During the Biden administration, Donald J. Trump would sit in his mirrored and gold-trimmed salon at Mar-a-Lago where he had once hosted China’s leader, Xi Jinping, brooding to visitors about the outcome of the trade agreement he signed with China in 2020.

马阿拉歌庄园的沙龙镶有镜子、金碧辉煌，特朗普曾在这里接待中国领导人习近平。拜登执政期间，特朗普会坐在这里，同来访者喋喋不休地谈起他与中国2020年贸易协定的结果。

Mr. Trump would castigate “stupid people” in the White House for failing to honor “my trade agreement,” and muse about how, if he won a second term, he could strike the deal of a century with Mr. Xi.

特朗普会痛斥白宫里的“蠢人”没有履行“我的贸易协定”，并且遐想如果赢得第二个任期将如何与习近平达成世纪交易。

Now back in the Oval Office, President Trump is eyeing the possibility of a new trade deal with China.

现在，回到了椭圆形办公室，特朗普总统正在考虑与中国达成新贸易协议的可能性。

More than half a dozen current and former advisers and others familiar with Mr. Trump’s thinking say that, although there would be significant hurdles to reaching any agreement, the president would like to strike a wide-ranging deal with Mr. Xi, one that goes beyond just reworking the trading relationship.

超过六名现任和前任顾问以及其他熟悉特朗普想法的人表示，尽管达成任何协议都会遇到重大障碍，但总统希望与习近平达成一项广泛的协议，而不仅仅是重新调整贸易关系。

Mr. Trump has expressed interest in a deal that would include substantial investments and commitments from the Chinese to buy more American products (despite China’s failure to buy an additional $200 billion of goods and services under the 2020 agreement). He would like an agreement to also include issues like nuclear weapons security, which he envisions ironing out man to man with Mr. Xi, his advisers say.

特朗普表示有兴趣达成一项协议，其中将包括中国的大量投资和购买更多美国产品的承诺（尽管中国未能根据2020年的协议额外购买2000亿美元的商品和服务）。他的顾问表示，他希望达成的协议还包括核武器安全等问题，他希望与习近平一对一地解决这些问题。

Mr. Trump is already following a familiar playbook of tariffs and other threats as he looks to negotiate a deal. On Feb. 1, he hit Beijing with 10 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports — what the president called an “opening salvo” — quickly resulting in retaliation from the Chinese. He has also floated the idea of revoking the permanent normal trading relations the United States extended to China more than 20 years ago.

在寻求谈判达成协议的过程中，特朗普已经开始使用他熟悉的关税和其他威胁手段。2月1日，他对所有中国进口商品加征10%的关税——总统称之为“开场攻势”——迅速招致中国的报复。他还提出了取消20多年前美国给予中国的永久正常贸易关系地位。

China is one of the United States’ biggest national security threats, but it is also a major trading partner and a pivotal actor on a range of issues, including nuclear security, technology and pandemic preparedness.

中国是美国最大的国家安全威胁之一，但它也是美国的主要贸易伙伴，在核安全、技术和流行病防范等一系列问题上扮演着举足轻重的角色。

Whether the United States and China attain closer ties, or spiral into conflict, may come down largely to the mercurial inclinations of Mr. Trump as he pressures Beijing to give more ground to the United States.

美中是建立更紧密的关系还是陷入冲突，这在很大程度上可能取决于特朗普在向中国政府施压，让美国获得更多好处时的多变倾向。

Michael Pillsbury, a China expert who advised Mr. Trump as he negotiated a trade deal in his first term, said the president told him “a few months ago that he wants to make a deal with Xi Jinping that benefits both sides.”

曾在特朗普第一个任期内谈判贸易协议时为他提供咨询的中国问题专家白邦瑞(Michael Pillsbury)说，总统“几个月前告诉他，他希望与中国达成一项对双方都有利的协议”。

曾在特朗普第一任期内为其提供咨询的中国问题专家白邦瑞说，几个月前，总统告诉他，“他希望与习近平达成一项对双方都有利的协议”。

Mr. Pillsbury said that the Trump team was discussing issues like who would take charge of the talks, what elements of the 2020 trade deal the Chinese had failed to honor and how best to bring China back to the negotiating table.

白邦瑞表示，特朗普团队正在讨论一些问题，比如将由谁负责谈判，中国没有遵守2020年贸易协议的哪些内容，以及如何最好地将中国带回谈判桌。

“The internal debate has started,” he said.

“内部讨论已经开始，”他说。

Matthew Turpin, a White House official during the first Trump administration who is now a fellow at the Hoover Institute, said it was not surprising that Mr. Trump — who has advertised himself to American voters as a deal maker — wanted to seek a new arrangement with China, one that was favorable to the United States.

特朗普第一届政府期间的白宫官员、现任胡佛研究所研究员的马修·特平说，特朗普想与中国寻求一种对美国有利的新安排，这并不意外，他一直向美国选民标榜自己是一个交易撮合者。

“If the day ends in a ‘y,’ it’s a day that’s good for a deal,” Mr. Turpin said. But he added, “Donald Trump doesn’t want to do what he would perceive as bad deals.”

“他随时愿意达成协议，”特平说。但他补充道，“唐纳德·特朗普不想做他认为不好的交易。”

Advisers and analysts say the governments would have to overcome many obstacles to reach a deal, and that the Trump administration has not yet settled on what it wants from China. The two sides have been floating proposals to bring Mr. Xi to Mar-a-Lago, or Mr. Trump to Beijing, but no official visit is yet planned.

顾问和分析人士表示，两国政府必须克服许多障碍才能达成协议，而特朗普政府尚未确定希望从中国得到什么。双方一直在讨论让习近平访问马阿拉歌，或让特朗普访问北京的提议，但目前还没有正式访问的计划。

Advisers like Howard Lutnick, Mr. Trump’s commerce secretary; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent; and the billionaire Elon Musk have been encouraging the president’s instincts, telling him he is in a position to strike a significant agreement, a former official and another person familiar with the conversations said.

一名前官员和另一名知情人士表示，特朗普的商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克、财政部长斯科特·贝森特和亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克等顾问一直在鼓励总统使用直觉，告诉总统他有能力达成一项重大协议。

The president and his advisers blame the Chinese for not keeping to the terms of the 2020 agreement, as well as the Biden administration for failing to enforce it. Throughout Mr. Trump’s first term, he held trade talks with the Chinese, ultimately imposing tariffs on more than $300 billion of their products in an effort to force them into an agreement, levies that Mr. Biden chose to maintain.

总统和他的顾问指责中国没有遵守2020年协议的条款，也指责拜登政府没有执行该协议。在特朗普的第一个任期内，他与中国进行了贸易谈判，最终对超过3000亿美元的中国产品征收关税，以迫使中方达成协议，拜登选择维持这种关税。

In their 2020 pact, Chinese officials had pledged to open certain markets to foreign companies, better protect technology secrets and buy American crops and energy. But they never came close to meeting the purchasing targets, which Beijing said was because of the Covid pandemic.

在2020年的协议中，中国官员承诺向外国公司开放某些市场，更好地保护美国的技术秘密，并购买美国的农作物和能源。但他们从未接近实现采购目标，北京称这是由于新冠疫情。

霍华德·卢特尼克（右）等顾问一直在告诉总统，他有机会与中国达成一项重要协议。

In an executive order signed his first day, Mr. Trump ordered his advisers to review China’s compliance with the deal and decide whether to impose tariffs or other penalties by April. During his confirmation hearing in January, Mr. Bessent suggested Beijing could make “catch up” purchases to fulfill those commitments.

在上任第一天签署的行政命令中，特朗普命令顾问们审查中国对该协议的遵守情况，并在4月之前决定是否征收关税或其他惩罚措施。在今年1月的任命听证会上，贝森特表示，北京可能会进行“补足性”采购，以履行这些承诺。

Some U.S. analysts have suggested that recent weakness in the Chinese economy might make Mr. Xi more willing to strike a deal. But the U.S.-China relationship has become even more challenging in ways that could make arriving at a new pact harder.

一些美国分析人士认为，最近中国经济的疲软可能会让习近平更愿意达成协议。但美中关系在某些方面变得更具挑战性，这可能使达成新协议变得更加困难。

Weakness in its property market has forced Beijing to lean even more heavily on exports. China is flooding the world with cars, solar panels and other products, putting factories in other countries out of business.

房地产市场的疲软迫使中国政府更加依赖出口。中国的汽车、太阳能电池板和其他产品正涌入世界各地，导致其他国家的工厂倒闭。

Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade negotiator who is now a vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said any arrangement must address these thorny issues. “Even if you wanted to start a negotiation with China, it’s going to be very difficult,” she said.

美国前贸易谈判代表、现任亚洲协会政策研究所副所长的温迪·卡特勒说，任何安排都必须处理这些棘手的问题。“即使你想与中国开始谈判，也会非常困难，”她说。

The view from Beijing

北京的看法

Chinese officials seem to view Mr. Trump warily, expecting relations to remain contentious. They are aware that Mr. Trump is unafraid of imposing stiff tariffs and other penalties, but think the president’s desire to rework trade relations could bring him back to the negotiating table.

中国官员似乎对特朗普持谨慎态度，预期双方关系仍将充满争议。他们意识到特朗普不忌讳使用高额关税和其他惩罚措施，但认为总统希望重修贸易关系的愿望可能会让他回到谈判桌。

In a recent paper, Zhu Min, a former senior Chinese official and deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, and two co-authors argued that Mr. Trump will feel compelled to make good on promises to voters by promoting economic and job growth and expanding exports. On the other hand, they said, Mr. Trump “has an arrogant and self-righteous personality,” and will wield power in a “random, crude fashion.”

在最近的一篇论文中，中国前高级官员、原国际货币基金组织副总裁朱民与两位合著者认为，特朗普会觉得有必要通过促进经济和就业增长以及扩大出口来兑现对选民的承诺。另一方面，他们表示，特朗普“有一种傲慢和自以为是的个性”，他将以“随机、粗暴的方式”行使权力。

“China must understand Trump’s dual character, closely observe his behavior, negotiate with him based on his fundamental political goals as the bottom line, and exploit his erratic and volatile personality to play on that bottom line,” they wrote.

“中国必须理解特朗普的双重性格，密切观察他的行为，以他的基本政治目标为底线与他进行谈判，并利用他反复无常和不稳定的个性来把握这一底线，”他们写道。

中国山东省的一个集装箱码头。

Some Chinese analysts have downplayed the likelihood of a deal, given the increasingly antagonistic relationship. But Chinese officials and think tank experts have been working on a proposal to attract Mr. Trump’s interest, and running the idea by business people and other experts.

鉴于两国关系日益对立，一些中国分析人士对达成协议不抱太大希望。但中国官员和智库专家一直在制定一项能够吸引特朗普兴趣的提案，并向商界人士和其他专家征求意见。

According to a former diplomat, who declined to be named to discuss private conversations, one Chinese offer could include investments in the United States that would create an estimated half a million jobs in industries like solar, electric vehicles and batteries. Chinese companies are willing to discuss taking minority stakes in joint ventures or licensing their technology to American partners, the diplomat said.

据一位不愿透露姓名的前外交官透露，中国的一项提议可能包括在美国的投资，这将在太阳能、电动汽车和电池等行业创造大约50万个工作岗位。这位外交官表示，中国公司愿意讨论在合资企业中持有少数股权，或将其技术授权给美方的合作伙伴。

The proposal could also include substantial Chinese purchases of American exports, as well as cooperation on maintaining peace with North Korea and rebuilding Ukraine. It may also include promises to maintain the dollar as the pre-eminent global currency. (China and Russia’s efforts to develop an alternative have rankled Mr. Trump.)

该提案可能还包括中国大量采购美国出口产品，以及在维护与朝鲜的和平以及重建乌克兰方面的合作。它也可能包括承诺维持美元作为全球主要货币的地位。（中国和俄罗斯培育替代方案的努力已经激怒了特朗普。）

It’s not clear what the Chinese would ask for in return, though many analysts believe Mr. Xi would try to get relief from some of the tariffs Mr. Trump has imposed on the country, as well as export controls that have limited China’s access to advanced technology.

目前尚不清楚中国会寻求什么样的回报，但许多分析人士认为，习近平会希望特朗普放松对中国征收的部分关税，以及限制中国获取先进技术的出口管制。

Chinese officials and others with government ties have also been trying to develop unofficial back channels, through which leaders have historically passed information back and forth while Beijing and Washington negotiate.

中国官员和其他与政府有联系的人也一直在试图开辟非正式的沟通渠道，历史上，双方领导人在谈判时，会通过这样的渠道来回传递信息。

The Chinese have particularly been probing the role that Mr. Musk — who has extensive business interests in China through Tesla — will play in the Trump administration. Han Zheng, China’s vice president, who was sent to attend Mr. Trump’s inauguration in lieu of Mr. Xi, met with Mr. Musk in January, as well as Vice President JD Vance.

马斯克通过特斯拉在中国拥有广泛的商业利益，中国人一直在探究他将在特朗普政府中扮演什么角色。中国国家副主席韩正代表习近平参加特朗普的就职典礼，他在1月的时候会见了马斯克和副总统万斯。

It’s not clear how much Mr. Musk has discussed China with Mr. Trump. But a former official familiar with the conversations said Mr. Musk had expressed confidence that deals could be made, and that it was important for the United States to find ways to work with China to avoid heightened tensions.

目前还不清楚马斯克与特朗普就中国问题讨论过多少。但一位知情的前官员表示，马斯克曾表示有信心达成交易，并且认为美国必须找到与中国的合作方式，以避免紧张关系的升级。

The question of investment

投资问题

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特上月声称，北京可能进行“补足性”采购，以履行2020年做出的承诺。

Mr. Bessent and Mr. Lutnick — who may end up leading any negotiations with China — are considering proposals that they believe could rebalance trade, people familiar with the discussions said.

知情人士表示，最终可能会主导对华谈判的贝森特和卢特尼克正在考虑一些他们认为可以重新平衡贸易的提议。

That includes significant Chinese investments in the United States; substantial purchases of U.S. crops, airplanes and other goods; and potentially some arrangement to address Chinese manufacturing overcapacity.

这包括中国在美国的大量投资；大量购买美国农产品、飞机和其他商品；以及有可能做出一些安排，来解决中国制造业产能过剩的问题。

Mr. Lutnick declined to comment. Mr. Bessent, Mr. Musk and a spokesman for the White House did not respond to a request for comment. A person familiar with Mr. Bessent’s views, who requested anonymity to discuss his thinking, said Mr. Bessent was primarily focused on enforcement of China’s prior trade commitments at this point, not future demands.

卢特尼克拒绝置评。贝森特、马斯克和白宫发言人没有回应置评请求。一位熟悉贝森特观点但要求匿名的人士表示，贝森特目前主要关注的是中国对先前的贸易承诺的执行情况，而不是未来的要求。

Welcoming Chinese factory investment in the United States could be particularly divisive within the Trump administration, given that several officials — including Secretary of State Marco Rubio; Mike Waltz, the national security adviser; and Peter Navarro, senior trade counselor — see Chinese investment as a security threat.

鉴于包括国务卿马可·鲁比奥、国家安全顾问迈克·沃尔茨和高级贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗在内的多位官员将中国投资视为安全威胁，欢迎中国工厂到美国投资可能会在特朗普政府内部尤其引发分歧。

Federal and state governments, as well as Congress, have also taken a stricter stance on Chinese purchases of technology companies and real estate in recent years.

近年来，联邦和州政府以及国会也对中国收购科技公司和房地产采取了更严格的立场。

But Mr. Trump has considered deals where others would not, like supporting an investment by Japan’s Nippon Steel in U.S. Steel, and finding an acquirer to rescue TikTok. While campaigning, Mr. Trump said he would welcome Chinese companies to build auto plants in the United States, as long as they hired locally.

但特朗普也曾考虑过其他人不会做的交易，比如支持日本新日铁对美国钢铁公司的投资，以及寻找收购者来拯救TikTok。特朗普在竞选期间表示，他欢迎中国公司在美国建造汽车厂，只要他们在当地雇佣员工。

One person familiar with meetings Mr. Trump attended during his first term to review incoming investments for national security issues said that the president had dismissed intelligence community assessments about the risks and argued for selling assets to the Chinese, as long as the price was right.

一位熟悉特朗普在第一个任期内相关情况的人士表示，他在审查境外投资国家安全问题的会议上对情报部门的评估提出了不同意见，主张只要价格合适，就应该向中国出售资产。

Unlike other officials, Mr. Trump does not appear to have a strong ideological stance on U.S. technology restrictions on China or Taiwanese democracy, instead viewing them as another source of leverage over Beijing.

与其他官员不同的是，特朗普似乎对美国的对华技术限制，以及对台湾民主都不持强烈的意识形态立场，而是将其视为对北京施压的筹码。

Mr. Trump also sees the relationship with China in personal terms, as an issue to iron out between himself and the Chinese leader. In his first month in office, Mr. Trump has taken an aggressive approach to the foreign leaders of Canada, Colombia, Denmark and Panama, but has had positive words for Mr. Xi.

特朗普还从个人角度看待对话关系，认为这是他和中国领导人之间需要解决的问题。在上任的第一个月里，特朗普对加拿大、哥伦比亚、丹麦和巴拿马的外国领导人采取了咄咄逼人的态度，但对习近平却给予了正面评价。

In January, Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social that he and Mr. Xi would cooperate to make the world more peaceful and safe.

1月，特朗普在Truth Social上写道，他与习近平的合作将使世界变得更加和平与安全。

“It is my expectation that we will solve many problems together, and starting immediately,” he said.

“我期望我们能一起解决许多问题，而且是立即开始，”他说。