President Trump’s tariffs have been good for China’s economic growth. At least they were over the first three months of the year, as the country’s factories raced to ship exports ahead of the trade restrictions.

特朗普总统的关税政策有利于中国的经济增长。至少今年前三个月是这样，因为中国工厂要赶在贸易限制之前将货物发运出口。

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported on Wednesday that the country’s gross domestic product grew 1.2 percent from the last three months of 2024. If that pace continues, the Chinese economy will expand at an annual rate of 4.9 percent.

中国国家统计局周三公布，中国的国内生产总值比2024年第四季度增长了1.2%。如果这一速度继续下去，中国经济的年增长率将达到4.9%。

But whether China can maintain that growth is shrouded in uncertainty.

但中国能否保持这样的增长还充满不确定性。

Pinned down by tariffs that threaten to freeze trade with its biggest customer, China’s economy is facing one of its greatest challenges in years.

由于关税可能冻结与其最大客户的贸易，中国经济正面临多年来最大的挑战之一。

Growth in the early months of this year was propelled by rapidly rising exports and the manufacturing investment and production necessary to support those exports. Sales of electric cars were also strong thanks to government subsidies for buyers.

今年前几个月的增长是由出口的迅速增长以及支持这些出口所需的制造业投资和生产推动的。由于政府对购买者的补贴，电动汽车的销售也很强劲。

Then on April 2, Mr. Trump started escalating tariffs, which reached an extraordinary 145 percent for more than half of China’s exports to the United States.

然后，在4月2日，特朗普开始提高关税，中国对美国出口的一半以上商品的关税达到了惊人的145%。

Mr. Trump’s first two rounds of tariffs on Chinese goods, 10 percent in February and again in March, had little immediate effect on exports. China’s overall exports in March rose 12.4 percent in dollar terms from a year earlier, as some exporters appeared to rush shipments to docks before tariffs could go even higher.

特朗普对中国商品的前两轮关税（2月加征10%，3月又加征10%），对出口几乎没有直接影响。以美元计算，中国3月的整体出口较上年同期增长12.4%，因为一些出口商似乎在关税可能进一步提高之前加快了出货速度。

But the tariff increases this month are likely to have a substantial effect on China’s exports going forward. Mr. Trump also placed, and a week later paused, heavy import taxes on Vietnam, Cambodia and other countries that assemble Chinese components for shipment to the United States. Those countries still face a 10 percent base-line tariff that applies to nearly all U.S. trading partners.

但本月的关税上调可能对中国未来的出口产生重大影响。特朗普还对越南、柬埔寨和其他组装中国零部件运往美国的国家征收了高额进口税，一周后又暂停了征收。这些国家仍然面临着适用于几乎所有美国贸易伙伴的10%的基准关税。

Some factories in southern China have already suspended operations since the start of April as American tariffs have reached prohibitive levels. That has raised concerns about whether unemployment may rise.

自4月初以来，由于美国的关税达到了令人望而却步的水平，中国南方的一些工厂已经暂停运营。这引发了人们对失业率是否会上升的担忧。

Chinese officials and economists agree that the best way to strengthen the economy would be to increase domestic consumer spending. That would make the economy less dependent on foreign markets. Many countries, and not just the United States, are becoming concerned about China’s tsunami of exports from recently built factories and are raising tariffs in response.

中国官员和经济学家一致认为，加强经济的最佳途径是增加国内消费支出。这将减少经济对国外市场的依赖。许多国家，不仅仅是美国，都开始担心中国新建工厂的出口海啸，并且正在提高关税作为回应。

China’s leaders have vowed to take big steps to bolster consumers. They have adopted some measures, notably by providing subsidies for households to buy manufactured products ranging from rice cookers to electric cars.

中国领导人誓言要采取重大措施提振消费者。他们已经采取了一些措施，特别是为家庭购买从电饭煲到电动汽车等制成品提供补贴。

China’s National Bureau of Statistics said the country’s economic output in the first three months of this year was 5.4 percent higher than it was a year earlier.

中国国家统计局表示，今年前三个月的经济产出比去年同期增长了5.4%。

Many economists expect more policies to be adopted to offset the effects of the tariff war.

许多经济学家预计会有更多的政策来抵消关税战的影响。

“The tariffs are going to cause a headwind for economic growth, but the policymakers are going to find a way to make up for this export setback,” said Zhu Ning, deputy dean at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance.

上海高级金融学院副院长朱宁表示：“关税将对经济增长造成不利影响，但政策制定者将找到弥补出口受挫的方法。”

China’s central bank has allowed the country’s currency, the renminbi, to decline very slowly against the dollar. It has weakened about 1 percent since mid-March, but is still little different from where it was a week before Mr. Trump took office in January.

中国央行在允许人民币对美元缓慢贬值。自3月中旬以来已经降了约1%，但与特朗普1月就职前一周的水平仍然相差无几。

A weaker currency could make China’s exports more competitive in foreign markets by reducing their relative cost. But any gradual decline is likely to be too small to make a difference against tariffs that have raised the cost of trade by more than 100 percent. And a sharp devaluation could trigger financial instability by prompting Chinese households to pull their money out of banks and try to send it overseas.

人民币贬值可以降低中国出口产品的相对成本，从而使其在国外市场上更具竞争力。但是，任何渐进的下降都可能太小，不足以抵消已使贸易成本增加100%以上的关税。人民币大幅贬值可能引发金融不稳定，促使中国家庭将资金从银行取出，并试图将其转移到海外。

China’s consumers are wary of spending more. Much of the middle class and the affluent have lost money in the country’s housing market crash. Apartment prices have fallen as much as 40 percent since 2021 — an erasure of wealth that exceeds the American housing market crisis nearly two decades ago. Chinese families typically put up to 80 percent of their savings in real estate, for lack of other ways to build wealth. The country’s stock market is small and speculative, while the bond market is mainly for institutional investors.

中国消费者对增加消费持谨慎态度。该国的房地产市场崩溃给许多中产阶级和富人造成损失。自2021年以来，公寓价格下跌了40%——财富的减少超过了近20年前美国房地产市场危机时的水平。由于缺乏其他积累财富的途径，中国家庭通常会将高达80%的储蓄投入房地产。该国的股票市场规模较小，具有投机性，而债券市场主要面向机构投资者。

Frugality now characterizes almost every spending decision by Chinese families, even grocery purchases.

如今，中国家庭几乎每一项消费决定都以节俭为特征，甚至包括购买食品杂货。

“People are reluctant to spend, so fewer people purchase pork,” Xie Zhengrong, a butcher, said as he sat on a stool in a covered market in Ganzhou, a town in south-central China. Some customers used to buy a couple of pounds of pork at a time, but now buy as little as a quarter of a pound, he said.

“不舍得花，买肉就会少一些，”在中国中南部城市赣州的一个露天市场里，肉贩谢正荣（音）坐在凳子上说。他说，一些顾客过去一次买几斤猪肉，但现在只买几两。

Construction and other real estate activity had represented as much as a quarter of China’s economic output before the housing meltdown, but has stalled as demand for new apartments has dried up.

在房地产市场崩溃之前，建筑和其他房地产活动曾占中国经济产出的四分之一之多，但随着对新公寓的需求枯竭，这些活动已陷入停滞。

Yu Hongqiang, a construction worker who migrated from the country’s interior for jobs in Guangzhou, the commercial hub of southeastern China, said the tariffs did not affect him directly because all the steel in his industry came from Chinese mills. But he was still worried.

建筑工人余宏强（音）从中国内陆省份来到东南部商业中心广州找工作。他说，关税对他没有直接影响，因为他所在行业的所有钢材都来自中国的钢厂。但他还是很担心。

“We have concerns, but there is nothing we can do,” he said. “At worst, if there’s no work, I will just go home.”

“我们有担忧也没办法，毕竟是老百姓，”他说。“大不了没活干就回家。”