President Trump reportedly wants to visit China within his first 100 days in office. While the White House has not yet announced any details, planning for the trip may already be underway. The Chinese leadership under President Xi Jinping is unlikely to agree to a date until it is confident of a positive outcome, and an escalation of the current tariff battle could derail the meeting altogether.

据报道，特朗普总统希望在上任头100天内访问中国。虽然白宫尚未宣布任何细节，但此行的筹备工作可能已经在进行中。习近平主席领导下的中国领导层通常只有在确定此行会有正面成果后，才会就此行的安排达成共识，而目前关税战的升级，可能会彻底破坏此次会面。

Americans should welcome talks between Mr. Trump and his biggest rival. We should not expect, nor should American negotiators seek, a grand bargain that tries to address numerous unrelated economic and security issues. Instead, Mr. Trump and his negotiators should attempt to make progress on a discrete set of objectives that advance American interests. Whatever the outcome, this is not a Nixon-in-China moment. The geopolitical landscape is radically different from that of the early 1970s. Americans should look beyond the bluster to what Mr. Trump could really accomplish.

对于特朗普与其最大的竞争对手之间的对话，美国人应该持欢迎态度。我们不应期待、美国谈判代表也不应该指望达成一项宏大协议，试图解决诸多互不相关的经济和安全问题。特朗普及其谈判代表应该做的是尝试在一系列局部议题上实现有利于美国的进展。无论结果如何，这都不是可与尼克松访华相提并论的时刻。当前的地缘政治格局与20世纪70年代初大不相同。美国人应该透过喧嚣看到特朗普能够真正实现的目标。

The timing is opportune for this kind of focused negotiation. While China is a formidable strategic competitor, it is not in a position of unquestioned strength. It faces significant economic challenges, including a volatile real estate market, mounting government debt, weak consumer spending, a rapidly aging population and a slowdown in growth. This should give Mr. Trump leverage, but not as much as some experts expect. Mr. Xi views China’s domestic problems as short-term irritants and considers the United States and the American-led world order to be in inexorable decline.

进行这种重点突出的谈判，眼下可谓恰逢其时。虽然中国是一个强大的战略竞争对手，但它并非处于无可置疑的优势地位。它面临着诸多重大经济挑战，包括房地产市场的不稳定、不断攀升的政府债务、疲软的消费支出、人口迅速老龄化以及增长放缓。这应该会给特朗普带来筹码，但不会像一些专家所期望的那样多。习近平认为国内问题是短期的麻烦，还认为美国和美国主导的世界秩序处于不可避免的衰落状态。

Still, there are things that he will seek to bring home from the negotiating table. Mr. Xi most likely wants to avoid any more tariffs on Chinese products, prevent the United States from repealing China’s permanent normal trade relations status and persuade Mr. Trump to ease restrictions on China’s access to advanced American technology. Beijing’s strategy appears to be to use carrots and sticks to buy time and fend off U.S. pressure on all these fronts.

不过，他还是会设法从谈判桌上有所斩获。习近平很可能希望避免对中国产品征收更多关税，阻止美国取消中国的永久正常贸易关系地位，并说服特朗普放宽对中国获取美国先进技术的限制。中国政府的战略似乎是用胡萝卜加大棒来争取时间，抵御美国在所有这些方面施加的压力。

The carrots could include a willingness to increase its purchases of U.S. energy and agricultural products, make substantial investments in the United States that will create jobs, take back Chinese nationals who are in America illegally, step up efforts to stop the flow of chemicals that are used to produce fentanyl, and at least offer to help secure peace in Ukraine.

胡萝卜可能包括愿意增加对美国能源和农产品的进口，在美国进行大量投资以创造就业机会，带回在美国非法居留的中国公民，加强阻止芬太尼前体流入美国的行动，以及至少提出愿意帮助乌克兰实现和平。

There are several concrete things Mr. Trump can ask for. He should insist that China stop supporting Russia’s defense industrial base, which powers the war in Ukraine and poses a long-term threat to European and trans-Atlantic security. If Mr. Xi refuses, Mr. Trump should impose biting sanctions on Chinese companies and banks that help Moscow acquire drones, satellites and other important technologies. He will have to get Europe to do so as well.

特朗普可以提出一些具体要求。他应该坚持要求中国停止支持俄罗斯的国防工业基础，那是乌克兰战争的动力来源，并对欧洲和跨大西洋安全构成长期威胁。如果习近平拒绝，特朗普应该对帮助莫斯科获取无人机、卫星和其他重要技术的中国公司和银行实施严厉制裁。他必须让欧洲也这样做。

Mr. Trump is right that our trade with China is out of balance. He should persuade Mr. Xi to support a pathway to a fairer trade relationship. Before the two leaders meet, the administration should complete its review of the trade deal reached during Mr. Trump’s first term. Mr. Trump should also make clear to Mr. Xi that the United States expects China to meet most of its unfilled commitments, including its promises to purchase U.S. energy and agricultural goods.

我们与中国的贸易失去了平衡，在这个方面，特朗普是对的。他应该说服习近平支持建立更公平的贸易关系。在两国领导人会晤之前，美国政府应完成对特朗普第一任期内达成的贸易协议的审查。特朗普还应向习近平明确表示，美国希望中国履行其大部分未兑现的承诺，包括购买美国能源和农产品的承诺。

He could also affirm his interest in Chinese investment in the United States. As a presidential candidate, Mr. Trump broke with his party’s position and said he would welcome Chinese automotive investments, for example in battery and electric vehicle plants, that would employ American workers. The United States could benefit from such investments, but Mr. Trump should insist that China also share some of its technology, which would enable U.S. companies to catch up with their Chinese competitors. This would replicate Beijing’s longstanding practice of pressuring and sometimes requiring foreign companies to transfer their technology to Chinese entities as a condition for doing business in the Chinese market, often through joint ventures.

他还可以明确自己对中国在美投资的兴趣。在大选期间，他打破了他所在党派的立场，表示欢迎中国在汽车领域的投资，例如电池和电动车工厂，这些投资将雇用美国工人。美国可以从这类投资中受益，但特朗普应坚持要求中国也分享一些技术，使美国企业能够赶上中国的竞争对手。这将复制北京长期以来的做法，即通过施压，有时甚至是直接提出要求，让外国企业将技术转让给中国实体，作为在中国市场开展业务的条件，通常是通过合资企业。

There is also room for progress on nuclear weapons, although not the nuclear arms reductions talks between the United States, Russia and China that Mr. Trump has said he wants. Mr. Xi is committed to increasing his country’s nuclear arsenal, so it is closer to parity with the United States’ — a goal China is projected to reach by 2035. Mr. Trump should use this meeting to press for greater transparency about China’s nuclear weapons and urge Beijing to regularly discuss nuclear, cyber and space defense issues to reduce the risk of a conflict escalating to nuclear war.

在核武器问题上也有取得进展的空间，尽管不是特朗普所希望的那种美国、俄罗斯和中国之间的核裁军谈判。习近平致力于增加中国的核武库，使其更接近与美国的核力量平衡——预计中国将在2035年达到该目标。特朗普应利用此次会晤敦促中国在核武器方面加大透明度，并敦促北京方面定期讨论核、网络和太空防御问题，以降低冲突升级为核战争的风险。

Any deal between the United States and China will require Mr. Trump to make some concessions. In addition to forgoing new tariffs, the United States could agree to roll back tariff increases imposed in recent years in sectors with little or no impact on national security. We should expect China to do the same. China’s permanent normal trade relations status could remain intact. The United States could acknowledge mutual vulnerability to nuclear annihilation as a fact. Mr. Trump could also offer to host Mr. Xi for a summit in Washington, with enough pomp to convey the respect that China’s political system and Mr. Xi crave. (The last state visit for Mr. Xi in the United States was in 2015; he hosted Mr. Trump in 2017.)

美中之间若要达成任何协议，特朗普的让步是少不了的。除了放弃加征新的关税，美国还可以同意取消近年来对国家安全影响很小或没有影响的领域加征的关税。我们应该期待中国也会这样做。中国的永久正常贸易关系地位可以保持不变。美国可以承认双方的相互核毁灭的可能性已成事实。特朗普还可以主动提出在华盛顿与习近平举行峰会，并以足够的隆重来表达中国的政治体制和习近平所渴望的尊重。（习近平上一次访美是在2015年；他在2017年接待了到访中国的特朗普。）

Some things should be off the table in a Trump-Xi meeting, such as restrictions on the transfer of U.S. technology to China that could enhance its military capabilities. Moreover, Mr. Trump should not agree to limit arms sales to Taiwan or endorse Beijing’s objective of reunifying Taiwan with China.

在特朗普与习近平的会晤中，有些领域是不可讨价还价的，例如限制向中国转让可能增强其军事能力的美国技术。此外，特朗普不应同意限制对台军售，或支持北京方面统一台湾的目标。

Strategic competition between the United States and China will endure for many decades to come. Meetings between American and Chinese leaders provide crucial opportunities to push for progress in important areas of foreign policy and to manage risk. This first meeting of Mr. Trump’s second presidency presents an opportunity to secure a relationship with China that is more equitable and helps make America safer, stronger and more prosperous.

美中之间的战略竞争将持续数十年。美中领导人之间的会晤为推动外交政策重要领域的进展和管理风险提供了至关重要的机会。特朗普第二任总统任期内的首次会晤提供了一个机会，以确保与中国建立更加公平的关系，以及帮助美国变得更安全、强大和繁荣。