For more than a decade, the West has faced off against the East again in what was widely called a new cold war. But with President Trump back in office, America is giving the impression that it could be switching sides.

十多年来，西方在一场被广泛称为“新冷战”的战争中再次与东方对峙。但随着特朗普总统重新上台，美国给人一种要更改立场的印象。

Even as American and Russian negotiators sat down together on Tuesday for the first time since Moscow’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago, Mr. Trump has signaled that he is willing to abandon America’s allies to make common cause with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

周二，美国和俄罗斯的代表坐下来谈判，这是近三年前莫斯科全面入侵乌克兰以来的第一次，特朗普却已经表态，他愿意放弃美国的盟友，与俄罗斯总统普京达成共同目标。

As far as Mr. Trump is concerned, Russia is not responsible for the war that has devastated its neighbor. Instead, he suggests that Ukraine is to blame for Russia’s invasion of it. To listen to Mr. Trump talk with reporters on Tuesday about the conflict was to hear a version of reality that would be unrecognizable on the ground in Ukraine and certainly would never have been heard from any other American president of either party.

在特朗普看来，俄罗斯不应对这场摧毁其邻国的战争负责。相反，他认为乌克兰应该为俄罗斯入侵乌克兰负责。周二，听特朗普对记者谈论这场冲突，就会听到一种与乌克兰当地现实完全不符的叙述，而且不会从其他任何一位总统口中听到这种说法，无论是哪个党派。

In Mr. Trump’s telling, Ukrainian leaders were at fault for the war for not agreeing to surrender territory and therefore, he suggested, they do not deserve a seat at the table for the peace talks that he has just initiated with Mr. Putin. “You should have never started it,” Mr. Trump said, referring to Ukrainian leaders who, in fact, did not start it. “You could have made a deal.”

按照特朗普的说法，乌克兰领导人应为这场战争负责，因为他们不同意交出领土，因此，他表示，他们不应该在他刚刚与普京启动的和平谈判中占有一席之地。“你们根本就不应该挑起战争，”特朗普在谈起乌克兰领导人人时说，尽管事实上，战争根本不是他们挑起的。“你们本可以达成协议。”

Speaking at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, he went on: “You have a leadership now that’s allowed a war to go on that should have never even happened.” By contrast, Mr. Trump uttered not one word of reproach for Mr. Putin or for Russia, which first invaded Ukraine in 2014, waged a low-intensity war against it through all four years of Mr. Trump’s first term and then invaded it in 2022 aiming to take over the whole country.

他在佛罗里达州的马阿拉歌庄园说：“你们现在的领导层允许一场本不应该发生的战争继续下去。”相比之下，特朗普对普京或俄罗斯没有说一句责备的话。俄罗斯在2014年首次入侵乌克兰，在特朗普第一个任期的四年里一直在对乌克兰发动低强度战争，然后在2022年入侵乌克兰，意图占领整个国家。

Mr. Trump is in the middle of executing one of the most jaw-dropping pivots in American foreign policy in generations, a 180-degree turn that will force friends and foes to recalibrate in fundamental ways. Ever since the end of World War II, a long parade of American presidents saw first the Soviet Union and then, after a brief and illusory interregnum, its successor Russia as a force to be wary of, at the very least. Mr. Trump gives every appearance of viewing it as a collaborator in future joint ventures.

特朗普正在实施美国外交政策数十年来最令人瞠目结舌的转变之一，这是一个180度的大转弯，将迫使朋友和敌人做出根本性的调整。自第二次世界大战结束以来的一系列美国总统首先将苏联视为需要警惕的力量，然后在短暂而虚幻的过渡期之后，又将其后继者俄罗斯视为至少需要警惕的力量。而特朗普似乎把俄罗斯视为可以共创一番事业的合作者。

He makes clear that the United States is done isolating Mr. Putin for his unprovoked aggression against a weaker neighbor and the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of people. Instead, Mr. Trump, who has always had a perplexing fondness for Mr. Putin, wants to readmit Russia to the international club and make it one of America’s top friends.

他明确表示，美国已经不再因为普京无端侵略较弱邻国、屠杀数十万人而孤立他。相反，一直对普京有着令人费解的好感的特朗普希望俄罗斯重新加入国际俱乐部，成为美国的顶级朋友之一。

2022年4月，乌克兰布查，被入侵的俄罗斯军队杀害的三名乌克兰平民的尸体。

“It’s a disgraceful reversal of 80 years of American foreign policy,” said Kori Schake, who is the director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute and was a national security aide to President George W. Bush.

“这是对美国80年外交政策的可耻逆转，”美国企业研究所外交与国防政策研究主任、乔治·W·布什总统的国家安全助理科里·舍克说。

“Throughout the Cold War, the U.S. refused to legitimate Soviet conquest of the Baltic States, and it gave heart to people fighting for their freedom,” she continued. “Now we’re legitimating aggression to create spheres of influence. Every American president of the last 80 years would oppose President Trump’s statement.”

“在整个冷战期间，美国拒绝承认苏联对波罗的海国家的征服，这鼓舞了那些为自由而战的人们，”她还说。“现在我们正在将侵略正当化，以创造势力范围。过去80年的每一位美国总统都会反对特朗普总统的声明。”

In Mr. Trump’s circle, the pivot is a necessary corrective to years of misguided policy. He and his allies see the cost of defending Europe as too high, given other needs. Coming to some kind of accommodation with Moscow, in this view, would allow the United States to bring home more troops or shift national security resources toward China, which they see as “the biggest threat,” as Secretary of State Marco Rubio put it last month.

在特朗普的圈子里，转向是对多年来错误政策的必要纠正。他和他的盟友认为，考虑到其他需求，保卫欧洲的成本太高。在这种观点看来，与莫斯科达成某种和解，将使美国能够撤回更多的军队，或者将国家安全资源转向中国，正如国务卿鲁比奥上个月所说的那样，他们认为中国是“最大威胁”。

The U.S. reversal has certainly been pronounced over the past week. Just days after Vice President JD Vance excoriated European allies, saying “the threat from within” was more worrisome than Russia, Mr. Rubio met with Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, and talked up “the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians” if they could simply dispose of the Ukraine war.

美国的反转在过去一周显露无疑。就在副总统JD·万斯痛骂欧洲盟友，并表示“来自内部的威胁”比俄罗斯更令人担忧几天后，鲁比奥会见了俄罗斯外交部长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫，谈到只要他们能够解决乌克兰战争，那么“与俄罗斯合作是一个千载难逢的机遇”。

No Ukrainian leaders were in the room for the meeting, held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, much less other Europeans, although Mr. Rubio called several foreign ministers afterward to brief them. Instead, by all appearances, this was a meeting of two big powers dividing up areas of dominance, a modern-day Congress of Vienna or Yalta Conference.

在沙特阿拉伯利雅得举行的这次会议上，没有乌克兰领导人在场，更不用说其他欧洲国家的领导人了，尽管鲁比奥随后给几位外交部长打了电话，向他们介绍了情况。从各种迹象来看，这是两个大国瓜分地盘的会议，是现代的维也纳会议或雅尔塔会议。

Mr. Trump has long seen Mr. Putin as a compatriot, a strong and “very savvy” player whose effort to bully Ukraine into making territorial concessions was nothing short of “genius.” Mr. Putin, in his eyes, is someone worthy of admiration and respect, unlike the leaders of traditional U.S. allies like Germany, Canada or France, for whom he exhibits scorn.

长期以来，特朗普一直把普京视为自己的同类，一个强大且“非常精明”的玩家，认为他胁迫乌克兰做出领土让步的举动简直可以用“天才”来形容。在他看来，普京是一个值得钦佩和尊重的人，不像德国、加拿大或法国等美国传统盟友的领导人，他对那些领导人表现出蔑视。

Indeed, Mr. Trump has spent the first month of his second term stiffing the allies, not only leaving them out of the emerging Ukraine talks but threatening tariffs against them, demanding they increase their military spending and asserting claims over some of their territory. His billionaire patron Elon Musk has publicly backed the far-right Alternative for Germany party.

事实上，特朗普在第二个任期的第一个月里一直在刁难盟国，不仅把它们排除在即将展开的乌克兰谈判之外，还威胁要对它们征收关税，要求它们增加军费开支，并对它们的部分领土提出主张。他的亿万富翁赞助人埃隆·马斯克公开支持极右翼的德国另类选择党。

“For now, the Europeans see this as Trump normalizing Russia relations while treating his allies, the Europeans, as untrusted,” said Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, an international consulting firm. “Supporting the AfD, who the German leaders consider a neo-Nazi party, makes Trump look like an adversary to Europe’s largest economy. It’s an extraordinary change.”

国际咨询公司欧亚集团总裁伊恩·布雷默说，“目前，欧洲人认为特朗普是在实现与俄罗斯关系正常化，同时将其盟友欧洲人视为不可信任。支持被德国领导人视为新纳粹政党的德国另类选择党，这让特朗普看起来像是欧洲最大经济体的对手。这是一个非同寻常的变化。”

Mr. Trump vowed during the campaign that he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, which he has failed to do, and in fact said he would bring peace to Ukraine even before his inauguration, which he also failed to do. After a nearly 90-minute phone call with Mr. Putin last week, Mr. Trump assigned Mr. Rubio and two other advisers, Michael Waltz and Steve Witkoff, to pursue negotiations.

特朗普在竞选期间曾发誓说，他可以在24小时内结束乌克兰战争，但他没有做到，事实上，他甚至在就职前就表示要给乌克兰带来和平，也没有做到。上周，在与普京进行了近90分钟的电话交谈后，特朗普指派鲁比奥和另外两名顾问迈克尔·瓦尔兹和史蒂夫·维特科夫继续进行谈判。

The concessions that Mr. Trump and his team have floated sound like a Kremlin wish list: Russia gets to keep all of the Ukrainian territory it illegally seized by force. The United States will not provide Ukraine with security guarantees, much less allow it into NATO. Sanctions will be lifted. The president has even suggested that Russia be readmitted to the Group of 7 major powers after it was expelled for its original 2014 incursion into Ukraine.

特朗普和他的团队提出的让步听起来像是克里姆林宫的愿望清单：俄罗斯可以保留以武力非法占领的所有乌克兰领土。美国不会向乌克兰提供安全保障，更不用说允许它加入北约了。制裁将被解除。总统甚至建议重新接纳俄罗斯加入七国集团，此前俄罗斯因2014年入侵乌克兰而被逐出该组织。

What would Mr. Putin have to give up for a deal? He would have to stop killing Ukrainians while he pockets his victory. Mr. Trump has not highlighted other concessions he would insist on. Nor has he said how Mr. Putin could be trusted to keep an agreement given that he violated a 1994 pact guaranteeing Ukrainian sovereignty and two cease-fire deals negotiated in Minsk, Belarus, in 2014 and 2015.

为了达成协议，普京必须放弃什么？他需要在将胜利收入囊中同时停止杀害乌克兰人。特朗普没有强调他将坚持要求什么其他让步。他也没有说，鉴于普京违反了1994年保障乌克兰主权的协议，以及2014年和2015年在白俄罗斯明斯克谈判达成的两项停火协议，人们怎么能够相信普京会遵守协议。

Mr. Trump’s evident faith in his ability to seal a deal with Mr. Putin mystifies veteran national security officials who have dealt with Russia over the years.

特朗普明显相信自己有能力与普京达成协议，这让多年来与俄罗斯打交道的资深国家安全官员感到困惑。

“We should be talking to them in the same way that we talked to Soviet leaders throughout the Cold War,” said Celeste A. Wallander, who dealt with Russia and Ukraine issues as assistant secretary of defense under President Joseph R. Biden Jr. “Which is you don’t trust them.”

曾在拜登总统的助理国防部长时期处理俄罗斯和乌克兰问题的塞莱斯特·沃兰达说，“我们应该像在整个冷战期间与苏联领导人对话的方式同他们交谈——那就是，你不信任他们。”

“When you do negotiations,” she continued, “you do them with the presumption that they will violate them. You try to find overlapping interests, but recognize that our interests are fundamentally in conflict and we’re trying to manage a dangerous adversary, not become best friends.”

“当你进行谈判时，”她继续说，“你要假定他们会违背约定。你要努力找到双方重叠的利益，但要认识到，我们的利益从根本上是冲突的，我们正在努力对付一个危险的对手，而不是和他们成为好朋友。”

Speaking with reporters on Tuesday, Mr. Trump made it sound as if he did consider Russia to be a friend — but not Ukraine. “Russia wants to do something,” he said. “They want to stop the savage barbarianism.”

周二对记者讲话时，特朗普的语气听起来好像他确实把俄罗斯当成了朋友，但不把乌克兰当成朋友。“俄罗斯想做点什么，”他说。“他们想要阻止野蛮的残暴行为。”

Mr. Trump expressed dismay about the killing and destruction wrought by what he called a “senseless war,” comparing scenes from the front to the Battle of Gettysburg with “body parts all over the field.” Ukraine, he said, was “being wiped out” and the war had to end. But he did not say who was wiping out Ukraine, leaving it clear he faulted its own leaders and dismissing their insistence to be part of any negotiations.

特朗普对他所说的“毫无意义的战争”造成的杀戮和破坏表示沮丧，他把前线的场景比作葛底斯堡战役，“战场上到处都是残肢。”他说，乌克兰正在“被消灭”，战争必须结束。但他没有说是谁在消灭乌克兰，只是明确指责了乌克兰自己的领导人，并驳斥了他们坚持要参与任何谈判的主张。

特朗普总统周二在佛罗里达州的马阿拉歌俱乐部。他对乌克兰承受的损失表示痛心，但没有指认俄罗斯应对此负责。

“I hear that they’re upset about not having a seat,” Mr. Trump said. “Well, they’ve had a seat for three years. And a long time before that. This could have been settled very easily. Just a half-baked negotiator could have settled this years ago without, I think, without the loss of much land, very little land. Without the loss of any lives. And without the loss of cities that are just laying on their sides.”

“我听说他们因为没有座位而不高兴，”特朗普说。“嗯，他们有座位已经三年了。在之前的很长一段时间里，这件事本来很容易解决的。我认为，只需要一个半吊子谈判者，几年前就可以解决这个问题，不会损失很多土地，很少的土地。没有任何生命损失。也不会有那么多城市被夷为平地。”

He repeated his claim that the invasion would not have happened had he been president, ignoring the fact that Russian-sponsored forces had waged war inside Ukraine all four years of his first term. “I could have made a deal for Ukraine that would have given them almost all of the land,” he said without explaining why he did not try to negotiate peace when he was in office.

他重申，如果当时他是总统，入侵就不会发生，这无视了俄罗斯支持的军队在他第一个任期的四年里一直在乌克兰境内发动战争的事实。“我本可以为乌克兰达成一项协议，把几乎所有的土地都给他们，”他说，但他没有解释为什么他在执政期间没有试图通过谈判实现和平。

As he often does, Mr. Trump flavored his comments with multiple false claims. Among them, he said that the United States has contributed three times as much aid to Ukraine since the war started as Europe has. In fact, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Europe has allocated $138 billion compared with $119 billion from the United States.

特朗普像往常一样，在他的言论中加入了许多虚假的说法。其中，他说，自战争开始以来，美国向乌克兰提供的援助是欧洲的三倍。事实上，根据基尔世界经济研究所的数据，欧洲拨款1380亿美元，而美国只拨款1190亿美元。

He also denigrated President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, saying more than once that “he’s down at 4 percent in approval rating.” In fact, Mr. Zelensky’s approval rating has fallen from its once-stratospheric heights, but only to around 50 percent — not that different from Mr. Trump’s own.

他还诋毁乌克兰总统泽连斯基，不止一次说“他的支持率只有4%”。事实上，泽连斯基的支持率从曾经的极高水平下降，但只降到50%左右——与特朗普的支持率相差不大。

Mr. Trump also agreed with a Russian talking point that Ukraine should have new elections to play a part in negotiations. “Yeah, I would say that when they want a seat at the table, you could say the people have to — wouldn’t the people of Ukraine have to say, like, you know, it’s been a long time since we had an election?” he said. “That’s not a Russia thing. That’s something coming from me and coming from many other countries also.”

特朗普还同意俄罗斯的一个观点，即乌克兰要想参与谈判，首先要举行新的选举。“是的，我会说，当他们想要在谈判桌上占有一席之地时，你可以说，乌克兰人民必须——难道乌克兰人民不是必须说，比如，我们已经很久没有举行选举了吗？”他说。“这跟俄罗斯没关系。这是我的看法，也是许多其他国家的看法。”

What other countries he did not say. Nor did he say anything about the need for elections in Russia, where any voting is controlled by the Kremlin and its allies.

至于其他国家是哪些国家，他没有说。他也没有提到在俄罗斯举行选举的必要性，在该国，任何投票都由克里姆林宫及其盟友控制。

Mr. Trump’s remarks were not scripted and came in response to questions by reporters. But they reflected how he sees the situation and foreshadowed the next few months. They also sent fresh shock waves through Europe, which is coming to grips with the fact that its chief ally in the new cold war no longer sees itself that way.

特朗普的讲话没有讲稿，而是在回答记者提问时发表的。但它们反映了他对形势的看法，并预示了未来几个月的情况。它们也给欧洲带来了新的冲击，欧洲正在认真对待这样一个事实：它在新冷战中的主要盟友不再把自己当做主要盟友。

“Some of the most shameful comments uttered by a president in my lifetime,” Ian Bond, deputy director of the Center for European Reform in London, wrote online. “Trump is siding with the aggressor, blaming the victim. In the Kremlin they must be jumping for joy.”

“这是我一生中见过的总统发表的最可耻的言论，”伦敦欧洲改革中心副主任伊恩·邦德在网上写道。“特朗普站在侵略者一边，指责受害者。在克里姆林宫，他们肯定高兴得都蹦起来了。”