President Trump’s tariffs mean that companies across the European Union and around the world are at risk of losing access to the world’s largest consumer market.

特朗普总统的关税意味着整个欧盟乃至全球的企业正面临失去进入世界最大消费市场的风险。

Naturally, they are looking for the next big thing. Statistically speaking, that would mean China.

他们自然要开始寻找下一个重要市场。从统计角度来看，那意味着中国。

The E.U. has the second-largest consumer market in the world behind America; China is third. But China and the E.U. have not exactly been cozy in recent years. Europe has regularly blasted China for overproducing and dumping artificially cheap products on the global market, and European leaders have criticized China’s stance toward Russia’s war in Ukraine, among other political and social issues.

欧盟拥有仅次于美国的全球第二大消费市场，中国则排在第三位。但近年来，中欧关系并不融洽。欧洲经常严厉批评中国产能过剩，并向全球市场倾销人为压低价格的商品，欧洲领导人还对中国在俄罗斯对乌克兰战争中的立场，以及其他政治和社会问题对其提出批评。

Still, the E.U. is staring down 20 percent across-the-board tariffs in the United States, and even higher levies on major products like cars and trucks. China is confronting rates in excess of 50 percent. There’s a small chance that those tariffs could drive the two large economies closer together, experts said — an unintended consequence at a time when Mr. Trump’s America has been trying to weaken China.

尽管如此，欧盟正面临美国的20%全面关税，汽车和卡车等主要商品的税率甚至更高。中国所面临的税率则超过50%。专家表示，这些关税有一线可能推动这两大经济体走得更近——这是一个意想不到的结果，尤其是在特朗普政府正试图削弱中国之际。

There have been early hints of a thaw. The E.U. imposed higher tariffs on Chinese-made electrical vehicles last year, but China’s commerce ministry said at a news conference on Thursday that the two sides had agreed to restart negotiations. Olof Gill, an E.U. spokesman for trade, said officials had agreed to “continue discussions” on electric vehicle supply chains and take a “fresh look” at pricing.

目前已经出现了一些双方关系缓和的初步迹象。欧盟去年对中国制造的电动汽车征收了更高关税，但中国商务部在周四的新闻发布会上表示，双方已同意重启谈判。欧盟贸易发言人奥洛夫·吉尔称，双方官员已同意就电动汽车供应链问题“继续展开讨论”，并“重新审视”定价问题。

But there is an even greater possibility that this moment will tear the E.U. and China further apart. China’s reduced access to American consumers could prod its companies to send even more cheap metals, chemicals and other products in Europe’s direction, worsening concerns about dumping and heightening already-high tensions on other matters. Relations between the two nations could deteriorate, widening the damage as America blows up longstanding global trade patterns.

但更有可能的情况是，当前的局势会使中欧关系进一步疏远。中国进入美国消费者市场的渠道减少可能会促使中国企业向欧洲出口更多廉价金属、化工产品及其他商品，加剧欧洲对倾销的担忧，并在其他议题上激化本已高度紧张的关系。在美国打破长期以来的全球贸易格局之际，中欧关系可能因此恶化，造成更大范围的破坏。

“There’s two ways that this could play,” said Theresa Fallon, an analyst at the Center for Russia, Europe, Asia Studies in Brussels. “Europe is in a really tough position.”

“可能会有两种走向，” 位于布鲁塞尔的俄罗斯、欧洲和亚洲研究中心的分析师特蕾莎·法伦表示，“欧洲的处境非常艰难。”

特朗普总统和美国商务部长卢特尼克周四在华盛顿阐明新的关税。

Europe is responding quickly to Mr. Trump’s trade war. It plans to finalize next week initial lists of goods destined for retaliatory tariffs, and officials have promised more will come. It is also trying to negotiate to get rid of the tariffs.

欧洲正在迅速回应特朗普的贸易战。欧盟计划在本周敲定首批准备征收报复性关税的商品清单，官员们承诺未来还会有更多措施出台。同时，欧盟也试图通过谈判取消关税。

If the U.S. tariffs are not quickly negotiated away, Europe — and China — could find themselves looking for new consumers.

如果美国关税不能迅速通过谈判取消，欧洲和中国都可能需要寻找新的消费者市场。

Another big part of Europe’s strategy? Making new friends.

欧洲战略的另一大重点？结交新朋友。

Since late last year, the bloc has worked to expand relations with India, South American countries, South Africa, South Korea and Mexico. It has also drawn nearer to Canada and the United Kingdom, especially on defense issues.

自去年底以来，欧盟一直在努力扩大与印度、南美国家、南非、韩国和墨西哥的关系。它与加拿大和英国的关系也变得更加密切，尤其是在国防事务上。

Yet the U.S. is difficult to replace with one-off trade deals elsewhere because of the sheer size of its consumer market: $18.8 trillion in 2024, according to World Bank data. The E.U. trails at about $10 trillion, China at about $7 trillion. America is the E.U.’s most important export market.

然而，美国的消费市场规模巨大，很难通过与其他国家达成一次性的贸易协议来替代。根据世界银行的数据，2024年美国的消费市场规模达到18.8万亿美元，欧盟约为10万亿，中国约为7万亿。美国是欧盟最重要的出口市场。

Filling a U.S.-shaped void with China, while mathematically obvious, would be tricky. China and the E.U. have been moving further apart in recent years, with declining trade flows, and regular accusations by the E.U. that China is using trade practices that distort the market.

用中国来填补美国留下的空白尽管在数学上看似合理，实际操作却可能很棘手。近年来，中欧渐行渐远，贸易流量不断减少，而且欧盟还经常指责中国使用扭曲市场的贸易手段。

Europe’s dilemma when it comes to China has been on full display in the way that European leaders have talked about the Asian nation in recent months.

近几个月来，欧洲领导人在谈论中国时所表现出的态度，充分展现了欧盟在中国问题上的两难处境。

“We must engage constructively with China,” Ursula von der Leyen, who heads the E.U.’s executive arm, said during a speech in Davos, Switzerland, in January. She talked about expanding trade and investment ties “where possible.”

“我们必须与中国建设性地接触，”欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩1月在瑞士达沃斯的一次演讲中表示。她谈到了“在可能的情况下”扩大贸易与投资联系。

But when Mr. Trump’s tariff announcements came out this week, a flood of cheap goods coming from Asia was an immediate concern.

但当特朗普上周宣布新一轮关税后，大量亚洲廉价商品涌入的可能性立即引发担忧。

“We will also be watching closely what indirect effects these tariffs could have, because we cannot absorb global overcapacity, nor will we accept dumping on our market,” Ms. von der Leyen warned in her televised response on Thursday to the Trump tariffs.

“我们也会密切关注这些关税可能带来的间接影响，因为我们无法消化全球的产能过剩，也不会接受对我们市场的倾销行为。”冯德莱恩周四在电视上发表对特朗普关税的回应时警告说。

The E.U. and China are to have a summit this year, though details on timing and location have yet to be determined.

欧盟和中国将于今年举行峰会，但具体的时间、地点尚未确定。

Noah Barkin, a Berlin-based visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund and a specialist on China, said: “Trump’s tariffs are likely to divert a massive amount of Chinese exports into the E.U.”

德国马歇尔基金会驻柏林的高级客座研究员、中国问题专家诺亚·巴金表示：“特朗普的关税很可能会让中国大量出口转向欧盟。”

“The bloc is likely to throw its entire trade policy toolbox at Beijing in response,” he added. “It is difficult to envision a scenario where this ends well for the E.U.-China relationship.”

“欧盟很可能会动用全部贸易政策工具来应对北京，”他补充道，“很难想象这种局势会给中欧关系带来好的结果。”