Will your next iPhone cost $2,000? More? The answer to that question — and the future of America’s wealthiest company and our imperiled financial markets — rests on one man with a very tricky task.

你的下一部iPhone会不会要2000美元？还是更贵？这个问题的答案，连同美国最富有的公司和我们岌岌可危的金融市场的未来，都取决于一个人，他肩负着非常棘手的任务。

Steve Jobs might have been the visionary who made touch-screen phones a reality, but it was the operational genius and savvy statesmanship of Tim Cook, his low-key successor, that sent Apple’s revenues and its stock price into the stratosphere. His triumph in fending off Donald Trump’s first-term threats was not without cost, however: By flattering Mr. Trump with attention while making little to no changes to Apple’s China ties, Mr. Cook played the president for the fool.

将触屏手机变为现实的梦想家或许是乔布斯，但让苹果的营收和股价突破天际的，却是他那位低调的继任者蒂姆·库克的运营天赋和老练的政治手腕。库克在抵御唐纳德·特朗普第一个总统任期内的威胁时所取得的胜利并非没有代价：他一边百般讨好特朗普，一边对苹果与中国的关系几乎未做任何改变，把总统玩弄于股掌之间。

Now Mr. Trump is back in the White House, and he has slapped China with tariffs so high that they present a major threat to Apple’s hammerlock on the smartphone market. It’s clearly going to be harder for Mr. Cook to pull off the same trick. If he fails — and most bet he will — it could be a huge blow to his company, to the stock market and to our broader economy.

如今特朗普重返白宫，对中国加征的关税之高已严重威胁到苹果在智能手机市场的绝对优势。很显然，库克若想故技重施，难度会比上次更大。若他失败——大多数人都不看好他——将对苹果公司、股市乃至更为广泛的经济造成重创。

Let’s start with a sense of the stakes. Apple has largely been the world’s most valuable company since 2011, and until Mr. Trump’s tariff threats, it was worth around 8 percent of the entire S&P 500. If your retirement is invested in index funds, Apple is your single biggest investment. It’s so enormous that merely issuing a quarterly profit warning, as the company did in early 2019, rattled global financial markets.

让我们先来了解一下其中的利害关系。自2011年以来，苹果基本上一直是全球市值最高的公司，在特朗普发出关税威胁之前，其市值约占标普500指数的8%。如果你的退休金投资于指数基金，那么苹果公司就是你最大的单笔投资。它是如此巨大，以至于像该公司在2019年初所做的那样，光是发布季度盈利预警，就足以让全球金融市场陷入不安。

Then let’s turn to the fact that moving production to the United States — the stated goal of Mr. Trump’s extreme tariff regime — is almost impossible for Apple. China is home to roughly 90 percent of Apple’s global production, and it’s the only country where Apple has made such extraordinary investments in people, machinery and processes over a quarter-century.

再来看一个事实：将生产转移到美国——这是特朗普极端关税政策所宣称的目标——对苹果公司来说几乎是不可能的。苹果约90%的全球生产都是在中国进行，而且也是苹果在过去25年里持续重金投入人力、设备和工艺创新的唯一国家。

Analysts at the firm Wedbush estimated that a domestically built iPhone would cost more than triple its current price tag, which would mean about $3,500. Worse, America simply lacks the manufacturing expertise, the competitive industrial clusters and even the population density required to make Apple products en masse.

Wedbush的分析师估算，美国本土组装iPhone的成本将是目前价格的三倍多，约3500美元。更糟的是，美国根本缺乏大规模制造苹果产品所需的制造技术、产业集群，甚至没有大规模生产苹果产品所需的人口密度。

Many Apple suppliers are heavily reliant on China’s low-paid workers who migrate to cities for seasonal work, a number estimated at 300 million to 500 million adults, which even at its lower extent is nearly equivalent to every man, woman and child in the United States. In the busy holiday season, these workers are critical to Apple’s ability to ship one million iPhones per day, with each unit comprising roughly 1,000 components. Trying to move all manufacturing out of China would most likely cost hundreds of billions of dollars.

许多苹果供应商极度依赖中国进城务工的低薪劳动力，据估计这类工人的数量在3亿到5亿成年人之间，即便取下限，这个数字也几乎相当于美国的全部人口，男女老少统统包括在内。在繁忙的假日季，这些工人对于苹果实现日产百万部iPhone（每部含约1000个零部件）至关重要。将全部产能移出中国，很可能要耗资数千亿美元。

So in 2016, when Mr. Trump was urging his supporters to boycott Apple products and threatening huge China tariffs, little wonder that Mr. Cook, a quiet Democrat and a strong supporter of L.G.B.T.Q. rights and diversity initiatives, went on a charm offensive. He made a point of calling Mr. Trump and visiting frequently. The next year, Mr. Trump said that Mr. Cook vowed to build “three big plants, beautiful plants” in America.

因此，在2016年，当特朗普敦促他的支持者抵制苹果产品，并威胁要对中国征收巨额关税时，难怪库克这位低调的民主党人、LGBTQ权益和多元化倡议的坚定支持者，展开了魅力攻势。他特意给特朗普打电话，还经常拜访他。第二年，特朗普说，库克发誓要在美国建造“三座大工厂，漂亮的工厂”。

The flattery worked, with Apple gaining broad exemptions from Mr. Trump’s tariffs. But Apple built zero plants in the United States. Its chief executive simply ran out the clock on Mr. Trump’s presidency.

这种奉承奏效了，苹果公司获得了特朗普关税的广泛豁免。但苹果在美国没有建造任何工厂。它的首席执行官只是成功耗完了特朗普的总统任期。

Since then, Apple has only grown closer to the Middle Kingdom, winning over Chinese officials by helping Chinese companies mimic, and then oust, rival multinationals that were responsible for building China’s tech manufacturing dominance over the past decade, my reporting has shown. Apple’s annual reports show the number of Chinese vendors in its top-supplier list more than tripled, to 52, from 2012 to 2023, displacing their American and Taiwanese rivals.

从那以后，苹果与中国的关系愈发紧密。我的报道显示，苹果公司通过帮助中国企业模仿然后取代那些在过去十年里助力中国建立起科技制造业优势的跨国竞争对手，赢得了中国官员的好感。苹果公司的年报显示，从2012年到2023年，其顶级供应商名单中的中国供应商数量增加了两倍多，达到52家，挤掉了美国和台湾的竞争对手。

Mr. Cook donated $1 million to and attended Mr. Trump’s 2025 inauguration. And a few weeks later Apple pledged to “spend and invest” $500 billion to expand “support for American manufacturing” during the president’s second term. Mr. Trump boasted that the investment reflected his “America First” agenda.

库克向特朗普2025年的总统就职典礼捐款100万美元，并出席了典礼。几周后，苹果公司承诺在总统的第二个任期内“支出并投资”5000亿美元，以扩大“对美国制造业的支持”。特朗普吹嘘说，这项投资体现了他的“美国优先”议程。

That promise alone won’t be enough to save Apple. Some of Mr. Trump’s advisers must realize that Apple’s promise may be nonsense. There’s little evidence the company will spend anywhere near $500 billion; the announcement mentioned just four new initiatives whose total investment is unlikely to be even one-tenth that amount. Unless the math misleadingly includes buybacks and dividends, which have nothing to do with American manufacturing, or unless further projects are really planned, the pledge, like the one Mr. Cook made in Mr. Trump’s first term, is hot air.

仅凭这个承诺还不足以拯救苹果。特朗普的一些顾问肯定意识到，苹果的承诺可能是无稽之谈。几乎没有证据表明该公司将投入近5000亿美元；公告中只提到了四项新举措，其投资总额可能连这个数字的十分之一都不到。除非计算结果为了误导，故意包含了与美国制造业毫无关系的回购和分红，或者另有未公开的进一步计划，否则这一承诺就像库克在特朗普第一任期内所作的一样，只是空头支票。

And this time, Mr. Trump’s tariffs are far more onerous. Set to take effect on Wednesday, they are the biggest threat to Apple’s business since Mr. Jobs returned to save the company from near bankruptcy in 1997. Analysts from Rosenblatt Securities estimated they could diminish Apple’s annual profits by $40 billion. Not only did Mr. Trump say last week that he would impose a steep 54 percent tariff on China (including earlier increases); he also included at least 90 other countries, effectively short-circuiting Apple’s efforts to reroute products through Vietnam (tariffs: 46 percent) or India (27 percent). In responding with tariffs of its own, China shows no sign of backing down from a fight. Nor does Mr. Trump, who is pushing ahead with an additional 50 percent tariff first threatened on Monday.

而这一次，特朗普的关税要严厉得多。关税于周三生效，这是自乔布斯1997年回归拯救濒临破产的苹果公司以来，苹果业务面临的最大威胁。罗森布拉特证券公司的分析师估计，这些关税可能使苹果公司的年利润减少400亿美元。特朗普不仅在上周表示将对中国征收54%的高额关税（包括之前加征的关税），而且还将至少其他90个国家包括在内，从而有效地切断了苹果公司通过越南（税率46%）或印度（税率27%）改变产品路线的努力。中国以自己的关税措施进行回应，没有表现出任何退缩的迹象。特朗普也没有退缩，正在推动进一步加征的计划。

Apple is stuck, and there is no obvious way out. Even if it were possible for Mr. Cook to move Apple production out of China immediately, he would risk stirring Beijing’s ire and endangering a roughly $70 billion business there. His only option is to continue pushing more final assembly of Apple products to places like India and Vietnam while leaving the bulk of complex manufacturing in China — walking a line that grows ever thinner and more precarious. Apple shares have lost more than $1 trillion since peaking in late December.

苹果公司陷入了困境，而且没有明显的出路。即使能立即将苹果的生产迁出中国，库克也有可能激怒北京，并危及苹果公司在那里价值约700亿美元的业务。他唯一的选择是继续将更多苹果产品的最终组装工作转移到印度和越南等地，同时把大部分复杂的制造环节留在中国——这是一条越来越狭窄、越来越危险的道路。自去年12月底达到峰值以来，苹果公司的股价已经蒸发逾1万亿美元。

Mr. Trump would be a fool not to see past Apple’s politicking this time. Then again, he often cares more about appearances than principles. Anyone betting on Apple’s future should hope Mr. Cook has one more diplomatic ace up his sleeve. This time, the odds against him are long.

如果特朗普这次不能识破苹果的政治手段，那他可就太愚蠢了。话又说回来，他往往更看重表象而非原则。任何押注苹果未来的人都应该希望库克手里还有一张外交王牌。但这一次，他的胜算实在不大。