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特朗普对华关税带来供应链恐慌,中国企业涌向越南

艾莎

2025年5月12日

由于美国对华关税超过145%,订单无法在中国完成,许多中国企业正试图将生产转移到越南。 Linh Pham for The New York Times

In the scrum to keep the wheels of trade turning, Chinese companies are pivoting to neighboring countries to escape President Trump’s crippling tariffs.

在保持贸易车轮转动的攻防战中,中国企业正转向邻国,以便逃避特朗普总统的严厉关税。

The hustle is on show in Vietnam. Factories that make everything from jeans to Christmas wreaths are trying to get there fast. The ones that have already moved are ramping up. The Chinese e-commerce platforms Alibaba and Shein are helping companies find manufacturing alternatives in Vietnam.

越南成为这场迁移潮的缩影。从牛仔裤到圣诞花环,各类制造商正在加速向该国转移。已经进驻的工厂在加紧生产。中国电子商务平台阿里巴巴和希音正帮助企业在越南寻找生产替代方案。

The race to get out of China has gathered so much pace in recent weeks that a social media genre of fixers has surfaced to offer tips on how to reroute goods through not only Vietnam, but places like Thailand and Malaysia too.

最近几周,离开中国的竞赛如火如荼,社交媒体上出现了一种新的顾问,他们提供建议,不仅帮中国厂家将货物转向越南,还转向泰国和马来西亚等地。

The cost of sending products to the United States has soared in recent weeks, forcing factories to find new trade routes. Last month, China’s exports to Southeast Asia surged as shipments to America plunged, Chinese government data released on Friday showed.

最近几周,向美国运送产品的成本飙升,迫使工厂寻找新的贸易路线。中国政府周五公布的数据显示,上个月中国对东南亚的出口激增,而对美国的出口大幅下降。

While Mr. Trump has imposed 145 percent tariffs on China, he has paused new tariffs on Vietnam and other Asian countries until early July. Factories across the region have gone into overdrive.

虽然特朗普对中国征收了145%的关税,但他将对越南和其他亚洲国家的新关税暂缓执行至7月初。在这个地区,各地的工厂都在超负荷运转。

“It feels like everybody is rushing to find a Vietnamese partner,” said Vu Manh Hung, who owns seven factories in northern Vietnam and was inundated with requests from Chinese businesses.

“感觉每个人都在争相寻找越南合作伙伴,”在越南北部拥有七家工厂的武文雄(音)说,他收到了来自中国企业的大量请求。

They were hoping that his factories could take on orders that were now impossible to fulfill in China with such high tariffs. He did not seal any deals. But that was partly because his manufacturing lines were already busy, under pressure from American clients to deliver orders before July.

他们希望他的工厂能接受因高关税在中国已不可能完成的订单。他没有签署任何协议。但这在一定程度上是因为,在美国客户要求在7月前交付订单的压力下,生产线已经忙得不可开交。

This sense of panic in the Chinese supply chain is familiar.

中国供应链中的这种恐慌感似曾相识。

In 2018, during his first term, Mr. Trump’s tariffs on China caused many multinational companies to search for alternative locations to manufacture their goods. Those tariffs were not steep enough to kick off an exodus. Now, Mr. Trump’s tariffs are so high they have all but stopped trade between the two countries, even pushing Chinese businesses out of China.

2018年,在特朗普的第一个任期内,他对中国征收关税,导致许多跨国公司寻找生产商品的替代地点。不过当时的关税不够高,不足以引发企业的大批外流。现在,特朗普的关税如此之高,以至于几乎停止了两国之间的贸易,甚至迫使中国企业出走海外。

00biz vietnam china 02 tgjf master1050特朗普总统首个任期内对中国征收的关税引发了许多公司寻找其他生产地。

For many Chinese companies, Vietnam is both a long-term solution and short-term fix. The countries share a border, and Vietnam has a large population of young people willing to do grinding factory work.

对许多中国企业来说,越南既是权宜之计,也是长期之选。中越两国接壤,越南有大量的年轻人愿意从事繁重的工厂工作。

But there are challenges for Vietnam.

但是越南也面临着祝多挑战。

Along with the dozens of other countries whose tariffs are on hold, Vietnam is trying to work through a trade deal with American officials who want to limit China’s use of Vietnam as an alternative way into the United States for exports.

与其他几十个关税暂缓的国家一样,越南正试图与美国官员达成一项贸易协议,美国官员希望限制中国利用越南作为向美国出口的替代途径。

During the first U.S.-Chinese tariff war, Chinese companies built factories in Vietnam. Many of those factories are now ramping up orders. One of them is QIS Sport Goods, which opened operations in Vietnam in 2019.

在第一次美中关税战争期间,一些中国公司到越南建厂。现在,许多这样的工厂正在增加订单。其中之一是科斯运动器材有限公司,该公司于2019年在越南投产。

“We are stronger now, and we can offer competitive prices to customers,” said Nguyen Jan, who is Vietnamese and joined the company three years ago. “Everything has been busier.”

“我们现在更强大了,我们可以为客户提供有竞争力的价格,”三年前加入该公司的越南人阮简(音)说。“一切都更忙了。”

QIS Sport Goods makes water sporting products like kickboards, surfboards and stand-up paddle boards at two factories, one in the southern Chinese city of Dongguan and another in northern Vietnam.

科斯运动器材有限公司在中国南部城市东莞和越南北部各有一家工厂,生产踢水板、冲浪板和桨板等水上运动产品。

The company employs around 150 people in China and 400 in Vietnam, where it is hustling to hire more.

该公司在中国约有150名员工,在越南有400名员工,并且正努力在越南招聘更多人手。

Another Chinese company, Dongguan Box, recently completed a production line in its Vietnamese factory just for its American customers like Tiffany & Company and Hallmark.

另一家中国公司Dongguan Box最近在其越南工厂建成了一条生产线,专门为蒂芙尼公司和贺曼等美国客户服务。

Rita Peng, the marketing manager, said the calls from her American customers started coming in April, when Mr. Trump began to escalate tariffs on Chinese goods. They asked: Could she quickly shift their production to Vietnam?

营销经理丽塔·彭(音)表示,她的美国客户从4月开始纷纷打来电话,当时特朗普开始提高对中国商品的关税。他们问:她能迅速把生产转移到越南吗?

She was happy to oblige, but Ms. Peng said the change made little sense to her. Picking up an elaborate red gift box with a paper flower and a two-sided opening, she explained why.

她很乐意积极配合,但她说,这种改变对她来说不大合理。她拿起一个精致的红色礼品盒,里面有一朵纸花和双面开口,她解释了原因。

00biz vietnam china 03 tgjf master1050在越南,员工在生产线上准备乐高包装。

“If I make this in China, this box is very easy to make,” she said. “Very easy. But if I make this whole box in Vietnam, the cost will be very high.”

“如果我在中国做这个,这个盒子很容易做,”她说。“非常容易。但如果我在越南做一整个盒子,成本会非常高。”

A box that costs $1 to make in China costs $1.20 in Vietnam, she said, mostly because she needs to ship the raw materials. She said her clients still wanted her to use her Chinese factories to fill orders going to Europe.

她说,一个在中国制作成本为一美元的盒子,在越南的成本为1.2美元,主要是因为需要运输原材料。她说,她的客户仍然希望她利用她在中国的工厂来完成发往欧洲的订单。

Dongguan Box used to have 1,000 workers in China, but that number has been cut down to 200. In Vietnam, there are now 600 workers. But Ms. Peng said she was optimistic and thought that the situation was only temporary.

Dongguan Box以前在中国有1000名工人,现在已减少到200人。它在越南现在有600名工人。但彭瑞东表示,她持乐观态度,认为这种情况只是暂时的。

“I believe the U.S. will solve these problems soon,” she said.

她说:“我相信美国很快就会解决这些问题。”

E-commerce platforms are doing their part to help Chinese factories find substitutes.

电商平台正在尽自己的一份力,帮助中国工厂寻找替代方案。

The fast fashion platform Shein is offering incentives to Chinese factories to help with the cost of moving to Vietnam, according to one factory owner. And the e-commerce giant Alibaba, which helps merchants find business partners, has dispatched employees in Vietnam to help businesses find alternatives to China before the pause on tariffs in Vietnam ends, a Vietnamese account manager at Alibaba said.

据一位工厂老板说,快时尚平台希音正在向中国工厂提供激励措施,帮助它们降低搬到越南的成本。帮助商家寻找商业伙伴的电子商务巨头阿里巴巴的一位越南客户经理说,该公司已经向越南派遣了团队,帮助企业在越南关税宽限期结束之前,寻找中国之外的选择。

Shein did not respond to a request for comment.

希音没有回应置评请求。

On Chinese social media, a flurry of agents have cropped up offering tips on how to skirt trade rules. For instance, one recent post on Xiaohongshu, the Chinese app also known as RedNote, outlined how to hide a product’s made-in-China origin by shipping it to Malaysia or another nearby country and repackaging it before sending it to the United States.

在中国的社交媒体上涌现出各方人士,提供如何规避贸易规则的攻略。例如,中国应用程序小红书最近发布的一篇帖子概述了如何隐藏产品的中国制造原产地,方法是将产品运往马来西亚或其他邻近国家,重新包装后再发往美国。

“Folks, the high tariffs imposed by the United States on China have reached an astonishing level,” the post said. “But it can’t stump us smart folks.”

“宝子们,美国对华关税达到惊人的145%,”帖子写道。“但也难不倒我们这些大聪明。”

00biz vietnam china 04 tgjf master1050越南是中国的南部邻国,拥有大量愿意从事繁重工厂工作的年轻人。

The interest in Vietnam was evident recently in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou. Nie Shiwen, who owns a garment factory, said some of his peers had started to expand in Vietnam. For now, he has decided against doing this because of the logistics of getting fabric and other materials to Vietnam, which can take weeks.

最近,中国南方城市广州对越南的兴趣很明显。拥有一家服装厂的聂世文(音)说,他的一些同行已经开始在越南布局。目前,他决定暂不这么做,因为把面料和其他材料运到越南的物流过程可能需要数周时间。

“Nowhere is as fast as China,” Mr. Nie said.

“没有哪个国家的速度比得上中国,”聂世文说。

But Jia Yue Technology, a Chinese company that makes Christmas ribbons, stockings, wreaths and gift bags, has already made the leap to Vietnam. Over the past three years it has shifted more than half its production from China, said Jack Xu, who was acting as a translator for a company representative at a trade fair in Ho Chi Minh City. And now it is mulling whether to do more in Vietnam because most of Jia Yue’s customers are in the United States.

但是,生产圣诞彩带、圣诞袜、圣诞花环和圣诞礼品袋的中国企业嘉悦科技(音)早已在越南布局。在过去三年里,该公司已将一半以上的生产从中国转移出去,在胡志明市的一个贸易博览会上为公司代表担任翻译的杰克·徐(音)说。现在,该公司正在考虑是否在越南开展更多业务,因为公司的大多数客户都在美国。

“You know Christmas items,” Mr. Xu said, pointing to a wall of green, plastic wreaths. “Americans, they need it!”

“圣诞节这些东西,”杰克·徐指着挂满了一面墙的绿色塑料花环说。“美国人,他们需要这些!”

Mr. Xu said he was confident that Jia Yue Technology would be able to weather the trade war since it had a foot in both countries. But he said he hoped that China and the United States could come to a deal.

杰克·徐表示,他相信嘉悦科技能够经受住贸易战的考验,因为它在这两个国家都有产能布局。但他表示,他希望中国和美国能够达成协议。

“For most Chinese, we still want to sell things to Americans,” Mr. Xu said.

“对大多数中国人来说,我们还是想把东西卖给美国人,”杰克·徐说。

Tung Ngo自胡志明市、Zixu Wang自香港、Meaghan Tobin和Siyi Zhao自广州对本文有报道贡献。

艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是《纽约时报》上海分社社长,报道中国经济和社会新闻。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

点击查看本文英文版。

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