As Washington and Beijing wage an intensifying trade war, Japan is caught in the middle of the fight.

随着华盛顿和北京的贸易战愈演愈烈，日本被夹在了中间。

Japan sells a large amount of cars to the United States, and computer chips and chip-making equipment to China. For the past two decades, the United States and China have alternated as the top destination for Japanese exports. No other country comes close.

日本向美国出口大量汽车，向中国出口大量计算机芯片和芯片制造设备。在过去的二十年里，美中两国始终交替占据日本出口目的地榜首，把其他国家远远甩在后面。

Now, as President Trump tries to rally U.S. trade partners against China, and Beijing threatens countries that would heed that call, Japan faces a dilemma. Spurning either side would risk deeply unsettling its economy.

现在，特朗普总统试图拉拢美国贸易伙伴反对中国，而中国政府则威胁那些响应号召的国家，日本面临着进退两难的境地。拒绝任何一方都有可能给本国经济带来严重影响。

Japan was chosen by the Trump administration for its first face-to-face tariff talks, held last week. Mr. Trump is maintaining the threat of “reciprocal tariffs” that he imposed on dozens of countries and then paused until early July. In Japan’s case, that tariff is 24 percent, which government officials have said would cause a crisis for the country’s economy.

日本被特朗普政府选中参加上周的首次面对面关税谈判。特朗普一直威胁要对数十个国家征收“对等关税”，后又将这一举措推迟到7月初。就日本而言，关税将达到24%，政府官员表示，这将给该国经济带来危机。

This is not an entirely unfamiliar spot for Japan, which has been caught between the two economic giants as trade tensions between them have simmered over the past decade. Japan has walked a delicate path — taking steps to hedge its dependence on China while distancing itself from the politics of Washington.

这对日本来说并非完全陌生的问题。在过去十年中，随着两大经济巨头之间贸易紧张局势的加剧，日本一直被夹在中间。日本走的是一条微妙的道路——一方面采取措施减少对中国的依赖，另一方面与华盛顿的政治保持距离。

Trade experts suggested that attempts to push Japan to rapidly or forcefully curtail its economic links with China would face significant resistance in Tokyo.

贸易专家认为，推动日本迅速或强力削减与中国经济联系的尝试，将在东京面临巨大阻力。

Japan can offer the Trump administration a number of conciliatory measures, like buying more American rice and allowing cars that pass American standards to drive on Japanese roads, said Masahiko Hosokawa, a professor at Meisei University and former senior official at Japan’s trade ministry.

日本可以向特朗普政府提供一些和解措施，比如购买更多美国大米，允许通过美国标准的汽车在日本道路上行驶，明星大学教授、日本经济产业省前高级官员细川昌说。

“Decoupling with China,” he said, “is not a possibility."

“与中国脱钩，”他说，“是不可能的。”

In Japan, as in America, consumers buy large amounts of Chinese goods and businesses rely heavily on Chinese supply chains, Mr. Hosokawa said. That means that Japan can offer the United States little, if anything, in the near term that would serve to isolate China, he said.

细川说，日本跟美国一样，消费者购买大量的中国商品，企业严重依赖中国的供应链。他说，这意味着短期内日本几乎无法采取任何措施来帮助美国孤立中国。

Recently, Trump administration officials, including Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, have signaled that they aim to reach agreements with trading partners that align with U.S. policies designed to counter China and its so-called economic coercion. Mr. Bessent leads U.S. tariff negotiations with Japan.

最近，包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特在内的特朗普政府官员表示，他们的目标是与贸易伙伴达成符合美国政策的协议，这些政策旨在对抗中国及其所谓的“经济胁迫”。贝森特负责与日本进行关税谈判。

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特负责与日本的关税谈判。

Officials in China have taken notice of the Trump administration’s maneuvering. On Monday, the Chinese government warned other countries against curbing trade with China to win a reprieve from U.S. tariffs, promising to retaliate against countries that did so.

中国官员已经注意到特朗普政府的策略。周一，中国政府警告其他国家，不要为了缓和美国关税而限制与中国的贸易，并承诺将对这样做的国家进行报复。

“Seeking so-called exemptions by harming the interests of others for one’s own selfish and shortsighted gains is like negotiating with a tiger for its skin,” the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said. “In the end, it will only lead to a lose-lose situation.”

“为一己一时私利，以损害别人利益来寻求所谓豁免是与虎谋皮，”中国商务部表示。“最终只能是两头落空，损人不利己。”

Whether Japan can maintain trade relations with the United States and China as they raise tariffs on each other to well over 100 percent carries significant implications for its economy, the world’s fourth largest.

作为世界第四大经济体，日本能否在美国和中国相互提高关税超过100%的情况下维持与它们的贸易关系，将对日本经济产生重大影响。

Japanese firms face increasing urgency to expand overseas, driven by the nation’s shrinking population. That makes finding alternatives to China difficult. On the other hand, economists warn that the 24 percent tariff threatened by the United States would have devastating consequences for Japan’s economic growth and domestic industries.

由于日本人口不断减少，日本企业迫切需要向海外市场扩张。这使得寻找中国意外的替代市场变得困难。另一方面，经济学家警告说，美国威胁要征收的24%的关税，将对日本的经济增长和国内产业造成毁灭性的后果。

Japan began hedging its dependence on China in 2010, after Beijing imposed an embargo on exports of crucial rare earth metals to Japan to seek concessions in a territorial dispute. In response, Japan made diversifying its supply chains for materials and other critical goods a central tenet of its policy objectives.

日本开始规避对中国的依赖始于2010年，当时中国政府为寻求日本在领土争端中做出让步，对出口到日本的关键稀土金属实施禁运。作为回应，日本将原材料和其他关键商品的供应链多样化作为其政策目标的核心原则。

In 2020, Japan’s government offered up billions of dollars of subsidies to prod Japanese manufacturers to move production from China to Southeast Asia or to Japan. Japanese policymakers insisted that their efforts were not aimed at any particular country.

2020年，日本政府提供了数十亿美元的补贴，鼓励日本制造商将生产从中国转移到东南亚或日本。日本政策制定者坚称，他们的努力并不针对任何特定国家。

During the Biden administration, Japanese companies invested significantly in the United States as part of Washington’s “friendshoring” initiative, which aimed to reorient supply chains to so-called friendly countries.

在拜登执政期间，作为华盛顿“友岸外包”倡议的一部分，日本公司在美国进行了大量投资，该倡议旨在将供应链重新定位到所谓的友好国家。

But even as the United States imposed steep tariffs on Chinese products like electric vehicles, Japanese officials took a different approach, offering Chinese automakers the same subsidies available to all other producers of battery-powered cars.

但是，就在美国对电动汽车等中国产品征收高额关税的时候，日本官员却采取了不同的做法，向中国汽车制造商提供与其他所有电池驱动汽车生产商相同的补贴。

Tsuyoshi Kawase, a professor of international economic law at Sophia University in Tokyo and a former economy ministry official, said Japan has attempted to take a long-term approach to China to avoid conflict. Japan’s economy is deeply integrated with both the United States and China, and “we do not have the option of putting everything in a single basket,” Mr. Kawase said.

东京上智大学国际经济法教授、前经济产业省官员川濑刚志表示，日本一直试图对中国采取长期策略，以避免冲突。日本经济与美国和中国都深度融合，“我们不能把所有东西都放在一个篮子里，”川濑说。

Last month, top diplomats from China, Japan and South Korea met in Tokyo and pledged to promote cooperation among their countries. A social media account affiliated with Chinese state media said the countries had agreed to jointly respond to U.S. tariffs. South Korea said the message was exaggerated. Tokyo said no such discussion had taken place.

上个月，中国、日本和韩国的高级外交官在东京会晤，承诺促进三国之间的合作。中国官方媒体的一个社交媒体账户称，三国已同意共同应对美国的关税。韩国表示，这一信息被夸大了。东京表示，没有进行过此类讨论。