President Trump’s China tariffs are threatening Christmas.

特朗普总统对中国加征的关税威胁到了圣诞节。

Toy makers, children’s shops and specialty retailers are pausing orders for the winter holidays as the import taxes cascade through supply chains. Factories in China produce nearly 80 percent of all toys and 90 percent of Christmas goods sold in America.

随着关税冲击波在供应链中蔓延，玩具制造商、儿童商店和专业零售商纷纷暂停冬天假期季的订单。中国的工厂生产了全美近80%的玩具和90%的圣诞用品。

The production of toys, Christmas trees and decorations is usually in full swing by now. It takes four to five months to manufacture, package and ship products to the United States.

通常，玩具、圣诞树和装饰品的生产现在已经如火如荼地展开。从制造、包装到运送产品到美国需要四到五个月的时间。

Mr. Trump’s 145 percent tariffs have caused a drastic markup in costs for American companies. Most of the entrepreneurs that have shared their plans with The New York Times have not yet canceled their orders. They hope that the president will back away from the tariff brinkmanship.

特朗普145%的关税导致美国公司的成本大幅上涨。与《纽约时报》分享计划的大多数商家还没有取消订单。他们希望总统放弃关税边缘政策。

But the alarm in the industry is palpable, with the companies predicting product shortages and higher prices. Some business owners, citing how crucial holiday sales are to their bottom lines, are consulting bankruptcy lawyers.

但行业内的担忧是显而易见的，各公司都预测会出现产品短缺和价格上涨。一些企业主表示，假日销售对他们的利润至关重要，他们已经在咨询破产律师。

“We have a frozen supply chain that is putting Christmas at risk,” said Greg Ahearn, chief executive of the Toy Association, a U.S. industry group representing 850 toy manufacturers. “If we don’t start production soon, there’s a high probability of a toy shortage this holiday season.”

“我们的供应链已经陷入停滞，危及圣诞节，”代表850家玩具制造商的玩具协会首席执行官格雷格·阿赫恩说。“如果我们不尽快开始生产，这个假期很有可能出现玩具短缺。”

阿尔蒂克之家的老板拉里·戈尔德说，他别无选择，只能将关税成本转嫁给购物者。

For America’s Christmas industry, Chinese manufacturing is unmatched in its production speed and capability. Toy makers overhaul large portions of their product lines every year to adapt to the changing preferences of children. From materials to machinery, China’s factories are one-stop shops for importers.

对于美国的圣诞产业来说，中国制造业的生产速度和能力无可比拟。为了适应孩子们不断变化的喜好，玩具制造商每年都要对大部分产品进行彻底调整。从材料到机械，中国的工厂是进口商的一站式商店。

Kara Dyer, founder of Storytime Toys, a maker of children’s books with playset puzzles, usually places a big holiday order with her Chinese factory in the first two weeks of April to have enough inventory by mid-July. The Christmas holidays account for about two-thirds of her annual revenue.

Storytime Toys生产带游戏拼图的儿童读物，这家制造商的创始人卡拉·戴尔通常会在4月的前两周向她的中国工厂下一笔大订单，以便在7月中旬之前有足够的库存。圣诞假期约占她年收入的三分之二。

Ms. Dyer placed a small order of $30,000 worth of products before the latest tariffs, never expecting they would surge to such high levels. That shipment is en route to the United States. When it arrives, she said, she expects to owe $45,000 in tariffs. The shipment will provide the company with enough inventory for a few months, and she said she would probably raise prices at least 20 percent to cover the tariff costs. But she is waiting to make a big holiday purchase.

在最新的关税出台之前，戴尔的公司下了一笔价值3万美元的小订单，没想到关税会飙升到如此高的水平。那批货正在运往美国的途中。她说，到货后，预计将产生4.5万美元的关税。这批货物虽然能维持数月的销售，她说，可能会将价格提高至少20%来弥补关税成本。但对于大的节日采购，她还在观望。

“I’m going to hold out hope for another two weeks that the tariffs will be removed and I’ll be able to place the order,” she said. “But if not, I will have to put my business on pause. I will definitely not place an order if the tariffs are in effect. It wouldn’t make any sense.”

“我打算再抱着希望坚持两周，如果关税能取消，我就能下订单了，”她说。“但如果不行，我将不得不暂停业务。如果关税生效，我肯定不会下订单。那样做没有任何意义。”

In a Toy Association survey of 410 toy manufacturers with annual sales of less than $100 million, more than 60 percent said they had canceled orders, and around 50 percent said they would go out of business within weeks or months if the tariffs remained.

在玩具协会对410家年销售额低于1亿美元的玩具制造商的调查中，超六成表示已经取消订单，约五成的制造商表示，如果关税持续，他们将在几周或几个月内倒闭。

At West Side Kids in New York City, the shop’s owner, Jennifer Bergman, 58, is concerned that she may not have any toys to sell at Christmas. And the toys she can get her hands on could cost twice what they did last year, which would crimp her sales during the most important time of the year.

在纽约的西区儿童商店，58岁的店主詹妮弗·伯格曼担心圣诞节可能没有玩具可卖。她能进货的玩具价格可能是去年的两倍，这将影响她在一年中最重要时段的销售。

Toy companies are already marking up prices 10 to 20 percent, said Ms. Bergman, whose mother opened the store 43 years ago. She said that she would try to buy as much as she could now, but that the shortages were already starting. She had placed a large order of scooters to arrive for the summer. But the importer rerouted the shipment to Canada because it did not want to pay the tariff. She was told that she would get only a portion of her order.

伯格曼说，玩具公司已经把价格提高了10%到20%。伯格曼的母亲在43年前开了这家店。她说她现在会尽量多备货，但短缺已经开始了。原定夏季到货的大批滑板车订单，因进口商为避税转道加拿大，她被告知，最终能到她手里的货量恐将大幅缩水。

戈尔德说，去年，一棵2.3米的树的价格约为1000美元。他说，如果征收关税，同样一棵树的价格将超过 2000美元。

If the tariffs remain, Christmas will be like “something we’ve never experienced before,” Ms. Bergman said. People will be standing in line to buy things that cost twice or three times as much as before, she said. Her business was already under pressure from competition by Amazon, but she fears that the tariffs will deliver a final blow.

伯格曼说，如果关税持续，圣诞节将遇到“我们从未经历过的情况”。她说，人们将会排队购买比以前贵两倍或三倍的东西。她的生意本已受到亚马逊的冲击，但她担心关税将带来最后一击。

“I don’t think I will be in business for Christmas,” said Ms. Bergman, who added that she was consulting a bankruptcy lawyer.

伯格曼说：“我觉得圣诞节我没法再做生意了。”她还表示，自己正在咨询一位破产律师。

Nick Mowbray and his brother, Mat, founded Zuru Group in China, making an assortment of plastic dart “blasters,” water balloon accessories and bubble guns that are sold at Walmart and Target. He said retailers were not placing holiday orders. Zuru has cut its marketing budget for the holiday season in half, to $60 million, because it expects to be selling fewer products.

尼克·莫布雷和他的兄弟马特在中国创立了祖鲁集团，生产各种塑料飞镖枪、水球配件和泡泡枪，这些产品在沃尔玛和塔吉特有售。他说，零售商没有下假日订单。祖鲁已经将假日季的营销预算削减了一半，降至6000万美元，因为它预计销量会下滑。

Mr. Mowbray, a native of New Zealand, said everything was in “a holding pattern.” If the tariffs remain at 145 percent, he expects prices for consumers to increase around 50 to 100 percent.

新西兰人莫布雷说，一切都处于“等待状态”。如果关税保持在145%，他预计消费者价格将上涨50%到100%左右。

“That will be unaffordable for a lot of families,” he said.

“这对很多家庭来说是负担不起的，”他说。

Mr. Trump has in recent days struck a conciliatory tone toward China and the tariffs, fueling some hope among business owners that he may exempt industries that do not pose a national security threat.

最近几天，特朗普对中国和关税的语气有所缓和，这让企业主们产生了一些希望，认为他可能会豁免那些不构成国家安全威胁的行业。

Mr. Ahearn from the Toy Association said he was in Washington last week to lobby for a 24-month reprieve, which could give companies time to find ways to make their products in the United States.

玩具协会的阿赫恩表示，他上周亲赴华盛顿游说，希望争取24个月的暂缓令，这可以让公司有时间找到在美国生产产品的方法。

But even if Mr. Trump grants importers temporary relief, significant disruptions will occur as companies rush to fulfill orders. Shipping costs are expected to surge, similar to the frenzy during the Covid pandemic, when a shortage of shipping containers led in some cases to a tenfold increase in freight prices.

但是，即使特朗普给予进口商临时豁免，随着企业急于履行订单，也会出现严重的中断。预计运输成本将会飙升，类似于新冠疫情期间的乱象，当时集装箱短缺导致运费在某些情况下上涨了10倍。

Christmas is the busiest time of year for Aldik Home, a home goods store in Los Angeles. It generates more than two-thirds of its annual sales in the final three months of the year, selling artificial Christmas trees, wreaths, ornaments, lights and other decorations.

圣诞节是洛杉矶家居用品商店阿尔蒂克之家一年中最忙的时候。每年最后三个月的销售额占全年销售额的三分之二以上，该店主要出售人造圣诞树、花环、装饰品、彩灯和其他装饰品。

戈尔德说，“我不相信这个国家从中国购买圣诞树的人会支付145%的关税，因为根本不可能卖出去。”

Larry Gold, the store’s owner, said he had worked with a Chinese factory for many years to design Christmas trees. He places the order in January for shipment in June or July. This year, he planned to send seven 40-foot containers from China loaded with $600,000 worth of trees. The current tariff would require him to pay nearly $1 million at once.

店主拉里·戈尔德说，他与一家中国工厂合作设计圣诞树已经很多年了。他在一月份下订单，六七月装运。今年，他计划从中国送出七个40英尺的集装箱，装载价值60万美元的圣诞树。目前的关税将要求他一次性缴纳近100万美元的税款。

“Right now, we’ve asked them to hold up and wait,” Mr. Gold, 72, said.

“现在，我们要他们暂停生产等待进一步消息，”72岁的戈尔德说。

Last year, the store sold seven-and-a-half-foot trees for about $1,000. Mr. Gold said he would have no choice but to pass on the tariff cost to shoppers, which would put the price of that same tree at more than $2,000. He said that price would in effect “kill the product.”

去年，一棵约2.3米高的树在该店的价格大约在1000美元左右。戈尔德说，他别无选择，只能把关税成本转嫁给消费者，这将使同样的树价格超过2000美元。他说，这个价格实际上等于“给产品判了死刑”。

“I can’t believe anybody in this country who is buying trees from China will pay the 145 percent duty, because they’ll never sell them,” Mr. Gold said.

戈尔德说，“我不相信这个国家从中国购买圣诞树的人会支付145%的关税，因为根本不可能卖出去。”

At this rate, he said, he will not bring in the trees, and his store, which has been open for decades, will have nothing to sell during the most crucial period of the year. He said he would probably be forced to close, costing his 40 employees their jobs.

他说，照这个税率，他就不会进货了，而他开了几十年的商店在一年中最关键的时期将无货可卖。他说，他可能会被迫关门，他的40名员工将因此失去工作。

“There won’t be a Christmas industry here,” Mr. Gold said. “The product all comes from China.”

“美国的圣诞产业将不复存在，”戈尔德说。“因为所有产品都来自中国。”