When President Trump announced that he would impose new tariffs on imports from countries around the world, he launched a frontal attack on the global free trade system created in the aftermath of World War II.

当特朗普总统宣布将对来自世界各国的进口商品征收新关税时，他发动了对“二战”后建立的全球自由贸易体系的正面攻击。

Mr. Trump’s move, announced Thursday and set to begin as soon as April, represents a bet that the United States will gain leverage by replacing global tariffs with its own tariffs, which are taxes on imports.

特朗普周四宣布的这一举措最快将于4月开始实施，它代表着一种押注——美国将通过用自己的关税（即进口关税）取代全球关税来获取更大的谈判筹码。

The United States, the world’s largest importer, has for decades bought far more from the rest of the world than it sells. Mr. Trump wants to change that and is calculating that other countries, with more exports at stake, might be cautious about retaliating by raising their own tariffs.

作为全球最大的进口国，几十年来，美国从世界其他地方购买的商品远远超过它出口的商品。特朗普希望改变这种状况，他认为其他出口更多的国家可能会对提高关税进行报复持谨慎态度。

But instead, many trade experts warn, Mr. Trump’s action could presage a global shift toward higher tariffs. That would pose a big challenge to the World Trade Organization, which was established in 1993 to coordinate global tariffs and trade rules.

然而，许多贸易专家警告，特朗普的行动可能预示着全球向更高关税的转变。这将对世界贸易组织构成巨大挑战，该组织成立于1993年，旨在协调全球关税和贸易规则。

Decisions by other countries to follow Mr. Trump’s example and set tariffs unilaterally could impede trade, raising prices for everyone. The free trade promise of consumers buying from the lowest-cost producers could be imperiled.

其他国家如果决定效仿特朗普的做法，单方面设定关税，可能会阻碍贸易，导致价格上涨，影响到每个人。消费者从成本最低的生产商那里购买商品的自由贸易承诺可能会受到威胁。

“I would say the W.T.O. is toast, but what matters now is how other members respond,” said Deborah Elms, the head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation, which is focused on trade. “Do they stand up for the system? Or do they also ignore key principles, provisions and practices?”

“我想说世贸组织完蛋了，但现在重要的是其他成员国如何回应，”专注于贸易的韩礼士基金会贸易政策主管黛博拉·埃尔姆斯说。“他们还会支持这个体系吗？还是他们也会忽视那些关键的原则、规定和做法？”

How We Got Here: GATT and the W.T.O.

我们是如何走到这一步的：《关贸总协定》与世贸组织

The main agreement governing international trade, even today, is the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, or GATT.

直到今天，管理国际贸易的主要协定仍是《关税及贸易总协定》，简称《关贸总协定》。

Only 23 countries, including colonial powers like Britain and France, signed that agreement in 1947. The pact’s signatories agreed to charge the same tariffs to all other member countries — a crucial provision that Mr. Trump is challenging. Member nations negotiated for years to reduce these tariffs.

1947年签署该协议的只有23个国家，包括英法等殖民大国。该协定的签署国同意对所有其他成员国征收同样的关税——特朗普正在挑战这一关键条款。各成员国为降低这些关税进行了多年的谈判。

The most important of these multiyear negotiations was the Uruguay Round, which led to an agreement in 1993 to reduce tariffs further. The negotiators, from 117 nations, also created the World Trade Organization to administer GATT rules and negotiations and to provide binding arbitration of disputes.

这些持续多年的谈判中最重要的是乌拉圭回合谈判，它导致了1993年达成进一步降低关税的协议。来自117个国家的谈判代表还创建了世界贸易组织，以管理《关贸总协定》的规则和谈判，并对争端提供具有约束力的仲裁。

An American Backlash Against the W.T.O.

美国对世贸组织的强烈反弹

At the start of President Trump’s first term, he and his trade advisers voiced frustration with how the W.T.O.’s arbitration panels had worked out. They contended that the panels were reluctant to condemn export subsidies and other measures by countries like China that sought to strengthen their manufacturing sectors, in violation of the rules of free trade. And they complained that the panels often decided against the United States.

在特朗普总统的第一个任期开始时，他和他的贸易顾问对世贸组织仲裁小组的工作方式表示了不满。他们认为，专家组不愿谴责中国等国家为了加强本国制造业而采取的出口补贴和其他违反自由贸易规则的措施。他们还抱怨仲裁小组经常做出不利于美国的裁决。

Mr. Trump blocked the naming of judges to the W.T.O.’s top body for resolving disputes. That body became unable to meet as judges’ terms expired, and could no longer issue binding verdicts.

特朗普阻止了世贸组织解决争端的最高机构的法官任命。随着法官任期的结束，该机构无法举行会议，也不能再作出有约束力的判决。

Trade officials in Mr. Trump’s first term discussed whether to rewrite tariff rates, but decided that would be a step too far. The prospect of setting new tariffs for more than 4,000 import categories for U.S. trade with more than 150 countries was too daunting.

特朗普第一个任期内的贸易官员讨论了是否要改变关税税率，但认为这一步走得太远。在美国与150多个国家的贸易中，要为4000多个进口类别设定新的关税，这一前景过于艰巨。

But Mr. Trump is preparing to do just that, overturning GATT’s most basic rules by setting tariffs unilaterally. The United States would match other countries’ tariffs and then add further tariffs to offset subsidies and non-tariff trade barriers in those countries. Mr. Trump particularly complained about value-added taxes in Europe and very steep tariffs in developing countries.

但如今特朗普正准备这么做，通过单方面设定关税来推翻《关贸总协定》最基本的规则。美国的关税将与其他国家的关税相匹配，然后增加额外关税，以抵消这些国家的补贴和非关税贸易壁垒。特朗普尤其抱怨欧洲征收增值税以及发展中国家的高额关税。

Steep Tariffs in Developing Countries

发展中国家的高关税

When GATT was established in 1947, only a handful of countries had industrialized their economies, and many of them were in ruins because of World War II. As colonial empires broke up into numerous developing countries, leaders of the world’s poor countries worried that they might never have a chance to develop manufacturing industries.

关贸总协定于1947年成立时，只有少数几个国家实现了经济工业化，其中许多国家因第二次世界大战而沦为废墟。随着殖民帝国分裂成许多发展中国家，世界上那些贫穷国家的领导人担心本国可能永远没有机会发展制造业。

Developing countries insisted on keeping high tariffs to limit imports of factory goods. They also insisted on being allowed to subsidize their agricultural sectors to try to become self-sufficient in food.

发展中国家坚持保留高关税，以限制工业品的进口。他们还坚持要求允许补贴本国农业部门，努力实现粮食自给自足。

Some of these developing countries, like China and India, are now among the world’s largest economies. But they have maintained their status as developing countries under GATT rules, allowing them to keep tariffs much higher than in developed economies and heavily subsidize agriculture. Only in response to Mr. Trump’s trade war in 2018 and 2019 did China begin to reduce its tariffs voluntarily, while retaining the world’s largest agricultural subsidies.

其中，中国和印度等发展中国家如今已跻身世界最大经济体之列。但根据《关贸总协定》的规则，它们一直保持着发展中国家的地位，这使得它们可以保持比发达经济体高得多的关税，并对农业进行大量补贴。直到2018年和2019年，作为对特朗普贸易战的回应，中国才开始自愿降低关税，同时保留了世界上最大的农业补贴。

Mr. Trump signaled that developing countries with high tariffs may be hit with equally high American tariffs. But developing countries, including China and India, contend that while their industrial sectors have grown enormously, their populations are not yet affluent. They still have low average incomes and want to remain mostly self-sufficient in food.

特朗普暗示，征收高关税的发展中国家可能会被美国征收同样高的关税。但包括中国和印度在内的发展中国家声称，虽然它们的工业部门已经大幅增长，但它们的人口还不够富裕。他们的人均收入仍然很低，并希望在粮食方面基本保持自给自足。

The dilemma now for Europe and most developing countries is that they desperately need to run trade surpluses with the United States to afford their large trade deficits with China. If they retaliate against President Trump’s tariffs, they may trigger a global trade war and doom the W.T.O., which has helped them grow faster for so long.

欧洲和大多数发展中国家现在面临的困境是，它们迫切需要对美国保持贸易顺差，以承担对中国的巨额贸易逆差。如果它们对特朗普总统的关税进行报复，可能会引发一场全球贸易战，从而毁掉长期以来帮助它们实现更快增长的世贸组织。