When President Trump threatened tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China in January, saying those countries needed to do more to stop the flow of drugs and migrants into the United States, Canadian and Mexican officials raced to Washington, bearing charts and videos detailing their efforts to toughen their borders.

今年1月，特朗普总统威胁要对加拿大、墨西哥和中国征收关税，称这些国家需要采取更多措施阻止毒品和移民流入美国，加拿大和墨西哥官员带着图表和视频赶到华盛顿，详细介绍了他们为加强边境管制所做的努力。

Canada created a “fentanyl czar” and committed fresh resources to combating organized crime, while Mexico dispatched troops to the border and delivered cartel operatives into U.S. custody. As a result, Mr. Trump paused tariffs on America’s North American neighbors for 30 days.

加拿大设置了他们的“芬太尼沙皇”，投入了新的资源来打击有组织犯罪，墨西哥则向边境派遣了军队，并将贩毒集团成员移交给美国。因此，特朗普暂停了对美国北美邻国的关税，为期30天。

China never made these kinds of overtures and, in Mr. Trump’s view, did not take any big moves to stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States. So on Feb. 4, Mr. Trump moved forward with imposing a 10 percent tariff on all Chinese imports. Last week, the president said that on March 4 he would add another 10 percent on top of all existing Chinese tariffs.

中国从未做出过此类表态，而且，在特朗普看来，也没有采取任何重大举措来阻止芬太尼流入美国。因此，特朗普在2月4日对所有中国进口商品征收10%的关税。上周，总统表示，他将于3月4日在中国所有现有关税的基础上再增加10%。

Mr. Trump is moving quickly to transform the U.S.-China trade relationship. The Chinese are moving much more cautiously and deliberately as they try to assess Mr. Trump and determine what it is he actually wants from China. Some of Mr. Trump’s advisers, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have held calls with their Chinese counterparts. But a call between Mr. Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s leader, has failed to materialize.

特朗普正在迅速改变美中贸易关系。而中方在试图评估特朗普，确定他到底想从中国这里得到什么时，则要谨慎小心得多。财政部长斯科特·贝森特和国务卿鲁比奥等特朗普的顾问已经与中国同级官员通了电话。但特朗普与中国领导人习近平之间的通话尚未实现。

The situation underscores the quandary for foreign leaders in dealing with a president as unpredictable and unconventional as Mr. Trump, who is making substantial changes to trade terms with little advance notice or preparation.

这种情况凸显了外国领导人在与特朗普这样不可预测、不按常理出牌的总统打交道时的窘境，特朗普在几乎没有事先通知或准备的情况下就对贸易条款做出了重大改变。

The Chinese do not want to initiate a conversation because they do not want to be seen as pleading, and are wary of offering concessions before they understand the parameters of the debate, people familiar with the discussions said. Instead, Chinese officials, academics and others close to the government have been holding discreet conversations to try to determine Mr. Trump’s motives, while floating various aspects of a potential trade deal between the countries to assess the Americans’ reaction.

知情人士表示，中方不愿主动发起对话，因为他们不想被视为在恳求，而且，在充分认识争论相关的诸多因素之前，他们不想急于做出让步。中国官员、学者和其他与政府关系密切的人选择进行私下谈话，试图确定特朗普的动机，同时提出两国之间可能达成的贸易协议的各个方面，以评估美国人的反应。

“With my experience with the Chinese, they are suspicious in the initial rounds of a negotiation that there are hidden traps or other reasons to be cautious,” said Michael Pillsbury, a China expert who advises the Trump administration on dealing with the country.

为特朗普政府提供对华建议的中国问题专家白邦瑞(Michael Pillsbury)说，“根据我与中国人打交道的经验，他们在谈判的最初几轮中会怀疑有什么隐藏的陷阱，或者其他需要谨慎的理由。”

The Chinese side has conveyed they would like to work with the United States on mutually beneficial measures. But they have been struggling to identify people in the United States that they see as reliable channels for communication, according to a person close to the Chinese government.

中方表示愿与美方共同努力，采取互利措施。但据一位与中国政府关系密切的人士透露，他们一直努力在美国寻找他们认为可靠的沟通渠道。

They are also trying to assess the significance of some recent steps by the administration, like a memorandum that proposed strict limits on investment between the countries. Mr. Trump publicly contradicted that memo days after he signed it, saying he welcomed Chinese investment.

他们还试图评估政府最近采取的一些措施的意义，比如一份提议严格限制两国之间投资的备忘录。在签署备忘录几天后，特朗普的公开言论与该备忘录相矛盾，称他欢迎中国的投资。

“I think the Chinese are in a wait and listen mode,” said Myron Brilliant, who has spent years working with businesses to understand the Chinese and recently returned from a trip to China. “They’re taking in all kinds of input, they’re beginning their consultations, they’re not pushing the panic button just yet.”

“我认为中国人正处于等待和倾听的模式，”多年来与企业合作以了解中国人的薄迈伦(Myron Brilliant)说，他最近刚从中国旅行回来。“他们正在听取各种意见，他们正在开始咨询，他们还没有按下恐慌按钮。”

“There is a willingness, an appetite to do a deal with the Trump administration, but China doesn’t want preconditions on that, and seeks more clarity on the parameters of a deal,” said Mr. Brilliant, a senior counselor at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group, an advisory firm.

“他们有意愿、有兴趣与特朗普政府达成协议，但中国不希望这样的协议有什么先决条件，而是希望它的范围更加明确，”薄迈伦说，他在咨询公司DGA-奥布赖特·斯通布里奇集团担任高级顾问。

前中国驻美国大使崔天凯，摄于2023 年。他是据称上个月在华盛顿会见智库代表的代表团成员之一。

In late February, a delegation including Cui Tiankai, the former Chinese ambassador to the United States, met with representatives of think tanks in Washington, according to more than half a dozen people familiar with the discussions.

据六名以上知情人士透露，2月下旬，包括前中国驻美大使崔天凯在内的一个代表团在华盛顿会见了一些智库的代表。

Over meetings and dinners, the Chinese delegation conveyed hope that the countries could reach an accommodation, and floated ideas for a potential trade deal, including significant purchases of American agricultural products and Chinese investment in the United States, several people said.

几位知情人士表示，在会晤和晚宴上，中国代表团表示希望两国能够达成和解，并提出了可能达成贸易协议的想法，包括大量购买美国农产品和中国在美国的投资。

They called for treating China as an equal partner and criticized past measures taken by the Biden administration to “contain” China, like export controls. The delegation also threatened that, if further U.S. tariffs went into effect, China could withdraw a law enforcement package that it had put together to combat the fentanyl trade, which included information that could be used to prosecute Chinese companies, one of the people said. They acknowledged that the Chinese economy was struggling and that more tariffs could hurt it.

他们呼吁将中国视为平等的合作伙伴，并批评拜登政府过去采取的出口管制等“遏制”中国的措施。其中一名知情人士说，中国代表团还威胁称，如果美国进一步征收关税，中国可能会撤回为打击芬太尼贸易而制定的一套执法方案，其中包括可用于起诉中国公司的信息。他们承认，中国经济面临困难，更多的关税可能会造成损害。

Current and former advisers and others familiar with Mr. Trump’s thinking say he has expressed interest in striking a wide-ranging deal with Mr. Xi, which could involve Chinese purchases and investment, as well as cooperation on issues like nuclear security.

现任和前任顾问以及其他熟悉特朗普想法的人说，他已表示有兴趣与习近平达成一项范围广泛的协议，其中可能涉及中国的采购和投资，以及在核安全等问题上的合作。

But Mr. Trump also believes that China reneged on the deal he signed with it in 2020 by not purchasing enough products. Mr. Trump also has no aversion to ramping up the pressure on Beijing by imposing tariffs, seeing them as a source of leverage in negotiations.

但特朗普也认为，中国没有购买足够的产品，违背了他在2020年与中国签署的协议。同时他也会毫不犹豫地通过征收关税来加大对北京的压力，并将关税视为谈判中的筹码。

Mr. Trump has said he has a great relationship with Mr. Xi and would like the Chinese to invest in the United States. When asked in February if he would do a trade deal with China, Mr. Trump responded, “It’s possible.”

特朗普曾表示，他与习近平的关系很好，希望中国人到美国投资。今年2月，当被问及是否会与中国达成贸易协议时，特朗普回答说，“有可能。”

“We did a great trade deal with China,” he said. “The problem is that Biden didn’t push them to adhere to it.”

“我们与中国达成过一项很好的贸易协议，”他说。“问题在于，拜登并没有敦促他们遵守这个协议。”

中国国家主席习近平上月在北京出席民营企业座谈会。习近平和特朗普之间的通话到目前为止尚未实现。

In an interview on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, said that instead of stopping the manufacturing of fentanyl, the Chinese were giving “the maximum subsidy” to people making the ingredients.

商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克在接受福克斯新闻“周日早间期货”(Sunday Morning Futures)节目采访时表示，中国非但没有停止芬太尼的生产，反而给制造原料的人提供了“最大限度的补贴”。

“The Chinese need to stop this murder of Americans,” he said.

“中国人需要停止这种谋杀美国人的行为，”他说。

The tariffs that Mr. Trump has threatened to impose on China since coming into office are already roughly comparable to those he imposed during his first administration, said Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. In 2018, Mr. Trump put tariffs ranging from 7.5 to 25 percent on more than $350 billion of Chinese imports, levies that remain in effect.

华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心高级顾问斯科特·肯尼迪说，特朗普上台以来威胁要对中国征收的关税已经与他在第一届政府期间征收的关税大致相当。2018年，特朗普对超过3500亿美元的中国进口商品征收7.5%至25%的关税，这些关税目前仍然有效。

“It’s still early days,” Mr. Kennedy said. “This should be seen as the floor of what’s imposed, not the ceiling.”

“现在还早，”肯尼迪说。“这应该被视为征收关税的底线，而不是上限。”

Beijing has so far been cautious in retaliating, answering Mr. Trump’s first volley of tariffs with a more limited number of its own. But it has signaled that it is willing to go further, possibly using its dominance in the global supply chain to exact pain.

迄今为止，北京在报复方面一直很谨慎，以数量更有限的关税来回应特朗普的第一波关税攻势。但它已经发出信号，表示愿意走得更远，可能会利用其在全球供应链中的主导地位来施加压力。

The Chinese delegation that included Mr. Cui had come to New York as China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, visited the United Nations. While Mr. Wang did not continue on to Washington, according to one source, the Chinese embassy helped to arrange meetings for Mr. Cui in the nation’s capital.

包括崔天凯在内的中国代表团在中国最高外交官王毅访问联合国期间来到纽约。据一名消息人士透露，虽然王毅没有继续前往华盛顿，但中国大使馆帮助安排了崔天凯在美国首都的会晤。

Senior Communist Party officials including Fang Xinghai, the former deputy chief of China’s markets regulator, and the economist Zhu Min, also traveled to Washington and met with some members of the think tank community and government.

包括前中国证券监督管理委员会副主席方星海和经济学家朱民在内的共产党高级官员也前往华盛顿，会见了一些智库界和政府成员。

The Chinese appear to be exploring the best points of contact for their government. In the previous Trump administration, the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, served as an important go-between, as did private sector figures. Recently, the Chinese have been probing the role that Elon Musk — who has extensive business interests in China through Tesla — will play in the Trump administration.

中国人似乎在为政府寻找最好的联络点。在上一届特朗普政府中，总统的女婿贾里德·库什纳和私营部门人士都是重要的中间人。最近，中国人一直在探讨埃隆·马斯克——他通过特斯拉在中国拥有广泛的商业利益——将在特朗普政府中扮演的角色。

Privately, the Chinese have indicated a willingness to start negotiating a deal but want to know that they have direct access to Mr. Trump.

中国人私下表示愿意开始谈判达成协议，但他们希望可以直接接触特朗普。

“There seems to be a sense that Beijing is blaming what has happened on the poor communication channels,” said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a research group in Washington.

华盛顿研究机构史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵说，“似乎有一种感觉，北京在把发生的事情归咎于沟通渠道不畅。”

Chinese academics and think tank officials have begun floating various ideas for a trade deal. One proposal is for the Chinese to make major investments in the United States in areas like electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels, which could create an estimated 500,000 U.S. jobs, according to one person with direct knowledge of the proposal. In an unusual move, Chinese companies would be willing to license technology to American partners and hold minority stakes in ventures to mitigate national security concerns, the person said.

中国学者和智库官员已经开始就贸易协议提出各种想法。据一名直接了解该提议的人士透露，其中一项提议是让中国在电动汽车、电池和太阳能电池板等领域大举投资，这可能为美国创造约50万个就业岗位。这位知情人士说，中国企业将愿意向美国合作伙伴授权技术，并在合资企业中持有少数股权，以减轻国家安全方面的担忧，这是一个不同寻常的举动。

去年，工人们在江苏省常州市一家工厂组装运动型多用途车。该公司是中国主要的电动汽车生产商。

Another tentative offer is the purchase of goods and services from the United States in agriculture, aerospace, energy and possibly even technology. The Chinese have also suggested buying more U.S. Treasuries, and honed in on a concern Mr. Trump recently voiced about a move by a handful of nations, including China and Russia to create a new reserve currency, threatening the U.S. dollar. The Chinese have proposed Beijing could stand down on that effort.

另一个试探性的提议是从美国购买农业、航空航天、能源，甚至可能是技术方面的商品和服务。中国还建议购买更多美国国债，并且重点提出了特朗普最近表达的一个担忧——包括中国和俄罗斯在内的少数几个国家正在创建一种新的储备货币，威胁到美元。中国提出，北京可以放弃这一努力。

Chinese diplomats and academics have indicated that Beijing might also help the United States achieve a deal between Russia and Ukraine and assist in Ukraine’s reconstruction.

中国外交官和学者表示，北京也可能帮助美国在俄罗斯和乌克兰之间达成协议，并协助乌克兰重建。

In return, the Chinese have suggested that the United States should commit to stabilizing the economic relationship. That could mean refraining from further tariffs and technology controls, and allowing more Chinese investment in the United States.

作为回报，中国建议，美国应致力于稳定两国经济关系。这可能意味着避免进一步的关税和技术控制，并允许中国在美国进行更多投资。

Given national security concerns in the United States about closer ties with China, it’s not clear that the two sides could find agreement on any of these issues. And some analysts say that Mr. Trump’s moves to ratchet up tariffs are making any conciliation from the Chinese less likely, since Mr. Xi will not want to look as if he’s caving to Mr. Trump.

鉴于美国对与中国建立更紧密关系的国家安全担忧，目前尚不清楚双方能否在这些问题上达成一致。一些分析人士表示，特朗普提高关税的举动使中方妥协的可能性降低，因为习近平不想让人觉得他在向特朗普屈服。

“We are watching opportunities fly by and the longer you wait, the more hostility there is in the room and less time there is for both sides to come to an agreement,” Ms. Sun said.

“我们眼看着机会溜走，等待的时间越长，敌意就越多，双方达成协议的时间就越少，”孙韵说。