2025年4月29日
In 1941, as President Franklin D. Roosevelt marshaled support for the fight against fascism, his chief antagonists were isolationists at home. “What I seek to convey,” he said at the beginning of an address to Congress, “is the historic truth that the United States as a nation has at all times maintained clear, definite opposition to any attempt to lock us in behind an ancient Chinese wall while the procession of civilization went past.” Roosevelt prevailed, and that victory expanded America’s relationship with the world in ways that remade both.
1941年,当富兰克林·罗斯福总统动员民众支持反法西斯斗争时,反对他的主要是国内的孤立主义者。“我想阐明的,”他在国会演讲的开场说道,“是这样一个历史事实,即美国作为一个国家,始终明确、坚决地反对任何企图在文明进程中将我们锁在古中国城墙之后的企图。”罗斯福成功了,而那场胜利也拓展了美国与世界的关系,给两者都带来全新的面貌。
Eighty-four years later, President Trump is systematically severing America from the globe. This is not simply a shift in foreign policy. It is a divorce so comprehensive that it makes Britain’s exit from the European Union look modest by comparison.
84年过去了,如今特朗普总统正在系统性地切断美国与全球的联系。这不仅是外交政策的转变,更是一场彻底的决裂——相较之下,英国脱欧倒显得不过尔尔。
Consider the breadth of this effort. Allies have been treated like adversaries. The United States has withdrawn from international agreements on fundamental issues like health and climate change. A nation of immigrants now deports people without due process, bans refugees and is trying to end birthright citizenship. Mr. Trump’s tariffs have upended the system of international trade, throwing up new barriers to doing business with every country on Earth. Foreign assistance has largely been terminated. So has support for democracy abroad. Research cuts have rolled back global scientific research and cooperation. The State Department is downsizing. Exchange programs are on the chopping block. Global research institutions like the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Wilson Center have been effectively shut down. And, of course, the United States is building a wall along its southern border.
试看决裂行动的广度:盟友被视若对手。美国接连退出卫生、气候变化等基础议题的国际协议;作为一个移民国家,如今不经正当程序便驱逐外侨、禁止难民入境,甚至试图废除出生公民权。特朗普的关税政策彻底颠覆了国际贸易体系,为美国与全球各国的商业往来筑起新壁垒。对外援助几近终止。对海外民主的支持计划同样搁浅。科研经费的削减导致国际科研合作全面倒退。国务院规模缩水,交流项目岌岌可危。美国和平研究所、威尔逊中心等全球研究机构实际已遭关闭。此外当然还有美国正在南部边境修建的城墙。
Other countries are under no obligation to help a 78-year-old American president fulfill a fanciful vision of making America great again. Already a Gaza cease-fire has unraveled, Russia continues its war on Ukraine, Europe is turning away from America, Canadians are boycotting our goods, and a Chinese Communist Party that endured the Great Famine and the Cultural Revolution seems prepared to weather a few years of tariffs. Travel to the United States is down 12 percent compared with last March, as tourists recoil from America’s authoritarian turn.
其他国家没有义务帮助一位78岁的美国总统实现恢复美国伟大荣光的幻想。加沙停火协议已经破裂,俄罗斯继续对乌克兰的战争,欧洲正在远离美国,加拿大人正在抵制我们的商品,而经历过大饥荒和文化大革命的中国共产党似乎已经准备好承受几年的关税冲击。由于游客对美国威权化转向感到畏惧,与去年3月相比,访美人数下降了12%。
The ideologues driving Mr. Trump’s agenda defend their actions by pointing to the excesses of American foreign policy, globalization and migration. There is, of course, much to lament there. But his ability to campaign on these problems doesn’t solve them in government. Indeed, his remedies will do far more harm to the people he claims to represent than to the global elites that his MAGA movement attacks.
推动特朗普议程的理论家们在为自己的行为辩护时,总是指责美国外交政策、全球化浪潮和移民问题的种种弊端。这些方面固然存在诸多让人诟病之处,但竞选时拿这些问题大做文章是一回事,上台后能否解决却是另外一回事。事实上,他的药方对其声称所代表的那些人的伤害,远大于其“恢复美国伟大荣光”运动要攻击的全球精英。
Start with the economic impact. If the current reduction in travel to the United States continues, it could cost up to $90 billion this year alone, along with tens of thousands of jobs. Tariffs will drive up prices, and productivity will slow if mass deportations come for the farm workers who pick our food, the construction workers who build our homes and the care workers who look after our children and the elderly. International students pay to attend American universities; their demonization and dehumanization could imperil the $44 billion they put into our economy each year and threaten a sector with a greater trade surplus than our civilian aircraft sector.
先从经济影响说起。若当前访美人数持续下降的话,仅今年就可能造成高达900亿美元的经济损失,并导致数以万计的就业岗位消失。关税政策将推高物价,如果大规模驱逐从事农作物采摘、建造房屋和看护老人儿童的移民劳工,生产率必将下滑。国际学生每年为美国经济贡献440亿美元——对这个群体的妖魔化和非人化,不仅危及这笔巨额收入,更将打击这个拥有比民用航空业还高的贸易顺差的行业。
The outlook gets worse with time. Why would other countries choose to invest in a country where the president roils global markets through social media posts, profits from crypto schemes that fleece ordinary people and undermines the rule of law upon which commerce depends? It’s far more likely that nations will make trade deals and forge supply chains without the United States while China and its growing list of partners accelerate a movement away from the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
随着时间的推移,前景愈加不妙。当一个总统通过在社交媒体上发帖来搅动全球市场、从欺诈普通民众的加密货币骗局中牟利、破坏商业赖以生存的法治基础时,其他国家怎会选择投资这样的国度?更可能出现的情况是:各国将在没有美国参与的情况下达成贸易协议并构建供应链,而中国及其不断增长的合作伙伴网络正在加速摆脱美元作为世界储备货币的进程。
In the short term, treating international relations like a protection racket could yield some bilateral transactions. Yet something more fundamental is being lost: trust. An America that, for all its mistakes abroad, guaranteed the security of its allies. An America that, for all its nativism, took in refugees and educated countless world leaders through its universities and exchange programs. An America that, for all its hubris, responded to humanitarian crises and showcased an appealing cultural openness. An America that people around the world liked more than its government.
将国际关系当作收取保护费的勾当,短期内或许能促成几笔双边交易。然而,一种更基本的东西正在丧失,那就是信任。那是一个尽管在国外犯下种种错误,仍在保证盟友安全的美国。那是一个尽管存在排外潮,却接纳难民并通过大学和交流项目培养了无数世界领袖的美国。那是一个尽管傲慢自大,却会对人道主义危机作出响应,并且展现文化开放魅力的美国。那是一个让世界各国人民心存好感的美国,虽然它的政府不招人待见。
The destruction of that trust will hurt us more than the rest of the world. This was certainly the case with Brexit, a project animated by the same blend of nationalism and nostalgia that has propelled Mr. Trump. Nearly a decade after voting to divorce Europe, Britain finds itself wrestling with a predictable incapacity to generate growth, a diminished position in its region and a growing factionalism in its politics. Fewer than a third of Britons now believe they made the right decision.
这种信任的崩塌,对美国自身的伤害将远甚于对世界其他地区的影响。英国脱欧便是前车之鉴——这个政治项目由民族主义与怀旧情绪所推动,而特朗普上台也正是得益于此。在公投近十年后,英国深陷三重困境:经济增长持续乏力、地区影响力不断下降、国内政治极化愈演愈烈。如今,认可脱欧决定的英国民众已不足三分之一。
We are following that course on a global scale. After 250 years of growing more diverse and more connected to the world, Mr. Trump and his cohort are imposing the staid insularity of self-imposed decline. The draining of democratic values from our national identity will leave America defined by its size, power and quixotic lust for profit: a place, not an idea. Roosevelt left us the inheritance of believing we were the good guys. Mr. Trump is eviscerating that pretense as cuts to U.S.A.I.D. have almost certainly caused more civilian deaths than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
我们正在全球范围内重蹈覆辙。历经250年日益多元化和国际化的发展历程后,特朗普及其追随者正在通过主动的倒退来实现闭关锁国。当民主价值观从我们的国家认同中流失殆尽,美国将只剩下国土规模、强权地位和荒诞的逐利欲望——沦为一个地理概念,而非精神象征。罗斯福总统留下的“我们属于正义一方”的遗产,正被特朗普完全掏空,几乎可以肯定的是,美国国际开发署预算的削减导致的平民死亡,将超过俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵。
Here is the good news: A nation’s relationship with the world is not defined solely by its government, particularly one as big and multifaceted as the United States.
好消息是:一个国家与世界的关系不仅仅由其政府决定,尤其是像美国这样庞大、多元的国家。
In the first Trump term, state and local governments remained committed to combating climate change, welcoming immigrants, protecting higher education and sustaining global ties. All those efforts will be harder in our new reality, but that makes them only more important. As Republicans often remind us, we live in a federal republic, and communities that maintain connections to the world will be better positioned to succeed than those that choose to follow Mr. Trump down the rabbit hole of isolationism.
在特朗普的首个任期内,各州和地方政府依然致力于应对气候变化、接纳移民、保护高等教育和维护全球联系。在我们面对的新现实中,所有这些努力都将变得更加艰难,但正因如此,它们才愈发重要。正如共和党人经常提醒我们的那样,我们生活在一个联邦共和国里——那些保持与世界联系的社群,将比选择追随特朗普进入孤立主义迷局的社群更有能力取得成功。
Our institutions also have a choice. Part of what has shocked the world about their capitulation to the Trump administration is the failure to grasp that the moral choice is the best path to self-preservation. Law firms can choose to care more about the law than whether a callous competitor will pick up some of their business. Universities can build credibility within an interconnected world instead of validating the lie that a few students chanting “Free Palestine” is more dangerous than a far-right takeover of academic freedom. The entertainment sector can tell compelling stories about a consequential era instead of algorithmically designed superhero junk. Billionaires can spend money on STEM education for girls instead of financing celebrity trips into a higher part of the atmosphere.
我们的体制同样面临抉择。令世界震惊的是,它们对特朗普政府的屈从部分源于未能领悟:道德抉择恰恰是自我保全的最佳途径。律师事务所可以优先捍卫法治尊严,而非忧心冷酷无情的竞争对手会抢走自己手里的部分业务;大学应当在相互关联的世界中建立公信力,而不是去助推一个谎言:几个学生高呼“自由巴勒斯坦”的口号比极右翼践踏学术自由更危险;娱乐产业理应讲述这个重大时代的引人入胜的故事,而非批量生产算法设计的超级英雄垃圾;亿万富豪们大可为女孩们的STEM教育倾注资金,而非资助名人进行高空大气层观光。
At a more individual level, Americans can demonstrate that they don’t want to be defined by Mr. Trump’s xenophobia. There are international students who fear for their safety; defend their right to be here. There are colleagues and customers around the world; American businesses should engage them in new ways. There are enormous shortfalls in humanitarian assistance; American philanthropy should fill as much as it can. There are Republican members of Congress whose constituents will be devastated by Mr. Trump’s policies; make them more afraid of losing their voters than the threats of a lame-duck president.
在更为个人的层面上,美国人可以证明他们不想被特朗普的仇外心理所定义。有些国际学生担心自己的安全——那就捍卫他们留在在这里的权利。同事和客户遍布世界各地——那么美国企业就应该以新的方式维系合作。人道主义援助存在巨大缺口——那么美国的慈善事业就应该尽可能多地填补。有些民众将受到特朗普政策的打击——那就让共和党的国会议员更害怕失去选民,而不是来自跛脚鸭总统的威胁。
The wrong way to respond to our current emergency is to promise, as President Joe Biden did, that America will be “back.” That ignores the enormous mistakes elites made over the past three decades and the political context that allowed Mr. Trump to return to power with the mind-set of an arsonist. We’re not coming back, and that’s OK. Indeed, it’s an opportunity.
面对眼下的危机,错误的应对方式莫过于像拜登总统那样承诺美国的“归来”。这种论调既无视了过去三十年间精英阶层犯下的重大错误,也忽略了促使特朗普以纵火者心态重掌权力的政治土壤。我们不会“归来”了,不归来就不归来吧——事实上,这其实是一个契机。
Our intention should be to return to the world as a different country. That requires something that Americans have not always done well: listening. We have much to learn. And ironically, we now have more in common with people in other countries living under corruption, autocracy and oligarchy. Perhaps this chapter in our national experience can be a moment when we find a new kind of solidarity with others who have been through versions of what we are now experiencing.
我们所需要的是,应该是美国以全新的姿态重返世界舞台。这就要求美国人学会一项并不总是擅长的功课:倾听。我们有很多东西要学。颇具讽刺的是,如今的我们与那些生活在腐败、独裁和寡头统治下的他国民众,反而有了更多的共同点。也许我们国家的这一段经历,可以成为我们找到一种新的团结的时刻——与那些和我们现下有差不多经历的人的团结。
The United States will never be a normal country, if there is such a thing. Like China and Russia, it is too big, too shaped by a revolutionary and imperial past, too rived by traumas that it has inflicted and absorbed. What Roosevelt understood is that America’s peculiarities could stir us to a more enlightened form of self-interest. As a multiracial nation connected to the world and committed to a set of freedoms core to our identity, we could never afford to follow the foolish path of “America First” — a slogan that amounted to capitulation to fascism.
美国永远不会是一个普通的国家——如果这种概念真的存在的话。与中国和俄罗斯一样,它幅员过于辽阔,革命历史与帝国过往的烙印过于深刻,其施加与承受的历史创伤也过于深重。罗斯福的睿智之处在于,他懂得如何将美国的独特性转化为更具开明色彩的国家利益追求。作为一个与世界紧密相连、以种种自由作为立国之本的多民族国家,我们根本承受不起“美国优先”这条愚昧之路的代价——这个口号实质上等同于向法西斯主义投降。
America’s strength has always been connected to the fact that it comprises people from everywhere who chose not to be defined by a ruler or to fear the future. At a time when power in the world is becoming more diffuse, our shifting demographics should be seen as a strength, not something to be feared or suppressed through a reactionary politics that shuts out the world. If we continue down that path, the procession of civilization will leave us behind, in a fearful, diminished and impoverished place. If we recover our sense of agency, we can re-engage the world as a part of it — neither hegemon nor hostile.
美国的强大始终与这样一个事实有关,即它汇聚了来自世界各地的人们,他们拒绝被统治者定义,渴望一个无需恐惧的未来。当世界权力格局日趋分散之际,我们不断变化的人口结构应当被视为优势,而非通过排外的反动政治来施加恐惧或压制的对象。若执意孤行,文明进程终将把我们抛弃在恐惧、衰败与贫瘠的深渊。若能重拾主观能动性,我们将能以平等的姿态——不是霸主,也不是敌对者——重新融入世界。