President Trump has long reveled in his reputation as a maximalist, issuing a huge demand, creating a crisis and setting off a high-pressure negotiation.

特朗普总统长期以来陶醉于自己作为最大化主义者的名声，他会先抛出一个极高的要求，制造一场危机，然后开启一场高压谈判。

But increasingly often, he ends up backing down and simply declaring a win. His opponents appear to be catching on, sharpening their tactics based on Mr. Trump’s patterns and his unapologetically transactional attitude toward diplomacy.

但越来越常见到的情况是，他最终会退缩，然后直接宣称自己赢了。他的对手似乎已经洞悉了他的套路，他们根据特朗普的行事模式及其毫无顾忌地将外交当做一场生意的态度，精心调整了自己的策略。

The dynamic has played out repeatedly in recent weeks as Mr. Trump backed off, to varying degrees, on his plans to transform Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East,” turn Canada into the 51st state and beat China into submission with tariffs.

这种情况在最近几周反复出现。特朗普在不同程度上放弃了将加沙变成“中东蔚蓝海岸”的计划、把加拿大变成美国第51个州的打算，以及用关税迫使中国屈服的策略。

Now, two very different tests are emerging. One is over where Mr. Trump stands, with America’s biggest allies or with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, on preserving Ukraine’s sovereignty and safety in any cease-fire deal. The other, with Iran, may determine whether he is really willing to stand aside and let Israel bomb Iran — or join in, despite the risks — if he cannot extract a better nuclear deal than what President Barack Obama got, and cut off Iran’s pathway to a bomb.

如今出现了两种截然不同的考验。其一关乎特朗普的立场，在维护乌克兰主权和安全的停火协议上，他是站在美国最大的盟友一边，还是站在俄罗斯总统普京一边。其二与伊朗有关，如果他无法达成比奥巴马总统更好的核协议，切断伊朗获得核弹的途径，他是否真的愿意撒手不管，任由以色列轰炸伊朗——或者不顾风险，参与到以色列的行动中。

Both those negotiations lack the numeric symmetries of tariff negotiations. Thousands if not millions of lives are potentially at stake. Both involve decades of grievance, dating back to the Iranian revolution and the breakup of the Soviet Union.

这两场谈判都缺乏关税谈判那种数字上的对等性。它们关乎数万乃至数百万人的生死。它们都涉及数十年的积怨，其根源可以追溯到伊朗革命和苏联解体。

And Russia and Iran appear to be honing their strategies after watching Mr. Trump in action. Emissaries from those countries are hinting to Mr. Trump’s negotiator, Steve Witkoff, that there may be some investment opportunities for Americans if the United States eases off its demands. Mr. Witkoff, like Mr. Trump, has a history in real estate.

俄罗斯和伊朗似乎在观察特朗普的行动风格后完善了自己的策略。两国使者向特朗普的谈判代表史蒂夫·维特科夫暗示，如果美国放宽要求，美国人可能会得到一些投资机会。维特科夫和特朗普一样有房地产行业的背景。

俄罗斯和伊朗的使者都在向特朗普的谈判代表史蒂夫·维特科夫暗示，如果美国放宽要求，美国人可能会得到一些投资机会。

China proved an interesting example of Mr. Trump taking a maximalist approach only to climb down later. And in that case, too, Beijing appeared to be watching and learning Mr. Trump’s patterns.

中国是一个有趣的例子，特朗普采取了最大化主义策略，但后来还是做出让步。而且北京似乎也在观察和掌握特朗普的行事模式。

When Mr. Trump placed tariffs on Chinese-made goods more than a month ago, he warned Beijing’s leaders, and those of other nations on the receiving end of his “reciprocal” tariffs, “Do not retaliate.” Defiance was useless. The best deals would come for those who showed up in Washington early, with a list of concessions.

一个多月前对中国制造的商品加征关税时，特朗普警告中国以及其他面临“对等”关税的国家：“不要报复。”反抗是没用的。那些最早带着让步清单来到华盛顿的人才能达成最好的交易。

President Xi Jinping of China ignored that advice. He matched the tariffs and matched again, until the figure on China’s imports to the United States hit an eye-watering 145 percent. For five weeks, Mr. Xi followed the road toward mutually assured economic destruction. Inflation and shortages loomed. Cargo ships turned around.

中国国家主席习近平没有理会这一建议。他以牙还牙，实施了对等关税，并且再次回应加征关税，直到对中国出口商品的关税达到了令人瞠目的145%。五周来，习近平选择了一条可能导致双方经济相互毁灭的道路。通货膨胀和物资短缺迫在眉睫。集装箱货轮掉头返航。

It took Mr. Trump roughly 40 days to back down, agreeing to an initial 30 percent tariff — still punishingly high — with no consequential Chinese concessions other than an agreement to work things out over the next 90 days.

特朗普花了大约40天时间做出让步，同意初步征收30%的关税——这仍然是极高的税率——除了同意在接下来的90天内解决问题之外，中国没有做出实质性的让步。

The climb-down was so striking that it set off a predictable market rally that has now stretched over two days, Mr. Trump’s ultimate measure of approval.

这种后退非常引人注目，引发了市场可预见的反弹，并且已经持续了两天，而市场表现是特朗普衡量成功的最终标准。

But it also clarified Washington’s goals. Ever since Mr. Trump began slapping tariffs on U.S. adversaries and allies alike, central questions have loomed: Were tariffs, in the president’s mind, a mechanism to reshape the global trading order? To force a re-industrialization of America, even to produce products it makes little sense to make in America? Or is he envisioning a new source of income intended to supplement taxes to pay for a government that for 30 years has spent far more than it takes in?

但这场关税博弈也让华盛顿的战略意图逐渐清晰。自从特朗普开始无差别地对美国对手和盟友加征关税以来，核心问题一直存在：在总统的心目中，关税是重塑全球贸易秩序的一种机制吗？是为了推动美国重新工业化，甚至生产那些毫无必要在美国生产的产品吗？或者他设想的是一种新的收入来源，用来补充税收，以支撑一个30年来支出远远超过收入的政府？

At various moments, Mr. Trump has suggested all three were at play. But it now seems evident that what really excites him is using the tariffs as a cudgel, and to make his minimum 10 percent tariff on all foreign goods look like a bargain, even if it is onerous to consumers. Everything above that number is highly negotiable.

特朗普在不同场合表示过，这三个方面都在发挥作用。但现在看来很明显，真正让他兴奋的是把关税当作大棒，让他对所有外国商品征收的最低10%的关税，看起来像是一笔划算的交易，即使这对消费者来说是繁重的负担。高于这个数字的一切，都有很大的谈判空间。

Over the weekend, Mr. Trump reluctantly joined another big demand, this one against Russia. It was issued by Europe’s top leaders during a visit to Kyiv, after they called the American president and agreed on the language. It gave Russia until Monday to agree to a 30-day cease-fire.

上周末，特朗普不情愿地会同别国提出了又一项重大要求，这次是针对俄罗斯。这一要求是欧洲最高领导人访问基辅期间提出的，之后他们给美国总统打电话并就措辞达成了一致。他们要求俄罗斯在周一之前同意实施为期30天的停火。

Mr. Putin ignored the deadline, betting he would pay little price. Instead, he ordered drone attacks on Ukraine, and offered a negotiating session with Ukraine on Thursday in Istanbul. Mr. Trump leaped to endorse the idea, abandoning the condition that a cease-fire had to come first, so Ukraine was not negotiating while facing a Russian onslaught.

普京无视了最后期限，而他猜自己不会为此付出什么代价。他反而还下令对乌克兰发动无人机袭击，并提出周四在伊斯坦布尔与乌克兰谈判。特朗普迅速表示支持这一想法，甚至放弃了停火为先决条件的原有立场，全然不顾乌克兰将在俄军炮火下被迫谈判的困境。

Mr. Putin clearly senses that Mr. Trump cares little about the sanctity of Ukraine’s borders or even who is responsible for the invasion. (Soon after taking office, Mr. Trump contended that Ukraine itself was responsible, contributing to the late-February blowup with President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office.)

普京显然感觉到特朗普不太在意乌克兰领土完整的神圣性，甚至不在意是谁发动了入侵。（特朗普上任后不久就坚称乌克兰是咎由自取，这也导致了2月下旬他在椭圆形办公室与泽连斯基总统的激烈争执。）

Much of the conversation in Istanbul will focus on the control of territory that Russia now occupies, and whether Ukraine has to radically reduce its armaments, and whether NATO needs to pull back both troops and arms near Russian borders. Mr. Zelensky has vowed to attend, adding to the potential for a standoff. As Stephen Sestanovich, a Russia expert and longtime diplomat who wrote a book a decade ago entitled “Maximalist,” noted after a recent trip to Ukraine, ever since the Oval Office argument “the Ukrainians have found a way to combine gratitude with inflexibility and make it work for them.”

伊斯坦布尔会谈的主要议题是俄罗斯目前占领的领土的控制权，以及乌克兰是否必须大幅削减军备，还有北约是否需要从俄罗斯边境附近撤回军队和武器。泽连斯基誓言要参加谈判，这增加了出现僵局的可能性。十年前写了一本《最大化主义者》的俄罗斯问题专家、资深外交官斯蒂芬·塞斯塔诺维奇在最近访问乌克兰后指出，自从在椭圆形办公室的争吵以来，“乌克兰人找到了一种将感激与强硬相结合的方法，并让这种方法为他们所用。”

But in recent times, Mr. Putin, getting with the program, has dropped hints about joint Russian-American energy and mining operations, tempting a deal-hungry president to get something out of a Ukraine agreement, beyond his search for a Nobel Peace Prize. Mr. Witkoff sounded thrilled with that idea in an interview with Tucker Carlson.

但最近，普京顺应形势，暗示俄罗斯和美国可以开展能源和矿业合作，这对渴望达成协议的总统来说充满诱惑，除了拿下诺贝尔和平奖，他还希望能从乌克兰协议中得到一些好处。维特科夫在接受塔克·卡尔森采访时对这个想法显得很兴奋。

财政部长斯科特·贝森特给美中谈判设定了一些有限的目标。

Now the Iranians are trying a similar tactic.

如今，伊朗也在尝试类似的策略。

After several weeks of conflicting statements about whether Iran could be allowed to continue enriching uranium, which can fuel a nuclear weapon, Mr. Witkoff said last week, in an interview with Breitbart, “we believe they cannot have enrichment, they cannot have centrifuges, they cannot have anything that allows them to build a weapon.”

对于是否允许伊朗继续进行可能用于制造核武器的铀浓缩活动，几周来各方说法不一。上周，维特科夫在接受布莱巴特新闻网采访时表示：“我们认为他们不能进行铀浓缩活动，不能拥有离心机，不能拥有任何有助于他们制造核武器的东西。”

The demands seemed pretty clear.

这些要求似乎相当明确。

But the Iranians contend that Mr. Witkoff took a far more gentle approach in the negotiating room last weekend, and did not rule out allowing some nuclear activity in Iran. Meanwhile the Iranians, according to several Iranian and other officials, have begun floating ideas for nuclear energy joint ventures, perhaps with the United States, perhaps with Saudi Arabia, their regional rival. The key is all sanctions would be lifted and Iran would preserve some of the capabilities that Mr. Witkoff, and in recent days Mr. Trump, has suggested must be mothballed or dismantled.

但伊朗方面声称，上周末维特科夫在谈判室里的态度要温和得多，并没有排除允许伊朗进行一些核活动的可能性。与此同时，据一些伊朗和其他国家的官员称，伊朗已经开始提出核能合资企业的想法，可能是与美国合作，也可能是与它在该地区的对手沙特阿拉伯。关键是所有制裁都将被解除，而伊朗将保留一些维特科夫以及特朗普近期表示过必须封存或拆除的核能力。

On Tuesday in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, Mr. Trump said he was offering Iran “a new path and a much better path toward a far better and more hopeful future.” Then he said: “The time is right now for them to choose."

周二在沙特首都利雅得，特朗普表示他为伊朗提供了“一条新的道路，一条通往更美好、更有希望的未来的更好的道路”。然后他说：“现在是他们做出选择的时候了。”