2025年1月20日
President Biden and his aides came into office with deep experience in trans-Atlantic affairs. But over four years, they focused too on the Pacific, where China strains to be the dominant player. Their main effort: building up alliances to counter China.
拜登总统上任之时,他和助手们在跨大西洋事务方面有着丰富的经验。但在过去四年里,他们还把注意力放在了太平洋地区,中国正竭力在该地区占据主导地位。他们的主要工作是建立联盟来对抗中国。
President-elect Donald J. Trump has already signaled a different approach to China. He invited Xi Jinping, China’s leader, to his inauguration on Monday. The two spoke by phone on Friday, and Mr. Xi is sending China’s vice president, Han Zheng, to the ceremony, a break from China’s tradition of having its ambassador in Washington attend.
候任总统特朗普已经发出对中国采取不同做法的信号。他邀请中国领导人习近平出席他周一的就职典礼。两人在周五通了电话,习近平派出中国国家副主席韩正出席就职典礼,这打破了中国派驻美大使出席就职典礼的传统。
The Biden administration’s final activities aimed at China stand in contrast to that. Mr. Biden held a call last Sunday with the leaders of Japan and the Philippines to firm up a new three-way security arrangement he helped build. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken visited South Korea and Japan this month on his final official trip.
拜登政府针对中国的最后活动与此形成鲜明对比。拜登上周日与日本和菲律宾领导人通了电话,以巩固他帮助建立的新的三方安全安排。本月,美国国务卿布林肯访问了韩国和日本,这是他的最后一次正式出访。
In the telling of Mr. Biden and his aides, they are handing Mr. Trump a sharpened competitive edge on China, the greatest rival to the United States.
按照拜登及其助手的说法,他们让特朗普在面对美国最大的对手中国时,获得了更大的竞争优势。
Of all of Mr. Biden’s foreign policies, his approach to China could ultimately be seen by historians as existing in a continuum. His administration built its own structure on a foundation of competition laid by Mr. Trump’s team and is now turning it over.
在拜登的所有外交政策中,其对华政策最终可能会被历史学家视为存在于一个连续体中。他的政府在特朗普团队奠定的竞争基础上建立了自己的结构,现在正在将其移交。
It is unclear what Mr. Trump will do with that. He admires the autocratic Mr. Xi, and sees China mainly through the lens of economic negotiations. Mr. Trump’s billionaire advisers, including Elon Musk, want to maintain and perhaps expand business dealings with China.
目前尚不清楚特朗普将如何处理这个问题。他钦佩专制的习近平,并且主要从经济谈判的角度看待中国。在特朗普身边,包括埃隆·马斯克在内的亿万富翁顾问们希望维持甚至扩大与中国的商业往来。
But his top picks for foreign policy aides are more aligned with Mr. Biden: They assert that the United States must constrain China across many dimensions, and using the entire range of security and economic tools.
但他挑选的外交政策助手在立场上更接近拜登:他们主张美国必须在多个方面约束中国,并且动用所有的安全和经济工具。
候任总统特朗普对专制的习近平表示钦佩。
One early test will be whether Mr. Trump enforces a ban of TikTok, the Chinese social media app popular with young Americans.
一个早期的考验将是,特朗普是否会对深受美国年轻人欢迎的中国社交媒体应用TikTok实施禁令。
Mr. Biden signed bipartisan legislation last year to ban TikTok based on national security concerns unless its parent company, ByteDance, sold it to investors not tied to a “foreign adversary.” ByteDance still owns TikTok, and the White House announced on Friday that it would be up to Mr. Trump to enact the ban. Mr. Trump said Saturday that he would likely give TikTok a 90-day reprieve from the ban, and the company’s chief executive plans to attend his inauguration. Nevertheless, American companies removed the app from online stores on Saturday night, hours before the federal law took effect.
拜登去年签署了两党立法,基于国家安全考虑禁止TikTok,除非其母公司字节跳动将其出售给与“外国对手”无关的投资者。目前,字节跳动仍然拥有TikTok,白宫上周五宣布,将由特朗普决定是否实施禁令。特朗普上周六表示,他可能会给TikTok 90天的禁令缓刑期,该公司的首席执行官计划参加他的就职典礼。尽管如此,周六晚上,也就是联邦法律生效前几个小时,美国公司还是从网上商店下架了这款应用。
Mr. Trump’s signature China policy in his first term was placing tariffs on some Chinese goods. Mr. Biden and his aides kept those while expanding policy along three major prongs: strengthening alliances and creating new security partnerships in the Asia-Pacific region; limiting technology exports to China; and jump-starting industrial policy in the United States.
特朗普在第一个任期内的标志性对华政策是对部分中国商品征收关税。拜登及其助手在保持这些原则同时从三个主要方面扩大了政策:在亚太地区加强联盟并建立新的安全伙伴关系;限制向中国出口技术;启动美国的产业政策。
In short, Mr. Biden sought to turn China policy into global policy.
简而言之,拜登试图将对华政策转变为全球政策。
During Mr. Biden’s tenure, already-tense relations plummeted when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, the de facto independent island that China claims as its territory, and a Chinese spy balloon drifted over the United States. But his team scrambled to restart high-level communications, including between the two militaries.
拜登任职期间,众议院议长南希·佩洛西访问了台湾,中国称这个事实上的独立岛屿为其领土;一个中国间谍气球飘过美国上空,导致本已紧张的中美关系更是一落千丈。但拜登的团队争分夺秒地重启了高层沟通,包括两国军方之间的沟通。
The United States and China “are competing, obviously competing vigorously, and yet still the relationship has an element of stability so that we’re not presently on the brink of a downward spiral,” Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, said in an interview in a West Wing conference room.
白宫国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文在西翼会议室接受采访时说,美国和中国“正在竞争,显然是很激烈地竞争,但但这种关系仍然具有一定的稳定性,因此我们目前还没有处于螺旋式下降的边缘”。
“That is a significant evolution over four years for how the relationship is managed on both sides,” he added. The Chinese Communist Party, he said, has now accepted the Biden team’s framing of “managed competition” for the relationship.
他还说:“这是过去四年中双方在如何管理彼此关系方面发生的重大变化。”他说,中共现在已经接受了拜登团队对两国关系“有管理的竞争”框架。
The Biden administration was animated by the idea that China wants to displace the United States as the world’s dominant power, said Rush Doshi, a China director who served on the National Security Council earlier in the Biden administration. Many Republican lawmakers and policymakers share that view.
曾在拜登政府早期担任国家安全委员会中国事务主任的拉什·多西说,拜登政府的行动是受到中国想要取代美国成为世界主导大国这一想法的刺激。许多共和党议员和政策制定者都赞同这个观点。
去年11月,一架中国制造的成都歼-20隐身战斗机在珠海航展上亮相。
Coming into office, Mr. Biden and his aides saw huge gaps in critical areas, including the U.S. defense industrial base, Mr. Sullivan said.
沙利文说,拜登和他的助手在上任之初就看到了包括美国国防工业基础等关键领域的巨大差距。
The administration set up two “big tent poles” of policy, as he put it: investments aimed at rejuvenating American manufacturing, technology innovation and supply chains; and investments in alliances and partnerships, “so that we broaden China strategy to really be a regional and global strategy.”
正如他所说,政府设立了两个“大帐篷”政策支柱:旨在振兴美国制造业、技术创新和供应链的投资;以及对联盟和伙伴关系的投资,“从而将对中国战略扩展为真正的地区和全球战略”。
Mr. Sullivan pointed to alliances not only in Asia, but in Europe as well. Mr. Biden’s team helped persuade European nations to back away from some commercial agreements with China, and NATO to make stronger pronouncements on China and to signal support for Taiwan.
沙利文指出,联盟不仅存在于亚洲,也存在于欧洲。拜登的团队帮助说服欧洲国家放弃与中国的一些商业协议,说服北约就中国问题发表更强硬的声明,并发出支持台湾的信号。
China’s partnership with Russia during President Vladimir V. Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has helped push the Europeans in that direction, as have China’s cyberespionage efforts.
在普京总统全面入侵乌克兰期间,中国与俄罗斯的伙伴关系,以及中国的网络间谍活动,帮助推动了欧洲人朝这个方向发展。
But the trans-Atlantic allies have not gone as far as the United States in viewing China as a threat. Some European politicians still prioritize trade relations with China, the world’s second-largest economy. And Mr. Trump’s antagonizing of European nations could jeopardize the Biden administration’s work.
但是,这些跨大西洋盟国还没有像美国那样把中国视为威胁。一些欧洲政界人士仍然优先考虑与世界第二大经济体中国的贸易关系。特朗普对欧洲国家的敌意可能会危及拜登政府的工作。
Moreover, U.S. allies could run into the arms of China if Mr. Trump makes good on his threat to impose universal tariffs even on them.
此外,如果特朗普兑现他的威胁,甚至对美国的盟友征收普遍关税,美国的盟友可能会投入中国的怀抱。
去年12月,山东青岛的港口。
Mr. Trump also says allies are leeching off the U.S. military, and that they must pay the United States for protection or fend for themselves. In Asia, this thinking would apply to Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, as well as to Taiwan.
特朗普还表示,盟国正在依赖美国的军事力量,他们必须向美国支付保护费,否则就得依靠自己。在亚洲,这种想法适用于日本、韩国和菲律宾以及台湾。
The Biden administration has had the opposite attitude. In creating a web of new security agreements among U.S. allies in Asia, it tried to make their militaries more intertwined with each other and with that of the United States — which, according to Mr. Biden’s team, would help deter China.
拜登政府持相反的态度。在美国与亚洲盟友建立新的安全协议网络的过程中,它试图让这些国家的军队彼此以及同美军更加紧密地联系在一起——据拜登团队的说法,这将有助于遏制中国。
Mr. Biden also moved to bolster the military capacities of several allies and the U.S. military presence in Asia: sending Tomahawk missiles to Japan; working with Britain to start equipping Australia with nuclear submarine technology, and the submarines themselves; and expanding the U.S. military’s access to Philippine bases near Taiwan.
拜登还采取行动,加强几个盟国的军事能力,以及美国在亚洲的军事存在:向日本提供战斧导弹;与英国合作,开始为澳大利亚装备核潜艇技术以及核潜艇;扩大美军对菲律宾靠近台湾的军事基地的使用权限。
In private conversations in Washington, Chinese officials complained that it was a policy of containment.
在华盛顿的私下谈话中,中国官员抱怨说这是一种遏制政策。
A central question, difficult to answer and relevant for Mr. Trump’s team, is whether the Biden administration struck the right balance between deterrence and provocation. Is China accelerating its military buildup, and is it becoming more aggressive in the region, because of the American moves in its backyard?
拜登政府是否在威慑与挑衅之间取得了适当的平衡,这是一个很难回答的核心问题,对特朗普团队来说也是十分重要的问题。中国是否因为美国在其后院的举动而加快了军事集结,在该地区变得更加咄咄逼人?
Beijing took notice when Mr. Biden said on four separate occasions that the U.S. military would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
拜登曾四次表示,如果中国入侵台湾,美国军队将提供防卫,这引起了北京的警惕。
本月早些时候,台湾军事人员与“爱国者”导弹系统。
Jessica Chen Weiss, a professor at Johns Hopkins University who worked briefly in the State Department under Mr. Blinken, noted that the administration’s policies didn’t ignite conflict, and that some of its diplomacy helped.
约翰·霍普金斯大学教授白洁曦(Jessica Chen Weiss)曾在布林肯领导下的国务院短暂工作过,她指出,政府的政策并没有引发冲突,政府的一些外交活动还起到了帮助作用。
“It was able to avoid the extremes,” she said. “Whether or not that muddling through was ambitious enough to arrest the underlying tendencies remains to be seen.”
“政府做到了避免极端,”她说。“这种随机应变的做法是否足以有效遏制潜在的倾向,还有待观察。”
In summits, Mr. Xi directly criticized a signature Biden policy that Chinese officials insist is part of the containment effort: export controls imposed on advanced semiconductor chips, including the kind needed for developing artificial intelligence.
在峰会上,习近平直接批评了拜登的一项标志性政策,中国官员坚持认为这是遏制努力的一部分:对先进半导体芯片(包括开发人工智能所需的芯片)实施出口管制。
After rolling out the first tranche in 2022, Mr. Sullivan described it as a policy of keeping “foundational technologies” out of the hands of rivals by establishing a “small yard, high fence.”
在2022年宣布第一项管制后,沙利文将其描述为一项通过建立“小院高墙”来防止竞争对手掌握“基础技术”的政策。
Some experts argue the policy has backfired and has actually pushed China to accelerate innovation. And the less Chinese companies rely on American technology, the less leverage the United States has over China, they say.
一些专家认为,这一政策适得其反,实际上推动了中国加速创新。他们说,中国公司对美国技术的依赖越少,美国对中国的影响力就越小。
Mr. Sullivan said that criticism “gets the chronology wrong.”
沙利文表示,这种批评“搞错了时间顺序”。
“Our semiconductor export controls were actually a reaction to China’s very overtly, very systematically stated policy that they were going to indigenize their semiconductor manufacturing capability,” he said.
“我们的半导体出口管制实际上是对中国非常公开、非常系统性地宣布其半导体制造能力本土化政策的一种反应,”他说。
Some former officials point to other policy shortcomings. Ryan Hass, a China director on President Barack Obama’s National Security Council, listed three: Mr. Biden and his team lacked a serious trade agenda for Asia, appeared timid in dealing with China, and seemed more comfortable interacting with advanced democracies on China policy than with developing nations.
一些前官员指出了其他政策缺陷。奥巴马总统的国家安全委员会中国事务主任瑞安·哈斯列举了三个缺点:拜登和他的团队缺乏严肃的亚洲贸易议程;在与中国打交道时显得畏首畏尾;在对华政策上似乎更乐于与发达民主国家而非发展中国家打交道。
But overall, he said, the policy worked: “America is in a stronger competitive position vis-à-vis China than it was when Biden entered office.”
但他说,总体而言,这一政策发挥了作用:“与拜登上任时相比,美国在与中国的竞争中处于更有利的地位。”