2025年6月4日
The U.S.-China trade conflict is quickly morphing into a fight over global supply chains, as the two nations limit the sharing of critical technologies that could have lasting consequences for scores of industries.
美中贸易冲突正迅速演变为一场围绕全球供应链的斗争,因为两国限制关键技术的共享,可能会对数十个行业造成持久影响。
The United States last week suspended some sales to China of components and software used in jet engines and semiconductors, a response to a clampdown by Beijing on the export of minerals used in large sectors of manufacturing. Both sides over the last few days have accused the other of operating in bad faith.
上周,美国暂停了对中国部分用于喷气发动机和半导体的零部件和软件的销售,这是对北京限制出口用于大型制造业部门的矿物的回应。在过去的几天里,双方都指责对方缺乏诚意。
The supply chain warfare, which comes on top of tariffs the two countries have inflicted on the other’s imports, has alarmed companies that say they cannot make their products without components sourced from both. And it has made officials in Washington increasingly nervous about other choke points where China could squeeze the United States, including pharmaceuticals or shipping.
这场供应链战争是在两国对对方进口产品征收关税的基础上发生的,它令一些公司感到震惊,这些公司表示,如果没有来自两国的零部件,它们就无法生产自己的产品。这也让华盛顿的官员越来越担心中国可能扼住美国的其他命脉,包括药品或航运。
In recent weeks, the airplane industry has emerged as both a weapon, and a victim, in this fight.
最近几周,飞机工业在这场斗争中既是武器,又是受害者。
The jet engine technology that powers airplanes, and the navigation systems that control them, largely come from the United States, developed by companies like General Electric. In China’s quest to build a viable competitor to Boeing, for example, it has had to source engine technology from GE Aerospace.
为飞机提供动力的喷气发动机技术以及控制它们的驾驶系统主要来自美国,由通用电气等公司开发。例如,中国在寻求打造一个能与波音抗衡的竞争对手时,不得不从通用电气航空航天公司采购发动机技术。
But a jet engine also cannot be made without China. Minerals that are processed there are essential for special coatings and components that help the engine operate smoothly at high temperatures, as well as other uses.
但是喷气发动机的制造也离不开中国。在中国加工的矿物质对于帮助发动机在高温下平稳运行的特殊涂层和部件以及其他用途至关重要。
Beijing restricted exports of those minerals, known as rare earths, in April after President Trump began imposing high tariffs on Chinese imports.
今年4月,在特朗普总统开始对中国进口商品征收高关税后,北京限制了这些被称为稀土的矿物的出口。
The move has threatened to shutter what is left of advanced manufacturing in the United States — including the work done by many defense contractors. In May, Ford Motor temporarily closed a factory in Chicago after one of its suppliers ran out of the magnets it needed to build cars.
这一举动威胁到美国其余的先进制造业——包括许多国防承包商所做的工作。今年5月,福特汽车暂时关闭了芝加哥的一家工厂,原因是它的一家供应商生产汽车所需的磁铁用完了。
The United States responded with its own tech restrictions. Last week, U.S. officials suspended some licenses that allowed American companies to ship airplane technology to China, as well as others related to biotechnology and semiconductors, people familiar with the move say.
美国以自己的技术限制作为回应。知情人士说,上周,美国官员暂停了一些允许美国公司向中国出口飞机技术的许可证,以及其他与生物技术和半导体相关的许可证。
At the same time, officials in the Department of Defense, the Department of the Interior and the National Security Council are accelerating efforts to find more domestic supplies of rare earths, including considering U.S. government funding for new mines and processing facilities, people familiar with the matter said.
与此同时,据知情人士透露,国防部、内政部和国家安全委员会的官员正在加紧努力,寻找更多的国内稀土供应,包括考虑由美国政府资助新的矿山和加工设施。
The supply chain battle has been years in the making. And both countries have been trying to guard against the other’s control of strategic goods by diversifying their own sources of supply.
这场供应链之战已经酝酿多年。两国都试图通过分散各自的供应来源来防范对方对战略物资的控制。
After Mr. Trump levied tariffs on China during his first term, many American companies established factories in countries outside of China, including Vietnam and Mexico. Xi Jinping, China’s leader, set out to make his country less reliant on foreign sources of energy and technology by pumping huge investments into factories making semiconductors, solar panels and electric vehicles.
特朗普在第一个任期内对中国征收关税后,许多美国公司在中国以外的国家建立了工厂,包括越南和墨西哥。中国领导人习近平向生产半导体、太阳能电池板和电动汽车的工厂注入巨额投资,着手减少中国对外国能源和技术的依赖。
Even so, the economies remain deeply integrated, an intractable reality as hundreds of billions of dollars in trade flow across the Pacific each year. While both countries are resolved to reduce their dependencies on the other for national security reasons, doing so will be expensive and painful.
即便如此,两国经济仍然深度融合,这是一个棘手的现实问题,因为每年有数千亿美元的贸易在太平洋两岸流动。尽管出于国家安全考虑,两国都决心减少对对方的依赖,但这将是昂贵而痛苦的。
Since 2022, for example, the United States has been steadily expanding a global system to regulate advanced semiconductors and stop the technology from flowing to China. The rules have been aimed at restricting China’s access to artificial intelligence and advanced computing needed to augment its military. But they have been met with fierce resistance from an industry that sees China as an important source of revenue.
例如,自2022年以来,美国一直在稳步扩大一个全球体系,以监管先进半导体,并阻止该技术流向中国。这些规定旨在限制中国获得增强其军事力量所需的人工智能和先进计算技术。但它们遭到了视中国为重要收入来源的半导体业的强烈抵制。
The United States has extended these export controls around the world, even forbidding companies in other countries from selling products to China if they use American parts, technology or software to manufacture them. While some foreign governments have bristled at these rules, many have fallen in line.
美国已将这些出口管制扩大到世界各地,甚至禁止其他国家的公司向中国销售使用美国零部件、技术或软件制造的产品。尽管一些外国政府对这些规定感到愤怒,但许多政府还是遵从了。
This system rests on the idea that the United States should be the sole global power whose rules other countries need to abide by. But for China, rare earth minerals are a way to challenge the American assertion of dominance.
这一体系基于这样一种观念:美国应该是唯一的全球大国,其他国家必须遵守其规则。但对中国来说,稀土矿是挑战美国主导地位的一种方式。
Beijing set up a licensing system that allows it to monitor and approve sales of rare earths, and magnets made from them, to companies worldwide. When Mr. Trump ratcheted up tariffs on China to 145 percent in April, Beijing responded by targeting shipments of rare earths, including pausing many of them.
北京建立了一个许可制度,从而可以监督和批准向世界各地的公司销售稀土和由稀土制成的磁铁。今年4月,当特朗普将对中国的关税提高到145%时,北京的回应是针对稀土运输,包括暂停许多稀土运输。
中美两国的经济仍然深度融合,每年都有数千亿美元的贸易往来。
In May, American and Chinese officials arranged a meeting in Geneva to try to defuse their trade tensions. The Trump administration had several reasons to try to strike a truce. Companies had been warning of the risk of empty store shelves later this year because of plummeting imports from China, and stock and bond markets were flashing warning signs. But it was China’s rare earth restrictions that appeared to put the most pressure on the United States to reach a resolution.
5月,美国和中国官员在日内瓦安排了一次会议,试图缓和两国的贸易紧张局势。特朗普政府有一些理由试图达成休战。各公司一直在警告,由于从中国的进口急剧下降,今年晚些时候,商店货架可能会空空如也,股票和债券市场也发出了警告信号。但似乎是中国的稀土限制给美国施加了最大的压力,迫使其达成解决方案。
Negotiators agreed in Geneva to lower tariffs. As part of the deal, China said it would “suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States since April,” according to a joint statement.
在日内瓦,两国谈判代表同意降低关税。根据一份联合声明,作为协议的一部分,中国表示将“暂停或取消自4月以来对美国采取的非关税反制措施”。
U.S. officials say Chinese shipments have yet to return to their previous levels. During an appearance on CNBC on Friday, Jamieson Greer, the United States Trade Representative, said that the Chinese were “slow-rolling their compliance” and that American officials “haven’t seen the flow of some of those critical minerals like they’re supposed to be doing.”
美国官员们表示,中国的稀土出货量尚未恢复到以前的水平。美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔周五在接受CNBC采访时表示,中国“在拖延遵守协议的时间”,美国官员“没有看到他们应该看到的一些关键矿物的流动”。
Mr. Trump was more blunt. In a post on Truth Social on Friday, he wrote that China had “TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US,” adding, “So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!”
特朗普则更直接。上周五,他在Truth Social上发帖称,中国“完全违反了与我们的协议”,并补充说,“当好人已经当够了!”
Lin Jian, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, denied the accusation in a briefing Tuesday, saying that China had “earnestly implemented” the consensus reached in Geneva. Chinese officials say it is the United States that broke the deal, including by issuing a notice saying that the use of chips made by Huawei, the Chinese technology firm, anywhere in the world violated U.S. law.
中国外交部发言人林剑在周二的新闻发布会上否认了这一指控,称中国“认真落实”了日内瓦共识。中国官员表示,是美国违反了协议,包括发布通知,声称在世界任何地方使用中国科技公司华为制造的芯片都违反了美国法律。
“The U.S., without any factual basis, has smeared and accused China, imposed export controls on chips, suspended sales of chip design software to China and announced the cancellation of Chinese student visas — extreme measures that severely undermine the Geneva Consensus and harm China’s legitimate rights and interests,” Mr. Lin said.
“美方在毫无事实根据的情况下,对中方抹黑指责,出台对华芯片出口管制、暂停对华芯片设计软件销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证等极端打压措施,严重破坏日内瓦共识,也损害了中方正当权益,”林剑说。
Daniel H. Rosen, the co-founder of Rhodium Group, a research company, said that Beijing recognized years ago that rare earths would be central to advanced technologies and subsidized the build-out of those supplies. The United States, he added, “horribly underestimated” the demand for them.
研究公司荣鼎集团的联合创始人丹尼尔·罗森说,北京多年前就认识到稀土将是先进技术的核心,并为稀土供应的建设提供补贴。他还说,美国“严重低估了”对它们的需求。
China mines 70 percent of the world’s rare earths, but it does the chemical processing for 90 percent of them. The country also makes more than 80 percent of the world’s batteries, more than 70 percent of its electric cars, and about half of the world’s steel, iron and aluminum, according to data from the International Energy Agency.
中国开采了世界上70%的稀土,但全球90%的稀土是由中国进行化学加工的。根据国际能源署的数据,中国还生产了全球80%以上的电池、70%以上的电动汽车,以及全球约一半的钢铝。
Securing an alternative supply would likely require the United States to invest hundreds of billions of dollars, Mr. Rosen said, and cooperation with global partners who were willing to work to set up supply chains outside of China.
罗森说,确保替代供应可能需要美国投资数千亿美元,并与愿意在中国以外建立供应链的全球伙伴合作。
“It’s going to be expensive,” he said. “We have a long way to go.”
“会很昂贵,”他说。“我们还有很长的路要走。”