2025年3月11日
Wall Street suffered its steepest decline of the year on Monday, a drop fueled by angst about the economy a day after President Trump refused to rule out the possibility that his policies could trigger a recession.
周一,华尔街遭遇了今年以来最大幅度的下跌。就在前一天,特朗普总统拒绝排除其政策可能引发经济衰退的可能性,这引发了人们对经济的担忧,正是这种担忧推动了此次股市的下跌。
The S&P 500 slid 2.7 percent, the worst daily fall in an already three-week-long stretch of selling. The index is now roughly 9 percent below a record set last month, and approaching a “correction,” a Wall Street term for a decline of 10 percent or more from a recent high.
标准普尔500指数下跌2.7%,这是已持续三周的抛售行情中最大的单日跌幅。该指数目前较上月创下的纪录低了约9%,接近“修正”,这是一个华尔街术语,指从近期高点下跌10%或更多。
Over the past few weeks, Mr. Trump has threatened, imposed, suspended and resumed tariffs on America’s largest trade partners: Canada, Mexico and China. The dizzying shifts, including last-minute exemptions for some automakers and energy products, have unnerved investors.
过去几周,特朗普对加拿大、墨西哥和中国这几个美国最大的贸易伙伴威胁、征收、暂停和恢复关税。这些令人眼花缭乱的变化,包括一些汽车制造商和能源产品在最后一刻获得豁免,令投资者感到不安。
“The market volatility is much less about the bad news of tariffs and much more about the uncertainty of tariffs, especially uncertainty as to what the policy is, where it is headed, how long it will last and what the end result will be,” said David Bahnsen, the chief investment officer at the Bahnsen Group.
巴恩森集团首席投资官戴维·巴恩森表示:“市场波动与关税的坏消息关系不大,更多的是与关税的不确定性相关,尤其是政策内容、政策走向、政策持续时间以及最终结果方面的不确定性。”
In a Fox News interview that aired on Sunday, Mr. Trump was asked about “rising worries about a slowdown,” by the host, Maria Bartiromo. He described what might follow as “a period of transition,” and didn’t rule out the possibility that his policies would cause a recession. Asked during the interview when businesses might have clarity on the on-again, off-again tariff policies, Mr. Trump responded by suggesting that more tariffs could come.
在周日播出的福克斯新闻采访中,主持人玛丽亚·巴蒂罗姆询问特朗普“对经济放缓的担忧日益加剧”问题。他将接下来的时间描述为“一段过渡期”,并没有排除他的政策会导致经济衰退的可能性。当被问及企业何时可能对反反复复的关税政策产生清晰认识的时候,特朗普的回应暗示,可能会有更多的关税出台。
“We may go up with some tariffs. It depends. We may go up. I don’t think we’ll go down, or we may go up,” he said. “They have plenty of clarity.”
“我们可能会提高一些关税。这要看情况。我们可能会提高。我认为我们不会减少,也可能提高,”他说。“它们已经足够清晰了。”
On Monday, retaliatory tariffs by China on U.S. agricultural products came into effect. On Wednesday, the Trump administration is set to put in place a 25 percent tariff on all U.S. steel and aluminum imports. Mr. Trump has also threatened to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on all U.S. imports to match other countries’ tariffs and trading policies next month.
周一,中国对美国农产品的报复性关税生效。周三,特朗普政府将对所有进口钢铝征收25%的关税。特朗普还威胁要在下个月对所有美国进口商品征收“对等关税”,与其他国家的关税和贸易政策相匹配。
A White House spokesman, Kush Desai, said in a statement on Monday: “Since President Trump was elected, industry leaders have responded to President Trump’s America First economic agenda of tariffs, deregulation and the unleashing of American energy with trillions in investment commitments that will create thousands of new jobs. President Trump delivered historic job, wage and investment growth in his first term, and is set to do so again in his second term.”
白宫发言人库什·德赛周一在声明中表示:“自特朗普总统当选以来,行业领袖们以数万亿美元的投资承诺回应了特朗普总统的美国优先经济议程,包括关税、放松监管和释放美国能源,这些承诺将创造成千上万新的就业机会。特朗普总统在他的第一个任期内实现了历史性的就业、工资和投资增长,并有望在他的第二个任期内再次实现这样的目标。”
The S&P 500 has now erased all the gains it made since Election Day. The Nasdaq has been hit even harder, as a rally in big tech stocks driven by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence reversed course. The index fell into a correction last week, and dropped a further 4 percent on Monday.
标普500指数现在已经抹去了选举日之后的所有涨幅。纳斯达克受到的冲击更大,受人工智能热情推动的大型科技股涨势逆转。该指数上周进入修正期,周一进一步下跌4%。
“There’s just no support in the tech stocks right now,” said Larry Tentarelli, the chief technical strategist at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report.
“现在科技股没有支撑,”蓝筹每日趋势报告的首席技术策略师拉里·坦塔雷利说。
Many tech companies have grown so large that movements in their stocks have an outsize influence on the broader market. On Monday, several of the biggest companies were down sharply: Tesla plunged more than 15 percent, adding to a losing streak that’s come amid falling sales and as investors worry that its chief executive, Elon Musk, has been distracted by his role in the Trump administration. Alphabet, Apple and Nvidia each fell more than 4 percent.
许多科技公司已经发展得如此庞大,以至于它们的股票走势对大盘具有超乎寻常的影响力。周一,几家最大的公司股价大幅下跌:特斯拉股价暴跌超过15%,延续了该公司的连跌趋势,此前该公司的销量不断下降,投资者担心它的首席执行官马斯克因自己在特朗普政府中的角色而分心。“字母表”公司、苹果和英伟达的跌幅均超过4%。
Stocks in Europe and Asia were also under pressure, but the declines paled in comparison with losses on Wall Street. An index tracking the eurozone’s largest public companies, which hit a record last week, dropped 1.3 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.9 percent.
欧洲和亚洲股市也面临压力,但与华尔街相比,它们的跌幅相对较小。追踪欧元区最大上市公司的指数上周跌了1.3%,创下历史新高。香港恒生指数下跌1.9%。
Investors seeking havens continued to opt for the relative safety of bonds, pushing down the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.22 percent; bond prices move inversely to yields. The combination of falling stocks and declining interest rates is often seen as a sign of economic unease. Oil prices also fell, another signal of concern about the broader economy.
寻求避险的投资者继续选择相对安全的债券,推动10年期美国公债收益率降至4.22%;债券价格与收益率呈反向变动。股市下跌和利率下降的结合通常被视为经济不安的信号。油价也在下跌,这是人们对整体经济感到担忧的另一个信号。
Those worries are also reflected by traders’ bets that the Federal Reserve will resume cutting the rate it controls, pricing in three or more such cuts this year, according to CME FedWatch. Stock investors generally embrace rate reductions, which lower the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers, but not when they are spurred by concerns about the economy.
这些担忧也反映在交易员的押注上,他们认为美联储将恢复降息,根据CME FedWatch的预测,今年将有三次或更多次降息。股市投资者一般会欢迎降息,因为这可以降低企业和消费者的借贷成本,但在被经济的担忧刺激下,他们就不会这样想了。
Monday’s losses were Wall Street’s worst since December, when the Federal Reserve dialed down expectations for interest rate cuts in response to the continued strength of the U.S. economy. As in previous rounds of selling, stocks did eventually recover their footing as concerns about the economy eased and lower market valuations drew in bargain seekers.
周一的跌幅是华尔街自去年12月以来最大的一次,当时美联储因美国经济持续强劲而调低了降息预期。与前几轮抛售一样,随着对经济的担忧有所缓解,以及较低的市场估值吸引了抄底的投资者,股市最终恢复了元气。
By most measures, the U.S. economy is still in good shape. On Friday, the latest data on hiring showed that employers continue to add workers at a healthy pace.
从大多数方面来看,美国经济仍处于良好状态。上周五,最新的招聘数据显示,雇主继续以稳健速度增加就业岗位。
But economists have turned gloomier as they come to grips with Mr. Trump’s seesawing approach to tariffs, which has hamstrung businesses trying to plan investments and hiring. Cuts to the federal work force and government spending freezes have also dented consumer sentiment.
但经济学家们对特朗普在关税问题上摇摆不定的态度变得更加忧虑,这种做法阻碍了试图规划投资和招聘的企业。联邦政府裁员和政府支出冻结也打击了消费者信心。
“The markets are scared of the uncertainty that the tariff rhetoric is bringing,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities.
“市场对关税言论带来的不确定性感到害怕,”国家联盟证券公司的国际固定收益主管安德鲁·布伦纳表示。
A report on inflation due this week will be closely watched, as surveys of consumers suggest that they expect price increases to pick up, a potentially worrying sign for the Fed as it tries to bring inflation down further. The rising cost of eggs and other necessities has squeezed shoppers’ wallets, and tariffs and mass deportations could push prices higher.
将于本周发布的一份通胀报告将受到密切关注,因为对消费者的调查显示,他们预计物价将加速上涨,这对试图进一步降低通胀的美联储来说可能是一个令人担忧的迹象。鸡蛋和其他必需品价格的上涨让消费者的钱包吃紧,而关税和大规模驱逐可能会进一步推高价格。
Given a murkier outlook for the American economy, “the recent moves might well have further to go,” Jan Hatzius, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a note on Monday. Strategists at the bank recently increased the chances of a U.S. recession in the coming year to 20 percent.
高盛首席经济学家扬·哈齐乌斯在周一的一份报告中说,鉴于美国经济前景更加不明朗,“近期的走势很可能还会持续。”该银行的策略师们最近将美国经济在未来一年陷入衰退的可能性提高到了20%。
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase warned in a report that the spillover from a possible U.S. slowdown has resulted in a “materially higher risk of a global recession this year due to extreme U.S. policies.” They put the probability of such a downturn at 40 percent.
摩根大通的分析师在一份报告中警告称,“由于美国的极端政策”,美国经济可能放缓的溢出效应导致“今年全球经济衰退的风险大大增加”。他们认为出现这种衰退的可能性为40%。