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中美元首何时通话?习近平似乎并不着急

DAVID PIERSON, BERRY WANG

2025年2月13日

大屏幕上显示的中国领导人习近平上周五在哈尔滨出席亚洲冬季运动会开幕式的照片。 Jade Gao/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The leaders of the world’s two rival superpowers have plenty to talk about. But so far, it seems, they can’t agree on when they should speak, or even whether they already have.

世界上两个相互竞争的超级大国的领导人之间有很多事情要谈。但似乎迄今为止,他们对应该在什么时候交谈,甚至对他们是否已经交谈都没有达成一致。

Over the last 10 days or so, President Trump has sent conflicting messages about talking to China’s top leader, Xi Jinping. Mr. Trump said on Feb. 3 that they would have a call within “24 hours,” then reversed himself, saying he was in “no rush” to talk. More recently, when asked whether the two had spoken since he took office, Mr. Trump said that they had.

在过去的大约十天时间里,美国总统特朗普关于与中国最高领导人习近平通话的问题发出了相互矛盾的信息。特朗普曾在今年2月3日说,他们两人将在未来“24个小时内”通话,后来又改口说他“不急于”通话。当在更近的时候被问及在他上任后两人是否已通过话时,特朗普称他们已经通过话

By contrast, Mr. Xi has said nothing about talking to Mr. Trump. And on Tuesday, China’s foreign ministry suggested that no such call had taken place since Mr. Trump’s return to the White House, apparently contradicting Mr. Trump’s claim, which he made during an interview with the Fox News host Bret Baier that aired this week.

相比之下,习近平没有表示与特朗普通过话。中国外交部周二暗示,自从特朗普重返白宫以来还没有进行过这种通话,这显然与特朗普的说法相矛盾,特朗普是在接受福克斯新闻主持人布雷特·拜尔采访时做出上述表述的,采访已在本周播出。

Mr. Xi, it seems, is in no rush to engage, stalling progress on a number of thorny issues in the nations’ competition for global power. (Both sides say the leaders did speak on Jan. 17, before Mr. Trump’s inauguration.) Even as Mr. Trump has imposed tariffs aimed directly and indirectly at China, Mr. Xi has played it cool, preferring to be seen hosting foreign dignitaries at the opening of the Asian Winter Games in the icy northeastern Chinese city of Harbin.

习近平似乎并不急于与美国接触,这使得两国在全球影响力竞争中一些棘手问题的处理陷入停滞。(双方都已表示,两国领导人的确在1月17日通过话,那是在特朗普的就职典礼之前。)在特朗普征收直接间接针对中国的关税的时候,习近平一直泰然自若,他选择的露面场合是在寒冷的东北城市哈尔滨举行的亚洲冬季运动会的开幕式上为外国政要做东。

The disconnect reflects, in part, how Mr. Xi is trying to show Mr. Trump and the Chinese people that he will not be intimidated by tariffs, analysts say. Mr. Xi does not want to be confused with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada or President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, both of whom quickly negotiated with Mr. Trump after he threatened to slap 25 percent tariffs on their nations’ exports to the United States.

分析人士称,这种差异在一定程度上反映的是,习近平正在试图向特朗普和中国人民表明,他不会被关税吓倒。习近平不想让人们把他与加拿大总理贾斯汀·特鲁多或墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆相提并论,在特朗普威胁要对他们的国家出口美国的产品征收25%的关税后,那两名领导人都迅速与特朗普进行了谈判

Those leaders “caved to Trump and Trump claimed victory,” said Zhiqun Zhu, an expert in Chinese foreign policy at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania. “Xi will not let that happen. It would reflect very, very badly on him domestically. I think the strategy is to wait and see what Trump can offer before taking a call.”

那两名领导人“向特朗普屈服了,特朗普宣布胜利了”,宾夕法尼亚州巴克内尔大学的中国外交政策专家朱志群说。“习近平不会让这种情况发生。那会让他在国内留下非常糟糕的印象。我觉得中国的策略是耐心等待,在通话前看看特朗普能拿出些什么东西来。”

Mr. Zhu said Mr. Xi could also be irked by a joint statement that Mr. Trump and Japan’s prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, released after their meeting in Washington last week, which addressed Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by Beijing.

朱志群称,习近平也可能被特朗普和日本首相石破茂上周在华盛顿会晤后发表的联合声明激怒了,该声明提到了台湾,中国政府声称对自治的台湾拥有主权。

12china diplo 02 cfkm master1050美国总统特朗普上周五在白宫展示他题字送给日本首相石破茂的照片。两人在联合声明中提到了台湾,这可能激怒了中国。

Mr. Trump and Mr. Ishiba said they opposed any changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait made not only by force, but by coercion. The mention of coercion, believed to be a first, refers to China’s use of nonmilitary means to pressure Taiwan, such as cyberattacks and trade restrictions.

特朗普和石破茂表示,他们反对任何改变台湾海峡现状的做法,不只是使用武力,也包括使用胁迫。胁迫的说法据认是第一次出现,指的是中国使用非军事手段向台湾施压,例如网络攻击和贸易限制。

To strike any kind of deal with Mr. Xi, Mr. Trump will almost certainly be pressed to soften Washington’s stance on Taiwan. That could include a pledge to reduce American arms sales to the island, or a statement that the United States “opposes” formal independence for Taiwan (currently, it says it “does not support” that).

要想与习近平达成任何协议的话,特朗普将几乎肯定会面临压力,需要软化美国政府在台湾问题上的立场。这可能包括承诺减少美国对台湾的武器销售,或发表声明称美国“反对”台湾正式独立(美国目前的说法是“不支持”台湾独立)。

It is unclear whether the Trump administration would even consider such concessions, which could be widely viewed as a blow to Taiwan’s security.

不清楚特朗普政府是否甚至会考虑做出这种让步,那会被广泛视为对台湾安全的打击。

The administration may also be reluctant to yield on another major demand by Mr. Xi: loosening U.S. restrictions on exports of technology to China, such as the advanced semiconductors needed to power artificial intelligence, a key battleground between the world’s top two economic powers.

美国政府可能也不愿意在习近平的另一个主要要求上让步:放松美国对华出口技术(例如进行人工智能计算所需的高端半导体)的限制,人工智能是世界两个经济大国竞争的一个关键战场。

As for Mr. Trump, he wants China to reduce its trade surplus with the United States and do more to crack down on undocumented immigration, as well as the sale of chemicals used to make fentanyl. He has called for China to approve a sale of TikTok so that an American company can buy half of the video-sharing platform, and he has suggested that Beijing help his administration end the war in Ukraine.

至于特朗普,他想让中国减少对美国的贸易顺差,加大打击非法移民、打击把用于制造芬太尼的化学品卖到美国的力度。他要求中国批准出售TikTok,让一家美国公司能购买该视频共享平台的一半股份,他还提出让中国政府帮助他的政府结束俄乌战争。

12china diplo 03 cfkm master10502017年,特朗普夫妇与习近平夫妇一起在北京观看了一场京剧表演。

Chinese analysts said that any promise from Mr. Trump would have to be viewed skeptically. Relations between the two countries seemed stable when Mr. Trump visited Beijing in November 2017 and praised Mr. Xi, saying he did not blame China for its trade deficit with the United States. Two months later, he launched his trade war with China.

中国的分析人士称,特朗普的任何承诺都会被中国人以怀疑的态度看待。特朗普2017年11月访问北京时,两国关系似乎很稳定,他称赞了习近平,还说他不把美国的对华贸易逆差归咎于中国。两个月后,他对中国发动了贸易战。

Mr. Trump has “said some nice words,” said Xin Qiang, a U.S.-China expert at Fudan University in Shanghai. “But what’s important is how he translates them into action. His actions are the opposite.”

特朗普“说了一些好话”,上海复旦大学中美问题专家信强说。“但重要的是他如何将这些话转化为行动。他的行动与他的言论相反。”

Other analysts said the apparent lack of a call, so far, could be more easily explained.

其他分析人士称,双方到目前为止似乎尚未通话的原因也许有更简单的解释。

Chinese leaders typically do not meet or speak with their foreign counterparts until their subordinates “work out all the thorny issues” for an agreement or a joint statement, said John Gong, a professor of economics at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing.

在下属“解决了所有的棘手问题”,以便达成协议或发表联合声明之前,中国领导人通常不会与外国领导人会晤或交谈,北京对外经济贸易大学经济学教授龚炯说。

Mr. Trump, however, operates more like a business executive, looking to negotiate with world leaders on the fly, as he did during his first presidential term with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader.

但特朗普的运作方式更像一名企业高管,他希望能像自己第一个任期内与朝鲜领导人金正恩谈判那样,随时与世界各国的领导人谈判。

“Trump is a little bit delusional in the sense that he thinks in his own way, the Western way, that somehow he can do a sales pitch and convince Xi” to do what he wants, Mr. Gong said. “It’s just not going to happen.”

“从某种意义上看,特朗普有点妄想,他认为用他自己的方式、西方的方式,就能以某种推销行话说服习近平”照他的意愿行事,龚炯说。“这根本不会发生。”

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