭转老龄化和人口下降的趋势。

China is staring down a longer term baby bust that is rippling through the economy. Hospitals are shutting their obstetrics units, and companies that sold baby formula are idling factories. Thousands of kindergartens have closed and more than 170,000 preschool teachers lost their jobs in 2023.

中国正面临长期的生育危机，这对经济正在产生深远影响。许多医院关闭了产科，配方奶粉企业停工停产。2023年，全国数以千计的幼儿园关闭，超过17万名幼儿园教师失业。

The country’s birthrate, as one former kindergarten in the southern city of Chongqing put it, “is falling off a cliff.” Enrollments in China’s kindergartens plummeted by more than five million in 2023, according to the most recently available data.

用南方城市重庆一所前幼儿园的工作人员来说，中国的出生率“正在断崖式下跌”。根据最新数据，2023年中国幼儿园的入学人数骤减了500多万。

On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that 9.54 million babies were born last year, up slightly from 9.02 million in 2023. Taken together with the number of people who died over 2024 — 10.93 million — China’s population shrank for a third straight year.

周五，国家统计局发布的数据显示，2024年全年出生人口954万人，比2023年的902万略有增加。综合2024年的死亡人数（1093万人）来看，中国的人口总数连续三年下降。

The small bump in newborns, in part because it was the auspicious Year of the Dragon in the Chinese zodiac, didn’t change the broader trajectory, experts said. China’s childbearing population is declining and young people are reluctant to have children.

专家表示，新生儿数量小幅增长的部分原因是因为这一年是中国十二生肖中吉祥的龙年，但整体趋势并未改变。中国的育龄人口正在下降，年轻人不愿意生孩子。

“In the medium and long term, the annual number of births in my country will continue to decline,” said Ren Yuan, a professor at Fudan University’s Institute of Population Studies.

复旦大学人口研究所教授任远表示：“从中长期来看，我国的年出生人口数量将继续下降。”

适龄劳动人口减少进一步给资金不足的养老金体系带来了压力，老龄化社会使得捉襟见肘的医保体系不堪重负。

For three decades, China’s government had worked to contain its population growth by ruthlessly enforcing a one-child policy. Now its leaders have made it a priority to reverse a stubbornly falling birthrate, a task that experts said few countries have succeeded at. Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, has called on officials to promote a “marriage and childbearing culture.”

30年来，中国政府通过严格执行独生子女政策来控制人口增长。现在，中国的领导层将逆转持续下降的出生率作为优先任务，专家表示，很少有国家能成功完成这个任务。中国最高领导人习近平呼吁官员们倡导“婚育文化”。

The lack of babies is adding to China’s economic challenges. A shrinking working-age population is straining an underfunded pension system, and an aging society is leaning on a creaking health care system. China also reported on Friday that the economy grew by 5 percent in 2024, a number that was in line with expectations but that many experts said did not fully reflect a crisis of confidence among households reeling from a multiyear property crisis.

出生人数的减少加剧了中国的经济挑战。适龄劳动人口减少进一步给资金不足的养老金体系带来压力，老龄化社会使得捉襟见肘的医保体系不堪重负。周五，中国还报告称，2024年经济增长了5%，这一数字符合预期，但许多专家表示，它并没有充分反映数年来的房地产危机给家庭带来的信心危机。

To encourage people to have more babies, the authorities are offering tax benefits, cheaper housing and cash. Cities are promising to cover the cost of in vitro fertilization. In some parts of the country, they are even promising to get rid of restrictions that penalize single mothers.

为了鼓励人们多生孩子，政府正在提供税收优惠、廉价住房和现金补助。各城市承诺支付试管婴儿的费用。在一些地方，甚至承诺取消对单身母亲的惩罚性限制。

The government has called on local officials to put in place early-warning systems to monitor big changes in population at the village and town levels around the country. Some officials are even knocking on doors and calling women to inquire about their menstrual cycles.

政府呼吁地方官员建立预警系统，监测全国村镇人口的重大变化。一些官员甚至挨家挨户敲门、打电话询问女性的月经周期。

Companies are also getting involved. In 2023, the travel site Trip.com started paying employees nearly $1,400 a year for each newborn until the age of 5. Last week, the founder of electric vehicle maker XPeng said he would give employees nearly $4,100 if they had a third child.

企业也在参与进来。从2023年开始，旅游网站携程的员工每生育一个孩子将获得每年1万元的现金补贴，直至孩子满五周岁为止。上周，电动汽车制造商小鹏汽车的创始人表示，员工生三胎就奖励3万元。

“We want our employees to have more kids,” said He Xiaopeng, the founder, in a video posted on social media. “I think the company should to take care of the money, so employees can have children.”

“小鹏是鼓励员工多生孩子的，”该公司创始人何小鹏在社交媒体上发布的视频中说。“我觉得生小朋友这个钱就是公司你该付的。”

The problem is not unique to China, which in 2023 was passed by India as the world’s most populous nation. Falling birthrates are often a measure of a country’s move up the economic ladder because fertility rates tend to fall as incomes and education levels go up. But China’s sudden decline in population arrived much sooner than the government had expected. Many families are earning more money than they were a decade ago, but have lost income because of the housing crisis.

这个问题并非中国所独有。2023年，印度超越中国成为全球人口最多的国家。出生率下降通常是衡量一个国家经济成长的标识，因为生育率往往会随着收入和教育水平的提高而下降。但中国人口的突然下降远远早于政府预期。许多家庭的收入比十年前要高，但由于房市危机而失去了财富。

Officials have long feared the day when there will not be enough workers to support retirees. Now the government has less time to prepare. More than 400 million people will be 60 or older in the next decade.

长期以来，官员们一直担心有一天会没有足够的劳动力来供养退休人员。现在，政府做准备的时间变得更少。接下来的十年里，中国将有逾4亿人年龄达到或者超过60岁。

China is facing two challenges on this front. Its public pension system is severely underfunded and many young people are reluctant — or are unable — to contribute. A low retirement age has made things worse. After years of deliberation, the government decided on a 15-year plan to gradually increase the official age to 63 for men, 58 for women in office jobs and 55 for women who work in factories. The changes took effect this month.

在这方面，中国面临着两大挑战。中国的养老金体系资金严重不足，许多年轻人不愿或无力缴纳社保。退休年龄过低使情况变得更糟。经过多年讨论，中国政府决定实施一项为期15年的计划，逐步将男性的正式退休年龄提高到63岁，女性干部的退休年龄提高到58岁，女性工人提高到55岁。这些变化在本月生效。

接下来十年里，中国将有逾4亿人年龄达到或者超过60岁。

The party only loosened birth restrictions in 2015 to allow families to have two children, an easing that created a sudden boom. Hospitals had to add beds in the corridors because there weren’t enough.

直到2015年，党才放宽了生育限制，允许每个家庭生育两个孩子，政策的放宽带来了突如其来的生育热潮。由于床位不够，医院不得不在走廊里增加床位。

But the moment was short-lived. By 2017, births started declining every year until last year.

但好景不长。到2017年，出生率开始逐年下降，直到去年。

In 2021, panicked officials loosened China’s birth policy again, allowing couples to have three children. It was too late. The next year, so few babies were born that the population began to shrink for the first time since the Great Leap Forward, Mao Zedong’s failed experiment that resulted in widespread famine and death in the 1960s.

2021年，陷入恐慌的官员再次放宽生育政策，允许一对夫妇生三个孩子。但为时已晚。第二年，新生人口数量极少，人口开始出现“大跃进”以来的首次萎缩。“大跃进”是毛泽东进行的失败试验，在上世纪60年代导致了大范围的饥荒和死亡。

China has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, far below what demographers refer to as the replacement rate required for a population to grow. This threshold requires every couple, on average, to have two children.

中国是世界上生育率最低的国家之一，远低于人口学家所说的人口增长所需的更替率。这一门槛要求每对夫妇平均生育两个孩子。

Experts said the number of births would likely continue to fluctuate.

专家表示，出生人数可能会继续波动。

“For a country of 1.4 billion a half million more births is not much of a rebound at all,” Wang Feng, a professor of sociology at the University of California, Irvine. “This is in comparison to the lowest year, in 2023 when the pandemic certainly put a pause on childbearing.”

加州大学欧文分校的社会学教授王峰表示，“对于一个有14亿人口的国家来说，多出生50万人口根本算不上什么反弹。这是与2023年最低的一年相比，当时疫情无疑导致了生育暂停。”

Many young Chinese people are quick to rattle off reasons not to have children: the rising cost of education, growing burdens of taking care of their aging parents and a desire to live a lifestyle known as “Double Income, No Kids.”

许多中国年轻人随口就能说出不生孩子的理由：教育成本上升，照顾年迈父母的负担越来越重，以及渴望过一种被称为“双份收入，没有子女”的生活方式。

For women, the sentiment is especially strong. Daughters who were the only children in their families received education and employment opportunities their parents often did not. They have grown up to become empowered women who see Mr. Xi’s appeals to them to do their patriotic duty and bear children as one step too far. Many of these women have said that deep-seated inequality and insufficient legal protections have made them reluctant to get married.

对于女性来说，这种情绪尤其强烈。那些身为家中独女的女性获得了父母未曾享有的教育和就业机会。如今她们已经长大，成为被赋权的女性，她们认为习近平呼吁她们履行爱国义务生孩子的要求过于苛刻。其中许多女性表示，根深蒂固的不平等和法律保护不足使她们不愿结婚。

出生率下降通常是衡量一个国家经济成长的标识，因为生育率往往会随着收入和教育水平的提高而下降。

The steep drop in babies is having a drastic effect on health care, education and even the consumer market. Companies that once minted money selling baby formula to feed a baby boom are now making shakes with calcium and selenium for older adults with brittle bones.

出生率的急剧下降对医疗保健、教育甚至消费市场产生了巨大的影响。曾因婴儿潮而赚取丰厚利润的婴儿配方奶粉公司如今转而为骨质疏松的老年人生产含钙和硒的冲调饮品。

Nestlé, the world’s largest food company, is shutting a factory for the China market that employs more than 500 people halfway across the world in Europe. The company will focus on selling premium baby products and expanding its offering in adult nutrition in China, a spokesman said.

全球最大的食品企业雀巢将关闭欧洲一家面向中国市场、有500多名员工的工厂。公司发言人表示，公司将专注于在中国销售优质婴儿产品，并扩大成人营养品的供应。

The pressure on China’s health care system is even more pronounced. Dozens of hospitals and maternal health clinic chains have reported closing over the past two years.

中国医疗体系面临的压力更加明显。据报道，在过去两年中，已有数十家医院和产妇保健连锁诊所关门。

On social media forums, nurses specializing in obstetrics have talked about low pay and lost jobs. One doctor told state media that being in obstetrics, once considered an “iron rice bowl” position with guaranteed job security, had become a “rusty iron rice bowl.”

在社交媒体论坛上，产科护士谈到了低工资和失业问题。一名医生告诉官方媒体，产科曾经被认为是有保障的“铁饭碗”，现在却变成了“生锈的铁饭碗”。

And some smaller hospitals have stopped paying their staff, Han Zhonghou, a former official at a hospital in northern China, told a Chinese magazine.

来自中国北方某医院的前官员韩忠厚在接受中国杂志采访时表示，一些小医院连工资都发不出来了。

“Life for maternal and child hospitals,” Mr. Han said, “is getting harder and harder by the year.”

“妇幼医院的日子一年比一年难过，”他说。