There was little rest on Wall Street this weekend. There was plenty of anger, anxiety, frustration and fear.

这个周末的华尔街没有片刻安宁。到处弥漫着愤怒、焦虑、沮丧和恐惧。

Anger at President Donald Trump for a brash and chaotic rollout of tariffs that erased trillions of dollars in value from the stock market in two days. Anxiety about the state of the private equity industry and other colossal funds with global investments. Frustration among Wall Street’s elite at their sudden inability to influence the president and his advisers.And fear of what may come next.

人们对特朗普总统感到愤怒，他鲁莽而混乱地推出关税政策，致使股市在两天内蒸发了数万亿美元。大家对私募股权行业以及其他进行全球投资的大型基金的状况感到焦虑。华尔街精英因突然无法对总统及其顾问施加影响而感到沮丧。并且，他们还对接下来可能发生的事情心怀恐惧。

Hedge funds tallied up their losses and bragged if they only lost a little. Bankers and lawyers tore up already sparse calendars for deal-making, reasoning that no chief executive would risk a big merger or public offering soon. Major banks played out emergency scenarios to guess whether one client or another would fail in the cascading effects of an international trade war.

对冲基金计算着自己的损失，损失较小的还会吹嘘一番。银行家和律师们扔掉了手上仅有的那几份交易企划，他们推断短期内不会有首席执行官愿意冒险进行大规模的企业合并或公开募股。各大银行模拟各种紧急情况，试图猜测在国际贸易战的连锁反应下，哪位客户会面临倒闭风险。

In conversations with The New York Times over the weekend, bankers, executives and traders said they felt flashbacks to the 2007-08 global financial crisis, one that took down a number of Wall Street’s giants. Leaving out the brutal, but relatively short-lived, market panic that erupted at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the velocity of last week’s market decline — stocks fell 10% over just two days — was topped only by the waves of selling that came as Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008.

在这个周末与《纽约时报》的交谈中，银行家、企业高管和交易员们表示，他们仿佛看到了2007–08年那场全球金融危机，当时有多家华尔街巨头倒下。除去新冠疫情初期爆发的那段残酷但相对短暂的市场恐慌，上周市场下跌的速度——股市仅两天就下跌了10%——仅次于2008年雷曼兄弟倒闭时引发的抛售潮。

Like then, the breadth of the sudden downdraft — with oil, copper, gold, cryptocurrencies and even the dollar caught up in the sell-off — has Wall Street’s biggest players wondering which of their competitors and counterparties was caught off guard. Banks have asked trading clients to post additional funds if they want to continue borrowing money to trade — so-called margin calls that haven’t nearly reached the level of a generation earlier but are nonetheless causing unease.

与那次一样，这次突然的下跌范围很广——石油、铜、黄金、加密货币，甚至美元都被卷入了抛售潮——这让华尔街的巨头们不禁猜测，他们的哪些竞争对手和同类会遭遇不测。银行已经在告知交易客户，如果想继续借钱进行交易，需要存入更多的资金——这种所谓的保证金催缴通知的数量目前还远未达到上一代人经历的那种程度，但仍让人感到不安。

Most hedge funds and other private investors don’t share details of their portfolios daily or weekly, so it will take more than a weekend for the potential damage to be known. One venture capitalist, speaking on condition of anonymity because he had not formally notified his investors, estimated that his portfolio had lost $1.5 billion. That’s if his thinly traded investments could be sold at all.

大多数对冲基金和其他私人投资者不会每天或每周都公布其投资组合的详细信息，所以要知道潜在的损失情况，仅仅一个周末的时间是不够的。一位风险投资人估计他的投资组合已经损失了15亿美元。这还得是他那些交易量低迷的投资最终能卖出才行。由于尚未正式通知投资者，他要求在本文中匿名。

“It definitely feels similar to 2008,” said Ran Zhou, a New York hedge fund manager at Electron Capital, who canceled weekend plans and put on a button-up shirt to sit in his Manhattan office and read Chinese news sources to get the jump on China’s plans.

“这感觉确实和2008年很像，”电子资本的纽约对冲基金经理周冉（音）说。他取消了周末的计划，穿上正装衬衫，坐在曼哈顿的办公室里阅读中国的新闻，以便对中国的计划能有个预先的了解。

What is unique about this crisis is that rather than counting on the government to help pick up the pieces, the financial sector sees little hope of an immediate rescue. A world order built on interconnectedness has been ripped up by the White House itself, and the United States’ position at the epicenter of that network is in doubt.

这次危机的独特之处在于，金融行业并不指望政府来收拾残局，他们觉得政府立即出手救援的希望渺茫。一个建立在互联互通基础上的世界秩序已被白宫自己打破，而美国作为这个网络的中心的地位也受到了质疑。

“The pain is self-inflicted” by Trump, said Mike Edwards, an adviser for a private investor, who spent the weekend on calls with other investors, starting late Friday.

“这种痛苦是特朗普自己造成的，”私人投资者顾问迈克·爱德华兹说。从周五晚些时候开始，他整个周末都在和其他投资者通电话。

“You’re not going to learn anything with a calculator,” he said in an interview Saturday from his home in Connecticut. “It’s more about what your neighbor is doing than what’s the right price.”

“靠计算器你什么也了解不到，”周六他在康涅狄格州的家中接受采访时说，“现在更重要的是你的同行在做什么，而不是什么是合理的价格。”

For generations, Wall Street enjoyed a role advising the leaders of both major political parties, and there was hope that the appointment of Scott Bessent, a hedge fund manager and onetime Democrat, as Trump’s Treasury secretary, meant the industry had a friend near the Oval Office.

多年来，华尔街一直扮演着为两大主要政党领导人的顾问角色。人们曾希望，对冲基金经理、曾是民主党人的斯科特·贝森特获任特朗普的财政部长意味着这个行业有了一个可以接近椭圆形办公室的朋友。

Bessent, however, has shrugged off the tumult. “The market consistently underestimates Donald Trump,” he said Sunday on NBC program “Meet the Press.”

然而，贝森特对这场动荡却不以为然。“市场一直都低估了唐纳德·特朗普，”他周日在NBC的《会见媒体》节目中说。

That has left even some of Trump’s bigger Wall Street defenders with little to do but gripe publicly.

这使得即使是特朗普在华尔街的一些坚定支持者也无计可施，只能公开抱怨。

“It was fun while it lasted,” Daniel S. Loeb, a billionaire hedge fund manager, wrote on the social platform X last week in a post he later deleted.

“好日子过去了，”身家亿万的对冲基金经理丹尼尔·勒布上周在社交平台X上写道，他后来删除了这一条。

There were some bright spots. Several bank and hedge fund executives pointed out that, despite the frenzied selling, trading in the wake of the tariff announcement had so far proceeded without any unexpected glitches, a point that Bessent also made Sunday.

但也不是没有亮点。几位银行和对冲基金高管指出，尽管出现了疯狂抛售，但到目前为止，关税宣布后的交易进行得还算顺利，没有出现任何意外故障，贝森特周日也提到了这一点。

“Everything is working very smoothly,” he said during the NBC interview.

“一切都进展得非常顺利，”他在接受NBC采访时说。

“市场一直都低估了唐纳德·特朗普，”财政部长斯科特·贝森特周日在NBC《会见媒体》上说。

A senior executive at one major bank also said there was relief after a call Friday night with the bank’s regional heads and top executives that nobody could point to a specific client in danger of immediate implosion.

一家大银行的一位高管还表示，周五晚上银行各地区负责人和高管通完电话后，大家松了一口气，因为没人能指出有哪个特定客户面临即将崩溃的危险。

Traders at $66 billion hedge fund Citadel, had, for roughly a month, been reducing the use of leverage and other volatile trading instruments as the fund’s founder, Ken Griffin, became increasingly convinced that Trump would cause tumult, said two employees not permitted to be named discussing the fund’s machinations. The hedge fund, which approached the brink of collapse in 2008, was roughly flat last week, they said.

两名因无权讨论基金策略而要求匿名的员工称，管理着660亿美元资产的对冲基金城堡投资的交易员们，在大约一个月的时间里，一直在减少杠杆和其他高波动性交易工具的使用，因为该基金的创始人肯·格里芬越来越确信特朗普会引发动荡。他们说，这家在2008年曾濒临倒闭的对冲基金上周大致保持平稳。

In interviews, investment bankers said they had been flooded with calls from big companies willing to pay hefty fees for advice on how to proceed. At the bank Lazard, the message to employees was to be available for clients but not to offer conviction about what would happen next, given the immense uncertainty of the moment.

在接受采访时，投资银行家们表示，他们接到了大量来自大公司的电话，这些公司愿意支付高额费用，就如何应对当前局势寻求建议。在拉扎德投资银行，传达给员工的信息是要随时为客户服务，但鉴于当下的巨大不确定性，不要对接下来会发生什么表现出笃定的判断。

Indeed, the true depth of the impact is yet to be determined. Bank of America estimates that profits for companies in the S&P 500 may fall by one-third if retaliatory levies are enacted by the countries subject to Trump’s tariffs. But the dire assessments could change, if countries begin to strike agreements with the White House that will lower the tariffs.

的确，此次影响的真正深度尚未确定。美国银行估计，如果那些受到特朗普关税政策影响的国家实施报复性征税，标准普尔500指数成分股公司的利润可能会下降三分之一。但如果各国开始与白宫达成降低关税的协议，这些严峻的评估可能会改变。

Even before the latest tariffs were announced, U.S. deal-making in the first quarter fell 14% compared with last year, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. And in the middle of last week’s meltdown, some of the highly anticipated public offerings that bankers had hoped would set the stage for other listings were pulled or paused, including offerings by payments giant Klarna and StubHub, the online ticketing business.

根据伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析公司的数据，甚至在最新的关税政策宣布之前，美国第一季度的交易活动就已经比去年下降了14%。在上周市场崩溃期间，许多备受期待的公开募股项目——银行家门本指望这些项目能给其它公司的上市铺路——有的被撤回，有的被暂停，其中包括支付巨头Klarna和在线票务公司StubHub的上市计划。

One bank executive said he planned to spend more time in Europe, where deals in the first quarter outpaced those in the United States.

一位银行高管表示，他计划多花些时间在欧洲，因为欧洲第一季度的交易活动超过了美国。

Two private equity executives said they expected that market turmoil and souring global relations would make it more difficult for private firms like theirs to raise money, adding to the challenges they are already facing as a dwindling deals market has made it harder to return cash to their investors. Pressures on those firms will only increase as the businesses they invest in begin to feel the impact of tariffs, these executives said. Shares of Apollo and KKR fell more than 20% Thursday and Friday.

两名私募股权高管表示，他们预计市场动荡和全球关系的恶化将使像他们这样的私人公司更难筹集资金，这也加剧了他们已经面临的挑战，因为交易市场的萎缩使得他们更难向投资者返还现金。这些高管表示，随着他们投资的企业开始感受到关税的影响，这些公司面临的压力只会增加。Apollo和KKR的股价在周四和周五下跌了超过20%。

Few companies have discussed their outlooks publicly since last week’s tariff announcements, but major banks including JPMorgan and Wells Fargo will begin holding investor calls to address their earnings (and prospects) Friday.

自上周关税政策宣布以来，几乎没有公司公开讨论过他们的前景，但包括摩根大通和富国银行在内的各大银行将于周五开始举行投资者电话会议，讨论其收益情况（以及前景）。

The uncertainty was neatly exemplified by Loeb, who Saturday wrote on X: “Sometimes market bottom when things look most bleak.”

勒布的话很好地体现了这种不确定性，他周六在社交平台X上写道：“有时候，市场是在情况看起来最糟糕的时候见底的。”

“Not a prediction,” he added, “but keeping an open mind.”

“这不是预测，”他补充道，“只是保持开放的心态。”