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“特朗普时代”迈入第二个十年:他如何主宰当代美国

PETER BAKER

2025年6月17日

The trip down that escalator took less than 30 seconds, but it opened a much longer journey for the man and his country.

搭乘那部自动扶梯下来的用时不足30秒,但由此为他和他的国家开启的一段旅程,却要长久得多。

It has been 10 years now, as of Monday, since Donald J. Trump descended to the lobby of his namesake tower to announce his campaign for president. Ten years of jaw-dropping, woke-busting, scandal-defying, status quo-smashing politics that have transformed America for good or ill in profoundly fundamental ways.

十年前的这个周一,特朗普从以他的名字命名的大厦的自动扶梯下到大堂,宣布竞选总统。在这十年令人瞠目结舌的政治生涯里,他声讨觉醒主义,颠覆常态,视缠身的丑闻如无物,以深刻而根本的方式改变了美国——无论这种改变是好是坏。

In those 10 years, Mr. Trump has come to define his age in a way rarely seen in America, more so than any president of the past century other than Franklin D. Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan, even though he has never had anywhere near their broad public support. Somehow the most unpopular president in the history of polling has translated the backing of a minority of Americans into the most consequential political force of modern times, rewriting all of the rules along the way.

特朗普在十年间以一种这个国家罕见的方式定义了这个时代,影响力超越了上世纪除罗斯福和里根之外任何一位总统,即便他从未获得过他们那样的广泛公众支持。这位在民调历史上最不受欢迎的总统以某种方式将少数美国人的支持转化为现代最具影响力的政治力量,并在此过程中改写了所有政治规则。

In a sense, it does not matter that Mr. Trump has actually occupied the White House for less than half of that 10 years. He has shaped and influenced the national discourse since June 16, 2015, whether in office or not. Every issue, every dispute, every conversation on the national level in that time, it seems, has revolved around him.

从某种意义上说,特朗普实际入主白宫的时间不足这十年的一半,但这并不重要。自2015年6月16日以来,无论是否在位,他都在塑造并影响着国家的话语体系。这十年间,国家层面的每个议题、每场争论、每次对话,似乎都是围绕着他展开的。

Even voter repudiation and criminal conviction did not slow him down or diminish his hold on the national imagination on the way to his comeback last November. The presidency of Joseph R. Biden Jr. turned out to be just an interregnum between Mr. Trump’s stints in power.

选民的背弃和刑事定罪也未能减缓他的脚步、削弱他对国民注意力的吸引,直至去年11月卷土重来。拜登的总统任期结果不过是特朗普两次执政之间的过渡。

自2015年6月16日“特朗普乘扶梯下楼宣布参选以来,他一直是美国政坛的主导人物”,民主党资深策略师道格拉斯·索斯尼克说道。

And power has become his leitmotif. Since his often-stumbling first term, when he was the only president never to have served in public office or the military and by his own admission did not really know what he was doing, Mr. Trump has learned how to wield power to great effect. He has claimed more of it than any of his predecessors ever did — and more of it, judging by the plethora of court rulings against him, than the Constitution entitles him to.

权力已成为他不变的基调。他的首个任期开始时而显得跌跌撞撞,这位从未有过公职或军职经验的总统曾承认他当时不知道自己在做什么。而现在的特朗普已经学会了最大效果地运用权力。他攫取的权力远超历任总统——而且,从大量对其不利的法庭裁决来看,甚至已经超越了宪法赋予总统的权限。

Whether he is on the cusp of dictatorship as his “No Kings” critics argue, he has certainly tried to dictate the course of society across the board, seeking to impose his will not just on Washington but on academia, culture, sports, the legal industry, the news media, Wall Street, Hollywood and private businesses. He wants to personally determine traffic congestion rules in New York and the playbill at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts.

无论他是否如“拒绝国王”的批评者所言那样几乎就要实现独裁统治,他确实试图全面掌控社会进程,不仅寻求将自己的意志强加于华盛顿,还强加于学术界、文化界、体育界、法律界、新闻媒体、华尔街、好莱坞和私营企业。从纽约市的交通拥堵规章的制定肯尼迪表演艺术中心的演出剧目,他都想亲自定夺。

And not through the art of persuasion or even the art of the deal, but through the force of threats and intimidation. He has embarked on a campaign of what he has called “retribution” against his political enemies. American troops have been deployed to the streets of Los Angeles to quell protests. Masked agents sweep through towns and cities across the country seizing immigrants, not just the criminals or the undocumented, but in some cases those with all the right papers who in one way or the other offended the president’s sensibilities.

而且他不是通过说服的艺术,甚至不是交易的艺术,而是通过威胁和恐吓的力量。他已经发起了一场他称之为针对政敌的“报复”运动。美国军队已部署到洛杉矶街头以镇压抗议活动。蒙面特工在全国各地的城镇扫荡,逮捕移民,不仅包括罪犯或无证移民,在某些情况下甚至包括那些持有合法证件但以某种方式冒犯了总统敏感神经的人。

“President Trump has been the dominant figure in American politics since he rode down the escalator to announce his candidacy in 2015,” said Douglas B. Sosnik, a longtime Democratic strategist who served as White House senior adviser to President Bill Clinton. “History will look back and say that we have been living in the age of Trump since then. Biden’s presidency was just a speed bump during this historic period of change in our country’s history.”

“自2015年乘扶梯下楼宣布参选以来,特朗普一直是美国政坛的主导人物,”曾在克林顿总统任内担任白宫高级顾问的民主党资深战略家道格拉斯·索斯尼克说道。“历史终将证明,从那时起我们就生活在‘特朗普时代’。而拜登的总统任期,不过是我们国家历史变革进程中的一道减速带。”

It is change that his allies consider a long-overdue course correction after decades of liberal hegemony that they say sought to control not just what Americans did but what they thought and were allowed to say out loud. He is in their view the desperately needed antidote to woke excesses, unrestrained immigration and economic dislocation. His Make America Great Again theme appeals to those who feel left behind and browbeaten by a self-dealing ruling class.

在特朗普的盟友看来,这种变革是对数十年来自由主义霸权早就该有的必要修正。他们认为,这种霸权不仅试图控制美国人的行为,更企图钳制美国人的思想与言论自由。他们将特朗普视为对抗觉醒主义泛滥、移民失控与经济失调的良方。“让美国再次伟大”这个主题深深触动了那些感到自己被假公济私的统治阶层抛弃、欺压的群体。

16dc assess 3 mthj master1050尽管争议缠身、冲突不断,并未赢得广泛公众支持的特朗普仍牢牢掌控着他的选民基本盘。

And he has succeeded to an extent that might not have been expected even a few months ago at shaking up the very foundations of the American system as it has been operating for generations, a system he and his allies argue was badly in need of shaking up.

而且,在动摇已经运作了几个世代的美国体制的根基方面,他取得了可能几个月前都预料不到的成功——他和他的盟友都认为,这个系统亟需彻底革新。

Since reclaiming the presidency five months ago, he has dismantled whole government agencies, overturned the international trading system, gutted federally funded scientific research and made the very word “diversity” so radioactive that even companies and institutions outside his direct control are rushing to change their policies.

重掌白宫五个月来,他裁撤政府机构、颠覆国际贸易体系、削减联邦科研经费,甚至使“多元化”成为一个人人避之不及的词,以至于即使不受他直接控制的公司和机构也都在急于改变他们的政策。

Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker who has written multiple books extolling Mr. Trump, said the president had ushered in “a dramatic deep rebellion against a corrupt, increasingly radical establishment breaking the law to stay in power.”

曾多次著书盛赞特朗普的前众议院议长纽特·金里奇表示,这位总统开创了“一场声势浩大的深刻反抗——针对那个腐败透顶、日益激进的当权集团,他们正不惜违法乱纪以维系权力”。

Larry Kudlow, a national economics adviser to Mr. Trump in his first term, said the president “has transformed American thinking on border security, China trade, working-class wage protection and business prosperity.” Moreover, Mr. Kudlow added, “he has fostered a new conservative culture of patriotism, traditional family values, a revival of faith and American greatness.”

特朗普第一个任期内的经济顾问拉里·库德洛表示,他“改变了美国在边境安全、对华贸易、劳工工资保护和商业繁荣的看法”。此外,库德洛还说,“他培育出一种包括爱国主义、传统家庭价值观、信仰复兴与美国伟大的新保守主义文化。”

But while Mr. Trump’s supporters feel freed from the shackles of a suffocating left-wing elite obsessed with identity politics, his critics see a permission structure for racism, sexism, homophobia, xenophobia, Christian nationalism, white supremacy and hatred of transgender people.

然而,当特朗普的支持者感到挣脱了沉迷身份政治、令人窒息的左翼精英的枷锁时,他的批评者却看到他为种族主义、性别歧视、恐同、排外、基督教民族主义、白人至上主义和跨性别者仇恨的泛滥提供了温床。

“He sells the past,” said Christina M. Greer, the author of “How to Build a Democracy” and a political science professor at Fordham University. “He sells a version and vision of America that was only accessible to some.” She said that Mr. Trump “has exposed America — a fragile nation that can be torn apart quite quickly by the promise of cruelty. He is returning the nation to its true origin story, one that many would prefer to forget.”

“他在兜售过去,”《如何建设民主》(How to Build a Democracy)一书的作者、福坦莫大学政治学教授克里斯蒂娜·格里尔指出,“他兜售的是只属于特定群体的美国叙事和远景。”她说,特朗普“暴露了美国——一个只需残忍承诺就能轻易撕裂的脆弱国家,他正在让这个国家回归到许多人宁可忘记的原始底色”。

The uncertainty about the Age of Trump is whether it survives Mr. Trump himself. Will Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the former Fox News host Tucker Carlson or other aspirants to the throne extend this era beyond its progenitor? Mr. Trump has scrambled old voting blocs and ideological scripts, but will he forge an enduring political and governing coalition?

关于特朗普时代的不确定性在于:这个时代能否超越特朗普本人而延续下去?副总统JD·万斯、国务卿马可·鲁比奥、前福克斯新闻主持人塔克·卡尔森,或其他觊觎御座者能否让这个时代延续到其缔造者身后?特朗普已经打乱了传统的选民阵营和意识形态剧本,但他能否建立一个持久的政治和执政联盟?

16dc assess 4 fvjq master10503月,施工队正拆除白宫北侧“黑人的命也是命”广场的地面标识。在特朗普时代,进步运动的短暂高潮已经消退。

His appeal often seems as personal as it is political, as much about the force of his identity as the force of his ideas. For a decade, he has been a singularly commanding presence in the life of the nation, invigorating to his admirers and infuriating to his detractors.

他的吸引力既根植于他的政策主张,也来自他的个人魅力,既源于他的理念所具备的力量,也来自他的身份特质。十年来,他一直是这个国家政治生活中独一无二的最具支配力的存在,让崇拜者欢欣鼓舞,让反对者怒不可遏。

The Age of Trump still has more than three and a half years to go, at least by the Constitution, and many tests ahead.

至少根据宪法,特朗普时代还有三年半的时间,前方还将面临许多考验。

Peter Baker是《纽约时报》首席白宫记者。特朗普是他报道的第六任美国总统,有时他也撰写将总统和美国政府置于更宏观的背景和历史框架下的分析性文章。

翻译:杜然

点击查看本文英文版。

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