China has for years presented an economic challenge for Europe. Now, it could become an economic disaster.

多年来，中国一直对欧洲构成着经济挑战。现在，它可能变成一场经济灾难。

It produces a vast array of artificially cheap goods — heavily subsidized electric vehicles, consumer electronics, toys, commercial grade steel and more — but much of that trade was destined for the endlessly voracious American marketplace.

中国生产了种类繁多、人为压低价格的商品——获得大量补贴的电动汽车、消费类电子产品、玩具、商业级钢材等等——但这些商品大部分的去向是需求永无止境的美国市场。

Now, with many of those goods facing an extraordinary wall of tariffs thanks to President Trump, fear is rising that more products will be dumped in Europe, weakening local industries in France, Germany, Italy and the rest of the European Union.

现在，由于特朗普总统的政策，许多此类商品面临着极高的关税壁垒，人们越来越担心，会有更多的产品倾销到欧洲，削弱法国、德国、意大利和欧盟其他国家的本土工业。

Those nations now find themselves trapped in the middle of Mr. Trump’s spiraling trade war with China. Their leaders are straddling a fine line between capitulation and confrontation, hoping to avoid becoming collateral damage.

这些国家现在陷入了特朗普与中国不断升级的贸易战中。他们的领导人在妥协和对抗之间小心翼翼地维持着平衡，希望避免成为这场贸易战的附带牺牲品。

“The overcapacity challenge has taken a long time, but it has finally arrived in European capitals,” said Liana Fix, a Washington-based fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “There is a general trend and a feeling in Europe that in these times, Europe has to stand up for itself and has to protect itself.”

“产能过剩的挑战由来已久，但现在终于摆在了欧洲各国政府面前，”美国外交关系委员会驻华盛顿研究员利亚娜·菲克斯表示。“欧洲存在一种普遍的趋势和感觉，那就是在这个时候，欧洲必须捍卫自己，保护好自己。”

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, has promised to “engage constructively” with China even as she has warned about the “indirect effects” of the American tariffs and has vowed to closely watch the flow of Chinese goods. A new task force will monitor imports for signs of dumping.

欧盟委员会主席乌苏拉·冯德莱恩尽管对美国关税的“间接影响”提出了警告，并誓言密切关注中国商品的流动，但她也承诺与中国进行“建设性的接触”。一个新的特别工作组将对进口商品实施监测，看是否存在倾销迹象。

“We cannot absorb global overcapacity nor will we accept dumping on our market,” Ms. von der Leyen said as Mr. Trump’s tariffs went into effect.

“我们不能吸收全球的产能过剩，也不会接受在我们的市场上出现倾销行为，”冯德莱恩在特朗普的关税生效时表示。

Her tough but measured message to both China and the United States has impressed trade experts who say it may be the best chance for Europe to avoid economic disaster. Janka Oertel, the director of the Asia program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, called it a “sober” response to the threat from Beijing.

她向中国和美国都发出了强硬而有分寸的信息，给贸易专家留下了深刻印象，他们表示，这可能是欧洲避免经济灾难的最佳机会。欧洲对外关系委员会亚洲项目主任扬卡·厄特尔称，这是对北京的威胁作出的“冷静”回应。

上个月，东莞一家玩具制造商的工人在生产车间。欧洲已经成立了一个新的特别工作组来监测进口是否存在倾销迹象。

“They continue to stand their ground on China, because otherwise they lose it,” she said.

她说：“他们继续在中国问题上坚持自己的立场，否则就会失去自己的立场。”

But the high stakes moment is testing the continent’s unity.

但这一高风险时刻正在考验欧洲大陆的团结。

Pedro Sánchez, the Spanish prime minister, last week traveled to Beijing to meet with President Xi Jinping, urging greater engagement with China as a hedge against U.S. tariffs. His outreach, captured visually in a handshake with the Chinese leader, came even as Ms. von der Leyen and the leadership of the European Commission, the bloc’s executive branch, continue to demand assurances from Beijing that the dumping would not accelerate.

西班牙首相佩德罗·桑切斯上周前往北京与习近平主席会面，他敦促加强与中国的接触，以对冲美国的关税。他与中国领导人握手的画面生动地展现了他示好的姿态，与此同时，冯德莱恩和欧盟的行政机构欧盟委员会的领导层继续要求北京保证倾销不会加速。

Germany last year opposed higher electric vehicle tariffs imposed by the European Union, afraid that China would raise taxes on its own car industry. In Britain, no longer a member of the bloc, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has called for “consistent, durable, respectful” relations with China as he struggles to jump-start his country’s sluggish economy.

去年，德国反对欧盟提高电动汽车关税，担心中国会增加对德国汽车行业的关税。在已不再是欧盟成员国的英国，首相斯塔默呼吁与中国建立“一致、持久、尊重”的关系，他正在努力推动英国低迷的经济复苏。

“The worst-case scenario is high U.S. tariffs” while at the same time “China is flooding the European market,” said Noah Barkin, a senior adviser for the Rhodium Group, a policy research organization. He said that would be “a double whammy for European industry. That is what Europe wants to avoid.”

政策研究机构荣鼎咨询高级顾问诺亚·巴金说，“最坏的情况是美国征收高关税”，与此同时，“中国的商品大量涌入欧洲市场”。他表示，这将“对欧洲工业造成双重打击，这是欧洲想要避免的情况”。

Leaders who argue that closer ties with China may be part of the answer, like Mr. Sánchez in Spain and Mr. Starmer in Britain, have found it to be a politically winning message at a time when their countries are eager for more foreign investment.

西班牙的桑切斯和英国的斯塔默等领导人认为，与中国建立更紧密的联系可能是答案的一部分，在他们的国家渴望更多外国投资的时候，这一主张在政治上很有市场。

Announcements of a new Chinese factory that will eventually create thousands of jobs are popular at home. But at times, that eagerness can threaten to undercut a consistent, European message on trade.

宣布中国将在本国建设新工厂，最终能创造数以千计就业岗位的消息，这样的消息在国内广受欢迎。但有时，这种渴望可能会削弱欧洲在贸易问题上的一贯立场。

在南昌组装电动汽车的工人。

“Spain sees things very differently from Poland,” said Theresa Fallon, director at the Center for Russia, Europe, Asia Studies in Brussels. “There’s an ongoing debate in Europe about what their stance toward China should be.”

“西班牙看待问题的角度与波兰截然不同，”位于布鲁塞尔的俄罗斯、欧洲、亚洲研究中心主任特蕾莎·法伦说。“欧洲内部一直在讨论对中国应该采取何种立场。”

But trade experts say the economic relationship between Europe and China is rooted in a decades-old reality: a Chinese marketplace that is effectively closed to many European companies because of regulatory burdens and the Communist Party’s buttressing of Chinese companies. The European trade deficit with China was nearly $332 billion (€292 billion) in 2023.

但贸易专家说，欧洲和中国之间的经济关系植根于一个存在了数十年的现实：由于监管负担和共产党对中国公司的支持，中国市场实际上对许多欧洲公司是关闭的。2023年，欧洲对中国的贸易逆差接近3320亿美元（2920亿欧元）。

The E.U. leadership describes China as a “a systemic rival,” and relations with the Asian nation have soured in recent years for a host of reasons, including China’s support of Russia as it wages war on Ukraine.

欧盟领导人将中国描述为“系统性对手”，近年来，由于一系列原因，其中包括中国在俄罗斯对乌克兰发动战争时对俄罗斯的支持，欧盟与这个亚洲国家的关系恶化。

Recent conversations between top European commissioners and their Chinese counterparts have contained blunt warnings from the European side.

最近，在欧盟高级专员与中国同级官员之间的对话中，欧方发出了直言不讳的警告。

“Current E.U.-China trade relations remain unbalanced,” the European Commission said in a statement after Maros Sefcovic, the bloc’s trade commissioner, visited Beijing to discuss market access. The statement hinted at tensions during the visit, saying that China and Europe have a widening trade deficit “fueled by illegal subsidies.”

在欧盟贸易专员马罗什·谢夫乔维奇访问北京讨论市场准入问题后，欧盟委员会在一份声明中表示：“目前欧盟与中国的贸易关系仍然不平衡。”声明暗示了访问期间存在的紧张气氛，并称中国和欧洲的贸易逆差在“非法补贴”的推动下不断扩大。

European officials have for years demanded concessions from China that include voluntary restraints on the shipment of cheap goods and minimum prices to offset large government subsidies that European businesses charge are unfair.

多年来，欧洲官员一直要求中国做出让步，包括自愿限制廉价商品的出口，并设定最低价格，以抵消欧洲企业认为不公平的巨额政府补贴。

Meanwhile, Chinese officials have seemed eager in recent days to paint Europe as an increasingly close trading partner. China’s readout after Mr. Sefcovic’s visit to Beijing had little mention of hard talk. It said that Mr. Sefcovic had described China as “an important partner” and that the two economies would “jointly resist unilateralism and protectionism.”

与此同时，中国官员近日来似乎急于把欧洲描绘成一个日益密切的贸易伙伴。在谢夫乔维奇访华之后，中国在发布的消息中几乎没有提到强硬对话。声明称，谢夫乔维奇称中国是“重要合作伙伴”，双方经济将“共同抵制单边主义和保护主义”。

深圳的集装箱，摄于本月。

And after Mr. Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, China’s Commerce Ministry said it had agreed to restart negotiations with the bloc over Europe’s higher tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles.

在特朗普于4月2日宣布加征关税后，中国商务部表示，已同意就欧洲对中国产电动汽车征收更高关税一事与欧盟重启谈判。

When asked about that announcement, European officials struck a more muted tone. Olof Gill, an E.U. spokesman for trade, said officials had agreed to “continue discussions” on electric vehicle supply chains and take a “fresh look” at pricing.

当被问及对这一声明的看法时，欧洲官员的表态较为谨慎。欧盟贸易发言人奥洛夫·吉尔表示，官员们已同意就电动汽车供应链展开“继续讨论”，并“重新审视”定价问题。

China’s push has at times been more overt. The Mission of China to the European Union has run a series of sponsored articles on the website Euractiv, a prominent source in Brussels policy circles. The articles focus on how China and Europe might draw closer together. “With a hurricane blowing through Washington, China is looking more like a strategic partner for Europe,” one declared.

中国的努力有时更为公开。中国驻欧盟使团在布鲁塞尔政策圈知名网站Euractiv上发表了一系列赞助文章。这些文章的重点是中国和欧洲如何拉近关系。“随着一场飓风席卷华盛顿，中国看起来更像是欧洲的战略伙伴，”其中一篇文章宣称。

For now, the European Union has made little show of embracing that — instead pushing China to reach a deal with the United States, hoping to avoid the fallout if it fails to do so.

目前，欧盟几乎没有表现出对这种观点的认同，而是敦促中国与美国达成协议，并希望避免中美未能达成协议带来的后果。

An E.U.-China summit is set to take place this year, potentially in the second half of July.

中欧峰会定于今年举行，时间可能在7月下半月。

“I think basically Europe is just hoping to make it into summer with everything intact, more or less, and to not have the economy crashed,” Ms. Fix said. “To sort of land the plane until the summer, and then to prepare for what comes next.”

“我认为，基本上欧洲只是希望在进入夏季时，一切都能大致保持完好，不要让经济崩溃，”菲克斯说。“让经济大局在夏天之前维持稳定，然后为接下来的事情做准备。”