President Trump has made clear his intent to smash the reigning global economic order. And in 100 days, he has made remarkable progress in accomplishing that goal.

特朗普总统明确表示，他有意打破现有的全球经济秩序。在执政百日里，他在实现这一目标方面取得了显著进展。

Mr. Trump has provoked a trade war, scrapped treaties and suggested that Washington might not defend Europe. He is also dismantling the governmental infrastructure that has provided the know-how and experience.

特朗普挑起了一场贸易战，废除了一些条约，并暗示华盛顿可能不会保卫欧洲。他同时还在逐步瓦解那些提供专业知识和经验储备的政府机构。

The changes have been deep. But the world is still churning. Midterm elections in two years could erode the Republican majority in Congress. And Mr. Trump’s reign is constitutionally mandated to end in four years. Could the next president come in and undo what the Trump administration has done?

这些变化的影响是深远的。但世界仍在动荡。两年后的中期选举可能会削弱共和党在国会的多数地位。宪法规定，特朗普的任期将在四年后结束。下一任总统会上台推翻特朗普政府的所作所为吗？

As Cardinal Michael Czerny, a close aide to Pope Francis, said of the Catholic Church: “There is nothing that we have done over 2,000 years that couldn’t be rolled back.”

正如教宗方济各的亲密助手、枢机主教迈克尔·切尔尼在谈到天主教会时说的那样：“2000多年来，我们所做的一切没有一件事是无法逆转的。”

The same could be said of global geopolitics. Yet even at this early stage, historians and political scientists agree that on some crucial counts, the changes wrought by Mr. Trump may be hard to reverse.

全球地缘政治也是如此。然而，即便在目前这个早期阶段，历史学家和政治学家也一致认为，在一些关键问题上，特朗普带来的变化可能很难逆转。

Like the erosion of trust in the United States, a resource that took generations to build.

比如对美国信任的侵蚀，这种资源是经过了几代人的努力才得以建立起来的。

“The MAGA base and JD Vance will still be around long after Trump’s gone,” said Ian Goldin, professor of globalization and development at the University of Oxford. No matter who occupies the White House next, the conditions that propelled the “Make America Great Again” movement — widening inequality and economic insecurity — remain. For the rest of the world, there is still a worry, he said, that there could be “another Trump in the future.”

牛津大学全球化与发展教授伊恩·戈尔丁表示：“在特朗普下台后，‘让美国恢复伟大荣光’票仓和JD·万斯仍将存在很长时间。”无论下一个入主白宫的是谁，推动“让美国恢复伟大荣光”运动的条件——不断扩大的不平等和经济不安全——依然存在。他说，对于世界其他地区来说，人们仍然担心“未来可能会出现另一个特朗普”。

As a result, allies are working to strike trade partnerships and build security alliances that exclude the United States. The European Union and South American countries recently created one of the world’s largest trade zones.

因此，美国的盟友们正在努力达成贸易伙伴关系，建立将美国排除在外的安全联盟。欧盟和南美国家最近建立了世界上最大的贸易区之一。

The Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, recently proposed building new transportation networks to ease access to global markets outside the United States. Canada is also negotiating to join Europe’s military buildup to reduce its reliance on the United States, while Britain and the European Union are working to finalize a defense pact.

加拿大总理马克·卡尼最近提议，建立新的交通网络，方便进入美国以外的全球市场。加拿大也在就加入欧洲的军事建设进行谈判，以减少对美国的依赖，而英国和欧盟正在努力敲定一项防务协议。

广州的一家制衣厂。习近平试图将中国定位为自由贸易的倡导者和全球领导者。

“The world moves on,” Mr. Goldin said. Supply chains will be rearranged, new partnerships will be struck, and foreign students, researchers and tech talent will find other places to migrate. “The U.S. is not going to quickly restore its economic position,” he said.

“世界在前进，”戈尔丁说。供应链将被重新安排，新的合作伙伴关系将达成，外国学生、研究人员和技术人才将找到其他地方移民。“美国不会很快恢复经济地位，”他说。

“And it’s not just the United States that is so different now,” he added. Mr. Trump is emboldening autocratic leaders around the world, which further chips away at the rules-based system.

“现在不只是美国发生了这么大的变化，”他还说。特朗普正在给世界各地的专制领导人壮胆，这进一步削弱了基于规则的体系。

Second, Mr. Trump’s disdain for international institutions only strengthens the influence of China, the principal target of his attempts to use economic pressure.

其次，特朗普对国际机构的蔑视只会增强中国的影响力，而中国正是他试图通过经济压力加以打击的主要目标。

The administration is creating “immense moments of opportunity for Xi Jinping and China,” said Orville Schell, director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society in New York.

纽约亚洲协会美中关系中心主任夏伟(Orville Schell)说，本届政府正在“为习近平和中国创造巨大的机会”。

China’s top leader, Mr. Xi, is seeking to exploit Mr. Trump’s protectionist turn and chaotic policy reversals to better position Beijing as the defender of free trade and the new leader of the global trading system.

中国最高领导人习近平正在寻求利用特朗普的保护主义转向和混乱的政策逆转，以便更好地将北京定位为自由贸易的捍卫者和全球贸易体系的新领导者。

Mr. Xi’s argument particularly resonates among many emerging economies in Latin America, Asia and Africa. China looks “steady and stable and a picture of equanimity compared to the United States,” said Jonathan Czin, a fellow at the Brookings Institution’s China Center and a former senior China analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency.

习近平的观点尤其在拉美、亚洲和非洲的许多新兴经济体中引起共鸣。布鲁金斯学会中国中心研究员、美国中央情报局前高级中国分析师席恩(Jonathan Czin)说：“与美国相比，（中国）看起来从容稳健，呈现一派祥和的画面。”

Africa is a prime example. Mr. Trump has gutted the U.S. Agency for International Development, which delivered food and health care to the world’s poorest. And the reorganization plan for the State Department has proposed eliminating nearly all diplomatic missions across the continent.

非洲就是一个典型的例子。美国国际开发署曾向世界上最贫穷的人提供食品和医疗服务，特朗普却对该机构大加打击。国务院的重组计划提议取消几乎所有在非洲大陆的外交使团。

By comparison, China has already invested deeply in Africa as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, and its push to control more of the continent’s critical minerals. “It creates a vacuum that allows China to consolidate that position and control over those mining rights,” Mr. Czin said.

相比之下，作为“一带一路”倡议的一部分，中国在非洲进行了大量投资，并努力控制非洲大陆更多的关键矿产。“这造成了一个真空，使中国能够巩固自己的地位，并且控制采矿权，”席恩说。

Mr. Trump’s hostility to allies could also undercut government efforts in recent years to keep advanced technology out of China’s hands. Those previously close relations were crucial in persuading the Netherlands and Japan to halt exports of advanced semiconductor equipment to China.

特朗普对盟友的敌意也可能削弱政府近年来不让先进技术落入中国手中的努力。在说服荷兰和日本停止向中国出口先进半导体设备方面，此前美国与它们之间密切的关系发挥了关键作用。

Antony Hopkins, a history professor at Cambridge University, added that Mr. Trump was forgetting the important role China played as an international investor and buyer of U.S. debt. If China’s access to America’s large consumer market is severely curtailed, “you are courting the possibility of damaging China’s ability to invest in U.S. Treasury bonds, and if you do that, you’re shooting yourself in the foot.”

剑桥大学历史学教授安东尼·霍普金斯补充说，特朗普忘记了中国作为国际投资者和美国债务买家所发挥的重要作用。如果中国进入美国庞大的消费市场受到严重限制，“你就有可能损害中国投资美国国债的能力，如果你这样做，你就是搬起石头砸自己的脚。”

Another region caught between the United States and China is Southeast Asia. But as Mr. Trump threatened, and then paused until early July, potentially ruinous tariffs on the export-oriented economies of countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia, China gained an opportunity to strengthen ties.

另一个夹在美中之间的地区是东南亚。但是，随着特朗普威胁要对越南、孟加拉国和印度尼西亚等出口导向型经济体征收可能具有破坏性的关税，而后又将这一举措推迟到7月初，中国获得了加强与这些国家关系的机会。

柬埔寨金边的一家货币兑换和珠宝店。美国关税带来的不确定性给了北京一个加强与东南亚联系的机会。

Finally, the evisceration of the federal government’s research and data collection capabilities risks undermining America’s scientific excellence and competitive edge. According to the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics, the federal government finances roughly 40 percent of the long-term basic research that undergirds the country’s technological and scientific breakthroughs.

最后，联邦政府研究和数据收集能力的削弱，可能会损害美国在科学领域的卓越地位和竞争优势。根据国家科学与工程统计中心的数据，联邦政府资助了大约40%的长期基础研究，这些研究支撑着美国的科技突破。

Sometimes a signature event like the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 serves as an endpoint to an era. But it is not necessarily always clear in real time if stress on a system is so extreme that it won’t be able to snap back.

有时，像1989年柏林墙倒塌这样的标志性事件是一个时代的终点。但是，一个系统所承受的压力是否已经到了无法挽回的地步，这一点并不一定总能实时显现出来。

Many people thought the “Nixon shock” represented such a break, David Ekbladh, a history professor at Tufts University, said. In 1971 President Richard M. Nixon terminated the system of fixed exchange rates and severed the value of the U.S. dollar from gold.

塔夫茨大学历史学教授戴维·埃克布拉德说，许多人认为“尼克松冲击”就代表了这样一种突破。1971年，尼克松总统终止了固定汇率制度，并切断了美元与黄金的联系。

The author William Greider called it the “precise date on which America’s singular dominance” of the global economy ended. Chaos enveloped global markets, and America’s allies worried that the president’s unilateral decision undermined the postwar cooperative system. Still, the larger economic order held.

作家威廉·格雷德称这是美国在全球经济中“独一无二的主导地位”宣告终结的“确切日期”。全球市场陷入混乱，美国的盟友担心总统的单边决定破坏了战后的合作体系。尽管如此，更大的经济秩序仍然得以维持。

“The game changed, but it wasn’t a revolution,” Mr. Ekbladh said. Negotiations to open markets continued, America’s alliances remained intact and the Group of 10 negotiated a new arrangement. Respect internationally for the rule of law prevailed, and the United States was still universally seen as the leader of the free world.

“游戏变了，但那不是革命，”埃克布拉德说。开放市场的谈判仍在继续，美国的同盟关系保持不变，10国集团通过谈判达成了一项新的安排。国际社会普遍尊重法治，美国仍被普遍视为自由世界的领袖。

The question for the United States now is how deep support is for the system that was, Mr. Ekbladh said. These currents of deep discontent with the global economy have been bubbling up for a long time, and many people voted for Mr. Trump because of his promise to upend the system. “Do the American people want this to go away?”

埃克布拉德说，美国现在面临的问题是，民众对过去的体制的支持究竟有多深。对全球经济的强烈不满情绪已经酝酿了很长时间，许多人投票给特朗普是因为他承诺要颠覆现行制度。“美国人民希望这一切消失吗？”