President Trump’s long-promised trade war with China got going in earnest only last week, and he’s already botched it.

特朗普总统承诺已久的对华贸易战上周才正式打响，但他已经搞砸了。

Mr. Trump and his sycophants brag about his deal-making artistry. So they are presumably familiar with some of the basic principles of business negotiations: Have a clear and attainable goal, know your adversary’s pain points (and don’t reveal your own), and make sure you don’t box them in so aggressively that they have no choice but to dig in their heels and retaliate.

特朗普和他的马屁精们吹嘘他交易的艺术。因此，他们大概熟悉一些商业谈判的基本原则：有一个明确的可实现目标，了解对手的痛点（并且不要暴露自己的痛点），确保不要咄咄逼人地把对手逼入绝境、搞得他们别无选择，除了坚决对抗和报复之外别无选择。

Mr. Trump seems to have forgotten these things. His ill-conceived and amateurishly executed tariff war with China has now spiraled out of control, threatening world trade and badly damaging America’s global image. And it is far from certain that he will prevail.

特朗普似乎忘记了这些事。他对中国的关税战考虑不周，执行得很业余，现在已经失控，威胁到世界贸易，严重损害了美国的全球形象。而且现在还远不能确定他最终会取得胜利。

Mr. Trump’s main problem is that he and his team evidently — and wrongly — assumed China was so desperate to protect its exports to the United States that it would simply bend to his will.

特朗普的主要问题在于，他和他的团队显然（而且是错误地）认为，中国急于保护其对美出口，肯定会顺从他的意愿。

China exports more to the United States than to any other country — $438 billion worth in 2024. The staggering tariffs that Mr. Trump has imposed and that Beijing has matched in retaliation will hurt, coming at a time of weak Chinese consumer demand and investment and a struggling real estate market. But China is in some respects better prepared today to hold its ground than it was during Mr. Trump’s first term.

中国对美国的出口比其他任何国家都多，2024年达到4380亿美元。在当前中国国内消费需求疲软、投资乏力、房地产市场陷入困境之际，特朗普征收的惊人关税以及北京相应的报复措施将会造成伤害。但与特朗普第一个任期相比，中国如今在某些方面已经做好了更充分的准备来坚守阵地。

After years of trade tension, tariffs and general decoupling, China is not as economically tied to the United States as before. Many American companies have reduced their presence in China by shifting manufacturing and sourcing to other countries. In 2017, before Mr. Trump began imposing tariffs, 21.6 percent of goods imported into the United States came from China. That fell to 13.4 percent last year. Some of that may be because of the rerouting of Chinese products and components through third countries before they reach the United States, a loophole that the Trump administration is looking to close.

经过多年的贸易紧张局势、关税和普遍脱钩，中国与美国的经济联系已经不像从前那样紧密。许多美国公司都将制造和采购转移到其他国家，减少了在中国的业务。2017年，在特朗普开始征收关税之前，美国进口的商品中有21.6%来自中国。去年，这一比例降至13.4%。部分原因可能是中国产品和零部件在到达美国之前改道第三国，这是特朗普政府希望堵上的一个漏洞。

But China has been diversifying its export markets to reduce its dependence on the United States: The value of direct Chinese exports to the United States last year was roughly the same as a decade ago; its exports to the European Union, meanwhile, soared in that period. China also has reduced its overall reliance on trade: Exports as a percentage of China’s gross domestic product declined from 36 percent in 2006 to 19.7 percent in 2023, according to World Bank data.

但中国一直在使出口市场多元化，以减少对美国的依赖：去年中国对美国的直接出口价值与十年前大致相当；与此同时，中国对欧盟的出口在此期间大幅增长。中国也降低了对贸易的总体依赖：根据世界银行的数据，出口占中国国内生产总值的比例从2006年的36%下降到2023年的19.7%。

China under President Xi Jinping has spent years preparing for this expected trade confrontation with the United States, through its messaging at home and by prioritizing technological self-sufficiency, economic security and industrial retooling. In recent months it has taken additional steps to strengthen the economy and promote domestic consumption and is once again embracing China’s leading private sector entrepreneurs, whose dynamism and prominence faded in recent years as the government pursued more state-led industrial development.

习近平主席领导下的中国多年来一直在为与美国的贸易对抗做准备，一方面加强国内的舆论引导，一方面将技术自给自足、经济安全和产业升级居于优先位置。近几个月来，中国采取了进一步措施来提振经济、促进国内消费，并再次重视国内领军的民营企业家——近年来，随着政府更多地追求国家主导的产业发展，这些企业家的活跃程度和知名度有所下降。

So far, it is Mr. Trump who has blinked. Last week he declared a 90-day pause in the steep “reciprocal” tariffs he imposed on other countries after they sparked fears of a recession, crashed global financial markets and caused American business titans to publicly question the president’s approach. His admission that he backed off because investors were getting “yippy” was unwise, showing that he might waver again if the standoff with China persists.

到目前为止，先退缩的是特朗普。上周，他宣布将对其他国家征收的高额“对等”关税暂停90天，此前这些关税引发了对经济衰退的担忧，导致全球金融市场暴跌，以及美国商业巨头公开质疑总统的做法。他承认自己因为投资者“急躁”而退缩，这是不明智的做法，这表明如果与中国的对峙持续下去，他可能会再次动摇。

The Chinese government has a range of policy tools it can wield to ease the pain of a prolonged trade war, including billions of dollars’ worth of state funds that can be quickly pumped into China’s capital markets. But Mr. Trump’s negotiating position will weaken by the day as U.S. consumers feel the sting of rising inflation, investors watch their stock portfolios suffer and chief executives see the business outlook darken.

中国政府有一系列政策工具可以用来缓解长期贸易战的痛苦，其中包括价值数以十亿美元计的国家资金，这些资金可以迅速注入中国的资本市场。但随着美国消费者感受到通胀上升的刺痛，投资者看到自己的股票投资蒙受损失，首席执行官们看到商业前景变得黯淡，特朗普的谈判地位将日益削弱。

China’s leaders are simply not as vulnerable to domestic pressure as Mr. Trump. This has deep historical, cultural and social roots. Recurring periods of hardship in Chinese history have embedded in the nation’s psyche a capacity for endurance and fortitude. The phrase for this is “chi ku,” or to “eat bitterness.” Younger Chinese today are accustomed to more comfortable consumer lives than previous generations, but chi ku still runs strong.

中国领导人显然不像特朗普那样容易受到国内压力的影响。这有很深的历史、文化和社会根源。中国历史上反复出现的艰难时期，在这个民族的心灵中嵌入了一种忍耐和坚韧的能力。有个词叫做“吃苦”，如今的中国年轻人已经习惯了比前几代人更舒适的消费生活，但吃苦的能力仍然很强。

My grandparents’ generation was hardened by war, famine and social turmoil — memories that have been passed down and remain fresh for most Chinese today. I was born in China in the 1990s, before the country reached its current levels of prosperity. As a child, I lived in a cramped 200-square-foot single-room apartment with my parents; kitchen and restroom areas were shared with more than 20 other households. Our family was considered better off than most.

我祖父母那一代经历了战争、饥荒和社会动荡而变得坚强——这些记忆一直流传下来，对今天的大多数中国人来说仍然记忆犹新。我出生于上世纪90年代的中国，当时中国还没有达到目前的繁荣水平。小时候，我和父母住在一个狭窄的、大约只有20平米的单间公寓里；与其他20多个家庭共用厨卫。我们家还被认为比大多数家庭的条件要好。

Instead of voicing worry, most Chinese I know are simply annoyed at the United States and fully support the Chinese leadership’s decision to dig in. In the public eye, Mr. Trump’s assault has only validated the years of official warnings that China needed to prepare for this.

我认识的大多数中国人并没有表示担忧，只是对美国感到恼火，并且完全支持中国领导人坚持下去的决定。在公众眼中，特朗普的攻击只是证实了官方多年来的警告——中国需要为此做好准备。

Both China and the United States are trying to change their economic models. China produces too much and wants to shift toward more consumption; the United States consumes too much and wants to produce more. Both transitions are tricky. But it is easier for the Chinese, conditioned to endure hardship, to shift toward producing less and consuming more than for a consumer-centric economy like the United States to move the other way.

中国和美国都在努力改变各自的经济模式。中国生产太多，希望转向更多消费；美国消费太多，想要更多生产。这两种转变都很棘手。但对于习惯于吃苦的中国人来说，转向减少生产、增加消费，要比美国这样以消费为中心的经济体向相反方向转变容易得多。

Mr. Trump says Beijing “played it wrong” by retaliating against his tariffs. But he gave China no choice; showing weakness only emboldens a bully like him. A severe downturn in global demand caused by his tariffs would undoubtedly affect the Chinese economy. But he shouldn’t wait around for a call from Beijing pleading for a deal. Mr. Xi can afford to sit tight and blame any economic hardship on Mr. Trump.

特朗普表示，北京对他的关税进行报复是“错误的”。但他让中国别无选择；示弱只会给他这样的恶霸壮胆。他的关税导致的全球需求严重下滑无疑会影响中国经济。但他不应该坐等北京打来请求达成协议的电话。习近平可以稳坐钓鱼台，把任何经济困难都归咎于特朗普。

Mr. Trump’s boorish, erratic approach has brought him no closer to achieving his unclear trade goals with China. What it has done is raise the risk of a world recession and make China appear like the more stable and reliable economic partner.

特朗普粗鲁、不稳定的做法没有让他更接近实现他那些模糊不清的对华贸易目标。他的做法增加了世界经济衰退的风险，并使中国看起来像一个更稳定、更可靠的经济伙伴。

So much for the art of the deal.

所谓交易的艺术，不过如此。