We have the first New York Times/Siena College poll since the election, and almost everyone will probably agree on this much: The findings are not good for President Trump.

我们进行了自大选以来首次的《纽约时报》和锡耶纳学院联合民意调查，可能几乎每个人都会同意：调查结果对特朗普总统不利。

You would be hard pressed to find a single “good” number for Mr. Trump in the survey.

这项调查中很难找到一个对特朗普有利的“好”数字。

His job approval rating is just 42 percent, and voters disapproved of his handling of every issue tested in the survey, including longstanding strengths like immigration and the economy.

他的工作满意度只有42%，选民不赞成他对调查中提出的所有问题的处理，包括移民和经济等长期被视为他有优势的领域。

Only 43 percent view him favorably, down from 48 percent in the final Times/Siena poll before the election and the lowest since his attempted assassination last July.

只有43%的人看好他，低于选举前最后一次时报/锡耶纳民调的48%，这也是自去年7月他遇刺未遂以来的最低水平。

[See all the latest Trump approval polls in our polling tracker.]

[在我们的民意调查追踪器中查看所有最新的特朗普支持率调查。]

On question after question, voters say he’s going too far. Sixty-six percent of them say “chaotic” describes Mr. Trump’s second term well; 59 percent say “scary” fits at least somewhat well.

选民们在一个又一个问题上说他做得太过分了。66%的人表示，“混乱”一词很好地描述了特朗普的第二任期；59%的人说“可怕”至少在某种程度上是合适的。

If his numbers aren’t good, just how bad are they?

说他的数据不好，但到底糟到什么程度呢？

For as long as he’s been a politician, Mr. Trump’s poll numbers could be subject to interpretation. On one hand, they’ve usually been weak by traditional standards. On the other, they could be seen as a sign of resilience, as many other politicians would have been doomed if they had acted like him. He did win the presidency twice, after all.

只要特朗普还是一位政治人士，他的民调数字就可以被各种解读。一方面，按照传统标准，这些通常来说是不堪的数字。另一方面，它们也可以被视为韧性的表现，因为其他许多政治人士如果有像他那样的表现将万劫不复。他毕竟两次赢得总统大选。

This time around, the glass is probably closer to half empty than half full for Mr. Trump. Here are four ways to look at it.

这一次，对特朗普来说，杯子可能更接近半空，而不是半满。这里有四种看待民调数据的方式。

Perspective 1: Compared with other presidents

角度一：与其他总统相比

Imagine that you didn’t know anything about this president or his actions so far. You knew only that this is a president with a 42 percent job approval rating after almost 100 days.

想象一下，到目前为止，你对这位总统或他的行为一无所知。你只知道，这位上任近100天的总统工作满意度为42%。

If that’s all you knew, you would have to say this presidency was off to a disastrous start.

如果这就是你所知道的一切，你肯定会说，这届总统任期的开局是灾难性的。

For most presidents, the first 100 days are as good as it gets. It’s hard to remember now, but at this time four years ago Joe Biden was still being compared to F.D.R. Even the doomed presidents — think Jimmy Carter’s first term or George W. Bush’s second — still had positive approval ratings at this stage.

对大多数总统来说，前100天是最好的时光。现在已经很难想起，但在四年前的这个时候，拜登还被比作罗斯福。即使是那些注定要失败的总统——想想吉米·卡特的第一个任期或乔治·W·布什的第二个任期——在这个阶段仍然有积极的支持率。

It’s not easy to burn this much good will so fast, and it doesn’t usually get any easier from here.

这么快就败掉这么多的好感是不容易的，而且再往后通常也不会变得更容易了。

Perspective 2: Compared with January expectations

角度二：与1月的预期相比

Bring yourself back to the beginning of the year, when Mr. Trump was basking in victory, when there was talk of a rightward cultural “vibe shift” or even an incipient realignment.

回到今年年初，当时特朗普还沉浸在胜利的喜悦中，很多人在说这是文化右倾的“风向”转变，甚至是一场开天辟地的“大重组”。

From this perspective, Mr. Trump’s first 100 days would count as a political disappointment — at best.

从这个角度来看，特朗普上任的前100天充其量只能算是一次政治上的失望。

While he won only narrowly, the election was still a decisive victory for populist conservative politics over an exhausted liberalism. There were countless opportunities for him to push major initiatives with significant public support, on issues like immigration, crime, energy, “woke” or the economy. Back in January, it seemed possible for Mr. Trump to solidify a coalition behind these issues.

虽然只是以微弱优势获胜，但这次选举仍然是民粹主义保守政治对精疲力竭的自由主义的决定性胜利。在移民、犯罪、能源、“觉醒”或经济等问题上，他有无数机会推动获得大量公众支持的重大举措。今年1月，特朗普似乎有可能在这些问题上巩固一个联盟。

Not anymore. Not only has he forfeited whatever political opportunity existed at the beginning of his term, but he has also managed to turn his usual strengths into liabilities. Voters no longer say his policies will help them personally anymore, one of the central reasons for his victory just six months ago.

现在已经不行了。他不仅丧失了任期开始时存在的任何政治机会，而且将自己一贯的优势居然也变成了劣势。选民们不再认为他的政策会对他们个人有帮助，而对选民个人有帮助原本是他六个月前获胜的主要原因之一。

Immigration is perhaps the most obvious example. Voters still support deporting illegal immigrants, 54-42, according to the poll. In a way, this is what Mr. Trump was elected to do, and he’s been doing it. Yet voters nonetheless disapprove of his handling of immigration because the excesses of his policy have managed to alienate many voters who would otherwise be on his side.

移民问题也许是最明显的例子。民调显示，选民仍以54比42的比例支持驱逐非法移民。在某种程度上，这正是他们选特朗普的目的，而特朗普也一直在这么做。尽管如此，选民们还是不赞成他处理移民问题的方式，因为他的过度政策已经疏远了许多本来会站在他一边的选民。

In this respect, the usual optimistic case for Mr. Trump is much weaker than it has been for most of the last eight years. While his numbers have typically been weak, there hasn’t usually been any promise that he could have been anything more. This time, there was a lost opportunity.

从这方面看，那些一直以来对特朗普保持乐观看法的理由，现在显得格外站不住脚，处于八年来的最低谷。他的数据通常都很弱，但在过去，人们往往也不会对他多高的期待。而这一次，他是错失了一个机会。

Perspective 3: Looking back on almost 100 days

角度三：回顾这近100天的历程

Mr. Trump’s 100-day agenda hasn’t necessarily gone the way some voters expected. He’s launched a trade war, made sweeping claims of executive power, slashed federal programs and started an all-out campaign against the legal, medical and educational establishments.

特朗普的百日议程并未必符合一些选民的预期。他发动了一场贸易战，大揽行政权力，削减了联邦项目，并发起了一场针对法律、医疗和教育机构的全面运动。

With this context, the decline in his ratings isn’t especially surprising. Public opinion usually shifts against the party trying to enact change, and Mr. Trump has embarked on a radical political program: Thirty-seven percent of Americans perceive him as trying to tear down the economic and political system, and a majority of voters say the changes are “bad.”

在这种背景下，他的支持率下降并不特别令人惊讶。公众舆论通常会转向反对试图实施变革的政党，而特朗普已经开始了一项激进的政治计划：37%的美国人认为他试图摧毁经济和政治体系，大多数选民表示这些变革是“不好的”。

This is where a glass-half-full perspective starts feeling more sensible. Mr. Trump might even take solace in the numbers: Despite all he’s done, his 42 percent approval rating is more or less back to where it’s always been.

所以凡事多看乐观的一面在这种时候显得很有用。特朗普甚至可能从这些数字中得到安慰：尽管他做了这么多事，但他还有42%的支持率，多少回到了一直以来的水平。

But this optimism has limits. Even though Mr. Trump usually seems to emerge out of controversy unscathed, this time he’s clearly taken a hit. There was a political cost. And there isn’t necessarily any reason to assume he’s suffered the full penalty quite yet.

但这种乐观也有局限性。尽管特朗普通常都能毫发无损地走出争议，但这次他显然受到了打击。这是有政治代价的。而且目前还没有任何理由认为他现在受到的惩罚已经是全部。

Perspective 4: Looking ahead to the next 1,365 days

角度四：展望未来1365天

If today’s 42 percent approval rating represented the full fallout from Mr. Trump’s actions, perhaps one could say he held up fairly well.

如果今天42%的满意度代表了特朗普行动的全部后果，也许可以说，他的表现相当不错。

But he is not finished yet; after today, there are 1,365 days remaining in his term. And the major issues dragging his ratings down — like the tariffs or sweeping claims of executive power — aren’t yet in the rearview mirror.

但这还不算完。接下来他的任期还有1365天。而拖累他支持率的主要问题——比如关税或大揽行政权力——还没有结束。

If Mr. Trump is only beginning to feel the political cost of his program, then this poll is full of warning signs. A clear majority of voters say the president has already gone too far — too far toward changing the economic and political system, too far with the tariffs, too far with the spending cuts, too far on immigration enforcement.

如果特朗普只是刚刚开始感受到他的计划所带来的政治成本，那么这项民意调查就充满了警告信号。绝大多数选民表示，总统已经走得太远——在改变经济和政治制度方面走得太远，在关税方面走得太远，在削减开支方面走得太远，在移民执法方面走得太远。

In particular, the poll shows two clear areas where he faces additional risks over the next few months.

尤其值得注意的是，民调显示，在接下来的几个月里，他在两个明显的领域面临着额外的风险。

First, his sweeping claims of executive power. Already, a majority of voters say Mr. Trump is exceeding his powers as president. Just 31 percent of voters approved his handling of the Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia case — his lowest approval rating in the poll — and he would find himself on even weaker footing should he push further. Just 11 percent say he should be able to send U.S. citizens to prison in El Salvador, as he suggested last week. Only 6 percent say he should be able to ignore Supreme Court rulings.

首先是他对行政权力的全面要求。大多数选民表示，特朗普越权了。只有31%的选民支持他对基尔玛·阿曼多·阿布雷戈·加西亚一案的处理，这是他在民调中支持率最低的一项，如果进一步推进，他会发现自己的处境愈发糟糕。只有11%的人表示，他应该能够像上周提议的那样，把美国公民送进萨尔瓦多的监狱。只有6%的人认为他应该能够无视最高法院的裁决。

Second, the economy. While 50 percent of voters already think Mr. Trump has made the economy worse, compared with 21 percent who think he has made it better, only 32 percent of voters say he’s responsible for the biggest challenges facing the U.S. economy. If Mr. Trump’s tariffs single-handedly drag the economy into recession, as many economists expect, there appears to be room for his ratings to slip further.

其次是经济。虽然50%的选民认为特朗普让经济变得更糟——相比之下，21%的选民认为他让经济变得更好——但只有32%的选民认为他应对美国经济面临的最大挑战负责。如果特朗普单凭关税就将经济拖入衰退，正如许多经济学家所预期的那样，那么他的支持率似乎还有进一步下滑的空间。

So far, Mr. Trump’s low ratings don’t pose any serious challenge to his presidency. This is probably the single biggest reason for his supporters to remain optimistic.

到目前为止，特朗普的低支持率并未对他的总统任期构成任何严重挑战。这可能是他的支持者保持乐观的最大原因。

But if his ratings keep falling into the 30s, there would be real risks. The aura of invincibility that’s helped keep his opposition in check would begin to fade. He could face an emboldened judiciary and greater “resistance” from civil society. Even the slightest cracks in his congressional support could make it hard to enact his agenda. If Mr. Trump stays on his current course, there is a chance that the optimistic case will become much harder to sustain.

但是，如果他的支持率持续下降到百分之30几，就会有真正的风险。帮助他控制对手的无敌光环将会开始消退。他可能要面对更有底气的司法系统，以及来自公民社会更大的“阻力”。即使国会对他的支持出现最轻微的裂痕，也会使他的议程难以实施。如果特朗普坚持目前的路线，要想继续对他持乐观态度，会比以前困难很多。