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当特朗普向普京屈服,世界将变得更危险

纪思道

2025年2月20日

Maxim Shipenkov/EPA, via Shutterstock

I’m not sure most Americans appreciate the monumental damage President Trump is doing to the post-World War II order that is the wellspring of American global leadership and affluence.

我不确定大多数美国人是否意识到特朗普总统对“二战”后秩序造成的巨大破坏,而这种秩序是美国全球领导地位和财富的源泉。

He’s shattering it. He’s making the world more dangerous. He’s siding with an alleged war criminal, President Vladimir Putin of Russia, and poisoning relations with longtime U.S. allies. The trans-Atlantic alliance is unraveling.

他把它打碎了。他让世界变得更危险。他站在被指控为战争罪犯的俄罗斯总统普京一边,毒化与美国长期盟友的关系。跨大西洋联盟正在瓦解。

“We have Trump and his oligarchy of ignorant shoe shiners vandalizing the network of organizations, agreements and values — largely put in place by America since the Second World War — which have given most of us, including America, on the whole an extraordinary degree of peace and prosperity,” Chris Patten, the former British Conservative Party chairman and European foreign affairs chief, told me.

“特朗普和他那群无知的擦鞋匠寡头正在破坏组织、协议和价值观的网络——主要是自“二战”以来由美国建立的——这个网络总体上给了我们大多数国家非同寻常的和平与繁荣,包括美国在内,”前英国保守党前主席、欧洲外交事务负责人彭定康(Chris Patten)对我说。

Patten’s tough language is a reflection of the distress in Europe, for he is a lifelong Americanophile, and now, as Lord Patten of Barnes, a model of British dignity and restraint. He added, “I love America and was once happy to regard its president as leader of the free world. Not any longer. Where are the American values that I used to admire?”

彭定康的强硬措辞反映了欧洲的苦恼,因为他一生都是美国的忠实拥趸,而且现在,作为巴恩斯的彭定康男爵,他是英国尊严与克制的典范。他还说:“我爱美国,我曾经乐于把美国总统视为自由世界的领袖。现在不再是了。我曾经崇拜的美国价值观在哪里?”

I wish I knew what to tell him. But this is a humiliating month to be an American. When I was a young reporter, we referred to countries like Poland and Romania as Soviet satellites; now Trump is doing Putin’s bidding and seems determined to put the United States in the Russian orbit.

我希望我知道能对他说些什么。但对美国人来说,这是耻辱的一个月。当我还是一个年轻记者的时候,我们把波兰和罗马尼亚这样的国家称为苏联的卫星国;现在特朗普正在听命于普京,似乎决心要让美国进入俄罗斯的轨道。

Trump administration officials cozied up to Russian officials in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, this week over “a lot of jokes,” as one of the Russians put it. The two sides discussed Ukraine, and thus Europe’s future, while excluding both the Ukrainians and the Europeans. There is talk of adopting Russia’s position on Ukraine and dropping sanctions against Moscow.

特朗普政府官员本周在沙特阿拉伯利雅得讨好俄罗斯官员,用其中一名俄罗斯人的话说,“开了很多玩笑。”双方讨论了乌克兰问题,进而讨论了欧洲的未来,同时把乌克兰人和欧洲人都排除在外。双方讨论了采纳俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上的立场,以及放弃对莫斯科的制裁

This would be grotesque. I’ve covered the war in Ukraine, visited Russian torture chambers and interviewed Ukrainian children trafficked into Russia by the invaders. If only Trump and his aides had a fraction of the steel of one Ukrainian woman I interviewed in 2022, Alla Kuznietsova, who, even when subjected to electric shocks, beatings with cables and repeated rapes by Russian interrogators, refused to yield to them.

这太荒唐了。我报道过乌克兰的战争,参观过俄罗斯的刑讯室,采访过被侵略者拐卖到俄罗斯的乌克兰儿童。如果特朗普和他的助手们有我2022年采访的乌克兰女子阿拉·库兹涅佐娃的一丁点骨气就好了。尽管遭受电击、电缆抽打,被俄罗斯审讯人员多次强奸,库兹涅佐娃还是拒绝向他们屈服。

“We are grateful to Americans, but we just ask, please don’t leave us halfway,” she told me then. “Don’t leave us alone.” Yet now Trump has collapsed and seems ready to abandon heroes like her. What we’ve seen in the last 10 days from American officials is appeasement of the most craven kind.

“我们感谢美国人,但我们只是请求,请不要半途丢下我们,”她当时对我说。“别丢下我们独自面对。”然而,现在特朗普已经崩溃,似乎准备抛弃像她这样的英雄。在过去10天里,我们从美国官员那里看到的是最懦弱的绥靖政策。

As Neville Chamberlain’s ghost watched, Vice President JD Vance lit into Europeans in a speech in Munich and then met the leader of an extremist right-wing party, the Alternative for Germany, which many Germans see as descended from Nazism. Some of its members have downplayed the Holocaust, employed Nazi slogans and allegedly plotted to overthrow the government.

在内维尔·张伯伦的幽灵注视之下,副总统JD·万斯在慕尼黑发表演讲,怒斥欧洲人,然后会见了极端右翼的德国另类选择党的领导人。许多德国人认为,该党是纳粹主义的后裔。一些成员对纳粹大屠杀轻描淡写,使用纳粹口号,据称还阴谋推翻政府。

It is difficult to avoid the impression that the Trump administration is working to undermine democracy not only at home but also in Europe. As The Economist noted, what we’ve seen is “Donald Trump’s assault on Europe.”

很难避免这样一种印象——特朗普政府不仅在国内,而且在欧洲也在努力破坏民主。正如《经济学人》所指出的,我们所看到的是“唐纳德·特朗普对欧洲的攻击”。

Trump is widely expected to pull some troops out of Europe. And NATO looks more and more hollow; does anyone really think that if Russia dispatched little green men to seize Latvian villages, Trump would dispatch troops under NATO’s Article 5? It’s at least as likely that he would ask Putin about putting up a Trump Hotel there.

人们普遍预计特朗普将从欧洲撤军。北约看起来越来越徒有其表;真的有人认为,如果俄罗斯派出“小绿人”部队占领了拉脱维亚的村庄,特朗普会根据北约第五条派遣军队吗?更有可能的是他会问普京能不能在那里建一座特朗普酒店。

“European leaders are waking up to the fact that not only is the U.S. abandoning Ukraine, but that the U.S. represents a threat to the future of democracy and freedom in Europe,” wrote Phillips O’Brien, an international relations scholar at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.

苏格兰圣安德鲁斯大学国际关系学者菲利普斯·奥布莱恩写道,“欧洲领导人正在意识到,美国不仅在抛弃乌克兰,而且对欧洲民主和自由的未来构成了威胁。”

Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain put it this way: “We’re facing a generational challenge.”

英国总理基尔·斯塔默是这样说的:“我们正面临着一代人的挑战。”

In fairness, Trump is right on a basic point: Europe should contribute much more to its own defense, rather than free-riding on American taxpayers. Europe is populous enough and rich enough that it could manage Russia on its own, but instead of managing a transition, Trump is close to switching sides.

公平地说,特朗普在一个基本观点上是正确的:欧洲应该为自己的防务做出更多贡献,而不是免费搭美国纳税人的便车。欧洲有足够的人口和足够的财富,它可以自己管理俄罗斯,但特朗普不是管理这个过渡期,而是接近于换到另一边去。

Trump says of the Ukraine war that Ukraine “should have never started it” — when of course Ukraine didn’t start anything. Trump might as well say that a mugging victim shouldn’t have punched the attacker’s fist with his nose.

特朗普谈到乌克兰战争时,乌克兰“不应该发动战争”——可乌克兰当然没有发动任何战争。特朗普可能会说,一个遭抢劫的人不应该用自己的鼻子去打袭击者的拳头。

The Trump administration has lately sided with Moscow on one issue after another: Ukraine must cede territory, can’t join NATO and should hold new elections just as Russia insists. (Meanwhile, there’s no call for Russia to hold elections.) Trump even suggested that Russia should be readmitted to the Group of 7.

最近,特朗普政府在一个又一个问题上站在莫斯科一边:乌克兰必须割让领土,不能加入北约,应该像俄罗斯坚持的那样举行新选举。(与此同时,没有人呼吁俄罗斯举行选举。)特朗普甚至建议俄罗斯应该重新加入七国集团。

In a falsehood-filled rant on Truth Social on Wednesday, Trump went further. He denounced Ukraine’s elected president, Volodymyr Zelensky, as a “dictator” who had squandered money and had “better move fast or he is not going to have a country left.” Trump’s post had the tone of statements from the Kremlin.

周三,特朗普在Truth Social上发表了一篇充满谎言的咆哮,令他的言论更进一步。他谴责乌克兰民选总统泽连斯基是一个挥霍钱财的“独裁者”,要他“最好快点行动,否则他的国家将不复存在”。特朗普的帖子和克里姆林宫声明的语气如出一辙。

Trump embraced these positions of Putin without apparently negotiating much in return. Diplomacy is normally about give and take, but — as happens so often when Trump interacts with Putin — Trump has been all give.

特朗普接受了普京的这些立场,但显然没有寻求多少回报。外交通常是给予和接受,但就像特朗普与普京互动时经常发生的那样,特朗普一直都在给予。

The Trump approach to international relations buttresses Russia in other ways. His demands for territory from Panama, Greenland and Canada reinforce the Russian position that superpowers can grab whatever they want. His sanctioning of the International Criminal Court and calls for the forced removal of Gazans mark an abandonment of the rules-based international order that amplified American soft power. Trump is making Putin a winner.

特朗普处理国际关系的方式在其他方面为俄罗斯提供了支持。他对巴拿马、格陵兰岛和加拿大的领土主张强化了俄罗斯的立场,即超级大国可以攫取任何他们想要的东西。他对国际刑事法院的制裁,要求强行驱逐加沙人,标志着他放弃了以规则为基础的国际秩序,这种秩序曾经扩大了美国的软实力。特朗普正在让普京成为赢家。

Gabrielius Landsbergis, a former foreign minister of Lithuania, warns that if Trump continues to back Russia and Europe fails to step up, then “threats to European security will grow immensely. Putin will get braver, meaning more war in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and beyond.”

前立陶宛外交部长加布里埃利厄斯·兰茨贝吉斯警告说,如果特朗普继续支持俄罗斯,而欧洲不加强行动,那么“对欧洲安全的威胁将大大增加。普京将变得更加大胆,这意味着乌克兰、摩尔多瓦、格鲁吉亚等地将爆发更多战争”。

The danger goes beyond Europe. Perhaps the greatest international relations nightmare in the coming years would be a war between the United States and China, beginning near Taiwan or in the South China Sea. President Joe Biden deterred Chinese aggression by working closely with allies in Asia and making it obvious that Russia was paying a steep price for its invasion of Ukraine. If Trump instead lets Russia win and also frays relations with our allies, then China is more likely to move on Taiwan.

危险不止于欧洲。未来几年国际关系中最大的噩梦或许是美国和中国之间的战争,从台湾附近或南海开始。拜登总统与亚洲盟友密切合作,并明确表示俄罗斯正在为入侵乌克兰付出高昂代价,从而威慑了中国的侵犯。如果特朗普让俄罗斯赢了,还破坏了我们与盟友的关系,那么中国就更有可能对台湾采取行动。

“What awful times,” Patten told me. The post-World War II era has been a remarkable historical epoch of eight decades of prosperity and progress. But now, as the British foreign secretary remarked in August 1914, “the lamps are going out all over Europe,” and we must prepare for a more dangerous world.

“多么可怕的时代,”彭定康对我说。第二次世界大战结束后的80年是一个繁荣进步的非凡历史时期。但现在,正如英国外交大臣在1914年8月所说的那样,“整个欧洲的灯都熄灭了,”我们必须为一个更加危险的世界做好准备。

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