2025年3月11日
Throughout China’s annual legislative meeting, the national leader Xi Jinping made clear that he wants nothing to hold back his plans for China to march past its rivals by becoming a technological superpower. Not the economic slowdown or heavy local government debt, nor a trade war with the United States.
在中国的年度立法会议上,国家领导人习近平明确表示,他不希望任何事情阻碍他让中国超越对手、成为科技超级大国的计划。经济放缓或沉重的地方政府债务,乃至与美国的贸易战,都无法阻挠。
The meeting in Beijing, called the National People’s Congress, was once a stage for Communist Party leaders to make a show of public consultation. Congress delegates, although handpicked by the party, sometimes chided officials over problems like pollution. There were even rare flashes of discord among senior officials.
在北京召开的全国人民代表大会曾是共产党领导人展示公众意见的舞台。人大代表虽然由共产党精心挑选,但有时也会就污染等问题指责官员。高级官员之间甚至曾经罕见地闪现出不和的迹象。
Mr. Xi, though, has turned the meeting into a meticulously orchestrated, weeklong salute to himself and his vision. This time, he urged China to forge ahead in advanced technologies including artificial intelligence, biotechnology and new weapons.
不过,习近平把这次为期一周的会议变成了一场精心策划的活动,在其中向他自己和他的愿景致敬。这一次,他敦促中国在包括人工智能、生物技术和新武器在内的先进技术领域不断取得进展。
“Xi has seen how decades of investment into science by the U.S. government after World War II was a knockout success for the United States, and wants to replicate that,” said Jimmy Goodrich, who studies China’s science policies as a senior adviser at RAND, an organization that provides analysis to the U.S. government and other clients.
“习近平看到,‘二战’后美国政府对科学的数十年投资给美国带来了巨大的成功,中国希望复制这种成功,”为美国政府和其他客户提供分析的兰德公司高级顾问、研究中国科学政策的吉米·古德里奇说。
“He believes strongly that only by being more self-sufficient and a global leader in science can China achieve success in upgrading its economy, boosting its military capabilities and achieving world-leader status,” Mr. Goodrich said.
“他坚信,只有更加自给自足,成为全球科学的领导者,中国才能成功地升级经济,增强军事能力,取得世界领先地位,”古德里奇说。
Mr. Xi’s implicit message is that other efforts, such as restoring the confidence of China’s private entrepreneurs, must align with that bigger national goal.
习近平的隐含信息是,恢复中国私营企业家的信心等其他努力必须与更大的国家目标保持一致。
The annual congress allows Mr. Xi to give his priorities the gloss of public approval. Dissenting votes from the nearly 3,000 delegates have become exceedingly rare.
一年一度的代表大会让习近平可以给他的工作重点增加一道公众认可的光环。与会的近3000名代表投反对票的情况极为罕见。
习近平与江苏省代表会谈,与会者在认真记笔记。
Mr. Xi’s agenda told the story. On the first day of the congress, Mr. Xi met with delegates from Jiangsu Province — an industrial powerhouse — and told them to “seize on scientific and technological innovation.” The delegates were shown on state television diligently writing down his comments.
习近平的日程安排说明了一切。在大会的第一天,习近平会见了来自工业大省江苏省的代表,告诉他们要“抓科技创新”。国家电视台播放的画面上,代表们认真记下习近平的讲话。
On the second day, Mr. Xi heard reports from scientists and education officials and emphasized the role of education in building China into a “science and technology great power.”
第二天,习近平听取了科学家和教育官员的报告,他强调教育在把中国建设成为“科技强国”中的作用。
On the third day, Mr. Xi put on his green military uniform to meet members of the People’s Liberation Army. He demanded that China’s military become more efficient in implementing modernization plans, rooting out graft, and also more nimble in applying advanced technologies to “accelerate the development of qualitatively new combat capabilities.”
第三天,习近平穿上绿色军装,会见人民解放军代表。他要求中国军队更高效地实施现代化计划,铲除贪腐,更灵活地应用先进技术,以便“加快发展新质战斗力”。
The public summary of his comments gave no details, but China’s military has been working on next-generation jet fighters, unmanned drones, new submarines and other weapons.
他讲话的公开摘要没有提供细节,但中国军方一直在研究下一代喷气式战斗机、无人驾驶飞机、新型潜艇和其他武器。
Mr. Xi’s priorities were also reflected in China’s annual budget, which projects that government spending on science and technology will rise by 8.3 percent this year, on education by 6.1 percent and on the military by 7.2 percent. The government set more modest increases of around 5 percent in spending on health care and social welfare.
习近平的优先事项也反映在中国的年度预算中,预计今年政府在科技方面的支出将增长8.3%,教育支出增长6.1%,军事支出增长7.2%。政府在医疗保健和社会福利方面的支出增幅较小,约为5%。
习近平与解放军代表会谈,呼吁军队发展出新的战斗力。
The Chinese government’s science and technology budget this year is equal to about $172 billion, second to the United States. But government cuts under Mr. Trump could narrow the U.S. lead. Including investment from businesses, the United States spent $806 billion on research and development in 2021, compared to $668 billion in China, according to an estimate last year from the U.S. National Science Foundation.
中国政府今年的科技预算约为1720亿美元,仅次于美国。但特朗普政府的削减可能会缩小美国的领先优势。根据美国国家科学基金会去年的估计,包括企业投资在内,美国在2021年的研发支出为8060亿美元,而中国为6680亿美元。
“Over the past six or seven years of U.S.-China strategic competition, the two most important issues have been geopolitics and technology,” said Wang Hsin-hsien, a professor at National Chengchi University in Taipei who studies Chinese politics. “In China they probably see that there may be a little less pressure on them geopolitically, but there won’t be any easing up from Trump on the technology front.”
“在过去六七年的中美战略竞争中,最重要的两个问题是地缘政治和技术,”位于台北的国立政治大学研究中国政治的教授王信贤说。“在中国,他们可能会看到,他们在地缘政治上的压力可能会减轻一点,但特朗普在技术方面不会有任何放松。”
Some critics have argued that Mr. Xi’s bet on futuristic goals comes at the cost of providing help to Chinese citizens struggling to make ends meet. The economy is still sagging under a steep fall in housing prices. The number of retirees is growing and the birthrate has slumped. Yet Mr. Xi appears insistent that China can overcome its problems by tilting spending to technological projects and upgrading industry.
一些批评人士认为,习近平对未来目标的押注,意味着那些艰难度日的中国国民将得不到帮助。在房价急剧下跌的影响下,经济仍处于低迷状态。退休人员的数量在增加,出生率在下降。然而,习近平似乎坚持认为,中国可以通过向技术项目和产业升级倾斜支出来克服困难。
So far, Mr. Xi has not indicated a willingness to rein in China’s export drive after Mr. Trump imposed additional tariffs on goods from China.
在特朗普对来自中国的商品征收额外关税后,到目前为止,习近平还没有表示控制中国出口的意愿。
习近平把为期一周的会议变成了一场精心策划的活动,向他自己和他的愿景致敬。
Nor does Mr. Xi seem worried about any threats to his political dominance. After more than 12 years in power, he has given no sign of choosing a successor. The retired leaders who may once have hemmed in his power have mostly passed away. He has never slackened his tight grip on the key levers of power, such as the Ministry of State Security, said Jonathan Czin, a researcher at the Brookings Institution who formerly worked in the Central Intelligence Agency and studies Chinese politics.
习近平似乎也不担心他的政治统治地位会受到任何威胁。执政12年多后,他没有任何选择继任者的迹象。曾经可能限制他权力的退休领导人大多已经去世。研究中国政治、曾在中央情报局工作的布鲁金斯学会研究员席恩(Jonathan Czin)说,他从未放松对国家安全部等关键权力机构的牢牢控制。
“So far, I see zero evidence of meaningful cracks in Xi’s control. Who at this point in Xi’s tenure would have the temerity to challenge Xi?” Mr. Czin said. “He wields the anti-corruption apparatus like a cudgel, ready to bludgeon any potential opponent.”
“迄今为止,我没有看到任何证据表明习近平的控制出现有意义的裂痕。在习近平的任期内,谁有胆量挑战习近平?”席恩说。“他操纵的反腐机器就像一把大棒,随时准备打击任何潜在的对手。